We are ignoring the signals , and this could be dangerous


On October 11, 2012, i wrote the blog ‘From Emerging to a Submerging Economy’ https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/

I read the story in the Economic Times today, titled ‘Feast of Burden’ ( Page 10, ET dated August 3-9, 2014). It is almost two years since i wrote my blog and this story on corporate debt. Things are still the same , rather have gone worse . For example ,

The cumulative debt of;

  • Tata Group is about Rs. 2.00 lac Crore
  • Reliance ADA Group is about Rs. 83,000 Crore
  • Jaypee Group is about Rs.66,000 Crore
  • Bharti Group is about Rs.60,541 Crore
  • GMR Group is about Rs.37,788 Crore
  • Lanco Group is about 34, 876 Crore
  • HCC is about Rs. 11,150 Crore

I am not mentioning the rest of the groups like ESSAR etc…. Small and mid-size companies would further make the situation scary .

It is time that the Government asked all these companies to come out with a clear statement of how they are going to service these debts, to ensure that these companies do not end up creating a ‘cloud burst’ for the Indian middle class and disturb the economic prospects of this developing country

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

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BJP : The Reform Within


BJP : The Reform Within

 

The first reform that the BJP has to undertake is reform within: the way its leaders conduct themselves within the party, in the government and with the public. Leaders would do well to remember that power flows through you and not from you. Politicians tend to forget that the public has chosen them to serve as servants and not as masters, and that the power that flows through them can start flowing through any other leader. See how many cabinet ministers lost, in the 2014 elections.

A minister’s personal assistant complained: “people come from the minister’s constituency, congratulating him for a scheme that is a total failure and no one dares to tell him the truth. He takes the praise at face value and continues to expand the scheme, unaware of the ground level talk’. Be careful of praise and encourage people around you to speak the truth, even if it is unpleasant.

Seek Out Honest Feedback

Ideally, the party should set up an internal team that critically examines the government’s functioning and gives feedback to the party high command before it is too late. Another big problem with the senior party leaders is that they seem to ‘know everything’ and are not interested to listen, but like lecturing.

If this does not change, the leaders don’t learn anything new, but only share what they know. So there is no value addition to their knowledge. Leaders must encourage others to speak and listen carefully. But the public must also realise the importance of the leader’s time and be brief and to the point and speak the truth without caring for the consequences.

Servants, not Masters

All senior leaders and ministers must make it a point to visit the field regularly and that too, unannounced, and spend at least 30 percent of their work time in the field. If the visits are pre-announced, the areas and projects are decked up for the ‘show’ and the reality remains hidden. Surprise visits will reveal the real situation on ground, so that corrective actions can be taken before the media starts the post mortem, and the public sentiment turns to anti-incumbency.

Read as much as you can. A few leaders who have reached the top are voracious readers. ‘A good reader is a good leader’. Leaders must dedicate time daily to reading newspapers and relevant literature and books, to keep themselves updated on what’s going on around them A new breed of leaders are convinced of their own genius and don’t feel the need to consult anyone. In reality, it would be great to bounce new ideas off a senior leader or colleague, to take advantage of their wisdom and experience.

Politicians must be clear on what they want to accomplish in the short, medium and long term and must state their working principles for the team (office staff and bureaucrats), and give them enough freedom to take decisions within the defined framework and evaluate them for their deliverables. It would be a great idea to take the power of saying ‘no’ from the bureaucrats. For saying ‘no’, they should have to take approvals from the immediate senior. This one change will transform the way the government works.

Intent & Will before Vision

Also, it has been seen that the personal staff of ministers tend to be more ‘powerful’ than the ministers, and most of the time, lack basic courtesy while dealing with the public. This must be tackled on priority, as wrong handling can have a cascading negative impact. All politicians know that it is not possible to meet the expectations of every citizen in their constituency, but it is certainly possible to talk to them respectfully, and explain the situation directly, or through staff, if some particular thing cannot be done.

And, don’t work only in the fifth, pre-poll year, but work for all the five years that you have been voted for. A lot of leaders show off their clout by quoting internal discussions of the government or the party in the media. This negates decades of good work and weakens the organisation, and must be avoided at all costs.

People said that Narendra Modi has a vision, but they forget that, before the vision, you need to have the ‘intent’ and the ‘will’, and the vision shapes up automatically. Once you have the vision, you need to implement it, and there is no substitute for hard work. With Modi running the government, leaders will do well to learn and unlearn quickly, so that they deliver on the sky-high expectations set after the 2014 results Well, all the above will naturally happen if you have genuine intent to work for the people.

A lot many people come into politics for power and position but forget that politics is only a platform for serving people The Indian public knows what to do and when! Results of 2009 and 2014 clear any misgivings that our leaders have about the maturity of our voters and the strength of the democratic system and so, don’t forget that ‘prepare and prevent is better than repair and repent’

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

This article appeared in The Economic Times on 26th May , 2014 in the edit page

 

How India can claim being Polio-free ?


Source : http://www.livemint.com/Politics/XS6vPor5jFX3vKkaE7Ri6H/India-to-get-poliofree-status-amid-rise-in-acute-flaccid-pa.html
January 13, 2014
India will on Monday be accorded “polio-free” status by the World Health Organization (WHO), with not a single case of the crippling disease being reported in the past three years, but studies show the alarming rise of another similar paralytic condition that experts suspect may be a result of increased dosage of polio drops.
The last case of polio in the country was reported on 13 January, 2011, from West Bengal. Following the “polio-free” status, India will be certified as a polio-free nation by March, leaving Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria as the remaining polio endemic countries.
India’s dramatic turnout in polio eradication, though, has seen a consistent sidelining of the increasing incidence of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) cases. In the last 13 months, India has reported at least 53,000 cases of NPAFP.
Many health activists say the government, in its rush to get the polio-free certification for the country, ignored the increasing incidence of NPAFP.
Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) is a condition in which a patient suffers from paralysis that results in floppy limbs due to reduced muscle tone. While AFP is symptomatic of polio, it can be caused by other diseases such as the Guillain Barre Syndrome and nerve lesions as well—the primary cause fuelling the argument that India is not really free of wild polio virus.

Highest NPAFP rate

Government surveillance data show that while India is set to be tagged as polio-free, it has actually become the nation with the world’s highest rate of NPAFP incidence.
In the past 13 months, India has reported 53,563 cases of NPAFP at a national rate of 12 per 100,000 children—way above the global benchmark set by WHO of 2 per 100,000. WHO data indicate NPAFP cases have been increasing steadily since 2003, when the number was at 8,000.
In 2004, 12,000 cases of NPAFP were reported in the country, increasing dramatically to 25,000 in 2005. In 2007, the number crossed 40,000 and in 2011 the year India reported its last polio case—nearly 61,000 children were detected to be suffering from NPAFP.
“The increased number of non-polio AFP cases being investigated by the national polio surveillace programme (NPSP) has been due to an increased reporting of AFP cases following deliberate efforts made by the programme to increase the sensitivity of the surveillance system in order to reduce the risk of missing any polio cases,” said Nata Menabde, WHO representative to India. “The intensity of these actions was monitored very closely in UP (Uttar Pradesh) and Bihar—the two traditional polio reservoir states—to ensure no polio cases gets missed in these states,” she added.
Two doctors from Delhi’s St Stephens Hospital, Neetu Vashisht and Jacob Puliyel, who compiled data from the national polio surveillance project, found a link between the increase in dosage of polio vaccination and the increasing cases of NPAFP.
“Most experts will tell you the cases of NPAFP have increased because of better surveillance. This is bunkum,” said Puliyel. “As per global benchmarks, as polio incidence comes down, the rate of NPAFP should also reduce. Instead, AFP cases have been increasing steadily.”
“In 2010, the government reduced the number of pulse polio doses from 10 to 6. What we found was that between 2010-2013, the number of APF cases also came down. Our paper argues that other kinds of polio are being caused by the excessive administration of polio dosages,” Puliyel said. “Another proof is that states like Kerala and Goa, where dosages were less, AFP cases was also less. Majority of NPAFP cases are reported from Bihar and UP, where several immunization rounds are held to reach universal coverage. These are figures the government does not want to admit.”
The health ministry has denied NPAFP is rising, stating that the increasing numbers are indicative of good government surveillance. This, however, does not explain why a majority of the NPAFP cases are found in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. UP and Bihar have an annualized NPAFP rate of 21 per 100,000 children and 34 per 100,000 children, respectively.
“Our surveillance is very sophisticated and the incidence has gone because every case is being picked up. Even at the least bit of suspicion, we report the case because we want to ensure it is not a polio case,” said Anuradha Gupta, additional secretary, health ministry. “One must also keep in mind that AFP can actually result due to various reason other than polio.”

Polio’s global resurgence

“Even if the polio-free certificate was a legitimate success, it is just that—a certificate,” said Deepak Kapoor, head of Rotary International’s national pulse polio committee.
Since 2005, there has been a resurgence of polio in Syria, Egypt, Tajikistan and Israel. So, while India is celebrating the success of its polio campaign, the threat of a resurgence is ongoing and real, Kapoor said.
“This polio-free target was considered impossible a few years ago. Yes, everyone is aware polio is not gone forever, especially because India is yet to achieve 100% immunization and our routine immunization is still poor,” he added.
“Having said that, if India does not report a case until the end of March, South East Asia Region (SEARO) will be polio free and that is something to celebrate. The certificate, however, is a piece of paper. There are huge risks of importation as many countries like Syria, China, etc., have seen before us. We need to guard against that… The best defence is to reach out and immunize every child in India. Supplementary immunization has to be kept up until our routine immunization is up to the mark,” Kapoor said.
Gupta of the health ministry said: “India has become the first country to issue travel advisory concerning importation. Having said that, the WHO certification will not be affected by re-importation as it is about not having indigenous wild polio virus in the environment.”
India’s strategy to maintain its polio-free status involves phasing out the oral polio vaccine (OPV) due to adverse effects. To contain the “wild” polio virus, OPV uses viruses which are “attenuated” but still alive. This weakened version of polio virus activates an immune response in the body.
The India expert advisory group on polio has recommended that the country’s immunization programme switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine and only rely on the oral bivalent variant, reducing chances of vaccine derived polio virus infection. The switch will be accompanied with a booster shot of injectable polio vaccine. The WHO strategic advisory group of experts (SAGE) on immunization has called for a global, coordinated withdrawal of type 2-containing OPV by the end of 2016, and switch to bivalent OPV.
Courtesy: Mint

One chance to change our fate and of our Nation – Vote for India , vote for BJP


Please read this before you think about whom to vote for ?  We cannot afford to experiment with new parties or give another chance to a privately owned political party… We need a party with a proven track record of delivering results , and that is BJP ….

State of the Nation: – A Decade of Decay

Decade under the UPA I & II can rightly be summed in one line, the ‘Decade of Decay’, in which India had a free fall on all fronts – be it economic failure, diplomatic humiliation, failure of foreign policy, intrusions across borders, corruption & scams or crimes against women. There has been gross misuse & total denigration of government & constitutional institutions and this has eroded the office of the Prime Minister. The Government dithered by each passing day, casting gloom and doom on the country that was once under the NDA regime called the ‘Emerging Super Power’. In 2004, NDA left the Government with 8.1 % growth. The UPA could not even maintain that growth and mismanaged the country so badly, that the growth rate declined to 4.8 %, with the nation in a deep mess. We have lost a wonderful opportunity and have pushed the nation 20 years behind and rendered millions jobless and hopeless.

Economy mismanaged

CAD now exceeds even 1990-91 Level – India is revisiting the crisis of 1991.

Between 2001-02 and 2003-04, the nation had a pleasant experience on balance of payments, turning surplus for continuously three years, which was unprecedented after the post-independence period. All the gains of the NDA period have been frittered away in saving the dynasty rule through various election-financing schemes

Debt Trap – A result of Wrong policies

Total public debt on India is Rs 4,606,350 crore, and the debt per capita stands at about Rs 38,000

Rising NPAs – things are going from bad to worse

Economy is slowing down and the banks are under strain. Defaults have led to NPAs almost doubling from the 2009 levels. Rs. 2.43 lac Crore of estimated NPAs are in 40 listed banks as on December 2013. Rs.4.0 Lac crore is the amount of restructured loan under the CDR scheme.

Rupee Downfall

The Indian rupee, which was at par with the American currency at the time of Independence in 1947, has touched its historic record low of below 68.80 against the dollar under the UPA

Jobs – Shrinking job market

The employment generation actually decreased sharply between 2004-05 and 2009-10, especially when compared to the earlier five-year period.

In the five years from 1999-2000 – 2004-05, NDA created 60.7 million new jobs against the 2.76 million new jobs between the years 2004-05 to 2009-10 under the UPA. Now, India is going to lose more jobs in the coming years due to the wrong policies of the UPA

Poverty & illiteracy is the result of Congress misrule

416 million poor, 316 million illiterate & more than 600 million population without toilets sums up the outcome of the economic policies followed by Congress

India continues to be one of the hungriest nations in the world & accounts for 42 per cent of the world’s underweight children.

India’s Human Development Index rank has a negative trend for the time period 2007-12, which indicates deterioration in the indicators determining the Human Development Index.

Inflation: Price rise during the UPA years – Contrary to the Global Phenomenon

Whenever it came to low rate of growth, UPA justified that it was due to global economic situation, but the same cannot be justified for the increasing food prices in India. In November 2013, the Food Prices Index fell by 4.4 % globally, while in India, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was estimated to be close to 20 % in November 2013.

 

On one side, we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low, and on the other side, UPA is groping in the dark for the past decade to find a solution for inflation and deficits. Country’s growth that reached near double-digit due to initiatives of the NDA government has come down to 4.5 %, that too remained because monsoons played a face saver and there was a high growth in agriculture ( 4 %). Year 2013 had an unusually good monsoon favoring a good agricultural yield, but had the monsoons been average, the growth would have been below 3 %. It was the agriculture & not the Government Policies that saved the nation from a collapse!

The State of the Education Sector in India declining

Health and education are defining sectors for equitable human development and sustainable and inclusive economic growth of India.

Despite levying a tax to fund education and enacting a law to ensure access to education for all children between the ages of 6 and 14, the government hasn’t succeeded in improving the learning outcomes in India’s schools, because the UPA thoroughly bungled the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan initiated by the NDA.The quality of learning has either shown no improvement or actually worsened in the nine years of the UPA’s rule

Recognized as a critical element for India’s growth, the UPA government had claimed way back in its first term, that 6% of the GDP would be spent on education, which is a bare minimum for an emerging economy like ours. Nonetheless, the sector still stands at around 4% of the GDP today.

 

It is unfortunate, but the UPA government and the Ministry of Human Resource Development have surely missed the focus on Education and Employment, and the Research & Development expenditure has stagnated under the UPA.

Health care – India’s ticking time bomb

Healthcare is still inaccessible and unaffordable to the masses. Out of pocket spending is still high at 78 %. Goals set forth under NRHM have not been achieved and the scheme has floundered. UPA has failed to deliver health, or healthcare, despite a huge spending.

Agriculture Sector – Farmers and Farming Neglected

Due to lack of investment (both public & private) in agriculture, the share of agriculture in GDP has dropped to less than 15%. UPA has failed to increase investment, productivity & profitability of agriculture, leading to farmer suicides, migration from agriculture and widening the urban-rural divide. The Nation is left at the mercy of rain Gods!

India’s Foreign Policy – Alien to India’s strategic interests!

The past decade has witnessed, a directionless Indian Foreign Policy under the UPA I & II; of alienation and antagonism in relations with South Asian neighbours, & of international humiliation. India has been miserably failing in accomplishing its national interest due to poor diplomacy

Global Competitiveness

India has slipped to 60th position in terms of its competitiveness globally. This is India’s lowest ever rank and also 31 place below its peer emerging market -China. With regards to GCI, India is placed at 60th position out of 148 economies

India is ranked 134th position out of 189 countries in terms of ease of doing business

Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2012 ranked India at 94, out of 176 nations

In the global happiness-ranking list, India stands at rank 111-much after Pakistan (rank: 81) and Bangladesh (108).

Downgrade to downfall !

International rating agencies have been warning that India’s Baa3 rating is in danger of a downgrade, which has vitiated the investment climate. Any further downgrade would club the economy with junk-grade countries.

The fiscal profligacy of the UPA government has put India into a tight corner when it comes to repayment of borrowings. Government bonds worth Rs 1567 billion (Rs 1,56,700 crore) is coming up for redemption in fiscal year 2014-15 & In the fiscal years 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19, government bonds worth Rs 114600 crore, Rs 231200 crore, Rs 256700 crore and Rs 242400 crore are coming up for redemption, respectively.

 

Where is India headed ?

Erosion of moral and societal values and governance

Crimes & corruption are on the rise across the nation and scams have impacted all the sectors like Panchayat, Housing, Education, Health, Agriculture, Mining, telecom etc. No one is untouched from corruption in the UPA regime

 

Corruption has become a part of the daily life. There is hardly any day when we do not come across the cases of flourishing corrupt practices getting exposed in one form or another. The policies of UPA have resulted in fast degradation of moral, societal,and cultural values

Use your right to vote to seek a change for a better India

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Health Care will be transformed when BJP comes to Power


Health Services – increase the Access, improve the quality, lower the Cost

India needs a holistic care system that is universally accessible, affordable and effective and drastically reduces the out of pocket spending on health. NRHM has failed to meet the objectives and will be radically reformed. BJP accords high priority to health sector, which is crucial for securing the economy.

The overarching goal of healthcare would be to provide, ‘Health Assurance to all Indians and to reduce the out of pocket spending on health care’, with the help of state governments.

The current situation calls for radical reforms in the healthcare system with regards to national healthcare programs and delivery, medical education and training and financing of healthcare. Our government would focus on the following reforms in healthcare:

  • the last healthcare policy dates back to 2002. India now needs a comprehensive healthcare policy to address the complex healthcare challenges, keeping in view the developments in the healthcare sector and the changing demographics. BJP will initiate the  New Health Policy.
  • initiate the ‘National Health Assurance Mission’, with a clear mandate to provide universal healthcare that is not only accessible and affordable, but also effective, and reduces the OOP spending for the common man.
  • Education and Training – Will review the role of various professional regulatory bodies in healthcare and consider setting up an overarching lean body for healthcare. High priority will be given to address the shortfall of healthcare professionals.
  • Modernize Government hospitals, upgrading infrastructure and latest technologies.
  • Reorganize Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in order to converge various departments dealing in healthcare, food and nutrition and pharmaceuticals, for effective delivery of healthcare services.
  • Increase the number of medical and para-medical colleges to make India self sufficient in human resources, and set up an AIIMS like institute in every state.
  • Yoga and Ayurveda are the gifts of ancient Indian civilization to humanity and we will increase the public investment to promote Yoga and AYUSH. We will start integrated courses for Indian System of Medicine (ISM) and modern science and Ayurgenomics. We will set up institutions and launch a vigorous program to standardize and validate the Ayurvedic medicine.
  • Move to pre-emptive care model where the focus and thrust will be on child health and prevention.
  • School health program would be a major focus area, and health and hygiene will be made a part of the school curriculum.
  • Focus on Rural Health care delivery.
  • Senior Citizens healthcare would be a special focus area.
  • Give high priority to chronic diseases, and will invest in research and development of solutions for chronic diseases like obesity, diabetes, cancer, CVD etc.
  • Occupational health programs will be pursued aggressively.
  • Utilize the ubiquitous platform of mobile phones for healthcare delivery and set up the “National eHealth Authority” to leverage telemedicine and mobile healthcare for expanding reach and coverage and to define the standards and legal framework for technology driven care.
  • Universalization of emergency medical services-108.
  • Re-orientation of herbal plants board to encourage farming of herbal plants.
  • Population stabilization would be a major thrust area and would be pursued as a mission mode program.
  • Programme for Women Healthcare with emphasis on rural, SC, ST and OBC in a mission mode.
  • Mission mode project to eradicate malnutrition.
  • Launch National Mosquito Control mission.

Poor Hygiene and Sanitation have a far reaching, cascading impact. We will ensure a “Swachh Bharat” by Gandhi ji’s 150th birth anniversary in 2019, taking it up in mission mode by converging resources and building around jan bhagidari:

  • Create an open defecation free India by awareness campaign and enabling people to build toilets in their home as well as in schools and public places.
  • Set up modern, scientific sewage and waste management systems.
  • We will introduce Sanitation Ratings measuring and ranking our cities and towns on ‘sanitation’; and rewarding the best performers.
  • Make potable drinking water available to all thus reducing water–borne diseases, which will automatically translate into Diarrhoea–free India.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Author of BJP Election Manifesto along with Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi

Was Jawahar Lal Nehru the biggest Murderer in the history of India ?


Image

Murderer without guilt ?

Let us examine some reports about the number of people who died when Nehru was ‘celebrating’ ! Reasons can be any , but the outcome was only one : millions were turned refugees overnight , three million died and about a hundred thousand women were raped !  What did Nehru do to stop such acts, and  , did he issue an apology or take blame for what destroyed millions of families ?  How can Congress have the audacity to call Modi a murderer ? The real power hungry & lusty murderer India ever produced was none else than Jawahar Lal Nehru ! Congress has lost its right to be called secular, when it divided India on communal lines in 1947. 

P.N.: Inference above is based on the data quoted below, which is taken from credible sources only,  and so the views are not personal but based on the data reported publicly in Media over the past years .

The best figures available suggest that about 100,000 women were abducted, mainly in Punjab. How many more were raped and killed, or casually cast aside, God only knows. (http://expressindia.indianexpress.com/ie/daily/19970801/21350223.html)

India’s Partition was uniquely tragic, no matter from which side of the border one looked at it. Consider the following facts. It is estimated that anything between two lakh and 30 lakh people were killed in Partition violence. Around 70,000 women were captured, abducted and raped.   (http://www.deccanherald.com/content/270909/tragedy-partition.html)

Never before or since have so many people exchanged their homes. Slaughter sometimes accompanied and sometimes prompted their movement; many others died from malnutrition and contagious diseases. Estimates of the dead vary from 200,000 (the contemporary British figure) to two million (a later Indian estimate) but that somewhere around a million people died is now widely accepted. As always there was widespread sexual savagery: about 75,000 women are thought to have been abducted and raped by men of religions different from their own. Thousands of families were divided, homes destroyed, crops left to rot, villages abandoned. Astonishingly, and despite many warnings, the new governments of India and Pakistan were unprepared for the convulsion

As many as one million civilians died in the accompanying riots. ((http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/partition1947_01.shtml) )

Who divided India ?

Hindus and Muslims and Sikhs lived together in relative peace and harmony. Problems of India were not solved by Partition but aggravated !

The `history’ of Partition seemed to lie only in the political developments that had led up to it.(http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/b/butalia-silence.html)

It is possible that Mohammed Ali Jinnah, leader of the Muslim League, simply wished to use the demand for a separate state as a bargaining chip to win greater power for Muslims within a loosely federated India. Certainly, the idea of ‘Pakistan’ was not thought of until the late 1930s. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/partition1947_01.shtml

 Nehru, whose arrogance and insistence on the top job had alienated Jinnah, has been slapped down in a realignment of the Congress leadership: Gandhi joining forces with anti-Nehru conservatives like Sardar Patel and Chakravarty Raja­gopalachari (Rajaji). Nehru had been collaborating closely with Lord ‘Dickie’ Mountbatten, sent as viceroy by the new Labour government to “cut and run” as quickly as possible. But the Nehru-Mou­ntbatten axis is seriously discredited by a scandal about Nehru’s affair with Lady Moun­tbatten, including ins­i­n­uations that the bisexual ‘Dickie’ was a willing participant in a menage a trios.

The partnership of Clement Attlee, Lord Mountbatten and Nehru hadn’t rushed through a premature transfer of power to satisfy their own personal and ideological ambitions?

What turned this patriotic, pro-Congress Muslim into the sectarian separatist of the 1940s? Two of his recent biographers, Ayesha Jalal, a Pakistani-American academician, and Jaswant Singh, a former foreign minister of India, have converged on the same answer: the arrogance and intransigence of Congress leaders—Nehru in particular—and the pro-Nehru bias of the last viceroy, Lord Mountbatten. “Partition was the last thing Jinnah wanted,” says Jalal, and she agrees with Jaswant Singh that his demand for it was essentially a bargaining ploy.

Two of Nehru’s closest colleagues have laid the blame for this breakdown squarely at his door. Maulana Azad called Nehru’s statement “one of those unfortunate events which changed the course of history”, lamenting the fact that “he is at times apt to be carried away by his feelings”. Sardar Patel, too, criticised Nehru for acting “with childlike innocence, which puts us all in great difficulties quite unexpectedly”.

Nehru himself maintained that he had acted out of the conviction that partition was preferable to a loose federation. He wanted to be master in his own house, free to implement his socialist policies through centralised economic planning; and the Muslim League, in control of large, autonomous provinces, would have been an unwelcome brake on all this. Most important of all was Nehru’s visceral hatred of Jinnah, recorded with brutal candour in his diaries: “Jinnah…offers an obvious example of an utter lack of the civilised mind. With all his cleverness and ability, he produces an impression on me of utter ignorance and lack of understanding…. Inst­in­ctively I think it is better to [have] Pakistan or almost anything, if only to keep Jinnah far away (http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?287314)

We must consider that till 1940’s there was no demand for Pakistan ! So , it is clear that Nehru was the culprit and today, his DNA is doing the same ….. speaking about secularism and dividing the nation …

Also, let us not forget what Rajiv Gandhi had said justifying the mass murder of Sikhs after ‘dictator’ Indira Gandhi’s death .’ Rajiv Gandhi justified the carnage by saying that “when a big tree falls, the earth shakes”. http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/mani-shankar-aiyar-on-former-prime-minister-rajiv-gandhi-regime-and-death/1/138765.html

We don’t need Gandhi family led Congress at all .. Time to act sane and not repeat the history again . And while you are reading this , Congress is planning to spend over Rs. 100 crores on 125th birth anniversary of this mass murderer – Nehru ! (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/govt-plans-slew-of-programmes-to-mark-jawaharlal-nehrus-125th-birth-anniversary/articleshow/29781854.cms) 

Let us throw out the Gandhi’s , India cannot afford to have them anymore 

Strong fundamentals of Indian Economy


Please see the total debt , interest and principal payments by the Government of India . Still do you think that we can pull this country out of the mess under the UPA ? We need radical changes

As per data made available by the Ministry of Finance on debt vide RTI dated 13th May 2013 letter dated AAAD/COORD/ L(1)2012;  AS ON 31/12/2012

Government Loans :

Total multilateral debt is INR 2,401,829,740,367

Total bilateral debt is INR 1,046,418,091,740

Total Government loans ( multi-lateral and bilateral ) is INR 3,448,247,832,107

Non – Government loans

Multi-lateral INR 302,495,682,321

Bilateral INR 190,240,677,456

Total Non-governmental Multilateral & Bilateral loans  – INR 492,736,359, 778

Grand total ( Government & Non-Government ) 3,940,984,191,885

Total yearly payments of interests & principal

2011-12                                     2012-13 ( 01.04.12 – 31.12.2012)   Figures in 1000 INR

Interest                 2425686378                                 2028398390

Principal               34823428250                               24641868095

 

 

 

Can you guess the state of India’s economy for 2014 -16 ? Not tough


On 4th June , 2013 , I analysed the data and concluded that the Indian economy would grow below 4 % when most of our economists were speaking of returning to 6-7 % growth in the second half 2013 . https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/

Leading global organizations like IMF / OECD have given similar predictions about Indian economy after 4-5 months of my analysis about the Indian economy

The recent reports of IMF on October 9, 2013 cut the India’s growth to 3.8 % in 2013 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-09/news/42864491_1_world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-global-growth

Also , OECD stated on 19th November, 2013 that India would grow at 3.4 % http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/oecd-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-emerging-market-slowdown.html

On one side , we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low ( Mint , 16th November, 2013) and UPA is still groping in the dark to figure out how to handle inflation , deficits and govern this nation 

To me , the fate of truck operators & tractors companies and not the sensex, is directly related to the fate of the common man & is the right indicator of the nation’s economic health. Trucks are the means for transporting goods and thereby, the correct parameter to judge the movement of economy. Truck operators are exiting truck business ( Mint, 26th November, 2013)., which is an indicator of the negative economic indicators 

Sales of trucks dropped 29% in the first seven months of 2013, and truck sales have been declining for 20 months in a row according to SIAM and the existing truck operators are operating at 40 % of their capacity. Mint dated 26th Nov.

In my view,  this mirrors with the growth slowdown of the economy that was once growing more than 8 % and is now growing around 4.5 % ….. High octane speeches of returning to double-digit growth are fine , but when our markets and rupee move with the news of US quantitative easing , it is good enough of the proof, that the intrinsic strength of this country’s economy is weak and of a lesser weightage than just the good news of foreign markets ( tens of thousands miles away )  or the US quantitative easing !  

Small truck operators which constitute 75 % of the market are worst hit ( Mint , 26th Nov), and this must be good enough to sum up where have these Oxford, World Bank, IMF famed economists taken this country to ? May be, good rains can shower some temporary good news , but in the short-term and middle term , India has more tears to worry for than merry for this years good rains

No wonder, S&P downgraded IDBI bank debt to junk status . (Nov 26, 2013). More banks are under strain, but I believe that they would not declare NPAs before the next financial year to avoid disclosures that could add to their and the country’s woes !

Time to start the work on the new National Health Policy


Image

 Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President & Member

Board of Directors

October 27, 2013

Shri Keshav Desiraju

Secretary to the Government of India

Ministry of Health & Family Welfare

Nirman Bhawan, New Delhi – 110108.

 

Reference: Need for a National Health Policy – NHP

Dear Shri Keshav ji,

I am writing on behalf of the Disease Management Association of India – The Population Health Improvement Alliance. We have been proactively taking up issues with regards to healthcare policy & reforms in India.

On February 01, 2013, when you were appointed as the Health Secretary, people involved with the health sector felt happy that the nation had got its best health secretary!  Expectations are running high!

This communiqué is about the need for setting up a team to draft the National Health Policy. Since the last National Health Policy was drafted more than 10 years ago in 2002, a lot of things have changed, like;

  • NRHM was launched in 2005 as a flagship program focused on rural health
  • RSBY was launched
  • Pandemic outbreaks like H1N1 (Swine Flu) have been a surprise and have shaken the world
  • Rise of MDR – T.B.
  • Increase in the incidence of chronic diseases & the issues related to child health
  • Occupational hazards
  • High IMR/MMR & MDGs deadline approaching in 2015

Besides, a lot of other developments have taken place, like;

  • UID –Aadhaar number for the entire population have been initiated
  • Emergence of mHealth & telemedicine
  • Newer technological interventions for diagnostics and treatment
  • Emergence of Big Data Analytics
  • Also that, India is focusing on transitioning the healthcare system to Universal Coverage
  • Emergence of innovative concepts, like Disease Management, ACOs (Accountable Care Organizations), HMOs (Health Management Organizations)  & Meaningful use.
  • Emergence of the prominent role of civil society organizations in healthcare delivery
  • Role of social media

The 12th five year plan has often been referred to as the plan for health, and I believe, that it is the right time to set up a committee to draft the new National Health Policy by 2015. Even if the committee is set up in early 2014, it will take at least a year to do the survey and complete the policy and so, most likely, the NHP would be tabled by 2015 and would cover a period of next 10 years (2015-2025).

We are sure that you will consider our request seriously and initiate the process for the new National Health Policy

With best wishes and with warm regards

Sd/-

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

CC:

Dr.Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister, Government of India.

Shri. Ghulam Nabi Azad, Union Minister for Health & Family Welfare

Dr.Syeda Hameed, Member, Planning Commission, Government of India

Chairperson, UPA

Presidents of all the National Political Parties

Gandhi family , Congress core group & the UPA Government


Let us reconstruct a few events

Congress core group meets twice , discusses the ordinance to overrule the supreme court judgement on tainted netas, and sends it to the H.E. President of India to sign .

Firstly , there was no hurry to do so, as this could have been debated in the Parliament . It is another thing that Congress does not like Parliamentary ways of doing debates and democratically running the government . Well, that is a defect in the Nehru -Indira gene ( the same DNA in Indira Gandhi led her to declare the emergency and suspend the constitution and all fundamental rights of Indians) .

President Mukherjee got jittery as BJP was opposing this ordinance tooth and nail , and had submitted a memorandum to the President . AAP ( Anna fame party ) also got jittery and sought a meeting with President Mukherjee and requested that he does not sign the ordinance

Suddenly , the Times of India also realised that it was not taken into ‘confidence’ for this ordinance, and this Jain family run newspaper was left out of the deal behind the doors .So suddenly , TOI started a miss call alert campaign to voice the opposition of its readers against the ordinance ,and the number swelled to five lacs.

Rahul , who reads very less ( no, he has still not been diagnosed with dyslexia .His problem is, that he understands quite late and after he understands that ‘little bit’ , he goes into a state of shock and does not speak or speaks incoherently – this disorder is under investigation by neuro – psychologists – scientists ) . Suddenly was informed by his ‘closed group’ that the public opinion is building up, and it is like 1857 …..Mulayam has been given relief as CBI has withdrawn its case , and now Congress is giving relief to Lalu through this ordinance , and this could pose a challenge to Rahul -Modi contest and Rahul has not taken any ‘stand’ in the past 9 years of Congress rule, and this could be a ‘fantabulous’ opportunity to show that he can do something.

Rahul likes such innovative ideas, he dropped his can of diet coke and could not hold himself and rushed to AICC HQ, where Makkhan was holding a press conference ( he has been called specially from the ministerial group to do this ) , and Rahul’s tongue got the better of him …….. he intended to say ‘ This bunch of idiots ( Sonia Gandhi heads the core group of congress ) and the Cabinet ( headed by a headless MMS) discussed this legislation twice and still came out with piece of bull shit  …. tear it apart …… It was clear that Rahul was not even consulted before hand , after all , he is young and can do mistakes ( which he has admitted now attributing to his harsh words).

Deciphering Rahul’s sentiments , one can conclude, that the Congress core group and the cabinet are headless chickens and cannot think like this ‘game changer’ Rahul does . ( Remember his bee school lecture at CII, he can put Michael Porter to shame with his business lingo !)

It does not end here , yesterday , he went and told every one in media during his Ahmedabad visit ‘ I am not a reluctant politician as you all think’ . Now, media guys are also idiots before this child prodigy Rahul

Then , he said yesterday ‘ i am young , and i can make mistakes , my words were strong , mama told me’ …. so , he disclosed that he discussed this with his mommy …….at the end , dynasty , DNA and an individual have more value than this 1.22 billion people , entire cabinet and the AICC core group….. After all, you and i were not born in that family , it was one and only Rahul . He is superior to everyone !

huh….. what do i write about this grown up chap 🙂

Food Security Bill


My friend Manish Dureja helped me redefine the Food Security Bill . So this is what Food Security Bill stands for ;

Food for Party Workers
Security for Congress &
Bill for the Tax Payers 

I guess, this is the simplest definition

Food Security Bill – Another bill for poor and dollars for congress


Please ask the Hon’ble PM to give a statement on a scheme similar to the Food security bill launched with much fanfare in 1975 to reduce malnutrition . This scheme was called the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) . It has been around for the past 38 years and now again another bill to remove malnutrition ?  Despite this scheme being around for about four decades, the scenario is as mentioned below ;

It is a matter of serious concern that the mean per capita consumption of calories has never crossed the minimum threshold  for intake ( 2400 Kcal in rural and 2100 Kcal in urban areas), and still about 3/4th of the households do not consumer the minimum calorific intake (Dr.D.K.Taneja, 2013, p. 21)

Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) most commonly prevalent in India . 45.3 percent of children under 3 years are under weight as per NFHS -3.  Also, as per NFHS-3 , 33 percent of adult women and 28.1 percent of adult men have below normal BMI (Dr.D.K.Taneja, 2013, p. 301)

According to the information procured from the Ministry of Women and Child development via RTI through their letter dated 25 July 2013 ( F. No. 10-1/2011-CD.II(Pt.II)

Total money spend in 11th plan on ICDS was Rs.43829.53 Crore

Total money spent in 2012-13 is 15701.50 crore

During the 12th Five Year Plan, a total approved allocation of Rs. 1,23,580 crore has been made for the scheme. Any additional requirement of funds under ICDS Scheme can be met through Supplementary Demands for Grants and savings. ( Source http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=93731 )

I think food security bill means  ‘another bill for the poor and dollars for the congress’ .

This bill might be another money-making scheme in the name of aam aadmi .. Already, all the FM channels have been bombarded with advertisements for the Food security bill making the intentions of congress very clear that this is a poll gimmick

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

India entering a phase of recession


Recently , very few people noticed a four line news that , Moody’s Investor Service downgraded the so-called financial strengths ratings and the baseline credit assessments of;

1. Bank of Baroda

2. Canara Bank

3. Punjab National Bank

The outlook on Union Bank of India has also been changed to negative .

This is the first indicator of ‘Gloom & Doom’ that is set to hit the economy soon. Somehow , India has missed the recession in 2008 , but India will now enter into recessionary phase that is likely to last between 3 -6 years .

Somehow , the investments that came due to ‘overselling’ the India story like the SEZs, power plants , airports are fading off and most of the infrastructure companies are under a huge pile of debt. More NPAs and job losses will follow .

I see that not a single politician or an economist can put his head out and speak the truth that India is hitting a phase of recession ( probably , they do not know it , like the American crisis ). From a high of 9 per cent growth , we are already down by 45 % in our GDP growth . How else do we define recession ? Are we already not into a recession with companies laying off people every month and our growth slowing down by 45 % ?

Let us accept the situation and plan now. Else , India will be headed for an unprecedented crisis. I am not more worried with 2014 election as much as the rapidly falling economy . On many occasions ,i have pointed my friends across political parties that they would be better off losing 2014 elections than winning them , as there is enormous crisis to be faced, and a lot of dirty and hard work to be done to reverse the falling fortunes of this country and it is not going to be an easy 2014 for politics and politicians .

Let us consider this situation ;

India needs foreign exchange – USD . This can come due to ;

  1. Exports
  2. FDI
  3. Reduced imports

Now , exports might start shrinking or remain the same , so not much can be done on that front .

FDI comes in India for

1. Either setting up manufacturing

2. Investment in corporates / stock markets

All the money that comes in FDI needs to produce profits due to either exports or domestic consumption . Both are not going to happen the way investors look at ROI or IRR on their investments as the local consumption story is missing . India has already passed off 100s of millions of poor as ‘middle income aspirational class wanting to spend’ , and this was the biggest fraud of Sonia & MMS led congress government and 100s of corporates have lost millions of dollars every month and are now exiting India or slowing down

Only way the foreigners can make money is dabbling billions of USD in stock markets . So, now FDI’s constitute 11.2 % of GDP in India (2011-12) , and FIIs can play a spoil sport for Indian Economy and generate a balance of payment crisis in any trading hour !

Also, how i could i miss writing about another direct cash transfer scheme of Congress ! Party has got a new way to make money ‘ CSR spending’ under the new companies act .Now politicians can ask corporates for CSR spending and bang ! You know why this bill got passed so easily. And if i am a corporate and i wish to get a license or avoid something  OR  seeking favours like Robber Vadra,  i will give money under CSR to a politician’s NGO….. Wow , another MNAREGA, NRHM and a wonderful legal cash transfer scheme , So who says that XYZ paid bribes , now you cannot prove it , it was just a CSR spending . So, corporates , what are you waiting for , come buy your Rajya Sabha seat , it just cost 100 crores in CSR spending ! Come and block your seats now , it is election year , and sweet -legal deals available through all state leaders and through various national schemes , we have legalised bribes and you have an option to chose your preferred medium . Hurry, this is the last congress government.  Hurry up, come , before we run out of time as Elections are  likely in November

BTW, time for any sensible politician to come out with a job creation and wealth generation model for India before thinking of FDI or going back to 9 per cent growth

Earlier we realise , the better it is . India is into a recession now !

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Indian Economy – econoquake waiting to happen, with disastrous seismic cracks


Indian Economy – econoquake waiting to happen, with disastrous seismic cracks

It is a known fact that when symptoms become visible for a chronic disease, complications are tough to treat and the disease is in an advanced stage, but if the disease is diagnosed in earlier stages, the diseases are easy to treat and cure.  In India,  symptoms like fiscal deficit, current account deficit, increasing NPAs, inflation, unemployment, lack of investment sentiment, withdrawing of investors etc. are symptoms of an economic earth quake (what I call as econoquake), and it is like a disaster in slow motion for India.

The Indian economy has passed through its worst phase after independence since 2004 and the rot continues to grow.

USD vs INR

Here are some symptoms that tell how serious is the disease; Indian rupee was trading at 8 Rupee to a dollar in 1973, and has become Rs. 60 to a dollar.  Does it not indicate that valuations of this country, and the fact that the economy has weakened by about 750 % in the past 40 years!  Ideally, we should have grown and become 1 Rs. to 1 US $, but the poor leadership from these ‘Text Book economists’ (Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram, Montek, Subbarao) have brought down this great nation.  Let us analyze a little more in detail

All the data or facts I am quoting are from credible sources and are publicly accessible . (http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/Whathappensif/entry/rbi-data-shows-how-upa-killed-the-rupee?fb_action_ids=10151534667996725)

If the 10-year RBI data on short-term foreign debt is analyzed, it is fairly obvious that the UPA destroyed the value of the Rupee.  In 2004 when the Vajpayee Government was voted out, the foreign debt at $ 112.4 billion was well covered by the forex reserves.  Nine years later it has grown by 350 percent to $ 390 billion and the forex reserves cover falls 25 percent short.

Debt 1

However the rise of foreign debt is not the only reason why the Rupee collapsed from Rs 39 to a dollar to Rs 61 for a dollar during the intervening period.  Foreign debt is a necessary evil that is needed by developing countries to push forward their needs to fund foreign capital funded infrastructure.

over-50-percent-debt-is-sho

Usually such addition of infrastructure results in long-term asset building that adds to improved productivity of the nation.  However in India’s case the rise of external debt has been primarily to fund the current account deficits catering largely to the working capital needs and funded through the short-term loan at higher interest rates.  This short-term debt component was very comfortable at just 3.9 percent of the Forex reserves when the NDA was voted out of power nine years ago.

foreign-debt-trebles-in-a-d

By 2009 when the UPA II was re-elected it was around 17.2 percent and by March 2013 the short-term external debt rose to a whopping 33.1 percent of the Forex reserves, which had fallen to $ 292.65 billion.  With the reserves further dropping to $ 280.18 billion following RBI’s intervention to stem the Rupee slide in July, the ratio would have worsened.

Short term debts and the External Commercial Borrowings that would need repayment during this FY 2013-14 is high and would cause large outflow of dollars and put pressure on the currency intermittently.  For example during May 22 and June 19 there was a net debt outflow of $4.7 billion, one of the prime reasons why Rupee tanked.

These ECB’s and short-term debt have grown to an enormous 56 percent of the total debt by March 2013 almost 2.5 times what they were when the UPA came to power nine years ago.  As per RBI data short-term debt payable during this Financial year is $ 96.7 billion while ECB’s with 6 month to 1 year maturity that need to be repaid are around $ 21 billion, and NRI deposits maturing during the year are $49 billion.  The Rupee is catching a cold because the total foreign debt to be repaid this year works out to a massive $172 billion that is around two-thirds the foreign exchange reserves.  Even if interim measures to stop speculation are taking by the RBI it will not address the inherent weakness of the system.  Rather it may enhance volatility, as speculative traders if restricted will move offshore to short the Rupee.

USD vs Chinese Yuan

Similarly, if we compare our neighbor, China with larger population, Chinese currency has become strong.  Though, I must admit, it is not a fair comparison!  But the essence is, India is also intervening to control the rupee and Chinese central bank also intervenes, but I guess they have done a better job and the Chinese currency has strengthened compared to US dollar over the past decade and the Indian rupee has not just been weakened, it has been ‘hammered’, and continues to be the worst performing currency in Asia.  We can compare Malaysian Ringgit, Singapore dollar or UAE Dirham.  All these currencies have strengthened against the Indian rupee

Why rupee will continue to fall?

Domestic markets are failing.

CDR gives an indication that the corporate sector is crashing!

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/h7u6wQngeSZ6jL8MfCBpGL/Restructured-loans-cross-227-trillion-pace-slows.html

The latest data from the CDR cell suggests that Indian banks added Rs. 15,016 Crore of restructured loans in the March quarter, about Rs. 9,000 Crore less than what they had done in the pre ceding quarter.  On a cumulative basis, total restructured loans crossed Rs. 2.27 trillion, or 4.4% of the total loans given by Indian banks.

Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of 40 listed Indian banks rose to Rs.1.79 trillion in December fromRs.1.25 trillion a year ago, an increase of 43.1%.  In the past, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had cautioned banks about the need for enhanced risk assessment tools to monitor loan quality.

Defaults in Agricultural credit in another bubble?

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/ph30HumD1FPAGaBj0XCOyH/Kisan-Credit-Cards-Bad-loan-bubble-waiting-to-burst.html

A surge in exposure to farm debt through Kisan Credit Cards (KCCs) could emerge as a risk for India’s state-run banks, according to experts.

Subsidized loans are given to farmers through KCCs by state-owned banks.  Until March 2012, the outstanding amount on such loans was Rs.1.6 trillion through 20.3 million cards, as per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.  This may have risen to around Rs.2 trillion, bankers said.

Agriculture is one of the largest sources of bad loans for most banks.  It is contributing 9.72% to the gross NPAs of SBI and 7% of Central Bank of India.  The nation’s largest lender SBI has the largest gross NPAs —Rs.53, 457.79 Crore, or 5.3% of loans, followed by Punjab National Bank (Rs.13, 997.82 Crore, or 4.61% of loans), Central Bank of India (Rs.8, 938.47 Crore, or 5.64% of loans) and UCO Bank (Rs.6, 711.29 Crore, or 5.53% of loans).

FDI is like mirage for UPA

Government’s efforts to promote India as an investment destination does not seem to be yielding fruits as FDI inflows registered 38 per cent decline to $22.42 billion in 2012-13 compared to the previous year.

It is clear that the UPA government is on the ventilator and no sensible MNC or investor is going to even announce investment for during this government.  Knowing well, that the next government will certainly not be either from congress or due to its support.  That is one major reason why we have seen in the last week POSCO cancelled its Rs. 30,000 Crore steel plant on July 16th, L.N.Mittal cancelled its Rs. 50,000 Crore steel plant on 17th July 2013.  This is a loss of Rs. 80,000 Crore worth of investment committed to India.  Normally, when the government is about to be re-elected, we know that practically, all the companies wants to wash its hands in Ganges, and get speedy approvals for obvious reasons.  A ‘Needy’ political party in power wants to ‘cash in’ and so does the ‘greedy’ corporates.  We have seen how business leaders get national awards like Padamshree and Padmavibhushan in the election years or the year preceding the election year … but this time, the scene is different.  No sensible business house, no matter how ‘greedy’ it is, will commit any investment before the next general elections.  So, I see no respite to Indian economy till 2014 end or may be, 2015.

FII’s the real culprits for rupee slide?  May be!

FDI Inflows in India and Outflows from India from 2007 to 2012: (amount in US$ billion)

 

FDI Inflows to India

FDI Outflows from India

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

 

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

 

Total

43.4

35.6

27.4

36.5

 

19.3

15.9

15.3

12.6

 

As a % of GDP

3.4%

2.6%

1.7%

2.0%

 

1.5%

1.2%

0.9%

0.7%

 

FDI Investment Stocks

125.2

171.4

204.7

203.9

 

63.3

80.9

96.4

108.8

 

FDI Investments Stocks as % of GDP

9.8%

12.7%

12.6%

11.2%

 

4.9%

6.0%

5.9%

6.0%

 

Country

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Total

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Total

Singapore

3.42

2.38

1.70

4.31

11.81

4.06

4.20

3.99

1.86

14.11

Mauritius

11.04

10.34

6.98

8.92

37.28

2.08

2.15

5.08

2.27

11.57

Netherlands

0.85

0.90

1.21

1.16

4.12

2.79

1.53

1.52

0.70

6.54

USA

1.80

1.94

1.17

0.91

5.82

1.02

0.87

1.21

0.87

3.97

UAE

0.25

0.63

0.34

0.33

1.55

0.63

0.64

0.86

0.38

2.51

British Virgin Islands

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.75

0.28

0.52

1.55

UK

0.83

0.66

0.76

2.75

5.00

0.35

0.34

0.40

0.44

1.53

Cayman Islands

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.04

0.44

0.14

0.62

Hong Kong

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.31

0.46

Switzerland

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.00

0.25

0.16

0.41

Other Countries

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

7.65

3.19

2.65

1.23

14.71

Japan

0.41

1.18

1.56

2.75

5.90

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

Cyprus

1.30

1.63

0.91

1.32

5.16

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

Germany

0.60

0.63

0.20

1.46

2.89

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

France

0.46

0.30

0.73

0.47

1.96

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

References:

(1) OECD data on FDI in Figures as on January 15, 2013.

(2) Zenith International Journal of Business Economics and Management Research, July 2012.

(3) World Investment Report various issues.

(4) If there are any inadvertent errors in the data, it is regretted

Please see how foreigners are investing money in stock markets, and have taken over 100 Billion USD (108.8 Billion dollars, Which is 6 % of India’s GDP) outside India just in one year (2011-12).

How will our Finance Minister address the Balance of payment issue, which needs 75 billion USD?

11 % of GDP is in the hands of FDI / FIIs?  Are we safe?  Is our growth trickling down or trickling outward?  This is in complete deviation of the path of a self-reliant India propounded by our freedom fighters.  We are not building a West India company on the lines of the erstwhile East India Company?  Time to take a serious look at the data and take concrete actions.  It is a wake-up-call for India

Dr.Akash Mehta compiled this data on FII’s on my request.  Acknowledged with thanks Dr.Mehta.

Vehicle sales – another symptom of the anemic economy

Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand, prompting industry body SIAM to seek stimulus package for the automobile sector from the government.

With actual sales in the first quarter of this fiscal turning out to be wide off the mark from what it had forecast in April, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) stayed away from revising sales projections it had made in April this year and stated that even those targets were unlikely to be met, except in two-wheeler segment.

According to the latest figures, domestic car sales stood at 1,39,632 units in June as against 1,53,450 units in the same month last year.

We know the problem.  So what next?

India has focused too much on FDI / FII’s to bring in dollars, and the capitalists countries are like Shylock (Merchant of Venice).  They will extract their pound of flesh. So, India got quick dollars from FII’s, and FII’s made quicker returns and exited the markets and today FIIs have 11 % of the investment in stocks, as I have given the data above.  The fact is that, a clutch of foreign investors can destabilize India by withdrawing their investment.  FIIs are short-term hedgers and they damage infringe long-term damage to our currency & country.  Small retail investors become bankrupt because of FIIs.  What came out as a myopic solution to our fiscal deficit and balance of payment crises has today turned into a major national security issue?

Economic Competitiveness: We need to focus on economic competitiveness.  We have lost in the last few decades.

Areas to focus, agriculture – we need to amulify agriculture (taking a cue from Amul’s experiment of cooperative movement in milk).  We need to support farmers.  Make a paradigm shift in modernizing agriculture, training, and equipping farmers to set up SME food processing units.  This should make us the top most processed food country in the world in the next decade.  The national highways project of Shri.  Vajpayee (Golden Quadrilateral Project) was the best step taken since independence for inclusive growth, and this must be pursued aggressively.  During NDA regime the road building was 20 KMs a day and under UPA it is down to a KM or two.  The Atal Behari Vajpayee government bequeathed a robust economy to the UPA.  Remember that the growth rate registered in 2003-04, the last year of the NDA regime, was an impressive 8.5%.  Foreign exchange reserves were plentiful.  General prices were well under control.  Share markets were booming.  And there was a general sense of well-being. Work on the Golden Quadrilateral highway linking four corners of India was on in full swing.  And various public infrastructure projects under the Public-Private-Partnership model were proceeding without any hitch.

Now, in the last year of the UPA-II, we are back to the Hindu rate of growth.  If the economy logs anything above 5% it would be a miracle

(http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/back-to-where-the-economy-was-during-the-early-90s)

My personal prediction is, that we will be below 4 % in growth soon if the regime continues the same way and I have predicted it long back

(https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/)

Tourism- spiritual tourism – Tourism is the next best bet after agriculture and we must focus on it by innovating in this sector.  I have detailed plan for creating millions of jobs and billions of dollars through employing matriculate youths in this sector.

Intellectual property (IP): India has become a sweatshop and nothing wrong in it, but we need to focus on building IP in science, technology, defense, & agriculture.  It is shame that India has not even built a software platform (operating system) and still relies on Microsoft and IOS.  Indians in software arena should take a challenge and build the best operating system rather than spending billions of dollars buying MS Office and Apple operating system or Google.  We need a search engine developed by Indians.  India spends billions of dollars on universities but the IP registered by just one company Texas Instruments (for the sake of giving example I am quoting Texas Instruments) from its Bangalore office might exceed the patents granted to researchers in Indian universities.  We need a complete over haul in our education systems that give the world the most valuable IPs, which can be monetized.

Geographical indicators (GI’s): We all are aware that many Geographical Indications like Darjeeling Tea, Mysore Silk, and Champagne across the world have become premium global products.  While protection of GIs is very important, it is all the more important to extract economic benefit out of registered GIs.  In India we have 184 Indian GIs has been registered till now but hardly a few of them have accessed global market.

On the other hand we are also seeing growing number of GIs from other countries like Peruvian Pisco, Scotch whisky, Cognac, Prosciutto de Parma, Tequila etc. have registered in India.

While it is understood that not every Indian GI has the potential of capturing global market, but many of them have.  However we have not seen enough initiative and support system for such promising GIs having healthy export market.  There must be a plan to build on the legacy of these GI’s, and targeted GI must be turned into a USD 10 billion global markets for Indians.

21062107

Boost manufacturing with a focus on SME’s:  Women’s employment has taken an alarming dip in rural areas in the past two years, a government survey has revealed.  In jobs that are done for ‘the major part of the year’, rural women lost a staggering 9.1 million jobs.  This emerges from comparing employment data of two consecutive surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) in 2009-10 and 2011-12.  NDA, during 1999-2004, 60.7 million jobs were created while UPA Government, during 2004-2009, created only 2.7 million jobs.  (Data source: National Sample Survey Office).

Organic farming, Herbals & Nutraceuticals: The whole world is moving to traditional and complimentary medicine and India has a scientific traditional medicine dating back to 5000 years.  We can create rotation farming for herbals and organic foods and create millions of jobs and billions of dollars worth of exports.

Foreign policy: Neighbors can help.  We need not be hooked to G8 / 14/ 20.  It is time to have a strategic alliance in Asia, A-2 (India and China) on the lines of G-4, we need to create A-4, the big 4 Asian economies must come together to lead Asia.  This is where India must initiate moving from G-20 to A-4.

Lastly, it would not be wrong to say that lakhs of small and medium enterprises, and even 27 big corporate houses have 41 trillion rupee debts (http://www.livemint.com/Companies/7TnLNfHilL2UOkPVNku8UM/Kumar-Mangalam-Birla-is-the-highestpaid-director.html).  So, this is a steroid induced survival for most of the corporate entities be it small or big. More pain is expected by this year-end.  So the government needs to keeps its head low and overheads lower and find solutions to avoid NPA’s.  Though, it is another thing, that UPA has in it become an NPA.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com

Indian Economy – econoquake waiting to happen, with disastrous seismic cracks


Indian Economy – econoquake waiting to happen, with disastrous seismic cracks

It is a known fact that when symptoms become visible for a chronic disease, complications are tough to treat and the disease is in an advanced stage, but if the disease is diagnosed in earlier stages, the diseases are easy to treat and cure.  In India, now symptoms like fiscal deficit, current account deficit, increasing NPAs, inflation, unemployment, lack of investment sentiment, withdrawing of investors etc. are symptoms of a economic earth quake (what I call as econoquake), and it is like a disaster in slow motion for India.

The Indian economy has passed through its worst phase after independence since 2004 and the rot continues to grow.

USD vs INR

Here are some symptoms that tell how serious is the disease; Indian rupee was trading at 8 Rupee to a dollar in 1973, and has become Rs. 60 to a dollar.  Does it not indicate that valuations of this country, and the fact that the economy has weakened by about 750 % in the past 40 years!  Ideally, we should have grown and become 1 Rs. to 1 US $, but the poor leadership from these ‘Text Book economists’ (Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram, Montek, Subbarao) have brought down this great nation.  Let us analyze a little more in detail

All the data or facts I am quoting are from credible sources and are publicily accessible . (http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/Whathappensif/entry/rbi-data-shows-how-upa-killed-the-rupee?fb_action_ids=10151534667996725)

foreign-debt-trebles-in-a-d

If the 10-year RBI data on short-term foreign debt is analyzed, it is fairly obvious that the UPA destroyed the value of the Rupee.  In 2004 when the Vajpayee Government was voted out, the foreign debt at $ 112.4 billion was well covered by the forex reserves.  Nine years later it has grown by 350 percent to $ 390 billion and the forex reserves cover falls 25 percent short.

over-50-percent-debt-is-sho

However the rise of foreign debt is not the only reason why the Rupee collapsed from Rs 39 to a dollar to Rs 61 for a dollar during the intervening period.  Foreign debt is a necessary evil that is needed by developing countries to push forward their needs to fund foreign capital funded infrastructure.  Usually such addition of infrastructure results in long-term asset building that adds to improved productivity of the nation.  However in India’s case the rise of external debt has been primarily to fund the current account deficits catering largely to the working capital needs and funded through the short-term loan at higher interest rates.  This short-term debt component was very comfortable at just 3.9 percent of the Forex reserves when the NDA was voted out of power nine years ago.  By 2009 when the UPA II was re- elected it was around 17.2 percent and by March 2013 the short-term external debt rose to a whopping 33.1 percent of the Forex reserves, which had fallen to $ 292.65 billion.  With the reserves further dropping to $ 280.18 billion following RBI’s intervention to stem the Rupee slide in July, the ratio would have worsened.

Debt 1

Short term debts and the External Commercial Borrowings that would need repayment during this FY 2013-14 is high and would cause large outflow of dollars and put pressure on the currency intermittently.  For example during May 22 and June 19 there was a net debt outflow of $4.7 billion, one of the prime reasons why Rupee tanked.

These ECB’s and short-term debt have grown to an enormous 56 percent of the total debt by March 2013 almost 2.5 times what they were when the UPA came to power nine years ago.  As per RBI data short term debt payable during this Financial year is $ 96.7 billion while ECB’s with 6 month to 1 year maturity that need to be repaid are around $ 21 billion, and NRI deposits maturing during the year are $49 billion.  The Rupee is catching a cold because the total foreign debt to be repaid this year works out to a massive $172 billion that is around two-thirds the foreign exchange reserves.  Even if interim measures to stop speculation are taking by the RBI it will not address the inherent weakness of the system.  Rather it may enhance volatility, as speculative traders if restricted will move offshore to short the Rupee.

USD vs Chinese Yuan

Similarly, if we compare our neighbor, China with larger population, Chinese currency has become strong.  Though, I must admit, it is not a fair comparison!  But the essence is, India is also intervening to control the rupee and Chinese central bank also intervenes, but I guess they have done a better job and the Chinese currency has strengthened compared to US dollar over the past decade and the Indian rupee has not just been weakened, it has been ‘hammered’, and continues to be the worst performing currency in Asia.  We can compare Malaysian Ringgit, Singapore dollar or UAE Dirham.  All these currencies have strengthened against the Indian rupee

Why rupee will continue to fall?

Domestic markets are failing.

CDR gives an indication that the corporate sector is crashing!

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/h7u6wQngeSZ6jL8MfCBpGL/Restructured-loans-cross-227-trillion-pace-slows.html

The latest data from the CDR cell suggests that Indian banks added Rs. 15,016 Crore of restructured loans in the March quarter, about Rs. 9,000 Crore less than what they had done in the pre ceding quarter.  On a cumulative basis, total restructured loans crossed Rs. 2.27 trillion, or 4.4% of the total loans given by Indian banks.

Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of 40 listed Indian banks rose to Rs.1.79 trillion in December fromRs.1.25 trillion a year ago, an increase of 43.1%.  In the past, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had cautioned banks about the need for enhanced risk assessment tools to monitor loan quality.

Defaults in Agricultural credit in another bubble?

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/ph30HumD1FPAGaBj0XCOyH/Kisan-Credit-Cards-Bad-loan-bubble-waiting-to-burst.html

A surge in exposure to farm debt through Kisan Credit Cards (KCCs) could emerge as a risk for India’s state-run banks, according to experts.

Subsidized loans are given to farmers through KCCs by state-owned banks.  Until March 2012, the outstanding amount on such loans was Rs.1.6 trillion through 20.3 million cards, as per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.  This may have risen to around Rs.2 trillion, bankers said.

Agriculture is one of the largest sources of bad loans for most banks.  It is contributing 9.72% to the gross NPAs of SBI and 7% of Central Bank of India.  The nation’s largest lender SBI has the largest gross NPAs —Rs.53, 457.79 Crore, or 5.3% of loans, followed by Punjab National Bank (Rs.13, 997.82 Crore, or 4.61% of loans), Central Bank of India (Rs.8, 938.47 Crore, or 5.64% of loans) and UCO Bank (Rs.6, 711.29 Crore, or 5.53% of loans).

FDI is like mirage for UPA

Government’s efforts to promote India as an investment destination does not seem to be yielding fruits as FDI inflows registered 38 per cent decline to $22.42 billion in 2012-13 compared to the previous year.

It is clear that the UPA government is on the ventilator and no sensible MNC or investor is going to even announce investment for during this government.  Knowing well, that the next government will certainly not be either from congress or due to its support.  That is one major reason why we have seen in the last week POSCO cancelled its Rs. 30,000 Crore steel plant on July 16th, L.N.Mittal cancelled its Rs. 50,000 Crore steel plant on 17th July 2013.  This is a loss of Rs. 80,000 Crore worth of investment committed to India.  Normally, when the government is about to be re-elected, we know that practically, all the companies wants to wash its hands in Ganges, and get speedy approvals for obvious reasons.  A ‘Needy’ political party in power wants to ‘cash in’ and so does the ‘greedy’ corporates.  We have seen how business leaders get national awards like padamshree and padmavibhushan in the election years or the year preceding the election year … but this time, the scene is different.  No sensible business house, no matter how ‘greedy’ it is, will commit any investment before the next general elections.  So, I see no respite to Indian economy till 2014 end or may be, 2015.

FII’s the real culprits for rupee slide?  May be!

FDI Inflows in India and Outflows from India from 2007 to 2012: (amount in US$ billion)

 

FDI Inflows to India

FDI Outflows from India

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

 

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

 

Total

43.4

35.6

27.4

36.5

 

19.3

15.9

15.3

12.6

 

As a % of GDP

3.4%

2.6%

1.7%

2.0%

 

1.5%

1.2%

0.9%

0.7%

 

FDI Investment Stocks

125.2

171.4

204.7

203.9

 

63.3

80.9

96.4

108.8

 

FDI Investments Stocks as % of GDP

9.8%

12.7%

12.6%

11.2%

 

4.9%

6.0%

5.9%

6.0%

 

Country

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Total

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Total

Singapore

3.42

2.38

1.70

4.31

11.81

4.06

4.20

3.99

1.86

14.11

Mauritius

11.04

10.34

6.98

8.92

37.28

2.08

2.15

5.08

2.27

11.57

Netherlands

0.85

0.90

1.21

1.16

4.12

2.79

1.53

1.52

0.70

6.54

USA

1.80

1.94

1.17

0.91

5.82

1.02

0.87

1.21

0.87

3.97

UAE

0.25

0.63

0.34

0.33

1.55

0.63

0.64

0.86

0.38

2.51

British Virgin Islands

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.75

0.28

0.52

1.55

UK

0.83

0.66

0.76

2.75

5.00

0.35

0.34

0.40

0.44

1.53

Cayman Islands

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.04

0.44

0.14

0.62

Hong Kong

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.31

0.46

Switzerland

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

0.00

0.00

0.25

0.16

0.41

Other Countries

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

7.65

3.19

2.65

1.23

14.71

Japan

0.41

1.18

1.56

2.75

5.90

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

Cyprus

1.30

1.63

0.91

1.32

5.16

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

Germany

0.60

0.63

0.20

1.46

2.89

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

France

0.46

0.30

0.73

0.47

1.96

No data

No data

No data

No data

No data

References:

(1) OECD data on FDI in Figures as on January 15, 2013.

(2) Zenith International Journal of Business Economics and Management Research, July 2012.

(3) World Investment Report various issues.

(4) If there are any inadvertent errors in the data, it is regretted

Please see how foreigners are investing money in stock markets, and have taken over 100 Billion USD (108.8 Billion dollars, Which is 6 % of India’s GDP) outside India just in one year (2011-12).

How will our Finance Minister address the Balance of payment issue, which needs 75 billion USD?

11 % of GDP is in the hands of FDI / FIIs?  Are we safe?  Is our growth trickling down or trickling outward?  This is in complete deviation of the path of a self-reliant India propounded by our freedom fighters.  We are not building a West India company on the lines of the erstwhile East India Company?  Time to take a serious look at the data and take concrete actions.  It is a wake-up-call for India

Dr.Akash Mehta compiled this data on FII’s on my request.  Acknowledged with thanks Dr.Mehta.

Vehicle sales – another symptom of the anemic economy

Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand, prompting industry body SIAM to seek stimulus package for the automobile sector from the government.

With actual sales in the first quarter of this fiscal turning out to be wide off the mark from what it had forecast in April, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) stayed away from revising sales projections it had made in April this year and stated that even those targets were unlikely to be met, except in two-wheeler segment.

According to the latest figures, domestic car sales stood at 1,39,632 units in June as against 1,53,450 units in the same month last year.

We know the problem.  So what next?

India has focused too much on FDI / FII’s to bring in dollars, and the capitalists countries are like Shylock (Merchant of Venice).  They will extract their pound of flesh. So, India got quick dollars from FII’s, and FII’s made quicker returns and exited the markets and today FIIs have 11 % of the investment in stocks, as I have given the data above.  The fact is that, a clutch of foreign investors can destabilize India by withdrawing their investment.  FIIs are short-term hedgers and they damage infringe long-term damage to our currency & country.  Small retail investors become bankrupt because of FIIs.  What came out as a myopic solution to our fiscal deficit and balance of payment crises has today turned into a major national security issue?

Economic Competitiveness: We need to focus on economic competitiveness.  We have lost in the last few decades.

Areas to focus, agriculture – we need to amulify agriculture (taking a cue from Amul’s experiment of cooperative movement in milk).  We need to support farmers.  Make a paradigm shift in modernizing agriculture, training, and equipping farmers to set up SME food processing units.  This should make us the top most processed food country in the world in the next decade.  The national highways project of Shri.  Vajpayee (Golden Quadrilateral Project) was the best step taken since independence for inclusive growth, and this must be pursued aggressively.  During NDA regime the road building was 20 KMs a day and under UPA it is down to a KM or two.  The Atal Behari Vajpayee government bequeathed a robust economy to the UPA.  Remember that the growth rate registered in 2003-04, the last year of the NDA regime, was an impressive 8.5%.  Foreign exchange reserves were plentiful.  General prices were well under control.  Share markets were booming.  And there was a general sense of well-being. Work on the Golden Quadrilateral highway linking four corners of India was on in full swing.  And various public infrastructure projects under the Public-Private-Partnership model were proceeding without any hitch.

Now, in the last year of the UPA-II, we are back to the Hindu rate of growth.  If the economy logs anything above 5% it would be a miracle

(http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/back-to-where-the-economy-was-during-the-early-90s)

My personal prediction is, that we will be below 4 % in growth soon if the regime continues the same way and I have predicted it long back

(https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/)

Tourism- spiritual tourism – Tourism is the next best bet after agriculture and we must focus on it by innovating in this sector.  I have detailed plan for creating millions of jobs and billions of dollars through employing matriculate youths in this sector.

Intellectual property (IP): India has become a sweatshop and nothing wrong in it, but we need to focus on building IP in science, technology, defense, & agriculture.  It is shame that India has not even built a software platform (operating system) and still relies on Microsoft and IOS.  Indians in software arena should take a challenge and build the best operating system rather than spending billions of dollars buying MS Office and Apple operating system or Google.  We need a search engine developed by Indians.  India spends billions of dollars on universities but the IP registered by just one company Texas Instruments (for the sake of giving example I am quoting Texas Instruments) from its Bangalore office might exceed the patents granted to researchers in Indian universities.  We need a complete over haul in our education systems that give the world the most valuable IPs, which can be monetized.

Geographical indicators (GI’s): We all are aware that many Geographical Indications like Darjeeling Tea, Mysore Silk, and Champagne across the world have become premium global products.  While protection of GIs is very important, it is all the more important to extract economic benefit out of registered GIs.  In India we have 184 Indian GIs has been registered till now but hardly a few of them have accessed global market.

On the other hand we are also seeing growing number of GIs from other countries like Peruvian Pisco, Scotch whisky, Cognac, Prosciutto de Parma, Tequila etc. have registered in India.

While it is understood that not every Indian GI has the potential of capturing global market, but many of them have.  However we have not seen enough initiative and support system for such promising GIs having healthy export market.  There must be a plan to build on the legacy of these GI’s, and targeted GI must be turned into a USD 10 billion global markets for Indians.

21062107

Boost manufacturing with a focus on SME’s:  Women’s employment has taken an alarming dip in rural areas in the past two years, a government survey has revealed.  In jobs that are done for ‘the major part of the year’, rural women lost a staggering 9.1 million jobs.  This emerges from comparing employment data of two consecutive surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) in 2009-10 and 2011-12.  NDA, during 1999-2004, 60.7 million jobs were created while UPA Government, during 2004-2009, created only 2.7 million jobs.  (Data source: National Sample Survey Office).

Organic farming, Herbals & Nutraceuticals: The whole world is moving to traditional and complimentary medicine and India has a scientific traditional medicine dating back to 5000 years.  We can create rotation farming for herbals and organic foods and create millions of jobs and billions of dollars worth of exports.

Foreign policy: Neighbors can help.  We need not be hooked to G8 / 14/ 20.  It is time to have a strategic alliance in Asia, A-2 (India and China) on the lines of G-4, we need to create A-4, the big 4 Asian economies must come together to lead Asia.  This is where India must initiate moving from G-20 to A-4.

Lastly, it would not be wrong to say that lakhs of small and medium enterprises , and even 27 big corporate houses have 41 trillion rupee debts (http://www.livemint.com/Companies/7TnLNfHilL2UOkPVNku8UM/Kumar-Mangalam-Birla-is-the-highestpaid-director.html )  . So , this is a steriod induced survival for most of the corporate entitites be it small or big .More pain is expected by this year end. So the government needs to keeps its head low and overheads lower and find solutions to avoid NPA’s . Though, it is an another thing, that UPA has in itself become an NPA.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com

The Titanic is Sinking . Can we do something ?


Global Economic Outlook 2013

http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm

The global economy has yet to shake off the fallout from the crisis of 2008-2009. Global growth dropped to almost 3 percent in 2012, which indicates that about a half a percentage point has been shaved off the long-term trend since the crisis emerged. This slowing trend will likely continue. Mature economies are still healing the scars of the 2008-2009 crisis. But unlike in 2010 and 2011, emerging markets did not pick up the slack in 2012, and won’t do so in 2013. Uncertainty across the regions – from the post-election ‘fiscal debate’ question in the U.S. to the Chinese leadership transition and reforms in the Euro Area – will continue to have global impacts in sluggish trade and tepid foreign direct investment.

Main results:

  • Across the advanced economies, the Outlook predicts 1.2 percent growth in 2013, compared to 1.1 percent in 2012. The slight uptick is largely due to Europe, which is expected to return to very slow growth of 0.3 percent after the -0.2 percent contraction in 2012. U.S. growth is expected to fall from 2.2 percent in 2012 to 1.6 percent in 2013.
  • In the medium-term, the outlook expects the U.S. and other advanced economies to go some ways toward closing large output gaps – that is, the difference between current output and the level of output an economy can produce in a noninflationary way, given the size of its labor force and its potential to invest in and create technological progress. The current output gap is a result of weak demand due to the 2008-2009 crisis. This development should allow the U.S. to average 2.3 percent annual growth during 2013-2018 before falling to 2.0 percent in 2019-2025. In the same two periods, Japan is expected to grow at 0.9 percent per annum.
  • A more significant slowdown is expected for less mature economies over the next year – and beyond. Overall, growth in developing and emerging economies is projected to drop from 5.5 percent in 2012 to 5.0 percent in 2013, with growth falling in China from 7.8 to 7.5 percent and in India from 5.5 to 4.7 percent. From 2019-2025 emerging and developing countries are projected to grow at 3.3 percent.
  • The long-term global slowdown we project to 2025 will be driven largely by structural transformations in the emerging economies. As China, India, Brazil, and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive ‘catch-up’ growth to a more balanced model, the structural ‘speed limits’ of their economies are likely to decline, bringing down global growth despite the recovery we expect in advanced economies after 2013.

StraightTalk®

Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product, 2013-2025 (May 2013)

Europe includes all 27 current members of the European Union, as well as Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland.
**Other advanced includes Canada, Israel, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand.
***Southeast Europe includes Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia & Montenegro, and Turkey.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2013, May 2013 update

Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product, 1996-2013 (May 2013)

1996 – 2005

2006 – 2012

2012

2013

Distribution of World Output 2012

GDP Growth

Contribution to World GDP growth****

Projected GDP Growth

Contribution to World GDP growth****

Projected GDP Growth

Contribution to World GDP growth****

Projected GDP Growth

Contribution to World GDP growth****

United States

18.2%

3.3

0.7

1.1

0.2

2.2

0.4

1.6

0.3

Europe*

20.3%

2.4

0.6

0.9

0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.3

0.1

of which:
Euro Area

13.8%

2.2

0.7

-0.5

0.1

Japan

5.6%

1.0

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.8

0.0

Other advanced**

7.2%

4.0

0.3

3.0

0.2

2.2

0.2

2.8

0.2

Advanced Economies

51.3%

2.7

1.7

1.2

0.7

1.1

0.6

1.2

0.6

China

16.4%

8.1

0.6

10.4

1.3

7.8

1.2

7.5

1.2

India

6.3%

6.5

0.3

7.8

0.4

5.5

0.3

4.7

0.3

Other developing Asia

5.3%

3.9

0.2

5.0

0.2

5.3

0.3

5.0

0.3

Latin America

7.7%

2.8

0.2

3.7

0.3

3.1

0.2

3.0

0.2

Middle East

3.7%

4.6

0.1

4.3

0.2

5.5

0.2

2.2

0.1

Africa

3.3%

4.6

0.1

4.7

0.1

3.7

0.1

4.2

0.1

Russia, Central Asia and Southeast Europe***

5.9%

4.0

0.2

4.0

0.2

3.6

0.2

2.9

0.2

Emerging and Developing Economies

48.7%

5.0

1.8

6.5

2.8

5.5

2.6

5.0

2.4

World Total

100.0%

3.6

3.5

3.2

3.0

*Europe includes all 27 current members of the European Union, as well as Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland.
**Other advanced includes Canada, Israel, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand.
***Southeast Europe includes Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, and Serbia & Montenegro, and Turkey..
****The percentage contributions to global growth are computed as log differences and therefore do not exactly add up to the percentage growth rate for the world economy.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, May 2013 update.

Comparison of Base Scenario with Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios, 2013 – 2025 (May 2013)

2013 – 2018

2019 – 2025

GDP Growth in Optimistic Scenario

GDP Growth in Base Scenario

GDP Growth in Pessimistic Scenario

GDP Growth in Optimistic Scenario

GDP Growth in Base Scenario

GDP Growth in Pessimistic Scenario

Distribution of World Output 2025

United States

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.0

1.6

18.3%

Europe*

1.5

1.2

0.8

1.6

1.3

0.9

17.4%

of which:
Euro Area

1.4

1.1

0.8

1.6

1.3

1.0

12.0%

Japan

1.3

0.9

0.5

1.2

0.9

0.7

4.8%

Other advanced**

3.5

2.6

1.7

2.5

1.8

1.2

7.3%

Advanced Economies

2.1

1.8

1.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

47.8%

China

8.0

5.8

3.7

4.9

3.7

2.5

22.7%

India

5.7

4.7

3.6

4.5

3.8

3.2

8.2%

Other developing Asia

6.4

5.0

3.6

5.5

4.4

3.2

4.9%

Latin America

3.9

3.2

2.5

3.4

2.8

2.2

7.1%

Middle East

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.5%

Africa

5.1

4.1

3.2

5.0

4.1

3.2

2.6%

Russia, Central Asia and Southeast Europe***

3.1

2.1

1.2

2.1

1.5

1.0

4.1%

Emerging and Developing Economies

5.7

4.4

3.0

4.2

3.3

2.5

52.2%

World Total

4.0

3.1

2.2

3.3

2.6

1.9

100.0%

*Europe includes all 27 current members of the European Union, as well as Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland.
**Other advanced includes Canada, Israel, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand.
***Southeast Europe includes Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia & Montenegro, and Turkey.
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2013, May 2013 update

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the country’s economic slowdown was cyclical and temporary and that pessimism was unwarranted.

Many economists say hurdles to growth stem from the government’s slow pace of policy reforms as well as the country’s crumbling infrastructure and layers of red-tape.

India’s economic troubles are reflected in its gaping fiscal deficit, persistently high inflation and pessimism among businesses and consumers. This has driven down investments and demand.

Uncertainty in developed markets hasn’t helped. India’s exports, which account for about a fifth of its gross domestic product, have slowed sharply over the past year. Meanwhile, the country’s import bill has swelled, leading to a record-high current account deficit at 6.7% of GDP in the October-December quarter.

Eurozone  is a signal that worst is yet to come ?

 

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-06-01/europe/39673930_1_unemployment-rate-youth-unemployment-unemployment-figures

Unemployment across the 17 European Union countries that use the euro hit another record high in April – and appears to be on course to hit 20 million this year in what would be another gloomy landmark for the currency bloc.

Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office, said on Friday that the unemployment rate rose to 12.2% in April from the previous record of 12.1% the month before. In 2008, before the worst of the financial crisis, it was around 7.5%.

A net 95,000 people joined the ranks of the unemployed, taking the total to 19.38 million. At that pace, unemployment in the currency bloc – which has a population of about 330 million – could breach the 20 million mark by the end of the year.

The unemployment figures mask big disparities among the euro countries. While over one in four people are unemployed in Greece and Spain, Germany’s rate is stable at a low 5.4%.

The differences are particularly stark when looking at the rates of youth unemployment. While Germany’s youth unemployment stands at a relatively benign 7.5%, well over half of people aged 16 to 25 in Greece and Spain are jobless. Italy’s unemployment rate hit its highest level in at least 36 years to over 40%.

“Youth joblessness at these levels risks permanently entrenched unemployment, lowering the rate of sustainable growth in the future,” said Tom Rogers, senior economic adviser at Ernst & Young.

By contrast the US economy has been growing steadily since the end of its recession in June 2009 and the jobs market has started to improve, with the unemployment rate falling to 7.5% in April.

The asset quality is declining in tandem with the economic cycle : http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/JdBQccPTowuvisdqj9guXN/The-deterioration-in-Indian-banks.html

The financial problems of Indian companies are now being reflected in the asset quality of banks that have lent them money.

The disappointing fourth quarter results announced by the State Bank of India in May are perhaps the starkest example of how the financial condition of Indian banks has deteriorated in tandem with the economic cycle. A recent report by India Ratings and Research, an arm of Fitch Ratings, predicts further deterioration—Rs.1.26 trillion of bank loans may potentially be in distress over the next 12 to 24 months, it says.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has done well to begin making it tougher for banks to brush their problems under the carpet. The central bank on Thursday tightened the rules for corporate debt recasts, asking banks to set aside more money for restructured loans as well as making promoters of companies personally liable for loan losses. This follows an earlier decision in November to increase provisioning for restructured assets.

Non-performing loans have been climbing. The problem of restructured assets has also been increasing over recent quarters. The total value of restructured loans in bank books under the corporate debt restructuring facility was an estimated Rs.2.29 trillion in March. There are an additional Rs.1.7 trillion of loans that have been restructured on a bilateral basis between individual banks and their troubled borrowers, according to unofficial estimates.

Such restructured loans as well as the usual bad loans now weigh down bank balance sheets.

The recent moves to raise the cost of loan restructurings—or the withdrawal of regulatory forbearance—is an implicit signal from the central bank that problem loans will not disappear in a jiffy. It usually makes sense to give lenders breathing space to put their loan books in order when companies are hit by a temporary downturn. A few quarters of leniency can help companies get back to their loan repayment schedules quickly. But it is now increasingly clear that the Indian economy is in the midst of a long slowdown, so banks will need to be far tougher with problem loans.

The rise in problem loans should not come as a surprise. It is the inevitable aftermath of a credit boom, as is the case in other economies as well. Loan growth in India was around twice of nominal gross domestic product in the years that immediately preceded the 2008 crisis, a sure sign of effervescent lending. Part of this unusual buoyancy in lending can be explained by the decisions taken within banks but the pressure from New Delhi to step up lending in those exuberant years was also a factor. This is the moment of the inevitable hangover.

What now? A quick improvement seems unlikely. First, it seems that India has still not seen the bottom of the credit cycle. Second, the standard metrics on the ability of companies to service their debt (such as interest cover and free cash flow) are also flashing amber. Third, a sharp reduction in interest rates seems unlikely despite the unexpectedly sharp drop in inflation in recent months. Our assessment is that asset quality in Indian banks will continue to deteriorate for at least a few more quarters (though rising bond prices as a result of a fall in long-term yields could provide some buffer to banks that collectively own more than a quarter of their assets in bonds).

The asset quality of banks is closely related to the state of the underlying economy, which is now in the midst of a structural slowdown. The recent regulatory tightening should be examined against this backdrop, as a recognition of the true state of the Indian economy.

Investors too should welcome the stricter measures, because the regulatory forbearance we saw after 2009 was an attempt to postpone the day of reckoning, when a bank has to take a hit from its problem loans.

FDI inflows declining and rupee depreciating

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/fdi-dips-by-38-to-224-bn-in-201213/article4775276.ece

Government’s efforts to promote India as an investment destination does not seem to be yielding fruits as FDI inflows registered 38 per cent decline to $22.42 billion in 2012-13 compared to the previous year.

FDI inflows were worth $35.12 billion in 2011-12.

The government had taken several policy decisions in the past few months to attract foreign investments. Important among these include allowing FDI in multi-brand retail and civil aviation sectors and seeking legislative approval for increasing FDI cap in insurance and pension sectors.

In March this year, the country had attracted $1.52 billion FDI, taking the total to $22.42 billion in the entire financial year, an official in the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) told PTI.

Sectors which received large FDI inflows during 2012—13 include services ($4.83 billion), hotel and tourism ($3.25 billion), metallurgical ($1.46 billion), construction ($1.33 billion), automobiles ($1.53 billion) and Pharmaceuticals ($1.12 billion), the official added.

India received maximum FDI from Mauritius ($9.49 billion), followed by UK ($7.87 billion), Singapore ($5.25 billion), Japan ($2.97 billion) and United States ($1.11 billion).

According to industry experts, there is a need to improve business environment in the country.

In November 2012, India attracted FDI worth $1.05 billion, which was two—year low.

India would require around $1 trillion in the next five years to overhaul its infrastructure sector such as ports, airports and highways to boost growth.

Decline in foreign investments could put pressure on the country’s balance of payments and may also impact the value of the rupee.

Rupee declined by 12 paise to end at 11—month low of 56.50 against the US dollar on Friday amid worries over current account deficit and GDP growth.

With FII outflows of $90 million in stocks, RBI’s poor inflation outlook and GDP growth rate falling to decade’s low of 5 per cent pushed the rupee downwards to 56.76 — its lowest since June 28, 2012.

Economic growth rate slipped to a decade low of 5 per cent in 2012—13 due to poor performance of farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.

GDP growth in Jan- March is a mere statistical growth due to base affect ?

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/DuHmUO6Inoyspt254OeGWJ/GDP-growth-improves-a-tiny-bit-aided-by-smoke-and-mirrors.html

Has the economy turned the corner? That’s the big question the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers were supposed to answer. Has it indeed bounced off a bottom? At first glance, the answer to that question seems to entirely depend on your measuring rod. For instance, if we take the quarterly estimates of GDP at 2004-05 market prices from the expenditure side, we find real GDP growth was 3.4% in the June quarter, 2.5% in the September quarter, 4.1% in the December quarter, and 3% in the March quarter. By that yardstick, the economy hit a bottom in the September quarter of 2012-13, bounced back in the next, and then fell back again in the March quarter. The rather dubious consolation is that this yardstick is well known to be dodgy and the credibility of the expenditure-side GDP figures is rather low.

Going back to the more credible GDP data at factor cost, we find growth was 4.8% in the March quarter, a mite higher than the nadir of 4.7% reached in the preceding quarter. That would indicate that the economy has indeed bounced off a bottom, a very weak bounce, more of a twitch really.

The problem, as usual, lies in the base effect. It’s true that real GDP growth at factor cost was 4.7% in the third quarter and 4.8% in the fourth quarter compared with a year ago. That 4.7% growth was on top of 6% growth in the third quarter of 2011-12, while the 4.8% growth was on top of a much-lower 5.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2011-12. Even the feeble bounce was entirely statistical.

The same holds true for several of the sectors. Growth in manufacturing, for example, has moved up slowly and steadily from minus 1% in the first quarter of 2012-13 to 2.6% in the fourth quarter. That looks like a decent recovery. The problem is that in the first quarter of 2011-12, manufacturing growth was 7.4% and it was a mere 0.1% in the fourth quarter of that year. In short, the entire credit for the growth in manufacturing goes to the base effect.

Apart from agriculture, with its seasonal vagaries, are there any sectors that have bucked the base effect? The financing, insurance, real estate and business services segment seems to have done just that. It grew by 9.1% in Q4, 2012-13, on top of 11.3% growth in the year ago quarter. Compare that to its much-lower 7.8% growth in Q3, 2012-13, on top of 11.4% growth in the year ago quarter.

On the other hand, there are several sectors that have done badly in spite of a favourable base effect. Consider electricity, gas and water supply, whose growth rate has gone down from 4.5% in the third quarter of 2012-13 to 2.8% in the fourth, although growth in this sector in Q4 of the previous year was much lower than in Q3 that year. This clearly shows the impact of supply-side problems in the power sector. Similarly, growth in trade, hotels, transport and communication slackened a bit in the fourth quarter compared with the third, despite a favourable base effect. Community, social and personal services, a proxy for government expenditure, unsurprisingly saw tepid growth as the fiscal deficit came down.

How much did the different sectors of the economy contribute to GDP growth in 2012-13? As much as 35% of the growth was generated by the trade, hotels, transport and communication sector, closely followed by financing, insurance, real estate and business services, which accounted for 31.3%. The community, social and personal services segment contributed 16.8% of the growth. It means these three service sectors contributed a huge 83.1% to growth last fiscal year.

Contrast the miserable performance of manufacturing, which accounted for a mere 3.3% of growth. The construction sector contributed more than double that. As a matter of fact, agriculture, forestry and fishing generated 5.4% of last year’s growth, more than the share of manufacturing. The contribution of the mining sector was negative, because of the court-directed closure of mines. The chart shows the contribution from the different sectors. Clearly, mining is the weakest link, closely followed by manufacturing.

The Central Statistical Organisation also seems to have been bang on target with its estimate of 5% real GDP growth at factor cost for 2012-13. A closer examination shows, however, that it had overestimated growth in manufacturing, mining, electricity, gas and water supply and, to a minor extent, in community, social and personal services, and underestimated growth in trade, hotels, transport and communication. That the overall growth rate came out exactly as it predicted can be attributed to an extraordinary stroke of luck.

 

India’s growth slows down – India is running out of fuel ?

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Its-official-Indian-economy-slowed-to-a-10-year-low-of-5-in-2012-13/articleshow/20374920.cms

The Indian economy grew at its slowest pace in a decade in 2012-13, posing another fresh challenge for the UPA coalition to revive growth and boost sentiment ahead of the general elections next year.

Data released by the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) on Friday showed that the economy grew 5% in 2012-13, compared to 6.2% expansion in the previous year. It was in line with the advanced estimates released earlier.

The economy grew 4.8% in the January-March period, the fourth quarter of the 2012-13 fiscal year, marginally above the upwardly revised 4.7% expansion in the previous quarter, providing some hope of a tentative turnaround. But the overall economic scenario still remains challenging and the GDP data should come as a wake-up call for the government.

The CSO numbers are also an embarrassment for the finance ministry which had questioned the statistics office’s methodology and expressed doubts about the advanced estimates.

The finance ministry had slammed the CSO for forecasting 5% growth for 2012-13. Finance minister P Chidambaram had said the estimate of 5% was based on “dated data”. He had said that growth would be closer to 5.5% and had exuded confidence that green shoots of recovery were visible in the economy.

The high current account deficit, which widened to 6.7% in the December quarter, and stubborn inflation has acted as obstacles to easing monetary policy aggressively. While the Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates it has cautioned about the persisting inflationary pressures and risks still facing the economy.

What has been most disappointing is that industrial output growth in 2012-13 has been a mere 1%, posing a threat to job creation and overall growth.

Friday’s data showed the farm sector rose 1.9% in 2012-13 compared to 3.6% in the year-ago period while the crucial manufacturing sector grew 1% compared with 2.7% expansion in 2011-12.

The services sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, rose 7.1% in 2012-13 compared to 8.2% growth in the year-ago period.

 

CDR gives an indication that the corporate sector is crashing !

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/h7u6wQngeSZ6jL8MfCBpGL/Restructured-loans-cross-227-trillion-pace-slows.html

The latest data from the CDR cell suggests that Indian banks added Rs. 15,016 crore of restructured loans in the March quarter, about Rs. 9,000 crore less than what they had done in the pre ceding quarter. On a cumulative basis, total restructured loans crossed Rs. 2.27 trillion, or 4.4% of the total loans given by Indian banks.

Indian banks have been hit by a surge of bad loans in the face of declining economic growth, estimated at a decade’s low of 5% in the year ended 31 March, project delays and high interest rates that have made it difficult for borrowers to repay debt. Lenders have been easing repayment terms to avoid classifying them as bad assets.

The CDR numbers do not reflect the actual pile-up of restructured loans in the banking system because lenders also recast loans outside the CDR platform, on a bilateral basis.

The aggregate figure for bilateral loan recasts is not available, but bankers said such recasts may nearly equal the CDR figure. That would take the total restructured assets of the Indian banking industry to around Rs.4 trillion.

In the whole of fiscal 2012-13, Indian banks restructured a total of Rs.77,101 crore of loans through the CDR route, nearly double the amount in the previous fiscal (Rs.40,000 crore). Analysts expect about 25-30% of such loans to turn bad.

Iron and steel contributed most to the restructured loan pile—23%—followed by infrastructure (9.65%) and power (8.13%). The textile, telecom and fertilizer sectors, and non-banking finance companies, too, are high on the list.

Despite a decline in the CDR numbers in the March quarter, bankers and financial sector analysts are sceptical about a sustainable revival at Indian companies. The pain associated with mounting bad loans is unlikely to ease at least in the next six months, they said.

Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of 40 listed Indian banks rose to Rs.1.79 trillion in December fromRs.1.25 trillion a year ago, an increase of 43.1%. In the past, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had cautioned banks about the need for enhanced risk assessment tools to monitor loan quality.

Factory output shrinks 1st time in over 4 years .

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/06/03/india-manufacturing-pmi-idINDEE95203N20130603

The sombre PMI findings came hard on the heels of data released on Friday that confirmed Asia’s third largest economy grew at its slowest pace in a decade in the fiscal year that ended in March.

The overall HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gauges business activity in Indian factories but not its utilities, sank to 50.1 in May from 51.0 in April, and was the third straight monthly fall.

Though the May reading was the lowest since March 2009, the overall index has held above the watershed 50 level that divides growth from contraction for over four years.

The reading for the factory production sub-index, however, showed output contracted in May from a month earlier as new orders growth slowed to a trickle. The output sub-index fell to 48.6 in May from 50.2 in April.

“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector slowed further in May as output contracted in response to softer domestic orders,” said Leif Eskesen, an economist with survey sponsor HSBC. Eskesen said power outages added to the drop in production

Defaults in Agricultural credit in another bubble ?

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/ph30HumD1FPAGaBj0XCOyH/Kisan-Credit-Cards-Bad-loan-bubble-waiting-to-burst.html

A surge in exposure to farm debt through Kisan Credit Cards (KCCs) could emerge as a risk for India’s state-run banks, according to experts.

Subsidized loans are given to farmers through KCCs by state-owned banks. Until March 2012, the outstanding amount on such loans was Rs.1.6 trillion through 20.3 million cards, as per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. This may have risen to around Rs.2 trillion, bankers said.

Bad loans may be piling up at banks, but they don’t reflect on the books as the credit limit on such cards keeps increasing. Even if a borrower fails to pay up and the banks add the unrealized interest to the exposure because of the rising credit limits—typically 10% every year—the so-called capitalization of interest does not affect the status of the loan account.

State Bank of India (SBI) has the largest exposure to KCC loans—about Rs.44,000 crore— and 5% of this has turned bad, the bank said; Central Bank of India’s exposure isRs.8,428.05 crore and that of Bank of Maharashtra is Rs.2,045 crore.

According to RBI data, banks had Rs.33,200 crore overdue in the direct agrifinance portfolio till 2011 June. The latest figures are not available.

The credit culture in rural India deteriorated sharply after the government announced a Rs.70,000 crore debt waiver for farmers in the February 2008 budget.

The farm loan waiver was one of the United Progressive Alliance government’s key programmes in its first tenure and at least partly responsible for its return to power in 2009.

“Outstanding KCC loans have grown at around 33% in past two years while the number of credit cards has grown at around 13%,”

The share of agriculture, which once generated maximum jobs, has been shrinking as a percentage of national income in Asia’s third largest economy—from 35.75% in 1981 to 16.75% in 2012.

Agriculture is one of the largest sources of bad loans for most banks. It is contributing 9.72% to the gross NPAs of SBI and 7% of Central Bank of India. The nation’s largest lender SBI has the largest gross NPAs —Rs.53,457.79 crore, or 5.3% of loans, followed by Punjab National Bank (Rs.13,997.82 crore, or 4.61% of loans), Central Bank of India (Rs.8,938.47 crore, or 5.64% of loans) and UCO Bank (Rs.6,711.29 crore, or 5.53% of loans).

A bad monsoon could mean a dramatic turn for the worse as the June-September rainy season constitutes India’s main source of irrigation.

Brief summary :

  1. The financial problems of Indian companies are now being reflected in the asset quality of banks that have lent them money.

And the NPA’s are growing every hour.

  1. Government’s efforts to promote India as an investment destination does not seem to be yielding fruits as FDI inflows registered 38 per cent decline to $22.42 billion in 2012-13 compared to the previous year.
  1. The Indian economy grew at its slowest pace in a decade in 2012-13
  1. Industrial output growth in 2012-13 has been a mere 1%, posing a threat to job creation and overall growth.
  2. Factory output shrinks for the 1st time in over four years
  3. Farm sector rose 1.9% in 2012-13 compared to 3.6% in the year-ago period while the crucial manufacturing sector grew 1% compared with 2.7% expansion in 2011-12
  4. The services sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, rose 7.1% in 2012-13 compared to 8.2% growth in the year-ago period.
  5. The share of agriculture, which once generated maximum jobs, has been shrinking as a percentage of national income in Asia’s third largest economy—from 35.75% in 1981 to 16.75% in 2012.
  6. Until March 2012, the outstanding amount on Kisan Credit card loans was Rs.1.6 trillion through 20.3 million cards, as per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. This may have risen to around Rs.2 trillion
  7. “Outstanding KCC loans have grown at around 33% in past two years while the number of credit cards has grown at around 13%,”

10. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of 40 listed Indian banks rose to Rs.1.79 trillion in December fromRs.1.25 trillion a year ago, an increase of 43.1%.

11. The total restructured assets of the Indian banking industry could be around Rs.4 trillion.

12. All the emerging or the sunrise industries are not earning enough to pay loans and this clearly shows that India is a oversold story . Iron and steel contributed most to the restructured loan pile—23%—followed by infrastructure (9.65%) and power (8.13%). The textile, telecom and fertilizer sectors, and non-banking finance companies, too, are high on the list.

13. Eurozone is passing through a crises that could worsen, and impact the Indian exporters

14. Rupee is depreciating, and is the worst performing currency in Asia

Overall, I stand by my assessment of the Indian economy in March 2012 (https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/22/have-we-oversold-the-india-story/ ) and in October 2012 (https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/ )that India is an oversold story and should prepare for the worst times ahead . Also, I said on my blog in March about India facing a security threat , and we know what China did (https://commonmansblog.com/2013/03/03/economy-downgrade-and-downfall-both-are-a-foregone-conclusion/) .

I see no reason to believe that India will be back to normal before 2015-16, and that too, provided politicians become realistic . In the current environment , none of the political parties or the politicians have a plan to salvage the situation, and my prediction is , that  India’s growth rate might fall below 4 % .  The Indian Titanic is in mid of a turbulent sea, heading towards a more severe storm . The Titanic is sinking . Can we do something ?

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Wal-Mart & how it harms small businesses and communities – Fact sheet


IMG_0092

Wal-Mart, Small Business and the Community

* Predatory Pricing:  Basically, the higher Wal-Mart’s market share, the higher its prices.  Wal-Mart will go into a town, charge below cost until their competition is gone, and then raise prices.  Examples include Conway, AK where Wal-Mart’s attempted to undercut drug stores and Fresh Farms in Va. where the prices of goods near the competing supermarket were markedly lower than at another Wal-Mart 20 miles away without much competition.

For more info:

1) http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1038/is_n5_v38/ai_17565139

2) http://www.newrules.org/retail/news_archive.php?browseby=slug&slugid=28

* Economic Importance of Local Business:  Neighborhood businesses contribute to local charities, advertise in local papers, buy from local suppliers, utilize local professionals (e.g. accountants, lawyers), pay local taxes and are often homeowner in the community.  With this “multiplier effect” local business dollars are three times more likely to re-circulate within the community than those of mega-retailers like Wal-Mart.  Box stores often supply themselves from outside the community;

For more info:

1) http://www.newrules.org/retail/econimpact.html#1

* Sales Tax Revenue – Especially in New York City, Wal-Mart proponents often mention that people already shop at Wal-Mart in New Jersey so why not keep the tax dollars and shoppers in New York State?  Though convincing on the surface, this claim is flawed.  People shop in New Jersey because they pay a significantly lower sales tax, can fill up their car with less costly gasoline and buy their soda without a deposit.  Even with a Wal-Mart, consumers will continue to flock to surrounding areas as long as New York City maintains its high taxes and prohibitive business environment.  If pundits and politicians are concerned about the “leakage” of business, they should make it easier for all merchants to do business in New York , not encourage the building of megastores that threaten neighborhoods and put a strain on public resources.

* Cannibalization: Studies show that Wal-Mart, unlike claims to the contrary, draws most of its business from local stores, not from new shoppers (84%).

* Job Growth: Wal-Mart’s entry results in the replacement of entrepreneurs and local wholesalers with low paid clerks and out-of-town suppliers.  Where you once might have had a town with ten florists, each with numerous employees, you know have 1 Wal-Mart flower manager with a couple of low wage employees.  Moreover, because the company outsources so much of its production oversees, the United States continues to lose its manufacturing base and those put out-of-work either remain unemployed or have to take lower paying jobs.

For more info:

1) http://www.walmartfreenyc.com/cultural.pdf

* Quality of Life: Crime and Traffic– A major concern of residents all across the country is their quality of life.  Though box stores like Wal-Mart promise the benefits of low prices and one-stop shopping there are tremendous costs to the community.  Due to its immense size and inventory, Wal-Mart is often a magnet for crime and because it relentlessly pursues even minor offenses community police resources are taxed.  The 200,000 sq. ft. stores also bring with it incredible traffic as well as all the related problems of air pollution, asthma and the increased response time for emergency services.

 

For more info:

1) http://www.momandpopnyc.com/campaigns/walmart/articles/index.htm#crime

* Connection to the Community – Unlike Wal-Mart and other large box stores, small businesses are strongly rooted in the community and do not have the luxury of shutting down even if profits start to shrink.  Wal-Mart however, is only considering an overall bottom line and won’t think twice about closing stores, no matter the local effect.  It has also been known to open up a discount store, drive out all competition and then close that same store to open up a supercenter somewhere else.  Therefore, the community is deprived of both local business and its Wal-Mart.

For more info:

1) http://www.sprawl-busters.com/search.php?readstory=1757

* Government Subsidies: Wal-Mart, the largest retailer in the world, is the beneficiary of billions of dollars in incentives and tax breaks not available to smaller competitors. According to Good Jobs First, Wal-Mart receives over 1 billion dollars a year in subsidies and that only takes into account 244 stores and distribution centers for which data was available.  Contrary to what Wal-Mart proponents say, neighborhood retailers are not afraid of competition.  They are, however, worried when the government creates an unlevel playing field in favor of retail behemoths.
For more info:

1) http://goodjobsfirst.org/pdf/wmtstudy.pdf

* Health Care: More than two thirds of Wal-Mart workers do not participate in the company’s health plan, due to high premiums and deductibles.  In order to obtain care, many of these low wage earners turn to government-funded (i.e. taxpayer-funded) program, costing each and everyone one of us in the end.  Nearly 700,000 Wal-Mart employees rely on government programs and Wal-Mart workers and their families are the number one users of public healthcare in states such as Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Arkansas.

For more information:

 

1) http://www.walmartfreenyc.com/waronhealthcare.pdf

2) http://www.goodjobsfirst.org/gjfhealthcaredisclosure.htm

* Competition:  Though Wal-Mart is often held up as the standard-bearer for competition, its actions reveal a company that sees competitors as nasty inconveniences.  If Wal-Mart was truly competitive it wouldn’t demand enormous subsidies for a good number of its stores, subsidies that either aren’t available for or aren’t advertised to small business.  If Wal-Mart was truly competitive it wouldn’t price items below cost, force out competitors and then raise its prices again.  If Wal-Mart was truly competitive if wouldn’t pass along health care costs to taxpayers.   In a more general sense, because Wal-Mart has eliminated businesses large and small, it is creating a more homogenous marketplace, one bereft of diverse, competitive merchants.

* The Race to the Bottom: Devastating Impact on Supermarkets and other Businesses: During the past decade, over 13,000 supermarkets have closed, which led to the replacement of unionized workers earning family-sustaining wages with low-paid and under-benefited workers.  In Mississippi, a study found that in small towns in the state, five years after the opening of a Wal-Mart, the dollar volume of grocery store trade had collapsed 17%.  For the supermarkets and other businesses that remain open after a Wal-Mart has been built the affects can be just a detrimental.  As has been seen in California, St. Louis, Missouri, and Eugene, Oregon, Wal-Mart creates a “race to the bottom” by forcing competing stores to either lower their workers’ wages and benefits or face extinction.

For more info:

1) http://www.walmartfreenyc.com/waronhealthcare.pdf

* The Affect on America’s Downtowns and Commercial Districts – Wal-Mart has destroyed communities and cities. For example:

Author Al Norman describes the effect of Wal-Mart and Home Depot “When I went for a walk in downtown Toledo, I passed the old Lamson dry goods store: 9 stories of empty retail space. Each floor is the size of a football field. The building served as the home of a Macy’s Department store from 1924 to 1984. For the past fourteen years, the store has been empty. The City now owns it, which means the taxpayers of Toledo are paying the freight for its upkeep.”

Nowata, Oklahoma. In 1982, Wal-Mart opened a store on the outskirts of Nowata, a town of 4,000 people. Half of the small businesses in downtown Nowata shut down. Then in 1994, Wal-Mart abruptly closed this store, as well as another in a nearby town, and opened up a supercenter in Bartlesville, which is 30 miles away, leaving Nowata
prostrate.

* The Need for Economic Impact Studies – All of the abovementioned issues reinforce the need to conduct thorough and economic impact studies when large box stores want to build.  Wal-Mart claims that jobs are created but what is the nature of those jobs, how many jobs will be lost and how will existing jobs be affected?  Wal-Mart claims that the town or municipality will gain much needed tax revenue but does this potential benefit outweigh the subsidies, drain on public resources and traffic that results?  The only way to find the answer to these and other questions is a complete cost-benefit analysis.

Wal-Mart has been probed for bribing officials , so Wal-Mart is not just a wholesaler / retailer of products but also, a ‘wholesaler of corruption’

Time to rise up and say ‘ Back Off  Wal-Mart, India does not need you’

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Healthcare policies for a political party


On 5th April, 2013,  was invited to lead the discussions on a healthcare policy meeting of a fast emerging political party

The following discussion points i put forth for the kind consideration of the committee ;

Three key components for reform:

Systems

Service

Staff

Key challenges :

longevity of life

Expenses as budgetary allocation

Timely and quality interventions

Preventive promotive and curative health care

Child health

Chronic diseases

Rural health

Technological interventions

Role of pharmacists and nurses

Private community  partnership-sector

Outcomes with patient satisfaction

Health is not a standalone topic

Four pillars of public health . Hygiene , water , sanitation and nutrition

Protocols & treatment guidelines

Soft skills

Tax on unhealthy products and foods

Challenge is huge country , diverse population , demographics and poor infrastructure .

Why doctors don’t go to rural india ? Poor infrastructure for families and staying locally  coupled with no infrastructure for operations in rural

Several solutions few execution is the problem

Following inputs were given in the format the party needed ( Point wise );

Primary care :

1. Rural healthcare centres be accessible 24 X 7 using technology – Health Helplines

2. Mobile applications on phones connected to ASHA workers etc

3. Clinic on Ambulance model

4. 75 % of the funding of healthcare should go to Primary care

Refer the article on primary care

Child Health 

1. Incorporate health in school curriculum from class IV onwards

2. Pictorial charts and audio-visual films to teach hygiene and health

3. Health parameters be reported in annual and six monthly report cards

4. Junk foods be banned in and around school premises

5. Calorific and nutritional value be written on every packaged food items in relation to RDCA

6. 3 % of the curriculum marks be allocated to health of the student

7. Health & Hygiene be included in school curriculum as an exam based paper from class 4th onwards

Health IT 

1. All programs must be backed by an IT backbone

2. Mobile health record ( PHR ) as an alternative to electronic health record be linked to Aadhaar card

3. Reporting , surveillance and monitoring all programs through live data reporting at the taluka, district and national level

4. Standards and protocols for  all the treatments be issued , so that the AAM AADMI is not fleeced by unscrupulous people in the name of healthcare / treatment

5. All village sub centres be connected via telemedicine and mobile healthcare

6. At least 2 % of the healthcare budgets be spent on Healthcare IT

Chronic diseases 

1. Mass screenings be made available through pharmacies across the nation for diabetes , hypertension & obesity

2. Disease Management Programs be launched for all chronic diseases

3. mobile health be used for chronic disease management

4. Those with habits of smoking and drinking should have a higher co-pay to seek universal healthcare benefits ,  so that the healthy should not subsidise the ‘irresponsible’ sick people

5. Companies spending on wellness should be given incentives

Public health :

1. Focus on healths should be centred on wellness and not just on treatment

2. 75 % of the health budget should be spent on prevention and promotion

3. Corporate and five-star hospitals in urban india / metros should be taxed (levied  5% surcharge )  to subsidise the healthcare delivery in rural India

4. Set up the epidemiological data

We should change the slogan from ‘Health for all’ to ‘All for Health’

Is it divestment or a buy back through a family controlled firm


On 8th February , 2013, i wrote about the ‘Oxytocin’ injections that the Government is giving to our economy to draw out milk…….here is the proof.

Life Insurance Corporation was the most dependable automated teller machine for the government in the past year, buying record amounts of bonds and stocks of public-sector firms. Which was shown as ‘successful divestment by the Government’.

The state-run insurer’s purchase of government bonds rose 20%, and it bought nearly 40% of the shares sold via offer for sale (OFS) in four out of total seven PSUissues, said people familiar with the investments.

Of the Rs 4.67 lakh crore raised by the government through securities, LIC provided over Rs 1.10 lakh crore, or 21.4% of the total figure.

LIC invested Rs 236 crore in Nalco (35% of the OFS size), Rs 142 crore in RCF (45%), Rs 608 crore in Hindustan CopperBSE 0.87 % (44%), Rs 923 crore in NTPCBSE -0.35 % (5%), Rs 1,069 crore in SAIL (71%) and Rs 282 crore in NMDCBSE 2.50 % (4.7%).

LIC had contributed 81% to the government’s Rs 14,000-crore mop-up from share sales in 2011-12 by investing Rs 11,400 crore in ONGC

LIC invests in government securities with a view to holding them till maturity, and mark-to-market losses in the interim are not good. It would be a good practice to evaluate returns on redemption each time it happens and compare it with benchmark government bond rates. “Any shortfall in the return should be compensated by the government,”

Also, LICs mandate to invest 50 % in Government securities should be re-looked .

So the big question is , was this really divestment or a ‘back door buyout’ & a ‘face saver’ from a state controlled financier with public money, which could have yielded better returns had the LIC invested into blue chip companies  . We all know that the state run PSUs will perform poorly when compared to other blue chip firms . Does it not warrant a CAG inquiry into the management ( mismanagement ) of LICs investments under duress ( from Chidambaram ) ?

LIC is failing in its fiduciary responsibilities to its investors ( people of this country who buy insurance policies from LIC ) , who invest Rs. 450 crore a day in LIC . Time to raise this issue and realise , that the actual divestment figure shown by the Government was a back door forced buyback by a family firm ( Government’s family firm- LIC )

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Source : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/lic-turns-out-to-be-the-governments-atm-buys-record-amount-of-bonds-and-psu-stocks/articleshow/19313481.cms

Vehicle sales prove a depressing point about the Indian economy


Please see the data below .  If you carefully examine the data ,  a few things are apparent ;

1. Sales drop in tractors indicate poor state of affairs in agri- rural India ( decline in agricultural sector )

2. Sales drop in Medium and heavy ( M&H) segment indicate actual decline in industrial output

3. Sales drop in light commercial vehicles (LCV ) indicate that the ‘Public sentiment’ is negative .

In the tractor segment 3,44,911 units were produced as against 3,72,282 units in the same period of last FY, registering  7% decline according to the data of Tractor Manufacturers Association [TMA].

As per the  data of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers [SIAM], total production in M& H segment was 2,11,530 vehicles against 2,72,400 in the same period of last financial year.

Source : http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/steep-fall-in-commercial-vehicle-production-in-apr-dec-113012500139_1.html

VE Commercial Vehicle sales down 20% in December

By PTI Jan 01 2013 , New Delhi

Tags: News
Automaker VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV) today reported a 20.17 per cent fall in its total sales at 4,032 units in December, 2012.The company, which is a joint venture between the Volvo Group and Eicher Motors, had sold 5,051 units in the same month in 2011.Domestic sales decreased to 3,598 units in December 2012 from 4,512 units in the year-ago period, a decline of 20.26 per cent, VECV said in a statement.
Heavy commercial vehicle sales slipped by 27.80 per cent to 678 units from 939 units in December
Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Economy to grow 6 % ? Are we fooling ourselves !


Car sales in India slumped 25.7 percent in February, the biggest fall in more than 12 years and the fourth consecutive monthly slide, an industry body said on Monday, as sluggish economic growth continues to weigh on demand.

The industry is expected to see it first decline in annual sales in a decade as high interest rates and rising fuel costs in Asia’s third-largest economy put off buyers in a market that was once one of the world’s most promising.

Automakers sold 158,513 cars in India last month, data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) showed. Car sales are down 4.6 percent for the first 11 months of the fiscal year ending in March, it said.

“There is no improvement in the market sentiment. People have more or less stopped discretionary purchases,” Sugato Sen, deputy director general of SIAM told Reuters.

“This has really impacted the bottom of the pyramid, people who buy the smaller cars,” he said, referring to the slowing economy that is expected to grow 5 percent, a decade low. “That is getting reflected in the numbers.”

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/03/11/india-autos-cars-idINDEE92A04R20130311

Our Finance Minister is now doing road shows in Hong Kong, Japan etc to attract investors ….. If the Finance Minister of India has to take to road shows, Indian economy is entering a ‘No show’ time ……

This is what i have been writing for the past one year ……..Wake up call for our ‘Learned Handicapped’ Politicians, who are disconnected from the ground realities

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Statements of Dr.Man Mohan Singh in the past one week


Some people have called it an aggressive speech , some have been taken aback . I rate Man Mohan Singh as politician under the ‘Learned Handicapped category’ , who can speak well , but cannot deliver physically  .

Economy Downgrade and Downfall – Both are a foregone conclusion


Exactly a year ago ( March, 2012), i wrote about the ‘tough times’ India is likely to pass through . Read this link https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/22/have-we-oversold-the-india-story/

Again , six months back ( 11 October , 2012 )  , i wrote that India is heading towards an economic disaster . https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/
After the recent budget  ,i have expressed my views clearly on the year 2013-14. So far, all predictions have stood the test of time and proved right …..
My last blog was written on 01 March 2013, https://commonmansblog.com/2013/03/01/budget-2013-14/

I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..

My belief is that in 2013-14;

1. This Government will struggle to revive growth

2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down

3. Manufacturing sector will slow down

4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )

5. Tax collections will go down

6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested

7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections

8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .

Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy

Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com 

 
Today, my friend from the US send me this link http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-headed-for-economic-doom-prominent-US-thinktank-says/articleshow/18772325.cms?. Which talks about ‘India headed for economic doom’ according to a prominent US Think Tank ….. Well, i have said that a year ago with all the supporting data…. and dwelled much more in detail
 
 
This  Government wants to spend more , earn more only on the basis of ‘Hope’, accepting a fiscal deficit of USD 75 Billion ! Which to me, appears to be a foolish and insane ! I have still not got a convincing answer about where this USD 75 Billion dollar will come from ? FDI or FII ? This country ( Economy ) is waiting not just for a downgrade , but for a downfall !
 
UPA – I was a classic case of the Government being ‘Exposed’ to time driven growth , and UPA – II is a unmistaken case of ‘Exposure’ of this failed , clueless & corrupt dynastic Government
We need serious action . Opposition is also on the verge of letting down this nation
Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Budget 2013-14


I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..

My belief is that in 2013-14;

1. This Government will struggle to revive growth

2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down

3. Manufacturing sector will slow down

4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )

5. Tax collections will go down

6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested

7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections

8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .

Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy

Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Making Delhi safer


Delhi has an area of 1483 Sq. kms and a population of 1.9 Crore, and there are 75169 police men including 5356 women cops . So how can Delhi be made safer ?

So there are 50.68 policemen for each square KM. To me, this appears to be a good number per Sq. km.

Delhi has 149 police stations .

So , if we need to make Delhi secure . We might not need to add more police force just focus on deployment .

There are 617 PCR vans , but out of them 74 are off duty or dysfunctional . So, effective number of PCR vans are 543 . So ,  one Van for every 2.4 KM ( 2.7 KM , if we take out the dysfunctional vans  ) …

So, in a real sense , the Delhi state is not insecure for want of more force , but needs a more ‘effective force’.. I believe, the police personnel are so grossly involved in ‘making money’ , and getting ‘lucrative postings’ and then trying to make good the investment  , that they are not interested in security of the residents in Delhi at all. They are just ‘reactive’ and not a ‘proactive’ police .

I would recommend cutting the police force by 50 % , and increasing the salaries by 50 %,  and getting tough on corruption within  the force would make the things change . Also, we need ‘surveillance’ for politicians and the Delhi police need not provide security to them ,  and their ‘party workers’ should safe guard their leaders and not the police force . Though , the police could train the party workers for the security duty .

Also, each police station should not be having more than 10 police personnel at any point in time including 2 female police personnel

Roping in civil police volunteers with proper back ground check will do the trick of proving more timely action .

Also, FIR’s should be recorded over SMS / online , to avoid the cases of police not registering FIR’s at all . The format for FIR should be available to the public with basis information

Time to think radical to bring about the change

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com

Oxytocin injection and UPA’s financial policies make a perfect analogy


 Indian milkman uses oxytocin injection twice a day to extract milk from his cattle.

Greedy dairymen inject cattle with veterinary Oxytocin to produce more milk. It is used to force the cow to give milk even after severe beatings and stress. However, it destroys the cow’s reproductive system and she goes dry in just 3 years. She is then abandoned.

A substantial part of the oxytocin injected into the cow seeps into the milk. It is very harmful for humans who unwittingly are made to consume an artificially created hormone. Humans face all the harmful effects of this drug. Children are most susceptible to its effects (it is known to have caused imbalanced hearing and weak eyesight). Common symptoms are exhaustion and loss of energy. Expecting mothers should avoid milk that may have been adulterated with oxytocin because:

– Oxytocin increases the risk of post-partum hemorrhage

– Individual women may be hypersensitive to oxytocin and it can inhibit breastfeeding.

– Oxytocin seriously affects the growth of hormones, especially in females, because of which minor girls attain early puberty.

Oxytocin is also found in phenomenal proportions in beef and other meat. Over 75% of all beef are known to have high and dangerous level of oxytocin content.

The Government of India has acknowledged the negative effects of oxytocin and has declared it as a scheduled substance.

But why I am trying to teach you veterinary science?  You must know that FDI in retail, or selling the stakes in Public sector units ( PSU’s ), the one time sale of spectrum, reducing CRR & Chidambaram’s budget are nothing but a dose of ‘Oxytocin’ to our ‘Gau maa’ – Mother India.  We will, for sure, temporarily increase the GDP & show some growth in GDP, but the long-term impact would be painful to our economy. Hope good sense will prevail and we will find ‘sustainable models for rural income and consumption’ & focus on sustainable rural economic model to avoid an overdose of Oxytocin for our economy, which will kill it forever…

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com

Today it is a fatwa for a girls rock band , tomorrow it will be for singing our national anthem


Anyone is free to practice any lawful activity / profession under the constitution of India . Singing is one such activity / profession. Issuing a fatwa against a consitutional act should be treated anti-constitutional / antinational, and legal action be taken irrespective of caste or religion . Else, someone, someday, will isssue fatwa for not singing our national anthem . We are a progressive nation and cannot accept such regresive fatwa’s in our country

This fatwa business must stop immediately . Only courts can issue orders in India .

Hotels , airports , airlines and the fiscal deficit …. who is the culprit ?


Last month, I came across two interesting news , and I thought that I must put a comparison

29th January , 2013 in The Economic Times , it was reported that , Civil Aviation Minister , Ajit Singh has written 20 letters in 9 months for new airports in Uttar Pradesh to the Chief Minister , Akhilesh Yadav.

In the January 2013 issue of Forbes India , I had also read this interesting quote

“Atal Bihari Vajpayee use to narrate a story from the mid-1950’s when he was a young MP in a parliament led by Nehru. Parliament was debating building The Ashoka Hotel, India’s first luxury hotel t be constructed by the state. In one of the debates, Vajpayee said the job of the Government is to build hospitals, not hotels. Nehru was furious at the intrusion of the junior MP from a virtually non-existent party. He told Vajpayee that he didn’t understand anything and added that the state would build hospitals from the hotel’s profits. Decades later, Vajpayee would joke that the hotel was still making losses ( Shourie’s ministry nearly sold it ) and the state had failed to build enough hospitals .

We know that our current ‘Heavy industries minister’ Praful brought wide bodied dreamliners a few years ago when Air India was already grasping for breath, and last week , the ministry put out tenders for sale and re-lease of these dream liners. Should Praful be a minister or in one of the Tihar cells ?

You are the best judge as to what India needs ? A few politicians are just shooting from the mouth without applying their brains and causing billions of dollars of direct loss and much more opportunity loss indirectly

Shoot first ( without an aim ) ……principle of the Government


Centre for Participatory Democracy

With the UID scheme involving a Rs 5,000 crore rollout in the initial stage, now, it was felt the proposal be subjected to a more detailed examination by a GoM ! Can you imagine how the public money is being spent without having clarity ?  This is not just a blatant loot of the public money , but a plunder more brutal than what Mughals did !  On one side , we have 300 million starving , one the other side , this Government is throwing away the money on its whims and fancies in the name of a common man ?

The Cabinet discussion on Thursday ( 31st January 2013) revealed that , the ministerial panel was not immune from contradictory and blurred perceptions about Aadhaar, as UID is known, with some ministers saying they had received a card along with a number.

Confusion over whether the unique identity number is a number, a card or both, and concerns over UID and the National Population Register duplicating functions prompted the Cabinet to refer UPA-2’s ambitious project to a group of ministers.

Differences persisted as concern was also expressed over duplication or overlap between the National Population Register (NPR) and the UID. Both processes involve a similar collection of biometric data including iris scans.

And this is being done after spending thousands of crores of the hard-earned money, when we have a dangerous levels of external debt and fiscal deficit ?   Why have we not converted NPR into UID ?

This Government follows the principle ‘Shoot without a target’ in the name of the common man.

Most of the Government schemes have been executed with no end in sight and this is what is faulty with the Government .

Time to question this Government

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Indian democracy under threat !


A lot is being talked about India being the biggest Democracy . If the elected representatives are not feeling secure enough to discharge their duties , It is time to change the Government that has made India a  soft state , when it comes to handling terrorists and terrorism !

Srinagar, Jan 13 : As many as 28 sarpanches (village council chiefs) and panches (council members) from Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla district Sunday said they had resigned from their posts due to threats to their lives.

A total of 22 sarpanches and panches, from Sopore area of Baramulla, told media persons they were resigning their positions because of threats from separatist militants, while six others from the same area sent their resignation letters to the widely-circulated ‘Greater Kashmir’ daily to be published as paid advertisements in Monday’s issue.

A sarpanch at Bomai village near Sopore town was killed by separatist militants on Friday while another panch, a woman belonging to Harda Shiva village of the same area, was critically injured in another militant attack Saturday.

Doctors in Sopore had referred the injured panch to the super specialty Sher-e-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences Soura (SKIMS) here. Attending doctors say she is still in critical condition.

Panchayat elections were held after 30 years across Jammu and Kashmir in 2011. Despite threats from the separatists, an overwhelming majority of voters turned out in the rural areas to elect their representatives.

Since their elections, thousands of elected village representatives have been seeking security cover. The state government maintains that individual security to every sarpanch and panch is not possible, but individual security to some of them based on threat perceptions was being considered besides domination of areas where guerrillas are still believed to be operating.

 http://www.newsreporter.in/28-village-council-chiefs-members-resign-in-kashmir-48102

Is Indian Government lying to the world about its fiscal condition ?


Last week , i was in Delhi and met up with two friends who gave me shocking news .

One friend works as a vendor to Ministry of Defence ( MOD ). He informed that the MOD is not in a position to pay for the orders already placed as there is no money available .Always, MOD was flush with funds , and this is happening for the first time in history

Also, a senior official of the Ministry of Health informed that , they are planning with money ! This means that there is no money with the ministry but meetings with regards to planning are going on

Corroborating these two meetings with RBI’s news ( dated 5th Nov , 2011)  that , RBI  cannot pay interest on CRR. I am afraid if India has already fallen off the fiscal cliff !

News web link is http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-11-05/news/34925243_1_reserve-ratio-percentage-of-deposits-banks-finance-ministry

By the way, Indian Government is borrowing at the rate of 1.5 lac rupees per second to run the Government this year . Nothing more to write . I believe that the Government owes an explanation

Outsource the registering of FIRs


Dear Justice Verma,

Wish you a very happy new year .

It  is a an open fact that police does not register FIRs to keep their record better for their own good , and desist people from registering an FIR.

It is time that we opt any or all of these three measures ;

1. Online reporting of FIRs

2. Reporting via Mobile phones

3.Outsourcing of FIRs to private players

If we can privatise issuing of passports to TCS, digitisation of post offices to Infosys, issuing of Aadhaar cards to private soft ware companies . Why hesitate from privatising National FIR Reporting  ( NFR) ?

Once the FIR is reported , it should be examined by legal experts and passed on the appropriate authority for action .

Also, crimes happen as police are not in touch with the locals . Suppose a city has 40,000 Sq km area. Administration should depute one police man / women for 1 sq. km, and this police should be connected to all the residents in the area and be responsible for any crime / incident in the area. This is the best way to keep the crimes low and infuse a sense of trust in the system for the common man. Of course, administration could supplement the police with public surveillance and volunteers under each police person

Time to make radical reforms in police :

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 
Centre for Participatory Democracy

New Year Gift to Ambani’s and a crore- crore scam to the nation – Happy New Year – 2013


This scam is the mother of all scams ; earlier , we have heard of the lac crore scams , but his is a crore- crore scam…….

The Maharashtra government has decided to come up with the separate policy for the Mukesh Ambani’s special economic zone (SEZ) located at Ulwe, Navi Mumbai. “The government has decided to frame a separate policy for Ambani which will be declared shortly,” Bhushan Gagrani, CEO Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC), told DNA.

Chief minister Prithviraj Chavan and industrial minister Narayan Rane had revealed a new industrial policy on January 2 which allows corporate firms to use 40% of their total area of SEZ for the construction and sale of houses and commercial shops. Under this, 35,000 acres of land will be eligible for the construction of houses across the state. The policy however will not be applicable for the Ambani owned SEZ in Navi Mumbai.

According to sources, Mukesh Ambani, his close aid Anand Jain and Reliance Industries, owns nearly 7,500 acres of land acquired under SEZ across the state. In Navi Mumbai and Raigad, Ambani has got almost 3,500 acres of land which is close to proposed Mumbai Trans Harbour Sea Link (MTHL) and Navi Mumbai international airport. “The current property rate in localities near the Ambani SEZ is between Rs3,000- Rs5,000 per sqft. The government may open 40% of the land for the housing and commercial purpose,” said real estate experts from Navi Mumbai. “Government is testing the mood of the people with this new industrial policy. If there is not much opposition then they may allow Ambani to use 50-60% of land for construction of houses. The reasons given will be scarcity of houses and a need to ease skyrocketing housing prices,” revealed senior government officials, on the condition of anonymity.

Ulka Mahajan, the anti-SEZ activist is not surprised with the government’s decision to create a separate policy for Ambani. “While acquiring the land, the government had given him extension thrice. “During last extension, he had crossed the deadline still he was allowed to acquire the land by extending deadline in 2008. Even, initially, his SEZ website was named as the Ambani Desh. So, it is obvious that there should be separate for policy for him and his separate Desh,” she said.

“Government may tweak the policy and change the rules for Ambani, but the locals will not sell themselves to Ambani,” Mahajan said.

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_govt-to-gift-ambani-sez-with-separate-policy_1786062

Actions speak louder than words


Today, the CJI, Altamas Kabir , who justified the public reaction against the ghastly incident, said the offence could have been averted had the Supreme Court guidelines on removal of tinted glasses from the vehicles been followed. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Delhi-gang-rape-CJI-Altamas-Kabir-calls-for-speedy-trial-of-case/articleshow/17859854.cms

If so is the case , why not try the Commissioner of Traffic police , Delhi for rape ? Why make these catchy statements in public which cannot be actioned upon ?

Time to teach these lousy , highly paid & irresponsible bureaucrats a lesson . Since this statement comes form the highest judicial authority in India , it must be actioned upon .

Delhi Gang-rape exposes many facts


Our health minister recently said, that AIIMS is amongst the best in the world when it comes to medical care ! Then why do we need an air ambulance to send the gang-rape victim to Singapore for treatment ?

This gang rape has exposed a few facts ;

1. Girls or police – no one is safe in the capital
2. Government has no experience of handling the ground realities and is arrogant to the core
3. Healthcare facilities in India are not up to the standard.
4. Youth in India are not going to sit back and relax , but will take to the streets to bring out the change – Arab Spring

Rape is a rarest of rare crime ! It needs deterrents like

A ) Castrate the rapist

B) Tattoo the crime on the hand , and on the forehead

C ) In fact, all the criminals should pay for their stay in jails

A call to action


A debate has started following the sad demise of constable Subhash Tomar whether he died of a cardiac arrest or due to injuries from the protestors ? If the police says , that the constable died of injuries inflicted by the public, it is a proof of the inefficient Delhi police ! If amidst such a tight security, a police constable can be thrashed and he dies , Can we leave the security of public in the hands of Delhi police who cannot save themselves ? This should immediately lead to reforms in the police administration . My cab driver ( who is friends with a constable from Chandni Chowk area ) told me, that the posting of a constable in Chandni Chowk area cost Rs. 50 lac , and the posting is for two years only , and that a constable in his first year of service in Delhi police buys his car ! What kind of safety or service are we expecting from such a corrupt police !

Even our ‘Thek Hai’ Prime Minister realised that besides himself , the home minister and others also had daughters only after a week of the gruesome gang-rape ! If the PM justifies the anger of public then why did the Delhi police press charges of murder against 8 protestors ? There is no correlation between the situation and actions on ground and PM’s address to the nation from door-darshan !

Government should be prepared for the worst in the times ahead …..Hope that the good sense will prevail soon, and Government will shun its arrogance, and think realistically and act practically with the speed needed at this juncture . Youth of the nation cannot be convinced anymore with speeches and debates on TV . It is a call to action !

Delhi


Yesterday, my cab driver in Delhi asked me the reason for rapes like the one that happened recently.

I told him that three major reasons could be;

1. Vulgarity in MEDIA ( 1/3rd)
2. Drinking ( 1/3rd )
3. Weak laws and weaker law enforcement (1/3rd)

Government is responsible for all , and we are equally to blame as we voted this Government to power & relied blindly on it ….

I could see a curfew like situation in Central Delhi in the name of section 144.Which proves how much the Government is afraid of protests ! Time to realise the power of Janta ( Pubic )  !

Also , one thought that came to my mind . If the citizens cause a loss to the public property, we are supposed to pay fine & compensate for the loss . Then why should the Delhi Government not pay compensation to the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation for shutting down the 9 metro stations for 3 days!

Why spectrum auctions didn’t take off


A lot of debate and ‘political firing’ has been happening across party lines ( within parties as well ! ) about the wrong calculation of the loss due to spectrum auctions to the tune of Rs1.76 lac crore as computed by CAG, and a mere collection of Rs 9,407 crore this time against the expected Rs.40,000.00 crore has been quoted as the reason. This is a totally flawed argument .

On September 24th , 2012 , our telecom minister announced that, in the new telecom policy , there would be ‘One nation- free roaming’  . This implicitly  indicated that , it  would move to one circle instead of multiple circles !  Taking a cue from the new telecom policy, mobile operators have ‘smart-checked’ the government by not bidding at all for expensive circles like Delhi and Mumbai or remain contended with what they have . As most likely , with this policy of ‘One nation- free roaming’ , all operators would be national players automatically and no need to pay 10’s of thousands of crores ! And this may be the reason for poor collection during these auctions , as the policy environment has changed than what used to be during Raja’s time . You cannot play a game of hockey and apply rules of cricket and decide who wins !

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com

 

Has the country’s central bank ( Reserve Bank of India – RBI ) collapsed ?


On 22nd March 2012, i had written that we have ‘Oversold the India story’ https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/ ) , and what i had predicted for the economy in the April , May and June quarter,  happened ! 

Again , on 11th October 2012, i wrote on my blog ‘How India was fast turning from a ‘Emerging economy’ to a ‘Submerging Economy’ ( web link  :  https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/ . Now , read the fact about our Central Bank . As i said earlier , i am not worried on the 2014 for elections , but for the economic scene that will unfold in 2013 for the average Indian middle class , we are building a disaster  & fooling ourselves ! It is a call to action !

On November 5th ,2012 ,  The Economic Times carried the report that , the country’s central bank , Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) would run into losses if asked to pay interest on mandatory percentage of deposits banks have to park with the centre bank , called the Cash Reserve Ratio ( CRR).  The RBI has stopped paying interest on such mandatory reserves since 2007.  Finance ministry had suggested the bank to pay 7 % interest on these deposits . 

 Does it mean that the country’s central bank has collapsed ?  If yes , why have we not discussed this in parliament, and are looking at FDI and other ways like stake sales in PSU’s and auctions of the sovereign assets to hide this news and infuse money in the system . 

 
Prime Minister and Finance Minister owe and explanation to this nation on this issue .
 
 

NEW DELHI: The finance ministry has decided to review the expenditure and reserves position of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after the central bank indicated that it is not in position to pay interest on the reserves banks maintain with it.

A government official downplayed it as a routine review of the reporting structure and disclosure requirements of the RBI, but it comes at a time when there is already obvious tension between the finance ministry and the central bank over the conduct of monetary policy.

“It is the government which tables the annual report of RBI in Parliament, so there is nothing wrong if it (government) wants to know how RBI prepares its balance sheet. We are not questioning them or raising objections,” a ministry official said.

However, another finance ministry official admitted that the review started after the RBI had indicated that it would run into losses if asked to pay interest on mandatory percentage of deposits banks have to park with the central bank, called the cash reserve ratio (CRR). The RBI had stopped paying interest on such mandatory reserves since 2007.

The finance ministry had suggested that the RBI should pay 7% interest on these deposits, pitching it as a measure that will help lower rates even if the central bank does not ease monetary policy. It had argued that all major central banks either do not mandate a reserve ratio or pay an interest on the mandatory reserves they ask banks to set aside.

“RBI had made certain arguments. Now, we want to understand their expenditure sub heads, format of disclosures so that we both are on the same page,” the official said.

The government is studying RBI’s expenditure, revenue, contingency reserves and investments, he added. On Tuesday, the RBI dashed hopes of a rate cut, but lowered the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

Please check more eye-opening statistics on Indian Economy on my blog .

From January , 2013, i will be working full-time to figure out the economic model for India , that will take the country out of the current crisis

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 
Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy


India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy

On 22nd March 2012 , I wrote this on my blog and also sent the same to leading public figures .I had stated dwelling  in detail about how,  ‘ Have we oversold the India story’, and this was much before the bad news starting sinking in !

Link to the blog is  https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/ .

This blog clearly mentioned that we must be prepared for bad news in April – May – June Quarter , and we know that,  India was downgraded as an economy by the international rating agencies ( S&P & Fitch ) and many Indian banks also faced the brunt , many retailers are gasping for breath ….

This time , I have decided to write about the story of how Indian economy would  enter a dark phase if immediate steps are not taken ,and this note is not against anyone but for everyone who wants to see India doing well !  I have tried my best to put data for every statement ( Besides Almighty , everyone should believe in data !).

So now , it is time to peep in the story of how an emerging economy can become a submerging economy .

Let us look at the following data :

Sector – Industry / company Financials ( Loans / NPAs) Source / Remarks
Telecom Sector Rs. 2.00 Lac Crore debt TOI, 26th September , 2012.
Banking Sector NPAs Rs.1.37 Lac crore as of June’12 Mint , 7th September, 2012
Banking Sector According to RBI’s assessment , a fifth of all re-structured loans go   bad . According to RBI, as on March 31, banks had Rs.2.18 Lac worth of   restructured loans on its books Mint, 7th September, 2012
Banking Sector State-run banks  NPA crosses   Rs.1.23 Lac crore Mint , 23/ August/ 2012
Credit card outstanding Rs. 22150.00 Crore As on July/ 21 Ref. ET 14/9/12
Indian Government Total planned borrowing is Rs.5.71 Lac crore for FY 13, of which   Rs.2.0 Lac crore would be in the second half of the fiscal by Dec’12 As per Mint dated September 28, 2012
Banking Sector Report by Credit Suisse group AG points that exposure to 10 large   Industrial groups constitute 13 % of the entire banking system Mint, August 21, 2012.
Banking Sector As of 27th July, Indian banks had loans outstanding of   Rs.36,600.00 Crore to the mining and quarrying sector, and Rs.93,170.00 Crore   to the Telecom sector Mint, 12th September, 2012.
Power Sector As of March, 2011, the accumulated losses of the State power distribution   companies are estimated to be alone Rs.1.90 lac crore which, by now,  would have crossed  Rs.2.0 lac crore IBN Live dated 23rd, September,  2012
Air India ( NACIL) Rs.67520.00 crores in loans & dues NDTV Profit, 8th Feb, 2012
Pantaloons ( Kishore Biyani’s ) Rs.3300.00 crore ET, 14th June 2012 . After selling a portion of its   apparel business to Aditya Birla Group. Before the sell-off , the debt of   Pantaloon was about a billion dollars
Reliance ADA Group Rs.86700.00 crore  FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
GMR Rs.33600.00 croreFY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
JSW Rs.40,200.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Jaypee Rs.45,400.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Lanco Rs.29,300.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Essar Group Rs.93,800.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Vedanta Rs.93,500.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Adani Group Rs.69500.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Videocon Rs.27,300.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
GVK Rs.21,000.00 crore F’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Fortis Healthcare Rs.6237.00 crore Business Line August 15th, 2012
King Fisher Airlines Rs.7500.00 crore The Hindu, July 2nd , 2012
Losses of top three oil marketing companies Rs.40,500.00 crore in April-May-June’2012 Forbes India , Sept 03, 2012
Airtel Rs.60,018 Till Q1, 2012 Business Line , Aug 3, 2012

The total debt level of  ten companies alone (Adani, Essar, GMR, GVK, JSW, Jaypee Group, Lanco, Reliance ADA, Vedanta and Videocon) has jumped 5 times in the past five years to Rs 5,39,500 crore  ( Indian Express , September 06, 2012 )

Business Line dated August 26, 2012: Credit Suisse said that the aggregate debt of the ten groups accounts for about 13 per cent of total bank loans and a whopping 98 per cent of the entire banking system net worth.

“Therefore, surprisingly now in terms of concentration risk, Indian banks rank higher than most of their Asian and BRIC counterparts,” it added.

The report said a strong loan growth of Indian banking system in past five years is increasingly being driven by a select few corporate groups.

“Given the high leverage, poor profitability and pressure from lenders, most of these debt heavy groups have initiated plans to divest some of their assets. However, given that most domestic infrastructure developers are already over-geared, demand for these assets may be limited,” Credit Suisse said.

Each of these groups alone account for 1-2 per cent of total banking system loans, the report said, while noting that all banks appear to have high exposure to the same few groups.

“With the economic slowdown and a downturn in these sectors, multiple assets of each group appear stressed and financials of these groups are stretched,” the report said.

Bank’s exposure to real estate sector ( ET dated 22nd August , 2012)

Bank Exposure to real estate FY 2011-12 ( Rs. Crore )
State Bank of India 144668.38
ICICI Bank 81421.73
Axis Bank 52730.39
Punjab National Bank 48474.59
IDBI Bank 36784.47
Bank of Baroda 22157.40
StanChart 26027.78
HDFC Bank 25020.26
Total exposure Rs. 437285.00 Crore

Despite an exposure / investment of about Rs.4.37 lac crore from banks  ,still five lac houses remain unsold ( ET, 22/ 08/2012 & TOI dated 18/ 09/ 2012. ) . So land became costly as the builders brought them with loans , houses became expensive due to builder cartels and now that houses are not getting sold , all are a part of the downturn ……..no solution is in sight except for NPA’s and its cascading affect later .

Clearly, Indian economic story lacks ‘depth’ but has been built on ‘debt’ and this is a painful bubble waiting to burst …. So a common man must have enough savings to last a few years if without a job  !

July 26, 2012 in TOI, it was reported that at least eight cases of FDI in some obscure real estate companies – each worth more than USD 100 Million – from Singapore have come under scanner , with Income tax Overseas unit (ITOU) having investigated them for alleged round tripping . Suspicion was raised when authorities detected huge FDI inflows into some little known real estate firms in India in the form of equity participation . A senior finance ministry official said they suspect these real estate firms to be front entities of some corporate houses and their black money has been routed through Singapore to acquire real estate in the country . All these FDIs coming from Singapore pertain to 2011. India received Rs.1.74 Lac crore worth of FDIs in 2011-12, of which Singapore contributed third highest at Rs.24,700.00 , after Mauritius ( Rs. 46,700.00 crore ) and the U.K ( Rs. 45,000.00 Crore).  So , now we can understand why an Indian’s politician’s family have a flat in Singapore and why Indian Government along with a few ‘parties with vested interests’ are pushing  for FDI ! Does it also not answer the question why Government opened the real estate sector to FDI in 2005 ? So that money stashed abroad can be brought back in real estate sector, and further money could be made by investing in and increasing the prices by buying land !  Does Lavasa ring a bell in your ear !

In absolute terms, bank’s bad assets have doubled in three years between 2009 and 2012  – from Rs. 68216 crore to Rs.1.37 Lac crore ( Mint 21st August , 2012).  Bad assets in coal, iron and steel , mining , construction , textiles and aviation sector have been on the rise . Bankers see stress in telecom and power sector, too.  The biggest beneficiaries of loan restructurings are large industrial houses in the manufacturing sector – 8.24 % of loans given to industries have been recast. In the services sector , the comparable figure is 3.99 % , and in agriculture loans , 1.45 %.  It is clear that the small borrowers don’t get relief  from loan servicing but the large industrial houses have gotton one ( Mint , 21, August ,2012. ). According to the same article , public sector banks have 90 % of the restructured assets , and this in my view clearly states one fact – a strong political – bureaucratic and business houses nexus to make loans and buy private jets and show companies in losses to the investors !  What right do the business houses have to question the Government on profligacy and spending when these business houses have huge debts but have their CEO’s / promoters taking home 10’s of crore in salaries plus stakes in companies and still flying private jets on borrowed money ! We know of the large business house where the debts are more than revenue but the flamboyant chairman / promoter flies on private jets ! Such company’s ( any company that has over Rs. 50 crore external debt ), boards must be restructured by the MCA (Ministry of Corporate Affairs)  and independent directors with fixed term and remuneration should be appointed by the Government , so that the loans and shareholders money is not misappropriated by such promoters in the name of expenses and privileges  !

Three more developments to be noted to give you a sense of state of affairs in the Indian economy :

Remarks
India S&P rating is BBB (Minus) . Outlook  – NegativeFitch rating is BBB (Minus ). Outlook – Negative  ( TOI, 26th June, 2012 ).
Bharti Airtel Downgraded by Goldman Sachs and other banks. ET .  10th , August , 2012
Retail Sector Fitch has downgraded the ratings to negative

Agriculture / Food crises : The US is facing a severe drought , and India has witnessed a bad spell of monsoon this year with erratic and unpredictably low rainfall . When India imports pulses and oilseeds , & the prices of these commodities is set to rise. Stock piles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents , raising the food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near record $ 1.24 trillion . Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soya beans and rice will drop 1.8% to a four year low before harvests in 2013, the US department of Agriculture ( USDA) estimates . Crops in the US, the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops . Wheat production in Russia , the fourth largest exporter , will fall 20 % this year , and in Australia , output will decline 19 % and, God forbid, another year of bad spell of rain in India will spell disaster for this country . This situation warrants an emergency action ! On 9th August , 2012 on page 7 of ET, I read an appeal to the GOI by All India Starch Manufacturer’s Association regarding the crises due to non-availability of maize in the domestic market.  Even if starch manufacturers were ready to buy maize at higher prices, it was not available and adding to it was the monsoon failure   !  We are all awaiting a miracle to happen with Wal-Mart et al. But the reality is that these players have not much to contribute. We must not forget that , the supply chain structures in these companies are leaner and they work on shortest inventory, so clearly , these people will not do much for supply chain management . Also, the biggest contribution is stated to be creation of 10 million jobs in India . I wish to ask that these companies have a ROI ( Return on investment ) for each employee and so , clearly , we must see what is the cost that we are going to pay to these MNC chains for them creating 10 million jobs & the Government must come out with a white paper on this ? After all , Wal-Mart is not here in India for charity !  For sure , it would mean we paid will pay them dearly for doing what we could have done 100 times cheaper ! All FDI investments to me appear to be taking the ‘economy in debt’ to ‘sell off’ ( divestment )… We are back to what East India Company did to India but this time , it is not one company, but multiple East India Companies !

Also , a time to look at the sectorial composition of GDP 1950-51 – 2011-12 from CSO data

Agriculture Industry Services
1950-51 53.1 % 16.6 % 30.3 %
2011-12 13.9 % 27 % 59 %

In 1950, India had a population of 350 million and now it is 1210 million. During independence,  the population dependent on agriculture was 72% and now it is  54 %. But except Madhya Pradesh, where agricultural growth has increased to dramatically  , not much is visible in other states .

Infrastructure – Construction firms sector ( Mint , September 11, 2012): for a set of 87 firms with a significant presence in infrastructure , sourced from Capitaline database , these numbers show an increasing difficulty to service debts

For these firms , the interest coverage ratio (ICR), for fiscal 2012, plunged  1.9 times , the lowest in at least five years. In other words , for every Rs. 100 of interest payments, the firms earnings before interest and tax ( EBIT ) stood at Rs.1.90 . The comparable number for 2007 was almost five.

In the fiscal 2012, at least 17 firms did not earn enough to pay the interest ! The list includes some of the bigger and better known firms such as Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd, Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd and GMR Infrastructure Ltd. This might give us a sense of where India is headed . First we oversold the India story, and now we are gonna pay heavily for it ….. !

Emerging Economy – really ? Let’s have a look at the following figures ;

  • According to the NSSO survey( July 2011 – June 2012 ), 10 % of India lives on less than Rs.17 a day . As per the survey , half of the population in rural India was living on a per day expenditure of Rs. 34.33 , and this is after two decades of reforms in India !
  • About 8.3 % of the population is unemployed
  • 54 % of Indian families live in houses that don’t have concrete or brick roof ( Census, 2011 )
  • 47 % of the total households live in houses with mud floors ( Census , 2011 )
  • More than 800 Mn don’t have toilets at home
  • Millions of tonnes of grains are stored in the open as we have no place to store !
  • Tata shut production of passenger vehicles for two days to avoid inventory pile up due to bad economic situation
  • 1/3rd of rural Indians and 1/5th of urban Indians forego treatment due to lack of money
  • 47 % of rural Indians and 31% of urban Indians finance treatment by loans or sale of assets
  • One child dies every 16 seconds due to malnutrition , diarrhoea or pneumonia
  • All major currencies have appreciated against dollar but rupee has weakened . Even Singapore dollar is up by about 50 % compared to rupee last year

GDP & Growth without fundamentals & eventual Collapse :  This is the India’s growth story’s fate . Let me give you two glaring examples and rest you can relate for your conclude;

I have travelled to the draught prone areas, and heartland of farmer’s suicides i.e. Vidharbha region of Maharashtra .  Lanco is setting up a power plant in Wardha and has purchased land for as high as Rs. 25 lac per hectare ( as per the farmers statement ). So  , let’s look at this example where Lanco purchased 7 acre land from a farmer for Rs.1.75 crore . A farmer who was drought and debt ridden for years becomes a millionaire overnight, and buys a SUV for himself along with a rifle , gold jewelry for his wife , builds a pucca house with the money he gets , and the money is spent soon as he did not know how to plan and how much to spend and the land is also gone to Lanco ! Also, money brought in a lot of vices ( please check the number of AIDS patients in the region ! ).   This company Lanco, runs a debt of Rs. 29300.00 crore and has gone for CDR ( Corporate debt restructuring ).  The banks that gave the loan should be ready for a NPA ( Non-performing asset )! So , the farmer , the company Lanco and the bank have become a non-performing asset ….. whereas , the farmer buying a SUV, Gold etc, would have boosted the sale of vehicles , gold, wines, apparel companies temporarily , and soared the rates & increased the GDP ! So this is growth in GDP but not a sustainable one or growth without prosperity !

Let me quote another example :  Country auctioned the airwaves (spectrum), a few years ago for which the companies paid tens of thousands of crore for airwaves. The companies took loans , passed on the cost to consumers ( Co’s were not wrong as they had to get an ROI for their investors ) and finally , like Airtel with over 200 million customers, run into a debt of about Rs. 60,018.00 crore ……….So , let me consider an alternative scenario . If companies were given spectrum for a nominal administrative fee of say Rs. 500.00 crore + 50 % revenue sharing . In that case, the companies would have invested more into infrastructure and services would have been better and much cheaper , also , the Government could have made a cool Rs.80,000.00 crore every year taking the current revenue of all telecom operators to be Rs.160,000,00 crore, with probably very little debt on telecom companies and no such scams !  Today, the telecom sector has a debt of Rs. 200,000.00 crore and government barely gets anything of the total revenue of Rs.160,000.00 crore as its revenue sharing is in lower single digits .  All have lost due to myopic policies of the Government . This is what I call GDP without prosperity ,  and this is what our entire Indian economy is passing through . It has no depth but debt ! What I call as lack of strong fundamentals, for which none of the parties have shown a concrete action plan . Companies have stock valuations and we are measuring our strength on the stock market indices which are not at all in relation to our ground realities ,  and only 2 % people in our country dabble in stock markets whereas 98 % suffer the hallucinations of this economic growth and GDP which is backed by loans , subsidies and political doll outs and have become a drain on our economy  & our economy is becoming a bottomless pit ! Here I will not fail to quote  the maiden address of our former finance minister and current President of India on 15th August , 2012  ‘It is indeed a wake-up call to Indian polity that even 65 years after independence and 74 years after Bose’s observation ( Subhash Chandra Bose in 1938 had flagged at the 51st session of Indian National Congress at Haripura that country’s primary challenges were poverty , illiteracy and hunger ) , the number of poor in the country today outstrip the population of the country in 1947’

All the sovereign wealth should be leased on 50-50 % revenue sharing between the Government & the private sector companies , and never be auctioned ! There is no other sustainable model for our meeting the financing needs and auctions only give a one-time income ! This must be made a policy so that every year , Government can make decent money and invest in the infrastructure,  growth and give good governance to all Indians

Indian population a mere statistics  ? Let us take the example of the recently concluded London Olympics . China with a larger population came 2nd with 38 gold , 27 silver and 23 bronze medals and India came on 55th position amongst 79 nations with zero gold , 2 silver and 4 bronze medals ….. this is what our leaders have led us to ! With committed leadership we must have made it the top by now …..

Let us do a rough sum of Indian economy which has a GDP of approximately Rs. 100 lac crore and we still borrow about Rs. 5.2 lac crore every year, and we already have  debts of about Rs. 45 lac crore . India’s  42 % of the net annual tax revenues of Rs.7.71 lac crore goes in servicing its debt ( Rs.3.20 lac crore ). Another 25 % goes in subsidies ( Rs.1.90 lac crore ) – an annual amount that would actually be Rs.78000.00 crore higher if off-balance sheet fuel subsidies to oil marketing companies were included.  The fiscal deficit of Rs.5.19 lac crore – 5.9 % of nominal GDP – is 67 % of the net central tax revenue . This was detailed in TOI dated 19th August 2012. I had read somewhere that , 54 % of Indian’s income goes in interest payments on debts taken for decades , 30 % is the cost of running the inefficient Government & bureaucracy and 16 % for subsidies ……so I keep wondering , does India have any money at all to invest in infrastructure or for future !!!! ( Hope I am wrong in remembering these numbers and India does better ). If not , time to take action !

According to Apparel Promotion Export Council ( APEC) , an estimated 4.5 million jobs have been lost over the past 3.5 years . Do our policy makers know how an ordinary Indian would survive without a salary for even a week and what pains his family and relatives pass through him being a jobless !

If all of you witnessed the discount sales season, it was advanced and even extended to make up for the shortfall , and this must show the desperation from the companies to meet the numbers . Unfortunately , If corrective steps are not taken immediately , we will have more companies getting into CDR or closure and millions of jobs might be lost till 2015……worst is yet to come !

Let me quote a facts about why India gained political independence and what was the average age of leadership . Maulana Azad became the President of INC at the age of 35 , Bose became the President of INC at the age of 41 and Nehru became the  President of INC at the age of 40… So now we know  why we got political freedom and why we have not been able to get economic freedom ??? For a nation with more than 65 % of the population below 35 years , it is important to take care of the representation of youth to lead this country with fresh innovative ideas for a double digit growth and that too  grounds up. Though our policy makers tell us that we cannot grow at about 8 % , but the fact is that, in 2011 calendar year , 12 countries clocked more than 8 % growth and some of them like Ghana , Iraq , China , Argentina and Turkey are not exactly small . We have been capped by the ‘old school of policy makers’ and their thinking , who believe that they know all and what they do is right ! This has to go now ! We need leaders with a nose on the ground , good governance and a strong political will and rest will fall in place . Government must earn from the rich and middle class, and help upgrade the lower income class to middle class on a ‘mission mode’ basis by empowering them by providing them training , education, healthcare  and technology  .

Our country’s finance ministers have taken to ‘Populonomics’ ( Economics of populism ) , and not ‘economics’, and this has clearly shown the results to the common man . India is heading towards an economic disaster and short cuts like FDI are short lived solutions !

I can bet you that if a party rises above caste , religion ,reservation, dynasty ,  and parochial regional politics, it is sure to win the youth and come to power without taking to populism !

It is the time for the finance minister to move from being an ‘efficient tax collector’ to ‘passionate creator of wealth through innovation & entrepreneurship ’. India is the only country in the world at this time that  has ample opportunities for each problem to be solved and is a fertile basin for innovation ! If you were born as a human- being , you must be lucky, but if you are born as a human -being and that too, in India , you must be the luckiest on earth, and this describes our India today and what it can offer to the world !

All ministries must have wealth creation strategies  ! Just imagine that for the year 2012-13, India will have gross tax receipts of 1,077612 crores and expenditure of Rs.1490925 crore…. Even if we do the sell-offs , we still cannot pay off the Rs.45 lac crores of debts that India has ! Which assets will be left to sell for our next generation ( oh boy that’s too far , I must say in the next 10 years ) ,to sustain our economy ? I think then , our Government will call upon the US President and ask his farmers & companies to come and invest in Indian land and make it more productive , and that will be the final sell off of this once a great nation i.e India

I am not an economist, though , I have studied economics during my graduation ( but I must confess that I do not remember anything I studied during graduation J , and I am glad that I don’t remember anything J) All that I have written here is a common man’s perspective from the data and facts available in the public domain.  I have researched the state of economy well over five months to help our dear policy makers to do a better job and making the life of a common man better and not bitter !

I am leaving to US for two weeks on 14th October evening , and on my return, I will launch www.indiawewant.org ,and would welcome your suggestions and participation

With best wishes

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Economy I Healthcare I Retail I Innovation         

http://commonmansblog.com

 

National Digital Health Plan – NDHP


 Rajendra Pratap Gupta

 President & Member

Board of Directors

September 22, 2012.

Dr.Manmohan Singh

Prime Minister,

Government of India

7, Race Course road, New Delhi -110001.

  Email/ speed-post

Reference: National Digital Health Plan (NDHP)

Dear Dr. Singh,

I am sending this note on behalf of DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance.

About Disease Management Association of India (DMAI) Disease Management Association of India (DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance), was formed by Executives from the Global Healthcare industry to bring all the stake holders of healthcare on one platform. DMAI has been successful in establishing an intellectual pool of top healthcare executives to become an enabler in building a robust healthcare system in India. India is on the verge of building its healthcare system, and it has a long way to go. DMAI is building the knowledge pool to contribute & convert ‘Ideas’ into ‘Reality’, for healthcare in India. DMAI is the only not-for-profit organization focused on population health improvement in India

Let me start by quoting Kathleen Sebelius, Health Secretary of the United States, “Mobile Healthcare is the biggest technology break-through of our time to address our greatest national challenge”. Ms. Sebelius said this last year at the mHealth summit in Washington DC. This statement is more relevant to our country as, though for the developed world, mHealth is another option for healthcare delivery but for a developing country like India, mHealth is the only option!

We urge upon your good selves to initiate the National Digital Health plan – NDHP (Digital Health means Telemedicine, mHealth & technology backed healthcare delivery) for India, and may be, consider to form an inter-ministerial group to give this a definite shape. According to WHO review in 2010, only a quarter of countries worldwide had drawn up a national telemedicine policy or strategy. Let us take the lead in setting up the National Digital Health Plan (NDHP).

With 6 billion mobile phones globally at the end of 2011 and about 960 million cell phones in India, mobile phones provide a matchless platform for delivering change at the grass roots and are a tool

To deliver programs aimed at economic & social inclusion & more importantly, inclusive healthcare.

We must think seriously & act now about incorporating Telemedicine & mHealth (mobile healthcare) in our healthcare system and building a road map of Digital Health for India. With over 800 million people living in rural India and about 640,000 villages as per the latest data of planning commission’s approach paper for the 12th five year plan, it is imperative that we build a national roadmap for telemedicine in India to address the issue of accessibility & affordability with sustainability on one side, and on the other side, for leveraging a global business opportunity for Indian entrepreneurs, like what IT (Information Technology) did to India’s growth story. It is time to replicate the IT success story this time using mHealth and help the industry build a few multi-billion dollar global corporations

Telemedicine is needed for delivering ‘Inclusive healthcare’ to India & also to serve across various sectors like in defence, help in job creation, veterans’ health and disaster management.

Defence services: We need Telemedicine through dedicated satellites for armed forces posted on Naval Ships and remote areas at the border and at Siachen. Also, the ECHS for ex-servicemen could have a healthcare facility through Telemedicine at various polyclinics .This must be initiated and the ECHS clinics must be connected with Army referral centers. US Veterans administration, for e.g., found that overall the practice of telemedicine / mHealth cuts hospitalization by 30 % & admissions for heart failure by 40 %

Disaster Management: During national disasters, Telemedicine & mHealth can be the only healthcare delivery channel for the affected areas and this calls for a Telemedicine road map under National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), at the Prime Minister’s office. During Tsunami in Japan, Continua Health Alliance members came together and gave a solution in a record time. It would have been a double catastrophe, if such a Tsunami ever destroyed paper medical records and the patients had to be moved to a remote place for treatment. Nothing could have been worked without medical devices which were interoperable and an EMR hosted over a cloud. This calls for immediate planning to avoid healthcare disaster along with a natural disaster!

Chronic Diseases:  In the USA, FDA (Food & Drugs Administration) has started approving mHealth applications and two of the insurance companies recently agreed to pay for mHealth applications for diabetic patients. mHealth holds the promise to address the biggest challenge facing our nation i.e. chronic diseases & the implementation of secondary prevention program

With approximately 960+ million cell phone users; healthcare in India will converge to mHealth, and ultimately, this is where all practitioners, payers and users will converge too! It is time to look at mHealth as a tool for ‘Inclusive Healthcare’. With mHealth, ‘Universal Healthcare’ will move faster from a dream to reality!

Earlier, it was said that, ‘An apple a day keeps a doctor away’, and now it is being said rightly that, ‘An app ( mobile application ) a day keeps a doctor away’.

According to the PWC & Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) recent study – 2012, conducted in 10 countries including India, Patients believe that convenience, cost and quality of health in the next three years will change due to mhealth

According to this study;

59 % of the doctors and payers believe that the wide spread adoption of mhealth in their countries is inevitable

In the next 3 years,

57 % of the patients in emerging markets believe that mHealth apps / services will make healthcare more convenient

54 % of the patients in emerging markets believe that mHealth apps / services will improve the quality of care

53 % of the patients believe that mHealth apps / services will substantially reduce the overall cost of care

59 % of the emerging-market patients use at least one mHealth application or service.

The Department of Health, U.K. had set up a WSD (Whole System Denominator) program to help provide an evidence base for setting further policy in this field. This was claimed to be the largest randomized control trial of Telehealth & telecare in the world. The program was launched in May 2008 involving around 6200 patients and 238 GP practices. Early indications from WSD show that, if used correctly, Telehealth can deliver a 15 % reduction in accident & emergency visits, a 20 % reduction in emergency admissions, a 14 % reduction in elective admissions, a 14 % reduction in bed days and an 8 % reduction in tariff costs. They also demonstrate a 45 % reduction in mortality rates

According to Lord Nigel Crisp, Former CEO of NHS, U.K. (National Health Service) and Member, House of Lords, ‘In UK, NHS direct started free health advice service over phone. It has over 6 million subscribers, over 10% of the country’s population’.

For chronic disease patients, Home care based ‘Nuvola It Home Doctor system’ was developed by Telecom Italia in the Piedmont region. As a part of the policy to bring health services closer to the community, patients suffering from chronic diseases monitor certain biological parameters using traditional electro-medical devices and send them to the Telecom Italia data center, using a dedicated mobile phone provided by the hospital. Home-based care is estimated to cost 180 euros compared to 700-1000 euros in hospital. mHealth based home care can provide tremendous relief to geriatric patients in India, in addition to psychiatric patients with the existing ratio of psychiatrists: population nearing 1: 10, 00000

OPD workload in Government district hospitals: In India, the biggest problem in district hospitals is the patient overload in OPD (Outdoor patients department).

By using mHealth / telemedicine, we can provide right timely interventions at the point of care and cut this OPD overload anywhere by 30-60 %.

mHealth as a tool for diplomacy: A few years ago, ISRO had taken up some key initiatives along with the Ministry of External affairs for setting up the ‘PAN network’. It is time to revive that actively, and provide remote consultations, not just in India but in developing countries of Asia & Africa. Telemedicine can be a good tool for diplomacy. I had made a keynote presentation at Lahore, Pakistan under Aman-ki-Asha in May 2012, and telemedicine and mhealth was a key point of discussion to increase collaboration between the two countries. Healthcare is the most impactful tool for political diplomacy with our neighbours who have similar challenges when it comes to healthcare.

Rural Health: With over 640,000 villages where doctors are not willing to work, technology seems to be the best solution and mHealth appears to be the best technology

In Turkey, Acibadem Mobile runs a mHealth nutrition service with 450,000 members. Also, in less than two years, an emergency healthcare service offered in conjunction with Turkish Telecom has grown to 100,000 members. . In Mexico, Medicall Home has five million subscribers who pay US $5 a month on their phone bills in order to access medical advice

Across the border, in Bangladesh, Grameenphone has set up Healthlink to allow its customers to talk to the doctors 24 X 7. This service has fielded 3.5 million calls in the last six years

Strengthening India’s healthcare system: Also, India is presently building on its healthcare system, and the 12th Five Year Plan has been referred to as the ‘Plan for Health’! Now is the right time for the policy makers to ensure that technology is embedded in all programs that the Government is planning to rollout for healthcare delivery. In specific, mHealth has tremendous potential to reduce costs, improve the reach and access to Health Care, make the healthcare system more outcomes driven, and more importantly, help in establishing an ‘empowered patient’.

According to the EIU PWC report 2012, USA has been at the forefront of mobile health deployments in the world. Almost 40 % of the solutions deployed work towards strengthening the healthcare systems. mHealth is not just promising but truly transformative to healthcare. From pill reminder, training of health workers, reducing IM / MMR, T.B. – DOTS, HIV treatment compliance to quitting smoking to managing diabetes, obesity & emergency surgeries, mHealth is becoming an integral part of healthcare delivery. It is time for the best brains to work on mHealth with all stake holders in healthcare delivery

In my view, mHealth is the only option in India, where people pay 2/3rd of the healthcare costs and only 1/3rd get healthcare in the real sense.

Seeing the potential of telemedicine, & mHealth in particular, India needs a roadmap for mHealth / Telemedicine encompassing areas of rural health, tribal health, chronic disease management, disaster management, defense services, coastal healthcare services etc.

Following might be helpful in building the digital health road map for India

Focus areas that need to be considered in the NDHP                                           Ministry / Deptt / Org. involved

 

  1. Incorporating Digital Health in Medical education / training                       MCI, NIFW, MOHFW
  2. ESIC clinics connected via Telemedicine & home care

facilities provided through mHealth for ex-servicemen                                                MOD / ISRO

  1. Sub-centers in rural areas to be replaced gradually

with mobile health Units (MHU’s & this could                                 Consider under MNAREGA,

also double as medical ambulances at the time                               NRHM – MOHFW

  • of emergency in rural areas)
  1. mHealth national grid                                                                           MOHFW/ML&E/ MOD/MIT
  2. National / Regional IVR Health helplines on the lines of 108        MOHFW / State Govts
  3. mHealth for Chronic disease management                                      MOHFW
  4. Skills Development for Digital Health                                               NSDC / MHRD
  5. Telemedicine / mHealth under Disaster Management – NDMA    PMO
  1. Regulation of tariffs ( special tariffs for mHealth services)              TRAI
  2. Mental health Telemedicine Network                                               MOHFW
  3. Checking counterfeit & Spurious medicines using mHealth           Deptt. of Pharmaceuticals
  4. Healthcare facilities in Jails                                                                Min. of Home Affairs
  5. National IT policy 2011 & health as a mission mode project           Min. of Comm. & IT
  6. National Institute of telemedicine & mHealth                                  MOHFW
  7. DST- TDB could set up ‘mHealth innovation village’

like the Startup village in Kochi                                                         DST, TDB / CHA

  1. Electronic Health Record – RSBY                                                      MOL & E / HIMSS / CHA
  2. ECHS / Naval Telemedicine / Siachen / borders                            MOD / MHA / ISRO
  3. mHealth for Tribal health & North Eastern states                          MDONER / MTA
  4. Civil Aviation / airports                                                                      MOCA / ISRO
  5. Social media strategy for health                                                        Min. of Comm & IT / HIMSS
  6. Medical Devices standards & Interoperability                                 Min. of Comm. & IT /CHA
  7. Electronic Health records for all new born’s                                   MOCWD / CHA /HIMSS
  8. Treatment protocols for various diseases                                       ICMR / PHFI / AIIMS
  9. Enactment National Telemedicine / Digital Health Act               MOHFW/Min. of Legal Affairs
  10. Applications Venture fund for telemedicine                                    TDB / DST
  11. Digital adoption lifecycle benchmarking of different states        Planning Commission /HIMSS
  12. National Cloud computing policy for healthcare                             MIT / MOHFW / HIMSS
  13. Privacy / data security issues of patients                                         MOHFW / BIS / CHA
  14. e-Prescription policy ( Electronic / digital prescription)                MOHFW / MIT /HIMSS

On the acceptability & adoption front for telemedicine & mHealth, let me quote examples;  a rural telemedicine service provider in Indi has done about 200,000 consultations with 30-40 % repeat visits, across states of U.P. , Bihar, Karnataka & Maharashtra . A leading eye care hospital does over 2.5 lac telemedicine consultations every year and another eye care hospital does over 1.5 lac telemedicine consultations in a year in India.

EMRI – 108 services in Andhra Pradesh is on a PPP model, and this service receives 58000+ calls per day with 4800+ emergencies a day and has saved 20165 lives. A true example of successful mHealth / telemedicine in our own country!

HMRI -104 (Health Management Research Institute, A.P.), is about providing information on health, counseling and healthcare services via health helpline. Till May, 2008, it received 51000 calls per day. Medical advice given to 40860, counseling attended- 7493, information of health facilities provided- 6331 & complaint calls received on healthcare facilities- 253. Top 10 ailments attended were recurrent abdominal pain, back pain, knee pain, cough, hair loss, chest pain, and eye pain or problems with eyelids, rash, pain in ankles or feet, belching, growing stomach or gas.

I had a chance to visit these facilities personally and observe the calls from patients / public, and I must say that this is something every Indian must have access to, rich or poor ! With an average cost per call of Rs.9, this is definitely a successful telemedicine & mhealth model for implementation in India. http://nrhm-mis.nic.in/UI/MEActivities/goa_web/PDFs/02-05-08_pdf/Pre%20Lunch/Goa%20presentation_AP.pdf

Also, I have visited remote places in Wardha district of Maharashtra, where mHealth has been used by rural health workers and has helped reduce maternal mortality from 91 per lac to 51 per lac in a period of about 1 ½ years with an approximate investment of Rs.4000 per village . There was a 43.95 % reduction in MMR using simple phones, through text messaging and covering high risk expectant mothers with the existing network of anganwadi workers

According to the GSMA deployment tracker, currently there are around 300 commercial deployments globally. (http://apps.wirelessintelligence.com/tracker/, extracted in Dec 2011).

So clearly, mHealth & telemedicine is fast pervading and showing its impact on the healthcare system in India

Digital Health & Medical tourism: India is fast losing to other South East Asian nations as a centre of excellence for medical tourism due to lack of IT usage in its hospitals and dismal usage of mhealth / telemedicine. International patients follow the international electronic data / medical records standards , and also would like to connect with their care givers using telemedicine , and if we do not promote EMR & telemedicine through hospitals , India is likely to lose billions of dollars in revenue which otherwise could accrue through foreign patients seeking treatment in Indian facilities

Healthcare program reporting, review & timely interventions: Currently, the healthcare data is reaching after months and in some cases well over two years. This could become live and actionable for timely interventions by using GPS enabled devices & e-reporting. Solutions are already available and are scalable. It is the right time to adopt the same in NRHM, and create a national household medical record (NHMR) for the families in rural / urban India. This will help us study the epidemiology & family health risk assessment. May be, we must make it compulsory to ensure that all the 18 million new born’s must have the electronic health record and then move upwards to put an electronic health record for all Indians, post the national screening program. At least, the next generation must be having a digital health record right from birth so we do not have to change the system backwards for them in future.

So, for sure, mHealth & Telemedicine is a proven model for care delivery, and we need to support it in a more structured and institutional manner for the next 5 years .

It is beyond doubt that , mhealth will add efficiency to affordability , acceptability ,  accessibility & efficiency on one hand , and create about 2 million jobs and also add  about 0 .5 % of growth in the GDP at a minimum in the next 5 years .

Inclusive innovation & inclusive growth have now added a new dimension, i.e. ‘inclusive healthcare’, with digital health being the starting point. mHealth is the fastest solution to the oldest problem of reaching the unreachable! We must seriously consider deploying at least 3 % of our total healthcare budget on ICT, and this will certainly make the data live and lead to timely interventions and thus saving lives, establishing accountability of the service provider through periodic reviews and bring transparency in functioning of the various programs

US FDA has approved mobile health applications for diabetes management besides others, and two insurance companies have agreed to reimburse mobile health applications for treatment of diabetes. This development indicates that the big multi-billion untapped market of the developed world is waiting to be tapped and the government needs to step in, like it did to develop multi-billion dollar corporations in the field of Information Technology. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) & Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC )report 2012, mHealth market is likely to be USD 23 Billion by 2017, and Asia Pacific market will be 30 % at USD 6.8 Billion .If we work towards setting the right enabling policies for mHealth, Indian companies would grab a major portion of this market, like we did for IT industry a few decades ago. Besides, given the technical & competent manpower in India, mHealth & telemedicine can do for country what IT revolution has done for India!  This calls for a dedicated action group on Digital Health (mHealth & telemedicine) .

mHealth & Telemedicine is becoming the focus area for all the major healthcare systems across the world, and given India’s expertise in this area, India can become a global provider of products and services in the field of Telemedicine & mHealth. We believe mHealth can add at least 0.5 % to country’s GDP in the next 3 – 5 years, create at least 5 billion dollar companies in mHealth, and lead to creation of over 20,00,000 (2 million) jobs directly by becoming a Global leader in this space. If two persons are deployed in every village for Telemedicine, and considering that India has over    6,40,000 villages, we will create over 1.2 million jobs directly just in rural India and this could be a worthwhile project to be considered for funding under MNAREGA scheme that will not only create jobs, but also lead to better health for rural India and lead to tremendous savings under NRHM expense head!

The good point is that, we have a least complex healthcare system in India, and we are building it up. Also, we have quite receptive and friendly policy makers who are willing to try initiatives.

Hopefully, we will lead and show the world an outcome driven & a self-sustainable healthcare delivery model built on strong foundations.

Over the past few years, I had a good experience working with policy makers across geographies and it has been a wonderful experience, especially in India, working with different stake holders to discuss new ideas and policies aimed at better healthcare options for the common man.

This is not a complete or a reference document but just to initiate a few discussion points. Should your office or any concerned organization, department or ministry need more inputs or support, my colleagues at the World Economic Forum, The Telemedicine Society of India, HIMSS & Continua Health Alliance, would be more than glad to volunteer and assist. I am sure that this submission will also be considered positively by the various stake holders in the Government and acted upon, so that we can see large scale deployment of mHealth & telemedicine projects in all major departments and programs of the Government making healthcare accessible and affordable to provide timely advice & right interventions for the common man 24 X 7.

Yours in good health

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Member, World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council – Digital Health
Board Member, Care Continuum Alliance, Washington DC. USA
Executive Council member, Telemedicine Society of India
President & Member of the Board, Disease Management Association of India (DMAI).

http://www.dmai.org.in

CC:

Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, Chairperson , NAC.

Dr.M.M.Joshi, Chairman, Parliamentary Accounts Committee .

Dr.Sam Pitroda, Chairman, National Innovation Council, GOI.

Shri A.K. Antony, Hon’ble Minister of Defence , GOI.

Shri Ghulam Nabi Azad, Hon’ble Minister for Health & Family Welfare, GOI

Shri Kapil Sibal, Union Minister for HRD/ Comm & IT, GOI

Shri Jairam Ramesh, Union Minister for Rural Development, GOI.

Shri Ajit Singh, Union Minister for Civil Aviation, GOI

Shri Salman Khurshid, Union Minister for Law, GOI

Smt. Krishna Tirath, Union Minister of state (I/C) for Women & Child Development, GOI

Shri Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of state for home affairs, GOI.

Shri Sachin Pilot, Union Minister of State for Comm. & IT, GOI

Dr.Syeda Hameed, Member, Planning Commission, GOI

Dr.K.Srinath Reddy, President, PHFI.

Shri. P.K.Pradhan, Secretary – HFW, GOI

Shri. Keshav Desiraju, Addl Secy – HFW, GOI

Shri. Anil Swarup, Joint – Secretary, Ministry of Labour & Employment, GOI

Mrs. Anu Garg, Joint Secretary – HFW, GOI

Shri Harkesh Mittal, Secretary, Technology Development Board, GOI

Shri Rajeev Aggarwal, Secretary, TRAI, GOI

Shri Shankar Aggarwal, Addl Secy, MOD, GOI

Dr.Jagdish Prasad, DGHS, GOI

Dr.V.M.Katoch, Secretary DHR & DG, ICMR. GOI

Director, NIFW, MOHFW, GOI

Governors, MCI.

Chairman, ISRO.

Dilip Chenoy, Managing Director, NSCDCL,

Board of HIMSS Asia Pacific India chapter

President, Continua Health Alliance

Board, Telemedicine Society of India

Board members, Disease Management Association of India.

Abbreviations used:

NDHP: National Digital Health Plan

MOHFW: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare

MHA: Ministry of Home Affairs

PHFI: Public Health Foundation of India

HFW: Health & Family Welfare

DGHS: Director General of Health Services

MCI: Medical council of India

TDB: Technology Development Board

DST: Department of Science & Technology

NIFW: National Institute of Family Welfare

TRAI: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India

MOD: Ministry of defence

MNAREGA: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act

NRHM: National Rural Health mission

MOL & E: Ministry of Labour & Employment

MCWD: Ministry of Child & Women Development

MIT: Ministry of Information Technology

MHRD: Ministry of Human Resource Development

MDONER: Ministry of Development for North East Region

MTA: Minister of Tribal Affairs

PMO: Prime Minister’s office

MOCA: Ministry of Civil Aviation

ICMR: Indian Council of Medical Research

BIS: Bureau of Indian Standards

CHA: Continua Health Alliance

HIMSS: Healthcare Information Management & Systems Society

NSDC: National Skills Development Corporation

Min: Ministry

Deptt: Department

Org: Organization

EMR: Electronic Medical Records

ISRO: Indian Space Research Organization

 

Reports referred in this note:

Touching lives through mobile health by PWC

A Better insight to mHealth adoption

Telehealth Report 2011 by Telemedicine Society of India ( www.telemedicinecongress.com )

Emerging mHealth: paths for growth by PWC

Planning Commission’s approach paper on Healthcare


 Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President & Member

Board of Directors

August 21, 2012.

Dr.Manmohan Singh,

Prime Minister

Government of India

7, Race Course road , New Delhi -110001.

Shri. Ghulam Nabi Azad

Union Minister for Health & Family Welfare

Government of India.

Nirman Bhawan, New Delhi – 110108.

Reference: Faster, Sustainable & more inclusive Growth- An approach to the 12th Five year plan – Health

Dear Dr.Singh & Shri Azad ji,

Congratulations on pushing healthcare at the top of the agenda for the 12th five year plan . I am writing this note on behalf of the Disease Management Association of India – DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance .

About Disease Management Association of India ( DMAI ) Disease Management Association of India (DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance), was formed by Executives from the Global Healthcare industry to bring all the stake holders of healthcare on one platform. DMAI has been successful in establishing an intellectual pool of top healthcare executives to become an enabler in building a robust healthcare system in India. India is on the verge of building its healthcare system, and it has a long way to go. DMAI is building the knowledge pool to contribute & convert ‘Ideas’ into ‘Reality’ for healthcare in India. DMAI is the only not-for-profit organization focused on population health improvement in India

Through this note, we wish to draw your attention to the 12th Five Year Plan approach paper dated October’2011, on the Health chapter ( chapter 9, page 87-95) and put forth some suggestions for your kind consideration and action

The approach paper correctly highlights the areas of concern and seven measurable targets like;  IMR- Infant Mortality Rate, MMR- Maternal Mortality Rate, TFR- Total Fertility Rate, Under-nutrition among children, anaemia among women and girls

( According to this plan paper , 55.3 % of the girls are anaemic ) , provision of clean drinking water for all & improving child sex ratio for age group 0-6 years .

Given the formidable challenge that the Indian healthcare system faces, of having 830 million rural population & 6,40,000 villages, we need to be innovative to find solutions that leads to better health outcomes at standards comparable to the best and with least price points that are sustainable in the medium and long term. Also, the role of technology ( Telemedicine and mobile Health) for rural health and chronic disease management, is missing from the plan paper. Without Telemedicine , the goal of ‘Inclusive healthcare’ will remain a distant dream.

Let me take the most critical issue for which India has invested billions of dollars , and still has been facing the flak of all the international bodies and i.e. the issue of Infant mortality and maternal mortality .

We have about 18 million births every year (about 34 per minute), with highest number of still births, according to a study by Lancet . So clearly, there has to be an action plan for 18 million mothers; right from the time of conception which includes awareness , education , sensitization , nutritional & medical support as an Integrated ‘Healthy Baby Mission’ for India . This will cost about Rs. 5000.00 per new born ( not including delivery charges and post natal care ). If we include all , this could reach around Rs.10000.00 to a maximum of Rs. 15000.00 per baby. So , a total budget of Rs. 18000 crores would be needed to fix the problem if we invest Rs.10,000 per new born baby every year . But assuming the number of rural births to be 12.6 million ( 70% of all births i.e 70 % of 18 million per year), of which 80 % i.e. 10.08 million only need financing ; and the number of births in urban India to be 5.4 million ( which is 30 % of all births i.e. 30 % of 18 million), of which 50 % i.e. 2.7 million need financing, the net investment comes to not more than Rs.12,780 crore per year taking an investment of Rs 10,000 per baby per year. To make this happen, a radical change in approach is needed. Also, hoping that population stabilization efforts will contain the cost of financing in the medium and long term.

Without innovating with radical changes, this program or any program that we are building for IMR –MMR, is not going to yield any results ! ICDS has spent thousands of crores for the past 35 years and we are still trying to figure out a new model for ICDS with an inter-ministerial group ! Hoping that the new program will deliver ! Despite the fact that the ICDS has a budget of Rs. 10,000 crore for 2011 / 12, and for the entire 11th five year plan had a budget of Rs. 38980 crore, still our IMR – MMR is amongst the highest in the world.

On page 90, point 9.18, the plan paper states that, “One of the major reasons for the poor quality of health services is the lack of capital investment in health for a prolonged period of time.

The National Rural Health Mission had sought to strengthen the necessary infrastructure in terms of Sub-centres, Primary Health Centres and Community Health Centres. While some of the gaps have been filled, much remains to be done. According to the Rural Health Statistics (RHS), 2010, there is a shortage of 19,590 Sub-centres; 4,252 PHCs and 2,115 CHCs in the country”.

According to point 9.19, “It is essential to complete the basic infrastructure needed for good health services delivery in rural areas by the end of the Twelfth Plan”.

The plan paper rightly talks about lack of human resources and the accountability of people recruited. Given the complexities of the challenges faced and the keenness of the Government to save the Indian healthcare system from the pain & irreversible damage being faced by the healthcare systems in USA, U.K. & Europe , it is imperative to focus on the plan papers note on point 9.34 on ‘Publicly Financed Healthcare’ . This is a very good move and will yield significant positive outcomes

According to the point 9.34, “Public financing of healthcare does not necessarily mean provision of the service by public providers. It is possible to have public financing , while the service itself is provided by private sector players, subject to appropriate regulations and oversight. This type of partnership is common in many areas, but its scope has not been fully explored in the health sector. However, a number of experiments are now in operation, which allow for private sector participation. At the Central level, the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), is a health insurance scheme available to the poor and other identified target groups where the Central Government and the State Governments share the premium in 75:25 ratio. RSBY covers more than 700 in-patient procedures with a cost of up to Rs. 30,000/-per annum for a nominal registration fee of Rs. 30/-. Cashless coverage, absence of any bar based on pre-existing conditions and age limit are other unique features of this scheme. A total of 2.4 crore families have been covered under RSBY and over 8,600 health care providers are enrolled in the selected districts across 29 States and Union Territories. In several Central Government hospitals, pathology and radiology services are outsourced to private providers”.

“State Governments are also experimenting with various types of PPP arrangements which at times also

include actual provision of healthcare by private practitioners. Public Private Partnership (PPP) as a mode to finance healthcare services, if properly regulated, can be of use to the intended beneficiaries. However, care needs to be taken to ensure proper oversight and regulation including public scrutiny of PPP contracts in the social sector to ensure freedom from potential conflicts of interest and effective accountability”.

Taking into account the recommendations of this plan document, contributions , achievements and learning from other sectors , I would like to highlight the following :

Private sector has clearly made commendable difference to oil exploration , road building , ports , airlines , news and media , education & telecom, besides other sectors. Not only have the services increased & improved drastically, but India has also attained global standards in many fields where private sector participated, bringing in more and better options to the public at affordable price points. In addition, this has created more employment than the public sector. According to the report by the Planning Commission and Directorate General of Employment and Training (DGET ) , Ministry of Labour and Employment, between 1994-2008, the employment has de-grown by -0.65 % in the public sector ,while it has grown by 1.75 % in private sector .

We have achieved a lot by actively engaging the private sector in various segments of the economy. We have also learned a lot during this journey . Now is the time to translate the learning and involve the private sector in government programs for healthcare, and make sure that we have a healthier nation, with investment in healthcare leading to positive outcomes . Not only that PPP’s in health will lead to better health outcomes with accountability but also lead to increased investments and employment generation.

Need of the hour is to implement the recommendations of the Planning Commission . We need to chart out the road map for private sector engagement , and also the guidelines to balance profits with outcomes and not trade one for another !  We lack an economic model for healthcare. If we madly rush for Universal Healthcare in the name of social mandate without a proper implementation roadmap and with checks and balances , we would have embarked on a road of irreversible financial losses to the exchequer with little or no impact on the healthcare outcomes.  Past experience with various government run programs shows us that we have been running ICDS in the health sector for about four decades ,and we still are rated amongst the worst when it comes to Infant mortality and maternal mortality ! Time to immediately introspect and correct as in the approach paper of the 12th five year plan.

Recently, I have been approached by two international organizations ; MAMA Alliance and the MDG Alliance

The MAMA Alliance ( Mobile Alliance for Maternal Action) is a Private Public Partnership launched in May 2011 by the founding partners- United States Agency for International Development , Johnson & Johnson with supporting partners – the United Nations foundation , mHealth Alliance , and  BabyCenter.

MDG Alliance is working with the support of UN Foundation , World Bank, UNICEF, PMNCH , and the Global Compact .

I have accepted to support them by joining them as the advisory board member / partner . Such organizations will do what is easily doable by the PPP models within India !

It is the time to seriously re-consider our approach for each program, and sit & discuss with the sector that brings phenomenal execution capability ( the private sector ) and work together to come out with an economic and health outcomes model for the Indian healthcare system

Without the private sector engagement healthcare will remain a ‘bottomless pit’ for the exchequer and accountability issue will never get addressed . But for sure , with the right PPP models , we will have a faster , sustainable and more inclusive growth in the 12th five year plan ; The goal of the government .

With best regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Member, World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council.

Board Member, Care Continuum Alliance , Washington DC.

President & Board Member, DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance

further details http://www.dmai.org.in

Rahul to play a bigger role !!


It is not just about Rahul playing a bigger role now ! Rahul has always been more powerful than the Prime Minister . Remember , when Congress won the election in 2009 , Manmohan Singh was requesting this MP to join the government ! 

Does PM ever request an MP to join the Government ? It is the PM’s prerogative to choose his cabinet and his colleagues  !

 It is the MP’s that always keep pestering the PM for a minister’s post !  But as i said , Rahul was always more powerful than the PM , So PM had to beg this MP to join the government 

So the talk of Rahul playing a larger role in the party is a part of the  careful ‘succession planning’ by the cancer stricken Sonia Gandhi ……also , we must not undermine the fact that , sympathy waves have always played a big role in the victory of congress !!

May be, 2014 can witness one again !

Anna’s fast – Government is slow and underestimating the disaster waiting to happen !


This time, Team Anna will certainly have a tough time and health-wise , it might not bode well for a member or two.  This will incite nationwide protests and could be catastrophic !
 
Wake up CONgress and do something now …. Time is running out !
 
 

Media Will face a crisis of existence in a decade


The world is going digital, and this is not just about changing reading habits , it is also about the changing business landscape . We need to look at this ‘digitization’ more deeply.

On June 5th 2016, we saw the news that, now the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) — an independent body that provides audited newspaper and magazine circulation — is foraying into the measurement of digital properties, to track audience in the online space.This is going to create the biggest shakeup in the media industry. If people are spending more time online, the money will follow there and so, print media will either have to evolve new business models or face crisis of existence. Also, it means that the advertisement spends will now be in the hands of American giants like Google , Facebook etc. This is cause of serious concern .

Let us look at some more facts about how this evolution is taking place

One of the top global magazines;Newsweek, after 80 years, ended its print edition in Dec 2012. This signaled the direction to where the print media is headed about three years ago

Also, Let us take the case of book stores; Barnes & Nobles, Borders and Amazon. Barnes & Nobles was the largest book store in the world in 1997 (19 years ago) and at one time,Barnes and Noble and Borders controlled 25 % of the book market. But now, Barnes & Nobles (which started in 1886-130 years ago), is making losses and the valuations have dropped to USD 719 million. Also, Borders went out of business last year after being in business for 45 years. Amazon which started as a book store in 1994, 22 years ago, is valued at USD 88 billion. The industry went upside down in the past two decades, and we even don’t need a publisher now…. times are changing andthe message is clear  .

Changing Role of Media – The Political dimension: Media is now not just a platform, it is a tool If you wish to fight an MLA election in Uttar Pradesh next year, you need to have 25000 followers online to seek an election ticket  .

Also, over the past few years, we have seen that the government policies were withdrawn due to the ‘hue and cry’ in social media. So, the online / digital media has a new veto power in politics

Politicians are now reaching out to the audience via twitter and providing relief.The online media is also personalized and interactive, and delivers on the target.This is flipping the power in the hands of the consumer

Social media is very important for politicians as not only,it connects them to their audience, it amplifies their reach, knowledge and impact

Old media could cover news and the new media has the power to create news. This makes it a great tool

My personal experience: How media has changed personally for me?  I stopped reading the print newspapers a few months ago,because;

1. During my travels , the news papers would pile up in my study and it was tough to catch up with the unread newspapers

2. With online newspapers ,I can forward ( email ) or save important news

3. I can read when I am traveling and news from any part of the world in any part of the world

4. Also, it is updated live … I don’t have to wait for my newspaper vendor to come late or bring a wet newspaper during rains,and wait for the magazine to come every fortnight or month, when I need and can read the news instantly

5. I can comment and put forth my views. So, the old media is passive media and the new media is active and interactive …. It makes sense to be using new media. Digital media has an edge over the traditional print media

6. Above all, It is free

The new age mediais bottoms up and not top down. You can ‘buy’ the new age media ..‘Trending’ will size you up  Also, the new media is smaller and crisper. I don’t have to read the entire news, I can read the headline and go into the content based on my interest

I believe that in the next few years, twitter will become a news-channel or newspaper, and so will your TV transition into live app on phone, or Youtube may make way for multiple TV channels.

The media world will change faster than we can think  Media has evolved from being a newsmaker to career maker and a policy maker  The flip side of the new media is same as old age media … it is getting over crowded too fast. Luckily, it is asset-light to withstand balance sheet pressures

Now, the  ‘virtual’ world Is the ‘real world’, and at this time, digital media is complementing the print media but in the near future, it has the potential to replace it, andwe cannot rule out its progression from prominence to dominance in the next few years Digital is successful because of ‘edge’ and not ‘age’ and those who do not take corrective steps, will face a crisis of relevance and existence both

(Rajendra Pratap Gupta is a leading public policy expert. Views are personal ) –

Media will face a crisis of existence in a decade

Packaging sells and also kills !


We heard the famous marketing quote that , ‘ packaging sells’, but the story for most of the India’s middle class, who eat on roadside eateries is somewhat different , and the new message is ‘packaging kills’ , and more so, when food gets garnished with lead and other hazardous chemicals !

India is a foodie nation, and with the rising middle class, our eating habits are changing. There is an increasing tendency to eat food outside, and India, predominantly being a middle class nation, our preference is for road side eateries and small or mid size restaurants. But what goes unnoticed is; the newspapers used in packing food items, or the printed material on tea bags, and the potential dangers associated with them.

It is a fact, that the newspapers are printed with ink that is dissolved on it with the help of chemical solvents. Studies have shown that printing ink from newspapers can easily gets into foods wrapped or served in them and this is dangerous for health. The solvents used in ink are potentially carcinogenic.

Also, newspapers and cardboard boxes used for packaged foods are made of recycled paper, which may be contaminated with harmful chemicals like di-isobutyl phthalate and di-n-butyl phthalate that can cause digestive problems and also lead to severe toxicity.

It is a fact that the recycled paper used has printing ink residues. These un-cleaned residues have found to contain hormone disruptors like benzophenones and mineral oils which can interfere with reproductive cycle of women.

Through the print based packaging, there is an exposure to organic chemicals called aryl amines, such as benzidine, Naphthylamine and 4-Aminobiphenyl, which are associated with high risks of bladder and lung cancer. Apart from these, printing inks also contain colorants, pigments, binders, additives and photo-initiators, which have harmful effects.
It is also believed, that the mineral oil-based printing inks for newspapers contain mineral oils, which consists of various types of hydrocarbon molecules that can exist as Mineral Oil Saturated Hydrocarbons (MOSH) and Mineral Oil Aromatic Hydrocarbons (MOAH). These hydrocarbons usually convert into gases by evaporation that eventually penetrates food items.
Newspapers are usually produced by a system called offset-web printing, which requires a certain consistency of the ink (it needs to be very thick) and a particular means of drying. For the former, mineral oils (petroleum-based) and solvents such as methanol, benzene and toluene are used; and for the latter, heavy metal (Cobalt)-based drying agents are used. None of these should be used in food packaging, as they are also classified as harmful and can be dangerous for health if consumed.
According to the FAO / WHO, Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives, the safe upper limit for the MOSH in foodstuffs is 0.6mg/kg. Older people, teenagers, children and people with compromised vital organs and immune system are at a greater risk of acquiring cancer-related health complications.
Another problem lies in the plastic bags used in takeaways. These bags are made of polyethylene (polythene) and the principal potential ‘migrant’ agent is ethylene. There are a number of potential additives to polythene, such as anti-static agents, ultra-violet protection and flame-retardants. These additives can be very dangerous if they find way into the takeaway food, which usually happens.
According to an article in the British Medical Journal, ‘Food packaging and migration of food contact materials: will epidemiologists rise to the neotoxic challenge? J. Epidemiol’ by Muncke J, et al. (Feb 2014), scientists say that most food contact materials (FCMs) are not inert. Chemicals contained in the FCM, such as monomers, additives, processing aids or reaction by-products, can diffuse into foods and this chemical diffusion is accelerated by warm temperature, and in India, the temperatures can touch as high as 45 degrees Celsius.
The scientists believe that FCMs are a significant source of chemical food contamination. As a result, humans consuming packaged or processed foods are chronically exposed to synthetic chemicals throughout their lives.
Formaldehyde, another known carcinogen, is widely present at low levels in plastic bottles made of polyethylene terephthalate. Other chemicals known to disrupt hormone production and used in food and drink packaging include; Bisphenol A, tributyltin, triclosan and phthalates.
There is an increase in the use of tea bags, and while using teabags, sometimes people squeeze the teabag using the label at the end of the loop. This can leak the ink from the label. I would recommend that the guidelines be framed and implemented to warn people of the same and prevent this practice
I also suggest that based on the facts available, it might be worthwhile banning the use of plastics, recycled materials and newspapers for food packing.

The FSSAI must act immediately and frame guidelines to control wrapping of fried foods in newspapers, banning the use of plastic bags for takeaways, and other practices that are harmful.
Further, it must mandate the use of ‘food packaging grade’ butter paper or aluminum foil for packaging food. We need to act on this without losing any further time
DISCLAIMER: The views expressed are solely of the author and ETHealthworld.com do not necessarily subscribe to it. ETHealthworld.com shall not be responsible for any damage caused to any person/organisation directly or indirectly.

About Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Rajendra Pratap Gupta is a global healthcare leader and a revered public policy expert, and is the author of the Healthcare best selling book,  ‘ Healthcare Reforms in India – Making up for the lost decades’ . @rajendragupta

Healthcare Reforms in India


Elsevier unveils landmark literature on India’s healthcare reforms – 10 Feb 2016

STM publisher Elsevier recently announced the launch of Health Care Reforms in India: Making Up for the Lost Decade, an authoritative and incisive look at India’s healthcare system from the perspective of Rajendra Pratap Gupta, an expert healthcare observer as well as an influential and respected voice on public policy, innovation and the economy.

A media report cited World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendation of 1:1000 as the minimum requirement for doctor-to-population ratio, but The Lancet puts India’s statistics at an average of less than 0.4 doctors per 1,000 population count. There is also a gaping disparity in healthcare support between India’s rural and urban areas, with a supply of only 0.12 doctors to every 1,000 population in rural communities when compared to an urban supply of 1.13 doctors to every 1,000 population.

Health Care Reforms in India: Making Up for the Lost Decade – launched on February 3 to about 200 key academic, pharmaceutical, hospital and government representatives at the Elsevier-hosted ‘State of Health Care Reforms in India’ seminar – documents the development of India’s healthcare sector over the last 65 years and seeks to minimise the disparity by making the case for political priority and policies for universal healthcare coverage as well as an upstream pre-emptive approach to health through technology deployment and enablement.

Book is available on Flipkart I Amazon I Kindle 

http://www.flipkart.com/health-care-reforms-india-making-up-lost-decades-english/p/itmefjq7d48ztrzk?pid=9788131243343&ref=L%3A5740714306182070999&srno=p_1&query=rajendra+pratap+gupta&otracker=from-search

http://www.amazon.in/Health-Care-Reforms-India-Decades-ebook/dp/B01AUPJ816/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1454603857&sr=8-1&keywords=Rajendra+Pratap+Gupta

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