High GDP but low GDP per capita – Time to give a public explanation – the Congress and the Opposition


If we see , India’s GDP is growing but the majority of the population is not prospering . Why ??

Let us consider this

The quarterly growth report card shows that Mining and Manufacturing contributed between 18-22 % of the GDP  in the Q 1 , 2010 numbers released last week.( Remember mining is concentrated in a few government PSU’s or some mining barons like Reddy’s of Karnataka etc )

Exports are roughly 13  % of the GDP

Agriculture contributes 20 % of the GDP  ( Supporting 60 + % of the population )

My view is that,  the decline in agriculture & growth in mining can be related directly to the growth of Naxalism , as one creates a naxalites and the other nurtures it !!

Rate of growth of yields per unit area in Agriculture  has fallen in:

Food grains from 3.39 % in 1992-93 to 1.39 % in 2001-02

Non-Food grains from 3.19 % to -0.57 %

According to the Economic survey between 1980-81- 2001-02 the capital formation in agriculture has fallen from 3.4 % to 1.3 %

FDI in Agriculture was never encouraged or focussed – Announcements does not matter Dr. Manmohan Singh ji ?

Between 2002-08, population growth has been 1.4 %  and the labour force has been growing at 1.9 %

According to the World Bank Development report

Between 1988 to 2008( 20 years ) as a percentage of GDP the :

Agriculture sector decreased from 30.5 % to 17.3 , whereas 65 % of the population depends on agriculture

Industry grew from 26.2 % to 28.8 % ( Population & people employable has been growing faster )

Manufacturing decreased from 16.2 % to 15.1 %

Services increased from 43.4 % to 54.6 % ( Private sector contributed to this )

Household final consumption expenditure decreased from 65.8 % to 54.1 %

Imports of goods and services increased  from 7.5 % to 28 %

Yesterday , in the Times of India , the Finance Ministry’s chief Economic Advisor said that GDP growth of 8.9 % in the Q 1 of 2010-11 was due to robust growth in capital goods and consumer good production

Does it not look like some Middle eastern countries , where the GDP is very high but GDP per capita is less,  as the high GDP is due to mineral oil wealth , and low GDP per capita is due to the fact that the oil wells are in the hands of a few royal families !! In India , Mining , Exports and trade is in a few hands and the focus , incentive and investment is maximum from the government !! For Agriculture , we all do not depend on the government but on the Rain Gods !!

BJP must act as a responsible opposition . The current state of affairs is not just a failure of the ruling front,  but of the entire opposition . Public demands an explanation from both !

What is government doing ? Bhopal Gas tragedy GOM’s is just an issue to divert the attention from real burning concerns of the public

Politicians are addressing 90 % urgent matters and 10 % important matters.

Time to act responsibly and explain or else both Congress and the opposition would be damned in the next election

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: office@rajendragupta.in

Urban voters can’t make a differnce in the current system- Rajendra Pratap Gupta


Why should the public vote ?

A lot many people expected that the voting percentage would be higher this time due to the people dissatisfied with the current system, and that the campaigns like Jagoree would enthuse voters. Just two days before the voting , I was talking to my friend Dr. Anand Trivedi , State President of Shiv Khera’s party, and I told him that , I did not expect voting percentage to be higher . Reasons are clear , those who are concerned are in very small number ( urban voters) don’t vote due to lack of trust in the current creed of politicians and those who vote don’t count or don’t think of the consequences of voting . For them voting is a trading business . Money for vote . Simple to decide .

Over the years , politicians have done little to enthuse voters or convince them that they stand for the good of the nation. On the contrary, people like Sanjay Dutt standing in the elections , crores of wealth disclosed by the contestants , statements made by Varun , Mulayam etc , too many political parties in the fray have convinced the intelligentsia that voting will not change the system

From my personal experience , I must state that these independents and small time parties will not make any big change in the election , they can just raise some awareness. I am sure that, most of these people will lose their security deposit. Also , that most of these people are ambitious and fight for who takes the lead . This is spoiling the equations that could have created an impact . In essence , these small parties are not united . Everyone thinks that he or she can change the system

Last time when Shiv Khera supported a few candidates through his party , I had warned him of losing security deposit and also gave him the logic for this conclusion.

People who vote diligently are amongst the 600 million people who earn less than a dollar a day. They are a creation of 50 years of congress misrule . These people don’t care about development or five year plans , they are concerned about today’s dinner and fun ( they rarely would imagine indulgence !! ). So politicians can get them for election rallies in hot summer afternoon by promising them chicken curry , buy their vote by cash for vote offer. Why are we so stupid to think, if these politicians can trade in crores for joining the government , why will they not spend 20 crores buying votes ? After all , you can recover in multiples by voting in a ‘trust vote’ . Which is now almost a common occurrence .

Politics is such a game that people cannot change it without media support and an proactive , effective and an independent judicial system. Both are handsomely paid by politicians . If the judicial system just set up special courts to try cases related to politicians & political corruption, the system could be cleaned in the next ten years.

I think that majority of the people have started believing that the system will never change . This is the death of democracy by suffocation from politicians .

What will Rahul Gandhi do to this nation ? His father used to say that out of Rs.1 meant for poor only 15 paisa reaches the poor . Recently in Gangtok, he said out of Rs.100 meant for poor only 15 paisa reaches the poor. All this , when his great grand father , grand mother and father ruled India repeatedly and divided it ? We must not forget that Gandhi’s were Kashmiri Pandits and they could not save Kashmiri pandits from fleeing from Kashmir. Infact , the biggest mistake that Nehru did was to take Kashmir to United Nations and internationalize it ! Same for Amethi , it has been the ‘parking lot’ for Gandhi family to cry , sing and dance before the elections and win . Whereas, after representing it for decades , the latest data of Amethi shows that 35 % of the population is still below the poverty line. If the Gandhi’s cannot save their Kashmiri brethren and constituencies they represent , What good they will do to India ? Now you can understand why people don’t trust politicians and why they will not waste their time to vote .

Urban voters don’t waste your time ……….Do something that counts.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email : president@countryfirst.org
Rajendra.india@gmail.com

Kamalnath Says, Worst for the Economy is over !- Is he in senses ?? Rajendra Pratap Gupta


Worst for the economy is over – Senior Congress Minister – Fooling Indians to vote ???

On 28th December 2008, I had written on this blog, that the GDP growth will be less than 6 % , I had also given the reasons as to why it would fall below 6 % for sure, when the government was firm that GDP growth would be 7.1 %. The fact is out now , and we our GDP has grown as low as 5.3 % in the Q3, 2008.

We will have lacs of suicides from job losers ! Earlier it was the farmers , now it will corporate people and workers who will commit suicides or commit crimes or suffer a nervous break-down. Why are we sleeping now . We just have 45 days – Please check the congress score card on my blog , They are a bunch of inefficient & dishonest people ! Can we entrust them our nation ?

As per the latest data ,

• India had an external debt of $221.3 Bn at the end of June 2008, 20 % of it is the short term debt, this will be hurt badly due to weak rupee .
• NRI deposits declined by as much as 1.1 Bn USD at the end of June 2008 compared to end – March 08 level.
• India’s foreign exchange reserves declined by 62.35 Billion dollars to 249.53 Bn USD as on Feb 20, 2008 from 311.88 Billion as on April 4, 2008.
• Agriculture is reporting negative growth at -2.2 % in Q3 , 2008,
• Exports have plummeted and people in export oriented companies are being fired every minute
• Industrial production is at a record low
• Fiscal deficit is highest since independence
• Sensex is at a record low in the last 40 months , Investors have lost more than 2/3rd of their investments
• Real estate sector is facing worst crisis ever
• GDP fell to 5.3 % in Q3 , 2008
• Rupee is weakest at about Rs.52 to a dollar
• Tax collections and revenue earners for government are dipping every day due to the above mentioned factors

Is what we call an economy of strong fundamentals ? When US , Europe and Japan sank into recession, immediately our growth story withered away, and we had been fooled to believe that India had strong fundamentals and we will not be affected . Is this not severe recession ?

At the top of all this , our learned writer of the book ‘India’s Century’ & also our Union trade and commerce Minister , Kamalnath had said just 3 days ago, that the ‘Worst time for the economy is over’. And just three days after the rupee is about 52 to the dollar and the sensex is on its 40 months low !! How clueless is our Union Minister ? Do we give such people to run our trade and commerce for the next five years ? If his words cannot last even a week , how come he writes a book on India’s century ?

We are into an unprecedented crisis , if we let congress win , I am sure that some of us will not even survive to vote !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com
President@countryfirst.org
Mob: +91-9323109456