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The distributed growth model . A keynote delivered on the invite of the World Bank in Algeria in June 2018
Kill bureaucracy to convert Red tape toRed Carpet
On May 28th, I wrote the article in the ET; ‘Bureaucrat Mukt Bharat (http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/steel-frame-of-bureaucracy-is-an-obstacle-to-development-its-time-to-rehaul-it/).
On Independence day, we heard the Hon’ble PM saying that his Government’s motto is to reform, perform and transform. Also, on 01st September, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote, “India’s economy has grown rapidly in recent years, but the country’s bureaucratic quality is widely perceived to be either stagnant or in decline”. A former PM had once said about the Indian Civil Service (ICS) , the earlier avatar of IAS; “as neither Indian, nor civil, nor a service.”
I think it is time to re-look at overhauling the bureaucracy, if we wish to realize the vision of Modi’s idea of India
We need speed, we need efficiency and we need effectiveness in our entire chain of command. This is the pre-requisite in realizing the vision of the greatest statesman – Modi.
We have had a mixed bag of experience with the bureaucracy in implementing some of the key announcements from the Hon’ble Prime Minister, and the commitment on budget announcements and schemes. I have the following suggestions;
The reason our bureaucracy fails is because of the following;
So, the time has come when we think out of the box and overhaul this system. Else, in 2019, our biggest failure will be because of the inefficient and unaccountable bureaucracy who will fail to implement Government’s key schemes.
We need to focus on the team approach; ‘One India, One team, one Goal’, that touches and transforms life till the last man standing in the line.
Re-defining the Appraisal System: As of now, we have an appraisal system that looks at ACRs, which only counts for an individual’s performance. If the performance and payment of the bureaucrat was based besides his individual performance (50% weightage) , the performance of his department / ministry (25%weightage) and the overall performance of the Government (25% weightage) , then the bureaucrats would work as a team and give up the siloed approach . So the first change is;
Move from ACR to CPR (Comprehensive Performance Review), which includes
Weightage for each level of review for the Comprehensive Performance Review (CPR) :
Increments, variable pay/ incentives and promotions of officials should be based on CPR
Implementation: Can be in a phased manner ;
Parameters for IPR could be picked up from what is already defined under ACR, but it must be more specific like;
For any of the misses, the weightage be objectively apportioned.
Department’s Performance Review (DPR)
For any of the misses, the weightage be objectively apportioned.
Government Performance Review (GPR)
A part for the GPR be based on actual data / facts, and must be done by an independent government agency (40 percent weightage) and the rest must be based on public perception (60%) ; or it can be made (50 %) of actual assessment by an independent agency and (50 %) by public voting ;
The government works for the citizens, and finally it is the citizens who are the best judge of its performance. Parameters 1-6 above can be objectively judged with data / facts, and others can be subjectively judged by the citizens under Jan Bhagidhari Assessment (JBA) through online voting.
At the end, it is the Government ‘for the people’, so the people must rate the Government on overall performance through public voting, after Government presents its self- appraisals on the points mentioned from 1-6 above.
The voting should be open for 30 days for the public to vote by a missed call from their registered mobile number on a toll free number; (60 % weightage should be assigned to public perception / judgment on performance) and 40 % on self appraisal / independent assessment by the Government.
Major change in bureaucracy is about making it a ‘performance based contractual service’: Also, one reaches the rank of Joint Secretary after a minimum service of 17 years. Joint Secretary is the actual ‘official’ who runs the show for the Government on a day-to-day basis, but if one sees the performance of the Joint Secretary, in a real sense, s/he does not feel accountable to anyone. The reality is, that now they are more driven by authority and administration and less by duty and development.
The biggest bane of bureaucracy is their job security and on one can demote them or remove them. When politicians have to go every five years for their performance review and renewing their term before the electorate, why should the top officials not undergo a review and renew based on their performance? Let us give them job security, but for performers. The Government is serious about a ‘Big Change’, and has to go and seek appraisal from the voters in 2019, but most of the bureaucrats are not as serious. They have been used to seeing government after government for decades. For them, this is all routine office work but for the Government, it is an implementation emergency. This is the only way to bridge the divide and bring about a cultural change for performance, accountability and rewards. Today, only the politicians are accountable but not bureaucrats! And it is time to change and fix the accountability based transparent review process / system.
All officers of the rank of Joint Secretary and above must be put on a 5-year contract, based on their performance review, with a performance based financial incentive for their outstanding work. So, the salary structure should have a fixed pay and a variable component . If they fail to live up to the performance standards (IPR) below 80 % for three years (out of five year term), they must be relieved. Let us not forget that the ‘Best are first to be hired and last to be fired’. So no worry for the best performers, rest should worry about themselves.
Even, Nirmal Kumar Mukarji, the last serving Indian Civil Service (ICS) officer in India who retired as Cabinet Secretary in 1980, as chief guest at the Indian Administrative Service’s 50th Anniversary celebrations 1997, had called for an end to the all-India tenured services.
Also, PS to the Minister is considered an important bureaucrat but he is a junior IAS. (below the rank of Joint Secretary), and hence s/he plays safe dealing with his seniors, as one day he might have to work under them, and the loser in this case always is the Minister. So, we need to consider that the PS to the Minister be a Special Secretary rank .
eOffice & eFile – Files are taking months to move from one table to another . e-Office / eFile concept must be implemented. No file should take more than three weeks and pass more than three levels. If there is a delay of more than a week, the note should be made on the file justifying the reasons for delay
Modi has the intent, the will and the vision and he is working really hard. Will his administrative system be able to catch up? There is a big difference in how the minister and the common man are handled by the bureaucrats. So the first impression here, should not be the last impression! Bureaucracy is slowly putting red tape to the red carpet !
Modi rightly said recently, “We cannot march through the twenty first century with the administrative systems of the nineteenth century”. If we see, we still have ‘Collectors’ in post British India, and this itself shows that the bureaucracy is still in 19th Century! A senior IAS wrote to me, ‘Modi is ahead of time’ and I said ‘ Yes, Modi is definitely ahead of time but unfortunately, the bureaucracy is still in the 19th century’. When Modi was thinking of Planning Commission, he made a profound statement, “Sometime it is better to build a new house than to repair the old one”. May be the same approach is needed for the ‘institution’ called bureaucracy. Do we repair the old house or / and build another one. The transition is critical and we have no time to lose. It needs to start soon and there should be a time bound plan to implement it
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Decade under the UPA I & II can rightly be summed in one line, the ‘Decade of Decay’, in which India had a free fall on all fronts – be it economic failure, diplomatic humiliation, failure of foreign policy, intrusions across borders, corruption & scams or crimes against women. There has been gross misuse & total denigration of government & constitutional institutions and this has eroded the office of the Prime Minister. The Government dithered by each passing day, casting gloom and doom on the country that was once under the NDA regime called the ‘Emerging Super Power’. In 2004, NDA left the Government with 8.1 % growth. The UPA could not even maintain that growth and mismanaged the country so badly, that the growth rate declined to 4.8 %, with the nation in a deep mess. We have lost a wonderful opportunity and have pushed the nation 20 years behind and rendered millions jobless and hopeless.
CAD now exceeds even 1990-91 Level – India is revisiting the crisis of 1991.
Between 2001-02 and 2003-04, the nation had a pleasant experience on balance of payments, turning surplus for continuously three years, which was unprecedented after the post-independence period. All the gains of the NDA period have been frittered away in saving the dynasty rule through various election-financing schemes
Total public debt on India is Rs 4,606,350 crore, and the debt per capita stands at about Rs 38,000
Economy is slowing down and the banks are under strain. Defaults have led to NPAs almost doubling from the 2009 levels. Rs. 2.43 lac Crore of estimated NPAs are in 40 listed banks as on December 2013. Rs.4.0 Lac crore is the amount of restructured loan under the CDR scheme.
The Indian rupee, which was at par with the American currency at the time of Independence in 1947, has touched its historic record low of below 68.80 against the dollar under the UPA
The employment generation actually decreased sharply between 2004-05 and 2009-10, especially when compared to the earlier five-year period.
In the five years from 1999-2000 – 2004-05, NDA created 60.7 million new jobs against the 2.76 million new jobs between the years 2004-05 to 2009-10 under the UPA. Now, India is going to lose more jobs in the coming years due to the wrong policies of the UPA
416 million poor, 316 million illiterate & more than 600 million population without toilets sums up the outcome of the economic policies followed by Congress
India continues to be one of the hungriest nations in the world & accounts for 42 per cent of the world’s underweight children.
India’s Human Development Index rank has a negative trend for the time period 2007-12, which indicates deterioration in the indicators determining the Human Development Index.
Whenever it came to low rate of growth, UPA justified that it was due to global economic situation, but the same cannot be justified for the increasing food prices in India. In November 2013, the Food Prices Index fell by 4.4 % globally, while in India, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was estimated to be close to 20 % in November 2013.
On one side, we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low, and on the other side, UPA is groping in the dark for the past decade to find a solution for inflation and deficits. Country’s growth that reached near double-digit due to initiatives of the NDA government has come down to 4.5 %, that too remained because monsoons played a face saver and there was a high growth in agriculture ( 4 %). Year 2013 had an unusually good monsoon favoring a good agricultural yield, but had the monsoons been average, the growth would have been below 3 %. It was the agriculture & not the Government Policies that saved the nation from a collapse!
Health and education are defining sectors for equitable human development and sustainable and inclusive economic growth of India.
Despite levying a tax to fund education and enacting a law to ensure access to education for all children between the ages of 6 and 14, the government hasn’t succeeded in improving the learning outcomes in India’s schools, because the UPA thoroughly bungled the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan initiated by the NDA.The quality of learning has either shown no improvement or actually worsened in the nine years of the UPA’s rule
Recognized as a critical element for India’s growth, the UPA government had claimed way back in its first term, that 6% of the GDP would be spent on education, which is a bare minimum for an emerging economy like ours. Nonetheless, the sector still stands at around 4% of the GDP today.
It is unfortunate, but the UPA government and the Ministry of Human Resource Development have surely missed the focus on Education and Employment, and the Research & Development expenditure has stagnated under the UPA.
Healthcare is still inaccessible and unaffordable to the masses. Out of pocket spending is still high at 78 %. Goals set forth under NRHM have not been achieved and the scheme has floundered. UPA has failed to deliver health, or healthcare, despite a huge spending.
Due to lack of investment (both public & private) in agriculture, the share of agriculture in GDP has dropped to less than 15%. UPA has failed to increase investment, productivity & profitability of agriculture, leading to farmer suicides, migration from agriculture and widening the urban-rural divide. The Nation is left at the mercy of rain Gods!
The past decade has witnessed, a directionless Indian Foreign Policy under the UPA I & II; of alienation and antagonism in relations with South Asian neighbours, & of international humiliation. India has been miserably failing in accomplishing its national interest due to poor diplomacy
India has slipped to 60th position in terms of its competitiveness globally. This is India’s lowest ever rank and also 31 place below its peer emerging market -China. With regards to GCI, India is placed at 60th position out of 148 economies
India is ranked 134th position out of 189 countries in terms of ease of doing business
Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2012 ranked India at 94, out of 176 nations
In the global happiness-ranking list, India stands at rank 111-much after Pakistan (rank: 81) and Bangladesh (108).
International rating agencies have been warning that India’s Baa3 rating is in danger of a downgrade, which has vitiated the investment climate. Any further downgrade would club the economy with junk-grade countries.
The fiscal profligacy of the UPA government has put India into a tight corner when it comes to repayment of borrowings. Government bonds worth Rs 1567 billion (Rs 1,56,700 crore) is coming up for redemption in fiscal year 2014-15 & In the fiscal years 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19, government bonds worth Rs 114600 crore, Rs 231200 crore, Rs 256700 crore and Rs 242400 crore are coming up for redemption, respectively.
Erosion of moral and societal values and governance
Crimes & corruption are on the rise across the nation and scams have impacted all the sectors like Panchayat, Housing, Education, Health, Agriculture, Mining, telecom etc. No one is untouched from corruption in the UPA regime
Corruption has become a part of the daily life. There is hardly any day when we do not come across the cases of flourishing corrupt practices getting exposed in one form or another. The policies of UPA have resulted in fast degradation of moral, societal,and cultural values
Use your right to vote to seek a change for a better India
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Please see the total debt , interest and principal payments by the Government of India . Still do you think that we can pull this country out of the mess under the UPA ? We need radical changes
As per data made available by the Ministry of Finance on debt vide RTI dated 13th May 2013 letter dated AAAD/COORD/ L(1)2012; AS ON 31/12/2012
Government Loans :
Total multilateral debt is INR 2,401,829,740,367
Total bilateral debt is INR 1,046,418,091,740
Total Government loans ( multi-lateral and bilateral ) is INR 3,448,247,832,107
Non – Government loans
Multi-lateral INR 302,495,682,321
Bilateral INR 190,240,677,456
Total Non-governmental Multilateral & Bilateral loans – INR 492,736,359, 778
Grand total ( Government & Non-Government ) 3,940,984,191,885
Total yearly payments of interests & principal
2011-12 2012-13 ( 01.04.12 – 31.12.2012) Figures in 1000 INR
Interest 2425686378 2028398390
Principal 34823428250 24641868095
Indian Economy – econoquake waiting to happen, with disastrous seismic cracks
It is a known fact that when symptoms become visible for a chronic disease, complications are tough to treat and the disease is in an advanced stage, but if the disease is diagnosed in earlier stages, the diseases are easy to treat and cure. In India, now symptoms like fiscal deficit, current account deficit, increasing NPAs, inflation, unemployment, lack of investment sentiment, withdrawing of investors etc. are symptoms of a economic earth quake (what I call as econoquake), and it is like a disaster in slow motion for India.
The Indian economy has passed through its worst phase after independence since 2004 and the rot continues to grow.
Here are some symptoms that tell how serious is the disease; Indian rupee was trading at 8 Rupee to a dollar in 1973, and has become Rs. 60 to a dollar. Does it not indicate that valuations of this country, and the fact that the economy has weakened by about 750 % in the past 40 years! Ideally, we should have grown and become 1 Rs. to 1 US $, but the poor leadership from these ‘Text Book economists’ (Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram, Montek, Subbarao) have brought down this great nation. Let us analyze a little more in detail
All the data or facts I am quoting are from credible sources and are publicily accessible . (http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/Whathappensif/entry/rbi-data-shows-how-upa-killed-the-rupee?fb_action_ids=10151534667996725)
If the 10-year RBI data on short-term foreign debt is analyzed, it is fairly obvious that the UPA destroyed the value of the Rupee. In 2004 when the Vajpayee Government was voted out, the foreign debt at $ 112.4 billion was well covered by the forex reserves. Nine years later it has grown by 350 percent to $ 390 billion and the forex reserves cover falls 25 percent short.
However the rise of foreign debt is not the only reason why the Rupee collapsed from Rs 39 to a dollar to Rs 61 for a dollar during the intervening period. Foreign debt is a necessary evil that is needed by developing countries to push forward their needs to fund foreign capital funded infrastructure. Usually such addition of infrastructure results in long-term asset building that adds to improved productivity of the nation. However in India’s case the rise of external debt has been primarily to fund the current account deficits catering largely to the working capital needs and funded through the short-term loan at higher interest rates. This short-term debt component was very comfortable at just 3.9 percent of the Forex reserves when the NDA was voted out of power nine years ago. By 2009 when the UPA II was re- elected it was around 17.2 percent and by March 2013 the short-term external debt rose to a whopping 33.1 percent of the Forex reserves, which had fallen to $ 292.65 billion. With the reserves further dropping to $ 280.18 billion following RBI’s intervention to stem the Rupee slide in July, the ratio would have worsened.
Short term debts and the External Commercial Borrowings that would need repayment during this FY 2013-14 is high and would cause large outflow of dollars and put pressure on the currency intermittently. For example during May 22 and June 19 there was a net debt outflow of $4.7 billion, one of the prime reasons why Rupee tanked.
These ECB’s and short-term debt have grown to an enormous 56 percent of the total debt by March 2013 almost 2.5 times what they were when the UPA came to power nine years ago. As per RBI data short term debt payable during this Financial year is $ 96.7 billion while ECB’s with 6 month to 1 year maturity that need to be repaid are around $ 21 billion, and NRI deposits maturing during the year are $49 billion. The Rupee is catching a cold because the total foreign debt to be repaid this year works out to a massive $172 billion that is around two-thirds the foreign exchange reserves. Even if interim measures to stop speculation are taking by the RBI it will not address the inherent weakness of the system. Rather it may enhance volatility, as speculative traders if restricted will move offshore to short the Rupee.
Similarly, if we compare our neighbor, China with larger population, Chinese currency has become strong. Though, I must admit, it is not a fair comparison! But the essence is, India is also intervening to control the rupee and Chinese central bank also intervenes, but I guess they have done a better job and the Chinese currency has strengthened compared to US dollar over the past decade and the Indian rupee has not just been weakened, it has been ‘hammered’, and continues to be the worst performing currency in Asia. We can compare Malaysian Ringgit, Singapore dollar or UAE Dirham. All these currencies have strengthened against the Indian rupee
Why rupee will continue to fall?
Domestic markets are failing.
CDR gives an indication that the corporate sector is crashing!
The latest data from the CDR cell suggests that Indian banks added Rs. 15,016 Crore of restructured loans in the March quarter, about Rs. 9,000 Crore less than what they had done in the pre ceding quarter. On a cumulative basis, total restructured loans crossed Rs. 2.27 trillion, or 4.4% of the total loans given by Indian banks.
Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of 40 listed Indian banks rose to Rs.1.79 trillion in December fromRs.1.25 trillion a year ago, an increase of 43.1%. In the past, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had cautioned banks about the need for enhanced risk assessment tools to monitor loan quality.
Defaults in Agricultural credit in another bubble?
A surge in exposure to farm debt through Kisan Credit Cards (KCCs) could emerge as a risk for India’s state-run banks, according to experts.
Subsidized loans are given to farmers through KCCs by state-owned banks. Until March 2012, the outstanding amount on such loans was Rs.1.6 trillion through 20.3 million cards, as per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. This may have risen to around Rs.2 trillion, bankers said.
Agriculture is one of the largest sources of bad loans for most banks. It is contributing 9.72% to the gross NPAs of SBI and 7% of Central Bank of India. The nation’s largest lender SBI has the largest gross NPAs —Rs.53, 457.79 Crore, or 5.3% of loans, followed by Punjab National Bank (Rs.13, 997.82 Crore, or 4.61% of loans), Central Bank of India (Rs.8, 938.47 Crore, or 5.64% of loans) and UCO Bank (Rs.6, 711.29 Crore, or 5.53% of loans).
FDI is like mirage for UPA
Government’s efforts to promote India as an investment destination does not seem to be yielding fruits as FDI inflows registered 38 per cent decline to $22.42 billion in 2012-13 compared to the previous year.
It is clear that the UPA government is on the ventilator and no sensible MNC or investor is going to even announce investment for during this government. Knowing well, that the next government will certainly not be either from congress or due to its support. That is one major reason why we have seen in the last week POSCO cancelled its Rs. 30,000 Crore steel plant on July 16th, L.N.Mittal cancelled its Rs. 50,000 Crore steel plant on 17th July 2013. This is a loss of Rs. 80,000 Crore worth of investment committed to India. Normally, when the government is about to be re-elected, we know that practically, all the companies wants to wash its hands in Ganges, and get speedy approvals for obvious reasons. A ‘Needy’ political party in power wants to ‘cash in’ and so does the ‘greedy’ corporates. We have seen how business leaders get national awards like padamshree and padmavibhushan in the election years or the year preceding the election year … but this time, the scene is different. No sensible business house, no matter how ‘greedy’ it is, will commit any investment before the next general elections. So, I see no respite to Indian economy till 2014 end or may be, 2015.
FII’s the real culprits for rupee slide? May be!
FDI Inflows in India and Outflows from India from 2007 to 2012: (amount in US$ billion)
|
|
FDI Inflows to India |
FDI Outflows from India |
||||||||
|
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
2011-12 |
|
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
2011-12 |
|
|
|
Total |
43.4 |
35.6 |
27.4 |
36.5 |
|
19.3 |
15.9 |
15.3 |
12.6 |
|
|
As a % of GDP |
3.4% |
2.6% |
1.7% |
2.0% |
|
1.5% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
|
|
FDI Investment Stocks |
125.2 |
171.4 |
204.7 |
203.9 |
|
63.3 |
80.9 |
96.4 |
108.8 |
|
|
FDI Investments Stocks as % of GDP |
9.8% |
12.7% |
12.6% |
11.2% |
|
4.9% |
6.0% |
5.9% |
6.0% |
|
|
Country |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
2011-12 |
Total |
2008-09 |
2009-10 |
2010-11 |
2011-12 |
Total |
|
Singapore |
3.42 |
2.38 |
1.70 |
4.31 |
11.81 |
4.06 |
4.20 |
3.99 |
1.86 |
14.11 |
|
Mauritius |
11.04 |
10.34 |
6.98 |
8.92 |
37.28 |
2.08 |
2.15 |
5.08 |
2.27 |
11.57 |
|
Netherlands |
0.85 |
0.90 |
1.21 |
1.16 |
4.12 |
2.79 |
1.53 |
1.52 |
0.70 |
6.54 |
|
USA |
1.80 |
1.94 |
1.17 |
0.91 |
5.82 |
1.02 |
0.87 |
1.21 |
0.87 |
3.97 |
|
UAE |
0.25 |
0.63 |
0.34 |
0.33 |
1.55 |
0.63 |
0.64 |
0.86 |
0.38 |
2.51 |
|
British Virgin Islands |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
0.00 |
0.75 |
0.28 |
0.52 |
1.55 |
|
UK |
0.83 |
0.66 |
0.76 |
2.75 |
5.00 |
0.35 |
0.34 |
0.40 |
0.44 |
1.53 |
|
Cayman Islands |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.44 |
0.14 |
0.62 |
|
Hong Kong |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.16 |
0.31 |
0.46 |
|
Switzerland |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.25 |
0.16 |
0.41 |
|
Other Countries |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
7.65 |
3.19 |
2.65 |
1.23 |
14.71 |
|
Japan |
0.41 |
1.18 |
1.56 |
2.75 |
5.90 |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
|
Cyprus |
1.30 |
1.63 |
0.91 |
1.32 |
5.16 |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
|
Germany |
0.60 |
0.63 |
0.20 |
1.46 |
2.89 |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
|
France |
0.46 |
0.30 |
0.73 |
0.47 |
1.96 |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
No data |
References:
(1) OECD data on FDI in Figures as on January 15, 2013.
(2) Zenith International Journal of Business Economics and Management Research, July 2012.
(3) World Investment Report various issues.
(4) If there are any inadvertent errors in the data, it is regretted
Please see how foreigners are investing money in stock markets, and have taken over 100 Billion USD (108.8 Billion dollars, Which is 6 % of India’s GDP) outside India just in one year (2011-12).
How will our Finance Minister address the Balance of payment issue, which needs 75 billion USD?
11 % of GDP is in the hands of FDI / FIIs? Are we safe? Is our growth trickling down or trickling outward? This is in complete deviation of the path of a self-reliant India propounded by our freedom fighters. We are not building a West India company on the lines of the erstwhile East India Company? Time to take a serious look at the data and take concrete actions. It is a wake-up-call for India
Dr.Akash Mehta compiled this data on FII’s on my request. Acknowledged with thanks Dr.Mehta.
Vehicle sales – another symptom of the anemic economy
Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand, prompting industry body SIAM to seek stimulus package for the automobile sector from the government.
With actual sales in the first quarter of this fiscal turning out to be wide off the mark from what it had forecast in April, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) stayed away from revising sales projections it had made in April this year and stated that even those targets were unlikely to be met, except in two-wheeler segment.
According to the latest figures, domestic car sales stood at 1,39,632 units in June as against 1,53,450 units in the same month last year.
We know the problem. So what next?
India has focused too much on FDI / FII’s to bring in dollars, and the capitalists countries are like Shylock (Merchant of Venice). They will extract their pound of flesh. So, India got quick dollars from FII’s, and FII’s made quicker returns and exited the markets and today FIIs have 11 % of the investment in stocks, as I have given the data above. The fact is that, a clutch of foreign investors can destabilize India by withdrawing their investment. FIIs are short-term hedgers and they damage infringe long-term damage to our currency & country. Small retail investors become bankrupt because of FIIs. What came out as a myopic solution to our fiscal deficit and balance of payment crises has today turned into a major national security issue?
Economic Competitiveness: We need to focus on economic competitiveness. We have lost in the last few decades.
Areas to focus, agriculture – we need to amulify agriculture (taking a cue from Amul’s experiment of cooperative movement in milk). We need to support farmers. Make a paradigm shift in modernizing agriculture, training, and equipping farmers to set up SME food processing units. This should make us the top most processed food country in the world in the next decade. The national highways project of Shri. Vajpayee (Golden Quadrilateral Project) was the best step taken since independence for inclusive growth, and this must be pursued aggressively. During NDA regime the road building was 20 KMs a day and under UPA it is down to a KM or two. The Atal Behari Vajpayee government bequeathed a robust economy to the UPA. Remember that the growth rate registered in 2003-04, the last year of the NDA regime, was an impressive 8.5%. Foreign exchange reserves were plentiful. General prices were well under control. Share markets were booming. And there was a general sense of well-being. Work on the Golden Quadrilateral highway linking four corners of India was on in full swing. And various public infrastructure projects under the Public-Private-Partnership model were proceeding without any hitch.
Now, in the last year of the UPA-II, we are back to the Hindu rate of growth. If the economy logs anything above 5% it would be a miracle
(http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analysis/back-to-where-the-economy-was-during-the-early-90s)
My personal prediction is, that we will be below 4 % in growth soon if the regime continues the same way and I have predicted it long back
(https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/)
Tourism- spiritual tourism – Tourism is the next best bet after agriculture and we must focus on it by innovating in this sector. I have detailed plan for creating millions of jobs and billions of dollars through employing matriculate youths in this sector.
Intellectual property (IP): India has become a sweatshop and nothing wrong in it, but we need to focus on building IP in science, technology, defense, & agriculture. It is shame that India has not even built a software platform (operating system) and still relies on Microsoft and IOS. Indians in software arena should take a challenge and build the best operating system rather than spending billions of dollars buying MS Office and Apple operating system or Google. We need a search engine developed by Indians. India spends billions of dollars on universities but the IP registered by just one company Texas Instruments (for the sake of giving example I am quoting Texas Instruments) from its Bangalore office might exceed the patents granted to researchers in Indian universities. We need a complete over haul in our education systems that give the world the most valuable IPs, which can be monetized.
Geographical indicators (GI’s): We all are aware that many Geographical Indications like Darjeeling Tea, Mysore Silk, and Champagne across the world have become premium global products. While protection of GIs is very important, it is all the more important to extract economic benefit out of registered GIs. In India we have 184 Indian GIs has been registered till now but hardly a few of them have accessed global market.
On the other hand we are also seeing growing number of GIs from other countries like Peruvian Pisco, Scotch whisky, Cognac, Prosciutto de Parma, Tequila etc. have registered in India.
While it is understood that not every Indian GI has the potential of capturing global market, but many of them have. However we have not seen enough initiative and support system for such promising GIs having healthy export market. There must be a plan to build on the legacy of these GI’s, and targeted GI must be turned into a USD 10 billion global markets for Indians.
Boost manufacturing with a focus on SME’s: Women’s employment has taken an alarming dip in rural areas in the past two years, a government survey has revealed. In jobs that are done for ‘the major part of the year’, rural women lost a staggering 9.1 million jobs. This emerges from comparing employment data of two consecutive surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) in 2009-10 and 2011-12. NDA, during 1999-2004, 60.7 million jobs were created while UPA Government, during 2004-2009, created only 2.7 million jobs. (Data source: National Sample Survey Office).
Organic farming, Herbals & Nutraceuticals: The whole world is moving to traditional and complimentary medicine and India has a scientific traditional medicine dating back to 5000 years. We can create rotation farming for herbals and organic foods and create millions of jobs and billions of dollars worth of exports.
Foreign policy: Neighbors can help. We need not be hooked to G8 / 14/ 20. It is time to have a strategic alliance in Asia, A-2 (India and China) on the lines of G-4, we need to create A-4, the big 4 Asian economies must come together to lead Asia. This is where India must initiate moving from G-20 to A-4.
Lastly, it would not be wrong to say that lakhs of small and medium enterprises , and even 27 big corporate houses have 41 trillion rupee debts (http://www.livemint.com/Companies/7TnLNfHilL2UOkPVNku8UM/Kumar-Mangalam-Birla-is-the-highestpaid-director.html ) . So , this is a steriod induced survival for most of the corporate entitites be it small or big .More pain is expected by this year end. So the government needs to keeps its head low and overheads lower and find solutions to avoid NPA’s . Though, it is an another thing, that UPA has in itself become an NPA.
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy
On 22nd March 2012 , I wrote this on my blog and also sent the same to leading public figures .I had stated dwelling in detail about how, ‘ Have we oversold the India story’, and this was much before the bad news starting sinking in !
Link to the blog is https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/ .
This blog clearly mentioned that we must be prepared for bad news in April – May – June Quarter , and we know that, India was downgraded as an economy by the international rating agencies ( S&P & Fitch ) and many Indian banks also faced the brunt , many retailers are gasping for breath ….
This time , I have decided to write about the story of how Indian economy would enter a dark phase if immediate steps are not taken ,and this note is not against anyone but for everyone who wants to see India doing well ! I have tried my best to put data for every statement ( Besides Almighty , everyone should believe in data !).
So now , it is time to peep in the story of how an emerging economy can become a submerging economy .
Let us look at the following data :
| Sector – Industry / company | Financials ( Loans / NPAs) | Source / Remarks |
| Telecom Sector | Rs. 2.00 Lac Crore debt | TOI, 26th September , 2012. |
| Banking Sector | NPAs Rs.1.37 Lac crore as of June’12 | Mint , 7th September, 2012 |
| Banking Sector | According to RBI’s assessment , a fifth of all re-structured loans go bad . According to RBI, as on March 31, banks had Rs.2.18 Lac worth of restructured loans on its books | Mint, 7th September, 2012 |
| Banking Sector | State-run banks NPA crosses Rs.1.23 Lac crore | Mint , 23/ August/ 2012 |
| Credit card outstanding | Rs. 22150.00 Crore | As on July/ 21 Ref. ET 14/9/12 |
| Indian Government | Total planned borrowing is Rs.5.71 Lac crore for FY 13, of which Rs.2.0 Lac crore would be in the second half of the fiscal by Dec’12 | As per Mint dated September 28, 2012 |
| Banking Sector | Report by Credit Suisse group AG points that exposure to 10 large Industrial groups constitute 13 % of the entire banking system | Mint, August 21, 2012. |
| Banking Sector | As of 27th July, Indian banks had loans outstanding of Rs.36,600.00 Crore to the mining and quarrying sector, and Rs.93,170.00 Crore to the Telecom sector | Mint, 12th September, 2012. |
| Power Sector | As of March, 2011, the accumulated losses of the State power distribution companies are estimated to be alone Rs.1.90 lac crore which, by now, would have crossed Rs.2.0 lac crore | IBN Live dated 23rd, September, 2012 |
| Air India ( NACIL) | Rs.67520.00 crores in loans & dues | NDTV Profit, 8th Feb, 2012 |
| Pantaloons ( Kishore Biyani’s ) | Rs.3300.00 crore | ET, 14th June 2012 . After selling a portion of its apparel business to Aditya Birla Group. Before the sell-off , the debt of Pantaloon was about a billion dollars |
| Reliance ADA Group | Rs.86700.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| GMR | Rs.33600.00 croreFY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| JSW | Rs.40,200.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Jaypee | Rs.45,400.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Lanco | Rs.29,300.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Essar Group | Rs.93,800.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Vedanta | Rs.93,500.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Adani Group | Rs.69500.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Videocon | Rs.27,300.00 crore FY’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| GVK | Rs.21,000.00 crore F’12 | Business Line August 26th, 2012. |
| Fortis Healthcare | Rs.6237.00 crore | Business Line August 15th, 2012 |
| King Fisher Airlines | Rs.7500.00 crore | The Hindu, July 2nd , 2012 |
| Losses of top three oil marketing companies | Rs.40,500.00 crore in April-May-June’2012 | Forbes India , Sept 03, 2012 |
| Airtel | Rs.60,018 Till Q1, 2012 | Business Line , Aug 3, 2012 |
The total debt level of ten companies alone (Adani, Essar, GMR, GVK, JSW, Jaypee Group, Lanco, Reliance ADA, Vedanta and Videocon) has jumped 5 times in the past five years to Rs 5,39,500 crore ( Indian Express , September 06, 2012 )
Business Line dated August 26, 2012: Credit Suisse said that the aggregate debt of the ten groups accounts for about 13 per cent of total bank loans and a whopping 98 per cent of the entire banking system net worth.
“Therefore, surprisingly now in terms of concentration risk, Indian banks rank higher than most of their Asian and BRIC counterparts,” it added.
The report said a strong loan growth of Indian banking system in past five years is increasingly being driven by a select few corporate groups.
“Given the high leverage, poor profitability and pressure from lenders, most of these debt heavy groups have initiated plans to divest some of their assets. However, given that most domestic infrastructure developers are already over-geared, demand for these assets may be limited,” Credit Suisse said.
Each of these groups alone account for 1-2 per cent of total banking system loans, the report said, while noting that all banks appear to have high exposure to the same few groups.
“With the economic slowdown and a downturn in these sectors, multiple assets of each group appear stressed and financials of these groups are stretched,” the report said.
Bank’s exposure to real estate sector ( ET dated 22nd August , 2012)
| Bank | Exposure to real estate FY 2011-12 ( Rs. Crore ) |
| State Bank of India | 144668.38 |
| ICICI Bank | 81421.73 |
| Axis Bank | 52730.39 |
| Punjab National Bank | 48474.59 |
| IDBI Bank | 36784.47 |
| Bank of Baroda | 22157.40 |
| StanChart | 26027.78 |
| HDFC Bank | 25020.26 |
| Total exposure | Rs. 437285.00 Crore |
Despite an exposure / investment of about Rs.4.37 lac crore from banks ,still five lac houses remain unsold ( ET, 22/ 08/2012 & TOI dated 18/ 09/ 2012. ) . So land became costly as the builders brought them with loans , houses became expensive due to builder cartels and now that houses are not getting sold , all are a part of the downturn ……..no solution is in sight except for NPA’s and its cascading affect later .
Clearly, Indian economic story lacks ‘depth’ but has been built on ‘debt’ and this is a painful bubble waiting to burst …. So a common man must have enough savings to last a few years if without a job !
July 26, 2012 in TOI, it was reported that at least eight cases of FDI in some obscure real estate companies – each worth more than USD 100 Million – from Singapore have come under scanner , with Income tax Overseas unit (ITOU) having investigated them for alleged round tripping . Suspicion was raised when authorities detected huge FDI inflows into some little known real estate firms in India in the form of equity participation . A senior finance ministry official said they suspect these real estate firms to be front entities of some corporate houses and their black money has been routed through Singapore to acquire real estate in the country . All these FDIs coming from Singapore pertain to 2011. India received Rs.1.74 Lac crore worth of FDIs in 2011-12, of which Singapore contributed third highest at Rs.24,700.00 , after Mauritius ( Rs. 46,700.00 crore ) and the U.K ( Rs. 45,000.00 Crore). So , now we can understand why an Indian’s politician’s family have a flat in Singapore and why Indian Government along with a few ‘parties with vested interests’ are pushing for FDI ! Does it also not answer the question why Government opened the real estate sector to FDI in 2005 ? So that money stashed abroad can be brought back in real estate sector, and further money could be made by investing in and increasing the prices by buying land ! Does Lavasa ring a bell in your ear !
In absolute terms, bank’s bad assets have doubled in three years between 2009 and 2012 – from Rs. 68216 crore to Rs.1.37 Lac crore ( Mint 21st August , 2012). Bad assets in coal, iron and steel , mining , construction , textiles and aviation sector have been on the rise . Bankers see stress in telecom and power sector, too. The biggest beneficiaries of loan restructurings are large industrial houses in the manufacturing sector – 8.24 % of loans given to industries have been recast. In the services sector , the comparable figure is 3.99 % , and in agriculture loans , 1.45 %. It is clear that the small borrowers don’t get relief from loan servicing but the large industrial houses have gotton one ( Mint , 21, August ,2012. ). According to the same article , public sector banks have 90 % of the restructured assets , and this in my view clearly states one fact – a strong political – bureaucratic and business houses nexus to make loans and buy private jets and show companies in losses to the investors ! What right do the business houses have to question the Government on profligacy and spending when these business houses have huge debts but have their CEO’s / promoters taking home 10’s of crore in salaries plus stakes in companies and still flying private jets on borrowed money ! We know of the large business house where the debts are more than revenue but the flamboyant chairman / promoter flies on private jets ! Such company’s ( any company that has over Rs. 50 crore external debt ), boards must be restructured by the MCA (Ministry of Corporate Affairs) and independent directors with fixed term and remuneration should be appointed by the Government , so that the loans and shareholders money is not misappropriated by such promoters in the name of expenses and privileges !
Three more developments to be noted to give you a sense of state of affairs in the Indian economy :
| Remarks | |
| India | S&P rating is BBB (Minus) . Outlook – NegativeFitch rating is BBB (Minus ). Outlook – Negative ( TOI, 26th June, 2012 ). |
| Bharti Airtel | Downgraded by Goldman Sachs and other banks. ET . 10th , August , 2012 |
| Retail Sector | Fitch has downgraded the ratings to negative |
Agriculture / Food crises : The US is facing a severe drought , and India has witnessed a bad spell of monsoon this year with erratic and unpredictably low rainfall . When India imports pulses and oilseeds , & the prices of these commodities is set to rise. Stock piles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents , raising the food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near record $ 1.24 trillion . Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soya beans and rice will drop 1.8% to a four year low before harvests in 2013, the US department of Agriculture ( USDA) estimates . Crops in the US, the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops . Wheat production in Russia , the fourth largest exporter , will fall 20 % this year , and in Australia , output will decline 19 % and, God forbid, another year of bad spell of rain in India will spell disaster for this country . This situation warrants an emergency action ! On 9th August , 2012 on page 7 of ET, I read an appeal to the GOI by All India Starch Manufacturer’s Association regarding the crises due to non-availability of maize in the domestic market. Even if starch manufacturers were ready to buy maize at higher prices, it was not available and adding to it was the monsoon failure ! We are all awaiting a miracle to happen with Wal-Mart et al. But the reality is that these players have not much to contribute. We must not forget that , the supply chain structures in these companies are leaner and they work on shortest inventory, so clearly , these people will not do much for supply chain management . Also, the biggest contribution is stated to be creation of 10 million jobs in India . I wish to ask that these companies have a ROI ( Return on investment ) for each employee and so , clearly , we must see what is the cost that we are going to pay to these MNC chains for them creating 10 million jobs & the Government must come out with a white paper on this ? After all , Wal-Mart is not here in India for charity ! For sure , it would mean we paid will pay them dearly for doing what we could have done 100 times cheaper ! All FDI investments to me appear to be taking the ‘economy in debt’ to ‘sell off’ ( divestment )… We are back to what East India Company did to India but this time , it is not one company, but multiple East India Companies !
Also , a time to look at the sectorial composition of GDP 1950-51 – 2011-12 from CSO data
| Agriculture | Industry | Services | |
| 1950-51 | 53.1 % | 16.6 % | 30.3 % |
| 2011-12 | 13.9 % | 27 % | 59 % |
In 1950, India had a population of 350 million and now it is 1210 million. During independence, the population dependent on agriculture was 72% and now it is 54 %. But except Madhya Pradesh, where agricultural growth has increased to dramatically , not much is visible in other states .
Infrastructure – Construction firms sector ( Mint , September 11, 2012): for a set of 87 firms with a significant presence in infrastructure , sourced from Capitaline database , these numbers show an increasing difficulty to service debts
For these firms , the interest coverage ratio (ICR), for fiscal 2012, plunged 1.9 times , the lowest in at least five years. In other words , for every Rs. 100 of interest payments, the firms earnings before interest and tax ( EBIT ) stood at Rs.1.90 . The comparable number for 2007 was almost five.
In the fiscal 2012, at least 17 firms did not earn enough to pay the interest ! The list includes some of the bigger and better known firms such as Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd, Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd and GMR Infrastructure Ltd. This might give us a sense of where India is headed . First we oversold the India story, and now we are gonna pay heavily for it ….. !
Emerging Economy – really ? Let’s have a look at the following figures ;
GDP & Growth without fundamentals & eventual Collapse : This is the India’s growth story’s fate . Let me give you two glaring examples and rest you can relate for your conclude;
I have travelled to the draught prone areas, and heartland of farmer’s suicides i.e. Vidharbha region of Maharashtra . Lanco is setting up a power plant in Wardha and has purchased land for as high as Rs. 25 lac per hectare ( as per the farmers statement ). So , let’s look at this example where Lanco purchased 7 acre land from a farmer for Rs.1.75 crore . A farmer who was drought and debt ridden for years becomes a millionaire overnight, and buys a SUV for himself along with a rifle , gold jewelry for his wife , builds a pucca house with the money he gets , and the money is spent soon as he did not know how to plan and how much to spend and the land is also gone to Lanco ! Also, money brought in a lot of vices ( please check the number of AIDS patients in the region ! ). This company Lanco, runs a debt of Rs. 29300.00 crore and has gone for CDR ( Corporate debt restructuring ). The banks that gave the loan should be ready for a NPA ( Non-performing asset )! So , the farmer , the company Lanco and the bank have become a non-performing asset ….. whereas , the farmer buying a SUV, Gold etc, would have boosted the sale of vehicles , gold, wines, apparel companies temporarily , and soared the rates & increased the GDP ! So this is growth in GDP but not a sustainable one or growth without prosperity !
Let me quote another example : Country auctioned the airwaves (spectrum), a few years ago for which the companies paid tens of thousands of crore for airwaves. The companies took loans , passed on the cost to consumers ( Co’s were not wrong as they had to get an ROI for their investors ) and finally , like Airtel with over 200 million customers, run into a debt of about Rs. 60,018.00 crore ……….So , let me consider an alternative scenario . If companies were given spectrum for a nominal administrative fee of say Rs. 500.00 crore + 50 % revenue sharing . In that case, the companies would have invested more into infrastructure and services would have been better and much cheaper , also , the Government could have made a cool Rs.80,000.00 crore every year taking the current revenue of all telecom operators to be Rs.160,000,00 crore, with probably very little debt on telecom companies and no such scams ! Today, the telecom sector has a debt of Rs. 200,000.00 crore and government barely gets anything of the total revenue of Rs.160,000.00 crore as its revenue sharing is in lower single digits . All have lost due to myopic policies of the Government . This is what I call GDP without prosperity , and this is what our entire Indian economy is passing through . It has no depth but debt ! What I call as lack of strong fundamentals, for which none of the parties have shown a concrete action plan . Companies have stock valuations and we are measuring our strength on the stock market indices which are not at all in relation to our ground realities , and only 2 % people in our country dabble in stock markets whereas 98 % suffer the hallucinations of this economic growth and GDP which is backed by loans , subsidies and political doll outs and have become a drain on our economy & our economy is becoming a bottomless pit ! Here I will not fail to quote the maiden address of our former finance minister and current President of India on 15th August , 2012 ‘It is indeed a wake-up call to Indian polity that even 65 years after independence and 74 years after Bose’s observation ( Subhash Chandra Bose in 1938 had flagged at the 51st session of Indian National Congress at Haripura that country’s primary challenges were poverty , illiteracy and hunger ) , the number of poor in the country today outstrip the population of the country in 1947’
All the sovereign wealth should be leased on 50-50 % revenue sharing between the Government & the private sector companies , and never be auctioned ! There is no other sustainable model for our meeting the financing needs and auctions only give a one-time income ! This must be made a policy so that every year , Government can make decent money and invest in the infrastructure, growth and give good governance to all Indians
Indian population a mere statistics ? Let us take the example of the recently concluded London Olympics . China with a larger population came 2nd with 38 gold , 27 silver and 23 bronze medals and India came on 55th position amongst 79 nations with zero gold , 2 silver and 4 bronze medals ….. this is what our leaders have led us to ! With committed leadership we must have made it the top by now …..
Let us do a rough sum of Indian economy which has a GDP of approximately Rs. 100 lac crore and we still borrow about Rs. 5.2 lac crore every year, and we already have debts of about Rs. 45 lac crore . India’s 42 % of the net annual tax revenues of Rs.7.71 lac crore goes in servicing its debt ( Rs.3.20 lac crore ). Another 25 % goes in subsidies ( Rs.1.90 lac crore ) – an annual amount that would actually be Rs.78000.00 crore higher if off-balance sheet fuel subsidies to oil marketing companies were included. The fiscal deficit of Rs.5.19 lac crore – 5.9 % of nominal GDP – is 67 % of the net central tax revenue . This was detailed in TOI dated 19th August 2012. I had read somewhere that , 54 % of Indian’s income goes in interest payments on debts taken for decades , 30 % is the cost of running the inefficient Government & bureaucracy and 16 % for subsidies ……so I keep wondering , does India have any money at all to invest in infrastructure or for future !!!! ( Hope I am wrong in remembering these numbers and India does better ). If not , time to take action !
According to Apparel Promotion Export Council ( APEC) , an estimated 4.5 million jobs have been lost over the past 3.5 years . Do our policy makers know how an ordinary Indian would survive without a salary for even a week and what pains his family and relatives pass through him being a jobless !
If all of you witnessed the discount sales season, it was advanced and even extended to make up for the shortfall , and this must show the desperation from the companies to meet the numbers . Unfortunately , If corrective steps are not taken immediately , we will have more companies getting into CDR or closure and millions of jobs might be lost till 2015……worst is yet to come !
Let me quote a facts about why India gained political independence and what was the average age of leadership . Maulana Azad became the President of INC at the age of 35 , Bose became the President of INC at the age of 41 and Nehru became the President of INC at the age of 40… So now we know why we got political freedom and why we have not been able to get economic freedom ??? For a nation with more than 65 % of the population below 35 years , it is important to take care of the representation of youth to lead this country with fresh innovative ideas for a double digit growth and that too grounds up. Though our policy makers tell us that we cannot grow at about 8 % , but the fact is that, in 2011 calendar year , 12 countries clocked more than 8 % growth and some of them like Ghana , Iraq , China , Argentina and Turkey are not exactly small . We have been capped by the ‘old school of policy makers’ and their thinking , who believe that they know all and what they do is right ! This has to go now ! We need leaders with a nose on the ground , good governance and a strong political will and rest will fall in place . Government must earn from the rich and middle class, and help upgrade the lower income class to middle class on a ‘mission mode’ basis by empowering them by providing them training , education, healthcare and technology .
Our country’s finance ministers have taken to ‘Populonomics’ ( Economics of populism ) , and not ‘economics’, and this has clearly shown the results to the common man . India is heading towards an economic disaster and short cuts like FDI are short lived solutions !
I can bet you that if a party rises above caste , religion ,reservation, dynasty , and parochial regional politics, it is sure to win the youth and come to power without taking to populism !
It is the time for the finance minister to move from being an ‘efficient tax collector’ to ‘passionate creator of wealth through innovation & entrepreneurship ’. India is the only country in the world at this time that has ample opportunities for each problem to be solved and is a fertile basin for innovation ! If you were born as a human- being , you must be lucky, but if you are born as a human -being and that too, in India , you must be the luckiest on earth, and this describes our India today and what it can offer to the world !
All ministries must have wealth creation strategies ! Just imagine that for the year 2012-13, India will have gross tax receipts of 1,077612 crores and expenditure of Rs.1490925 crore…. Even if we do the sell-offs , we still cannot pay off the Rs.45 lac crores of debts that India has ! Which assets will be left to sell for our next generation ( oh boy that’s too far , I must say in the next 10 years ) ,to sustain our economy ? I think then , our Government will call upon the US President and ask his farmers & companies to come and invest in Indian land and make it more productive , and that will be the final sell off of this once a great nation i.e India
I am not an economist, though , I have studied economics during my graduation ( but I must confess that I do not remember anything I studied during graduation J , and I am glad that I don’t remember anything J) All that I have written here is a common man’s perspective from the data and facts available in the public domain. I have researched the state of economy well over five months to help our dear policy makers to do a better job and making the life of a common man better and not bitter !
I am leaving to US for two weeks on 14th October evening , and on my return, I will launch www.indiawewant.org ,and would welcome your suggestions and participation
With best wishes
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Economy I Healthcare I Retail I Innovation
July 11 , 2011.
Dr.Manmohan Singh
Prime Minister
Government of India
7, Race Course , New Delhi 110001
Subject: UN High-Level Summit on Non-Communicable Diseases, September 2011
Dear Dr.Singh,
In the above quoted reference , and in continuation to the letter I wrote to you on 8th June 2011; I am connecting with you on my return from the UN session on NCD’s
On 16th June 2011 , on the invitation from the United Nations, I participated in the informal interactive civil society hearing & delivered an address at the UN General Assembly Hall . The session was presided by the President of the UN General Assembly , Mr.Joseph Diess
My view was also quoted in the closing remarks by Sir George Alleyne , UN Special Envoy to the Caribbean .
This September, you and your fellow political leaders will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to halt a global epidemic that is killing and disabling millions of people, impoverishing families and undermining economic progress. The United Nations High-Level Summit on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) is a chance for the Government of India to play a leading global role in confronting this major threat to health, prosperity and security of all of us and future generations.
I wish to assure you of the full support of our organization for the High-Level Summit in September 2011. We campaigned for such a Summit because the NCD epidemic has reached such proportions that it now constitutes a major risk to global prosperity, development and political stability.
Together the four major NCDs – diabetes, cancer, heart disease and chronic respiratory disease – are the world’s number one killer. It is estimated that some 35 million people die from NCDs each year, and 14 million of these deaths could be averted or delayed.
Recently , Our Hon’ble Health Minister quoted; that every ten seconds two new cases of diabetes are reported . Further , 14 % people in Bangalore were found to be diabetic , 21 percent had high blood pressure and 13 % had both diabetes and hypertension. DMAI had conducted the first Health Risk Assessment study in 2009 , and our findings showed that other NCD’s pose a threat of similar magnitude . We found that 44 % males & 42 % females were Obese , 18 % males and 8 % females were suffering from Hypertension , 21 % males and 11 % females were suffering from Diabetes , 7% males and 6 % females were suffering from respiratory ailments .
Overall average occurrence across occupations was found to be thus :
Obesity 44 % , Diabetes 20 %, Hypertension 16 % & , alarmingly 7 % of the students suffered from Hypertension
India’s biggest enemy is taking the shape of a multiple headed monster i.e. Chronic diseases .We must be proactive in keeping India prepared for victory against our biggest enemy, Non- Communicable diseases. If we win the war against chronic diseases, rest of the enemies could be easily defeated, but if we lose the war against chronic diseases, we would certainly lose the war against all other enemies
The right word for NCD’s is ‘Irreversible diseases’ or ‘debilitating chronic disorders- DCD’s’ or ‘Life threatening disorders – LTD’s ’ . As a first step, let us address the diseases with the seriousness they need ! Let’s change the name from NCD’s to LTD’s or DCD’s. Through the same note , I call upon the UN & WHO to redefine the terminology for addressing these disorders .
Dr.Singh , I must highlight you the points of discussions that we had at this special session at the UN on chronic diseases .
President of the General Assembly emphasized the need for a global response to the challenge of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). NCD prevention and control should not be seen as competing with other development and health priorities, and solutions must be integrated with existing initiatives
The Deputy Secretary-General noted that NCDs are a threat to societal well-being, taking
their greatest toll in developing countries. This is an issue that the United Nations is taking very seriously to ensure that there is a global response to the broader social and economic impact of NCDs. Praising the work and commitment of those present at the hearing, who are at the frontline of the fight against NCDs, she encouraged them to learn from and link with those working on other key health development issues – HIV/AIDS, and maternal and child health.
The World Health Organization’s Assistant Director-General for Non communicable Diseases and Mental Health cited key evidence on the scale, distribution and impact of the global NCD epidemic. Reviewing the key achievements of the past decade, he noted the important role that civil society had played in progress of management of chronic diseases to date
The Director-General of the King Hussein Cancer Foundation, Princess Dina Mired of Jordan,
emphasized the need for everybody to be unified in their efforts to get NCDs on the global
agenda and receive the attention they deserve
The first roundtable addressed the health, social and economic scale of the NCD challenge.
There is a fundamental right to good health that is being undermined by the globalization of
NCD risk factors and an insufficient action to date. Thus, a human rights-based approach to
NCD prevention and control is warranted. The global response to NCDs needs to address the
developmental and political aspects of the drivers of the main NCDs, and this will require
collective action – no individual country will be able to deal with the problem alone. Much greater progress can, and must be made in preventing and controlling the NCD epidemic to prevent unnecessary suffering and premature deaths.
Speakers emphasized the need for urgent national and global action as NCDs are increasingly frustrating social and economic development. Some countries already suffer the ‘double burden’ of communicable and non-communicable diseases as well as under- and over nutrition, sometimes in the same household. Health systems in all countries will not be able to cope with the projected burden of NCDs and governments need to be clear that the cost of intervening is much less than the cost of inaction. The economic burden of NCDs is already substantial and will become staggering over the next two decades. Economic policy makers need to better understand that NCDs pose a significant economic threat as they can be expensive to treat, require long-term management and undermine the labour contribution to production. There is also a substantial opportunity cost as the money spent on treating preventable diseases could be spent on other priorities.
Speakers stressed that the economic impact of NCDs is felt disproportionately among the poor and many individuals and families are already tipped into poverty by these diseases; thus NCDs are also a social justice issue. This will only worsen if NCDs are not prioritized in countries’ health and development plans. Health systems strengthening must address the need for social insurance to reduce the potential for ‘catastrophic’ expenditure by individuals who suffer from an NCD.
Given the complexity of the factors driving the NCD epidemic, speakers underscored the need for a response that is ‘whole-of-government’, multi sectoral and spans the life-course.
Both prevention and control are essential, and there is much that can be done by more systematically applying existing knowledge. There are highly cost-effective population and individual interventions for the four main NCD key risk factors – tobacco use, poor diet, inadequate physical activity and harmful use of alcohol – and these should be prioritized.
Focusing on the ‘best buys’ should not be at the expense of the broader range of approaches that is needed to effectively reduce the impact of these risk factors. Speakers noted that this includes the need to consider the broader social, environmental and economic determinants of health, which strongly shape health-related choices and decisions made by communities, families and individuals. Likewise, the cultural, religious and social context should be considered in implementing effective interventions.
Many speakers highlighted the need for a response that is integrated – not competing – with existing initiatives, improving health systems for all conditions regardless of their origin.
There is great potential for synergy with existing health development priorities, including those in the MDGs. The important role of health professionals in both prevention and control was highlighted by speakers. A holistic approach is required that addresses the needs of people and doesn’t treat diseases in isolation. In this sense, other non-communicable conditions such as mental health and substance abuse and oral health disorders should be considered in the health system response to NCDs.
The leadership role of governments was highlighted, which should include a commitment to developing and implementing a national NCD action plan and committing to ‘health in all policies’. It was repeatedly emphasized that all key stakeholders need to be involved in the response, but it was noted that clarity of roles is essential to ensure that potential conflicts of interest are appropriately managed and it was proposed that frameworks be developed to assist countries to do so. It was noted that there are some industrial influences that are in conflict with not just health and social goals but also the goals of other industry and private sector actors; all stakeholders have an interest in dealing with these negative influences.
Speakers agreed on the need for ongoing and improved surveillance of NCDs, their risk factors and outcomes. This will be needed to monitor progress, guide policy decisions and research priorities, and provide information on the effectiveness of different interventions.
There was strong endorsement of the need for a clear monitoring and accountability framework as part of the global response to NCDs, with measurable indicators that countries can report against.
Finally, it was noted that success is possible, and there are many examples of significant and rapid progress in addressing NCDs. Now is the time to scale up collective action on NCDs, and the opportunity must not be lost to avoid the growing negative social and economic consequences of the NCD epidemic.
The second roundtable examined effective ways to address the NCD epidemic. Much is known about effective interventions at both the population and individual levels to both prevent and control NCDs.
These include tobacco control as set out in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control; reducing the sugar, salt, trans-fats and saturated fats content of processed food; improved diets; increased physical activity; effective policies and programmes to reduce the harmful use of alcohol; and providing low-cost high-quality essential medicines and technologies.
For example, chapters four and five of the WHO Global Status Report on non communicable diseases 2010 summarize the ‘best buys’ in NCD prevention and control http://www.who.int/nmh/publications/ncd_report2010/en/index.html
There is little contention about the evidence for the most cost-effective interventions, and the challenge is thus primarily one of ensuring their proper implementation. It was agreed that NCDs are a societal problem, so a range of government departments and societal actors need to be involved in the response. An effective mechanism to achieve this should be a priority for every country. There is an important role for civil society and civil society should be given a formal role in both the development and implementation of each country’s response.
Speakers highlighted that premature deaths from NCDs are largely preventable, and prevention is central to a more effective NCD response at both national and global levels.
Many primary and secondary preventive interventions are highly cost-effective and there are existing tools to support their implementation, including agreed international codes, strategies and Conventions.
Full implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) was cited by many speakers as being a top priority for action, due to the domination of tobacco-related premature deaths across the NCDs – currently six million per year. The FCTC is now widely ratified by both developing and developed countries, but more can and should be done to support its full implementation in developing countries.
NCD prevention and control should be grounded in a life-course approach, given the fatal and early childhood origins of some NCDs. Children are an important focus for interventions, with the growing impact of risk factors such as obesity on children and adolescents and the opportunity afforded to reach them through schools. Likewise, women are an important target for interventions as child bearers and, frequently, as the ‘gatekeepers’ for food, physical activity and health services for families. Speakers also emphasized the importance of prevention and effective treatment across the life-course, including into older age where much of the burden or diseases falls.
Speakers agreed on the need for an effective health system, which has benefits for all areas of health, not just NCDs. Primary care is the key healthcare setting for cost-effective NCD prevention and control. An important learning from HIV/AIDS is the need for better integration of prevention and treatment services across disease areas – so-called ‘horizontal’ and ‘diagonal’ approaches. In support of this, one participant proposed ’15 by 15′ – namely that by 2015, 15% of funding in all ‘vertical’ programs should be earmarked for strengthening ‘horizontal’ health systems activities. In low-income countries, such approaches should also address the endemic NCDs that affect the so-called ‘bottom billion’, for example sickle cell anemia and rheumatic heart disease, as well as palliative care.
Speakers referred to the roles that civil society organizations can play in NCD prevention and control. There is a significant opportunity to use information and communication technologies to promote health awareness and increase empowerment of individuals and communities to reduce their exposure to NCD risk factors and supporting self care.
Many speakers emphasized that access to essential medicines and technologies for prevention and treatment of NCDs is critical. The cost of the essential medicines is low, and these should be included in readily available ‘packages’ of essential care; this will require increasing manufacturing capacity of essential drugs to ensure quick access to high quality generic pharmaceuticals. The specific need for better access to adequate pain relief, especially morphine, as part of palliative care was raised by several speakers. It was noted that late presentation is all too common in developing countries, partly because of a lack of universal social insurance, as well as lack of awareness; both need to be addressed to avoid unnecessary suffering and premature deaths. Patient and ‘survivor’ groups should be engaged in policy and implementation and can play a significant role in influencing the public, politicians and the media with their stories.
Speakers noted that governments need to set the pace for change and utilize their power to ensure appropriate regulation to achieve public health goals. This may require regulation at both national and international levels to address significant health threats such as the obesity epidemic, for example to support the effective implementation of standards on marketing of unhealthy foods to children and agreed targets for salt reduction. Children and the public should be protected from commercial marketing that encourages unhealthy actions and, exposed to educational messages in schools and in their communities that encourage healthy action. The use of social media to deliver such messages needs to be greatly expanded. The role of physical activity was raised by a number of speakers. The benefits of physical activity are wider than NCD prevention and national and local policies should create an environment that encourages and supports people to be physically active.
Regarding the resources required to prevent and control NCDs, speakers noted that the majority of funding for health comes from within countries, and States need to mobilize their own resources. Health needs to be a higher priority for government spending, and NCDs a higher priority in health spending – this is the only way that funding will be sustainable in the long term. Likewise, current spending on NCD prevention and control needs to be carefully scrutinized to ensure the best possible value for money. NCD prevention and control should also be considered in decisions about ODA for health, in particular through integration with existing health development priorities. In addition, innovative funding mechanisms will need to be explored.
Many speakers emphasized that one important source of funding for NCD prevention and control is through increasing taxation of tobacco products. Tobacco taxation is also irrefutably one of the most effective ways to decrease tobacco consumption, particularly among young people, and is fundamental to an effective tobacco control programme.
Speakers endorsed the need to build capacity and capability to address NCDs among health professionals. This will require concerted efforts to revised training curricula, dealing with ‘brain drain’ of trained professionals from low income to higher income countries, and greatly strengthening research capacity in developing countries to monitor trends and evaluate interventions.
The final roundtable examined ways to scale up action at the global level to collectively address NCD prevention and control. The full range of stakeholders, including all those present at the debate, was identified as been essential to a more effective response. It is vital to carefully examine previous international experiences to draw out the key lessons.
The value of international instruments such as the FCTC was emphasized, and it was noted that other such instruments may be needed in the future to support effective international action.
Speakers provided specific examples of enabling mechanisms to support global cooperation, including a ‘clearing house’ function to facilitate knowledge sharing, a global forum, and bilateral and multilateral partnerships to support technology and knowledge transfer.
The need for appropriate monitoring and accountability was reiterated, noting that accountability is a national responsibility that can be supported by appropriate international monitoring.
It was acknowledged that the funding environment is currently challenging, but there is much that can be done with existing funding. At the national level, there are opportunities to generate or ‘free up’ resources, for example through taxation of tobacco, alcohol and foods high in fat or sugar, and reprioritizing spending on ineffective and expensive health care interventions. Reducing donor ‘silos’ will help to ensure that health development occurs in a much more integrated way that will benefit NCDs as well as other priority areas. There is a need to expand the donor base, and opportunities to do so through linking with other related issues such as climate change.
International federations of NGOs, private sector and other organizations have a useful role to play in promoting global cooperation. Representatives of the research-based pharmaceutical industry and the food and non-alcoholic beverage industries outlined pledges they have made to contribute to NCD prevention and control. There is potential to expand new partnerships, for example with the sporting goods industries to promote physical activity. The private sector can bring a range of capabilities to support NCD prevention and control; for example, its global reach, and experience with global brands and global marketing campaigns. With respect to NGOs, speakers identified the value of greater collaboration, which has been realized over the past two years. This has greatly enhanced their ability to mobilize resources, advocate and generate social and political momentum. This collaboration will need to be further developed to support and monitor the implementation of the outcome document that is to be adopted in September.
Sir George Alleyne, Director Emeritus of the Pan American Health Organization,summarized many of the key points canvassed during the day’s discussions. He noted a strong degree of coherence in the day’s discussion and agreement on the need to act urgently, while acknowledging the different views within and between the different stakeholder groups on some key issues. Underscoring the need to use proven tools and the value of strong partnerships within the UN and across broader society, Sir George urged all stakeholders to work together for the global public good of reduced suffering and early deaths from NCDs. He echoed the comments of many speakers on the need to integrate NCD prevention and control with action on other key health priorities, notably HIV/AIDS and maternal and child health.
In concluding, Sir George Alleyne exhorted participants to increase their efforts to stimulate political action on NCDs. Civil Society has the resources and passion to overcome the apparent inertia and it must use its unique ability to ‘agitate’ for change. The wider public needs to be informed of the size of the problem and of the consequences of inaction. He emphasized that the High-level Meeting is an important milestone but that sustained action will be needed beyond September.
In closing, the President of the General Assembly emphasized that, as with other key health and development issues, all stakeholders need to act collectively to address the global challenge of non-communicable diseases. He noted that the global community can act decisively and effectively on important global health issues, and we must learn from these prior experiences. It is in our common interest to act now.
Thanking all those who participated in the hearing, the President noted his optimism that the High-level Meeting and the subsequent response will make a real difference to the global NCD epidemic. This optimism had been strengthened by quality of the discussion and range of ideas canvassed during the hearing and the obvious energy and sense of purpose from all stakeholder groups.
Principal conclusions
The key conclusions of the hearing include the following:
Countries should move urgently to prevent and control NCDs to alleviate the significant social, economic and health impact these diseases are having, which is now compromising development gains. The last decade has seen some progress at the global level in NCD prevention and control and it is clear that concerted action and leadership by governments can result in significant and rapid progress. However, efforts need to be greatly scaled up to avert unsustainable increases in the costs of treating NCDs, which no country can afford.
There is a strong consensus that NCDs are a development issue and urgently need to be afforded greater priority in national health and development plans, and a higher priority in government funding decision. NCDs also need to be incorporated into the global development agenda in ways that complement rather than compete with existing health development priorities, and innovative funding mechanisms need to be rapidly identified and implemented.
The complex drivers of NCDs require multi-stakeholder action, and countries should put in place a mechanism to engage all the sectors needed for an effective response. Governments should ‘set the pace’ of the response and must show political courage and leadership.
Addressing the key risk factors for NCDs will require involvement of government, communities, civil society, non-government organizations, academia and the private sector. It is important that potential conflicts of interest are appropriately managed so that effective action is not compromised.
NCDs disproportionately affect the poor at global and, in many cases, national levels and lead to ‘catastrophic’ expenditure that forces people below the poverty line. Universal social insurance schemes are essential to avoid this and their implementation should be a priority, with attendant benefits for health care that go beyond just NCDs.
Countries should prioritize the implementation of the most cost-effective population and individual level interventions to prevent NCDs, some of which are in fact cost saving, to ensure they are getting the best value for money from existing expenditure. These interventions should be the priority for new spending on NCD prevention and control.
A renewed commitment to full implementation of the FCTC is essential to prevent a huge burden of suffering and many millions of premature deaths among working age people.
Countries should honour their commitment not just to full implementation nationally, but to international cooperation to support low-income countries to implement the FCTC.
Countries should continue to strengthen NCD surveillance and monitoring to inform and guide NCD policy and action at both national and international levels.
The health system response to NCDs must be fully integrated with programmes that address other key health issues, to ensure that services are delivered around the needs of the people who use them. Access to high-quality and affordable essential medicines is an essential component, and the implantation of programmes to deliver them effectively in low resource settings.
The outcome document for the High-level Meeting must have clear objectives and measurable indicators, supported by a monitoring and evaluation function, to support national accountability for scaling up NCD prevention and control. Civil society organizations should play a role in independently monitoring and reporting on progress.
It is essential the Heads of State and Government attend the High-level Meeting, to ensure that there is the high-level political commitment to scale up NCD prevention and control.
Countries should consider including NGOs on their delegations to the High-level Meeting, as they can bring technical expertise, can help to mobilize political support, and will be essential actors in implementing the agreed outcomes of the High-level Meeting.
Health workers are key to an effective national response to NCDS, but many are not trained to prevent, detect and manage NCDs. Training curricula should be reviewed to ensure that health workers receive relevant training in both NCD prevention and control.
Governments should look to tobacco taxation as a key way of raising revenue to prevent and control NCDs – in addition, this is a highly effective way to reduce smoking rates, particularly among young people.
DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance asks you to attend the UN Summit and in person and make this a high priority for the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare . We are also calling for the establishment of a NCDs partnership to lead multi- sectoral and coordinated action, and a UN Decade of Action on NCDs to implement the commitments governments will make at the UN Summit in New York
DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance would be pleased to provide your office with any further information in preparation for the UN Summit.
NCDs have the power to affect us all. Increasingly NCD’s strike people in younger age groups, including children, threatening international economic progress. But we are not powerless.
We have achievable cost-effective solutions. We need political leadership now to make them a reality. Please be a champion for NCDs by attending the UN Summit in September and safeguard the health and prosperity of future generations in India
We sincerely hope that the country will take leadership and set an example for the world on how to manage chronic diseases through early interventions
DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance Recommends that:
Indian government establishes an NGO-Private Healthcare Players – Government Alliance . An India NCDs Alliance , linked to WHO, to coordinate follow up action with member states, other UN and multilateral agencies, foundations, NGOs and private sector
Post my return from UN session , I had discussions with leading pharmaceutical companies as to how to get their support and involvement in this major pan India efforts. All the
Companies I have talked to are willing to work with the government on the way to address the issue of chronic diseases . I believe that we must involve the companies in our outreach efforts and form a long term partnership with the pharmaceutical companies
Finally , I must state that success will depend on the development of strategic partnerships, ensuring there are explicit and measurable targets, and governments providing the necessary political leadership. I would be grateful for your consideration of the following in order to ensure a successful Summit in September:
DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance is a not-for-profit organization formed by global healthcare leaders , and the only civil society organization in India dedicated to the management of chronic disease management in India . In the past three years , DMAI has worked at both International level and within India to address the issue of chronic diseases with the support of patient groups , Industry & policy makers , and wishes to put on record the continuous support DMAI has received from policy makers and the industry . We wish to expand this association further to address the issue of NCD’s together in form of a ‘PPPP’ – Profitable Private public partnerships . I personally believe , that if the first “P” – Profit is missing from PPP We would just be restricted to pilot stage. We should not shy from adding the additional “P” – Profits , so that the industry is incentivized to align its goals to government, and work together in a sustainable and profitable manner with performance that is measurable and with positive outcomes
I think without profit , government cannot demand performance ; and without performance, private players should not expect profit . So profit has a pivotal role in the success of PPPP
To show our support for this summit , we have put the sub-theme ‘Management of Chronic Diseases using technology’ at the International Telemedicine Congress (www.telemedicon11.com ) that I am chairing from 11-13 November 2011 at Mumbai, India.
We would very much appreciate the opportunity to share perspectives on the meeting with you or one of your colleagues. At your earliest convenience, please let me know your availability in the coming weeks.
We look forward to your personal participation with a team of civil society organizations at the High-Level UN Summit in September, & I am sure that your thoughts will be really helpful for the summit and will set an example for others to follow . We wish you and the UN a successful summit .
Yours sincerely,
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President & Member of the Board
Disease Management Association of India
Member – Healthcare , QCI. Government of India
P.N. : Details of the work done by DMAI in managing chronic diseases is available at the website www.dmai.org.in
Encl: Message at the UN delivered on 16th June 2011.
CC:
H.E. Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General , United Nations
H.E. Joseph Diess , President of the UN General Assembly
Hon’ble Deputy Secretary General of the UN General Assembly
Ms. Margaret Chan, Director General, WHO
Shri Ghulam Nabi Azad , Hon’ble Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, GOI
Dr.K. Srinath Reddy , President , PHFI
Minister of State for Health & Family Welfare , GOI
Dr.Syeda Hameed, Planning Commission , GOI
Shri K.Chandramouli, Secretary , H&FW , GOI
Board Of Directors , Disease Management Association of India – DMAI , The Population Health Improvement Alliance .
Address of the President of DMAI – The Population Health Improvement Alliance at the UN on 16th June 2011
Venue : UN General Assembly Hall , United Nations , New York.
Chaired by Mr. Joseph Deiss , President of the UN General Assembly .
Dear Friends ,
I am honored to be here , & have few key points for the special high level, two-day session that UN will convene in September 2011 for addressing the issue of chronic diseases.
I appreciate the point that UN session talks about local issues across regions . I would further suggest the United Nations that , if we want the governments to act on its recommendations , we must go beyond local i.e. get micro . My experience in public policy makes me believe that governments do appreciate and act on recommendations that are local but also focus on micro issues .
We have mega goals but our actions have to be micro and we must suggest inputs that are local and at micro level, for execution.
Also, let us accept the fact that for this generation , we are late, and we have already missed the bus . What I would not like is, that our next generation sits in the same UN General Assembly hall after 40 years , and discusses the same issues related to chronic diseases , and says that ‘our earlier generation behaved irresponsibly and did nothing for us ! ’. So the time has come for us to distinguish the ‘Urgent’ & ‘Important’ . Urgent is that we must fix the issues related to the chronic diseases now , but it is more Important that we plan to build a healthier next generation . So my expectation from the UN is, that there will be a dedicated session related to Child health at the UN General Assembly in September .
Also that, the technology is becoming all-pervasive and we must use this UN session to promote the use of mHealth to address the issue of chronic diseases . I am expecting that the UN general assembly will dedicate a session to mHealth, and how it can help in the delivery of care for chronic diseases.
Lastly , I would like to run a quick survey on ABCDE of Chronic Diseases / Healthcare . Where, A stands for – Asthma/ Arthritis , B stands for Blood Pressure , C stands for CVD / Cancer , D stands for Diabetes & E stands for Epilepsy / Elderly patients ( as 84 % of all the elderly patients are on one or more medications)
If anyone of you or your immediate family members have any of these ABCDE , please raise hands .
The response is unbelievable ! I have made a point . It is not about the 5 or 10 % prevalence rate of chronic diseases. We have just now had the visual proof of the prevalence of chronic diseases , and it is much higher than the figures that we read often .
It’s time to act now .
Thank you.
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Recording of the speech is available at www.un.org/webcasts
March – April meant a lot of travel and meetings for myself , but the most interesting part were a few conversations that I will never forget !!
Whenever I am travelling to places within India and abroad , I make sure that I interact with people and ask them how much they know of our great country and what they feel about it . I am always proud to be born in this great country . May be , this drives me to find some answers to questions that need not be stated here !!
One conversation I had was with a senior columnist in Kashmir during my visit last month . While we were talking , the issue of partition came up ( this topic is close to my heart as my mother was born and brought up in Lahore , now in Pakistan ) .
This columnist had an interesting point : He mentioned that due to the insatiable lust for power in Nehru , India got divided . His belief was that, Jinnah was at his fag-end due to cancer , if only Nehru would have waited for one more year ( It is not good to have a wish that one dies of cancer but…) , we could have saved ourselves from partition . The columnist went on to add , how could India leave Khyber pass and partition India and give away the pass to Pakistan ;The only way to reach Europe ?? I do not know geography so much , but he had an interesting point !
Other discussion I had was with my cab driver on the way from Washington DCA airport to the hotel . I figured out that the driver seemed to be from our part of the world , So I asked him where he belonged to ? I was right , he was from Pakistan but settled in the US for over 28 years !! While we kept talking about our countries before Partition and the sad story of strained relations now . He shared some very interesting information of why India got partitioned ?
According to this cabbie . India had the maximum number of Muslims , and Nehru & Congress party knew very well that, if India remained united , the vote of Muslims would swing to Indian Muslim League and not come to congress , so Nehru used his proximity with Edwina Mountbatten and planted the thought of partition in Jinnah. Well, I never thought of this angle !! Further this cabbie informed that, if you see the history of Jinnah a few years before freedom , he was never in favor of a partition . It was a congress and Nehru’s game plan and they never wanted to share a few states with IML ( Indian Muslim League ), which would have garnered power in some states, as some states had Muslims in majority , and Hindu’s & Muslims lived in complete harmony .
I completely empathise with this cabbie . I can only state that my mother’s family stayed in Lahore and Karachi , and I have seen my grandfather writing letters in Urdu , it never was an issue . It was planted by congress and today both nations are paying a price for the naked & insatiable lust of Nehru & his congress for grabbing power in 1947 .
The amount of money both these nations have spent on armed forces and conflict would have made this region developed in just 25 -30 years after freedom . But what we got was freedom for Nehru family to rule this nation and not for India !! Now we can well understand why Gandhi ji was in Calcutta during Independence and not with Nehru !! Gandhi ji died at the right time. Had he been alive , he would have revolted against Nehru .
AICC should have been dissolved after independence : Gandhi ji was never in favor of AICC continuing after freedom , In fact , he made a suggestion that since the objective of the congress were achieved by getting freedom from the British , it must be dissolved . But we know that Nehru had a different plan and India continues to ruin under this party !!
One of the interesting viewpoints I can share is from LKY ( Lew Kuan Yew , Father of Modern Singapore ). He has openly criticized Nehru for aping the central planning of the Soviet Union . LKY went on add that Nehru was a good writer & poet but not a great leader for India . Nehru kept promoting the non-aligned movement for the developing world but strongly sided with the soviet Union ( that is , he said one thing and did just the opposite , this is what I call the ‘Nehru Gene’ , which by the way is a legacy of the Gandhi family and its congress ) , and in the end, Nehru caused more harm to India than any other leader ! Nehru had a great opportunity to change the course of the nation immediately after freedom as he had a free hand and people believed in him , but he missed the opportunity .
Indians know that Nehru was the one who took Kashmir to United Nations , he was the one who promoted industries and not SME’s & agriculture ! Nehru guided India towards a disaster with his short-sighted policies ‘Nehru gene’ still rules the Gandhi family and the congress, and it is time to let this party be out of power for at least two terms so that the country can be brought back on track
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
On 15th June , i wrote on my blog about the topic ‘ High GDP but low GDP per capita’ is like growth without progress and prosperity . Well, i did not know that 11 days after the blog a report would come out that would validate my analysis . Here is the report
According to the 2009 Asia Pacific wealth report , by Capegemini and Merrill Lynch wealth management , India’s high net worth Individuals ( HWNI’s ) are 120,000 ( 0.01 % ) but their combined net worth is close to one third of the India’s GDP
At the peak of recession ,in 2008, India had 84000 HNWI’s with a combined net worth of $310 billion . To put that figure in perspective , it was just under a third of India’s market capitalization , that is, the total value of all companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange – as of end March 2008. The average worth of each HNWI was Rs.16.6 crore .
According to the firm’s 2010 World Wealth Report , India now has 126,700 HNWI’s , an increase of over 50 % over the 2008 number . In 2009 alone , an estimated 13.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty than would have been the case had the 2008 growth rates continued , according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ( UNDESA ). Also, an estimated 33.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty over 2008 and 2009 than would have been poor has the pre-crisis (2004-7 ) growth rates been maintained .
I keep saying that recession or growth that we keep reading in the Times of India or The Economic Times , is only affecting people who read these newspapers. Rest all live under abject poverty .
Read the presentation that i made at the 6th India Innovation Summit on 18th June 2010 at Bangalore . You will see that our demographic dividend is fast becoming demographic disaster !! ( Download the presentation from http://www.rajendra.groupsite.com )
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email : office@rajendragupta.in
A Common Man's View Point (Blog) 