On October 11, 2012, i wrote the blog ‘From Emerging to a Submerging Economy’ https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/
I read the story in the Economic Times today, titled ‘Feast of Burden’ ( Page 10, ET dated August 3-9, 2014). It is almost two years since i wrote my blog and this story on corporate debt. Things are still the same , rather have gone worse . For example ,
The cumulative debt of;
- Tata Group is about Rs. 2.00 lac Crore
- Reliance ADA Group is about Rs. 83,000 Crore
- Jaypee Group is about Rs.66,000 Crore
- Bharti Group is about Rs.60,541 Crore
- GMR Group is about Rs.37,788 Crore
- Lanco Group is about 34, 876 Crore
- HCC is about Rs. 11,150 Crore
I am not mentioning the rest of the groups like ESSAR etc…. Small and mid-size companies would further make the situation scary .
It is time that the Government asked all these companies to come out with a clear statement of how they are going to service these debts, to ensure that these companies do not end up creating a ‘cloud burst’ for the Indian middle class and disturb the economic prospects of this developing country
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Please read this before you think about whom to vote for ? We cannot afford to experiment with new parties or give another chance to a privately owned political party… We need a party with a proven track record of delivering results , and that is BJP ….
State of the Nation: – A Decade of Decay
Decade under the UPA I & II can rightly be summed in one line, the ‘Decade of Decay’, in which India had a free fall on all fronts – be it economic failure, diplomatic humiliation, failure of foreign policy, intrusions across borders, corruption & scams or crimes against women. There has been gross misuse & total denigration of government & constitutional institutions and this has eroded the office of the Prime Minister. The Government dithered by each passing day, casting gloom and doom on the country that was once under the NDA regime called the ‘Emerging Super Power’. In 2004, NDA left the Government with 8.1 % growth. The UPA could not even maintain that growth and mismanaged the country so badly, that the growth rate declined to 4.8 %, with the nation in a deep mess. We have lost a wonderful opportunity and have pushed the nation 20 years behind and rendered millions jobless and hopeless.
CAD now exceeds even 1990-91 Level – India is revisiting the crisis of 1991.
Between 2001-02 and 2003-04, the nation had a pleasant experience on balance of payments, turning surplus for continuously three years, which was unprecedented after the post-independence period. All the gains of the NDA period have been frittered away in saving the dynasty rule through various election-financing schemes
Debt Trap – A result of Wrong policies
Total public debt on India is Rs 4,606,350 crore, and the debt per capita stands at about Rs 38,000
Rising NPAs – things are going from bad to worse
Economy is slowing down and the banks are under strain. Defaults have led to NPAs almost doubling from the 2009 levels. Rs. 2.43 lac Crore of estimated NPAs are in 40 listed banks as on December 2013. Rs.4.0 Lac crore is the amount of restructured loan under the CDR scheme.
The Indian rupee, which was at par with the American currency at the time of Independence in 1947, has touched its historic record low of below 68.80 against the dollar under the UPA
Jobs – Shrinking job market
The employment generation actually decreased sharply between 2004-05 and 2009-10, especially when compared to the earlier five-year period.
In the five years from 1999-2000 – 2004-05, NDA created 60.7 million new jobs against the 2.76 million new jobs between the years 2004-05 to 2009-10 under the UPA. Now, India is going to lose more jobs in the coming years due to the wrong policies of the UPA
Poverty & illiteracy is the result of Congress misrule
416 million poor, 316 million illiterate & more than 600 million population without toilets sums up the outcome of the economic policies followed by Congress
India continues to be one of the hungriest nations in the world & accounts for 42 per cent of the world’s underweight children.
India’s Human Development Index rank has a negative trend for the time period 2007-12, which indicates deterioration in the indicators determining the Human Development Index.
Inflation: Price rise during the UPA years – Contrary to the Global Phenomenon
Whenever it came to low rate of growth, UPA justified that it was due to global economic situation, but the same cannot be justified for the increasing food prices in India. In November 2013, the Food Prices Index fell by 4.4 % globally, while in India, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was estimated to be close to 20 % in November 2013.
On one side, we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low, and on the other side, UPA is groping in the dark for the past decade to find a solution for inflation and deficits. Country’s growth that reached near double-digit due to initiatives of the NDA government has come down to 4.5 %, that too remained because monsoons played a face saver and there was a high growth in agriculture ( 4 %). Year 2013 had an unusually good monsoon favoring a good agricultural yield, but had the monsoons been average, the growth would have been below 3 %. It was the agriculture & not the Government Policies that saved the nation from a collapse!
The State of the Education Sector in India declining
Health and education are defining sectors for equitable human development and sustainable and inclusive economic growth of India.
Despite levying a tax to fund education and enacting a law to ensure access to education for all children between the ages of 6 and 14, the government hasn’t succeeded in improving the learning outcomes in India’s schools, because the UPA thoroughly bungled the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan initiated by the NDA.The quality of learning has either shown no improvement or actually worsened in the nine years of the UPA’s rule
Recognized as a critical element for India’s growth, the UPA government had claimed way back in its first term, that 6% of the GDP would be spent on education, which is a bare minimum for an emerging economy like ours. Nonetheless, the sector still stands at around 4% of the GDP today.
It is unfortunate, but the UPA government and the Ministry of Human Resource Development have surely missed the focus on Education and Employment, and the Research & Development expenditure has stagnated under the UPA.
Health care – India’s ticking time bomb
Healthcare is still inaccessible and unaffordable to the masses. Out of pocket spending is still high at 78 %. Goals set forth under NRHM have not been achieved and the scheme has floundered. UPA has failed to deliver health, or healthcare, despite a huge spending.
Agriculture Sector – Farmers and Farming Neglected
Due to lack of investment (both public & private) in agriculture, the share of agriculture in GDP has dropped to less than 15%. UPA has failed to increase investment, productivity & profitability of agriculture, leading to farmer suicides, migration from agriculture and widening the urban-rural divide. The Nation is left at the mercy of rain Gods!
India’s Foreign Policy – Alien to India’s strategic interests!
The past decade has witnessed, a directionless Indian Foreign Policy under the UPA I & II; of alienation and antagonism in relations with South Asian neighbours, & of international humiliation. India has been miserably failing in accomplishing its national interest due to poor diplomacy
India has slipped to 60th position in terms of its competitiveness globally. This is India’s lowest ever rank and also 31 place below its peer emerging market -China. With regards to GCI, India is placed at 60th position out of 148 economies
India is ranked 134th position out of 189 countries in terms of ease of doing business
Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2012 ranked India at 94, out of 176 nations
In the global happiness-ranking list, India stands at rank 111-much after Pakistan (rank: 81) and Bangladesh (108).
Downgrade to downfall !
International rating agencies have been warning that India’s Baa3 rating is in danger of a downgrade, which has vitiated the investment climate. Any further downgrade would club the economy with junk-grade countries.
The fiscal profligacy of the UPA government has put India into a tight corner when it comes to repayment of borrowings. Government bonds worth Rs 1567 billion (Rs 1,56,700 crore) is coming up for redemption in fiscal year 2014-15 & In the fiscal years 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19, government bonds worth Rs 114600 crore, Rs 231200 crore, Rs 256700 crore and Rs 242400 crore are coming up for redemption, respectively.
Where is India headed ?
Erosion of moral and societal values and governance
Crimes & corruption are on the rise across the nation and scams have impacted all the sectors like Panchayat, Housing, Education, Health, Agriculture, Mining, telecom etc. No one is untouched from corruption in the UPA regime
Corruption has become a part of the daily life. There is hardly any day when we do not come across the cases of flourishing corrupt practices getting exposed in one form or another. The policies of UPA have resulted in fast degradation of moral, societal,and cultural values
Use your right to vote to seek a change for a better India
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
India needs a holistic care system that is universally accessible, affordable and effective and drastically reduces the out of pocket spending on health. NRHM has failed to meet the objectives and will be radically reformed. BJP accords high priority to health sector, which is crucial for securing the economy.
The overarching goal of healthcare would be to provide, ‘Health Assurance to all Indians and to reduce the out of pocket spending on health care’, with the help of state governments.
The current situation calls for radical reforms in the healthcare system with regards to national healthcare programs and delivery, medical education and training and financing of healthcare. Our government would focus on the following reforms in healthcare:
- the last healthcare policy dates back to 2002. India now needs a comprehensive healthcare policy to address the complex healthcare challenges, keeping in view the developments in the healthcare sector and the changing demographics. BJP will initiate the New Health Policy.
- initiate the ‘National Health Assurance Mission’, with a clear mandate to provide universal healthcare that is not only accessible and affordable, but also effective, and reduces the OOP spending for the common man.
- Education and Training – Will review the role of various professional regulatory bodies in healthcare and consider setting up an overarching lean body for healthcare. High priority will be given to address the shortfall of healthcare professionals.
- Modernize Government hospitals, upgrading infrastructure and latest technologies.
- Reorganize Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in order to converge various departments dealing in healthcare, food and nutrition and pharmaceuticals, for effective delivery of healthcare services.
- Increase the number of medical and para-medical colleges to make India self sufficient in human resources, and set up an AIIMS like institute in every state.
- Yoga and Ayurveda are the gifts of ancient Indian civilization to humanity and we will increase the public investment to promote Yoga and AYUSH. We will start integrated courses for Indian System of Medicine (ISM) and modern science and Ayurgenomics. We will set up institutions and launch a vigorous program to standardize and validate the Ayurvedic medicine.
- Move to pre-emptive care model where the focus and thrust will be on child health and prevention.
- School health program would be a major focus area, and health and hygiene will be made a part of the school curriculum.
- Focus on Rural Health care delivery.
- Senior Citizens healthcare would be a special focus area.
- Give high priority to chronic diseases, and will invest in research and development of solutions for chronic diseases like obesity, diabetes, cancer, CVD etc.
- Occupational health programs will be pursued aggressively.
- Utilize the ubiquitous platform of mobile phones for healthcare delivery and set up the “National eHealth Authority” to leverage telemedicine and mobile healthcare for expanding reach and coverage and to define the standards and legal framework for technology driven care.
- Universalization of emergency medical services-108.
- Re-orientation of herbal plants board to encourage farming of herbal plants.
- Population stabilization would be a major thrust area and would be pursued as a mission mode program.
- Programme for Women Healthcare with emphasis on rural, SC, ST and OBC in a mission mode.
- Mission mode project to eradicate malnutrition.
- Launch National Mosquito Control mission.
Poor Hygiene and Sanitation have a far reaching, cascading impact. We will ensure a “Swachh Bharat” by Gandhi ji’s 150th birth anniversary in 2019, taking it up in mission mode by converging resources and building around jan bhagidari:
- Create an open defecation free India by awareness campaign and enabling people to build toilets in their home as well as in schools and public places.
- Set up modern, scientific sewage and waste management systems.
- We will introduce Sanitation Ratings measuring and ranking our cities and towns on ‘sanitation’; and rewarding the best performers.
- Make potable drinking water available to all thus reducing water–borne diseases, which will automatically translate into Diarrhoea–free India.
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Author of BJP Election Manifesto along with Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
On 4th June , 2013 , I analysed the data and concluded that the Indian economy would grow below 4 % when most of our economists were speaking of returning to 6-7 % growth in the second half 2013 . https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/
Leading global organizations like IMF / OECD have given similar predictions about Indian economy after 4-5 months of my analysis about the Indian economy
The recent reports of IMF on October 9, 2013 cut the India’s growth to 3.8 % in 2013 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-09/news/42864491_1_world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-global-growth
Also , OECD stated on 19th November, 2013 that India would grow at 3.4 % http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/oecd-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-emerging-market-slowdown.html
On one side , we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low ( Mint , 16th November, 2013) and UPA is still groping in the dark to figure out how to handle inflation , deficits and govern this nation
To me , the fate of truck operators & tractors companies and not the sensex, is directly related to the fate of the common man & is the right indicator of the nation’s economic health. Trucks are the means for transporting goods and thereby, the correct parameter to judge the movement of economy. Truck operators are exiting truck business ( Mint, 26th November, 2013)., which is an indicator of the negative economic indicators
Sales of trucks dropped 29% in the first seven months of 2013, and truck sales have been declining for 20 months in a row according to SIAM and the existing truck operators are operating at 40 % of their capacity. Mint dated 26th Nov.
In my view, this mirrors with the growth slowdown of the economy that was once growing more than 8 % and is now growing around 4.5 % ….. High octane speeches of returning to double-digit growth are fine , but when our markets and rupee move with the news of US quantitative easing , it is good enough of the proof, that the intrinsic strength of this country’s economy is weak and of a lesser weightage than just the good news of foreign markets ( tens of thousands miles away ) or the US quantitative easing !
Small truck operators which constitute 75 % of the market are worst hit ( Mint , 26th Nov), and this must be good enough to sum up where have these Oxford, World Bank, IMF famed economists taken this country to ? May be, good rains can shower some temporary good news , but in the short-term and middle term , India has more tears to worry for than merry for this years good rains
No wonder, S&P downgraded IDBI bank debt to junk status . (Nov 26, 2013). More banks are under strain, but I believe that they would not declare NPAs before the next financial year to avoid disclosures that could add to their and the country’s woes !
Please ask the Hon’ble PM to give a statement on a scheme similar to the Food security bill launched with much fanfare in 1975 to reduce malnutrition . This scheme was called the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) . It has been around for the past 38 years and now again another bill to remove malnutrition ? Despite this scheme being around for about four decades, the scenario is as mentioned below ;
It is a matter of serious concern that the mean per capita consumption of calories has never crossed the minimum threshold for intake ( 2400 Kcal in rural and 2100 Kcal in urban areas), and still about 3/4th of the households do not consumer the minimum calorific intake (Dr.D.K.Taneja, 2013, p. 21)
Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) most commonly prevalent in India . 45.3 percent of children under 3 years are under weight as per NFHS -3. Also, as per NFHS-3 , 33 percent of adult women and 28.1 percent of adult men have below normal BMI (Dr.D.K.Taneja, 2013, p. 301)
According to the information procured from the Ministry of Women and Child development via RTI through their letter dated 25 July 2013 ( F. No. 10-1/2011-CD.II(Pt.II)
Total money spend in 11th plan on ICDS was Rs.43829.53 Crore
Total money spent in 2012-13 is 15701.50 crore
During the 12th Five Year Plan, a total approved allocation of Rs. 1,23,580 crore has been made for the scheme. Any additional requirement of funds under ICDS Scheme can be met through Supplementary Demands for Grants and savings. ( Source http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=93731 )
I think food security bill means ‘another bill for the poor and dollars for the congress’ .
This bill might be another money-making scheme in the name of aam aadmi .. Already, all the FM channels have been bombarded with advertisements for the Food security bill making the intentions of congress very clear that this is a poll gimmick
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Indian milkman uses oxytocin injection twice a day to extract milk from his cattle.
Greedy dairymen inject cattle with veterinary Oxytocin to produce more milk. It is used to force the cow to give milk even after severe beatings and stress. However, it destroys the cow’s reproductive system and she goes dry in just 3 years. She is then abandoned.
A substantial part of the oxytocin injected into the cow seeps into the milk. It is very harmful for humans who unwittingly are made to consume an artificially created hormone. Humans face all the harmful effects of this drug. Children are most susceptible to its effects (it is known to have caused imbalanced hearing and weak eyesight). Common symptoms are exhaustion and loss of energy. Expecting mothers should avoid milk that may have been adulterated with oxytocin because:
– Oxytocin increases the risk of post-partum hemorrhage
– Individual women may be hypersensitive to oxytocin and it can inhibit breastfeeding.
– Oxytocin seriously affects the growth of hormones, especially in females, because of which minor girls attain early puberty.
Oxytocin is also found in phenomenal proportions in beef and other meat. Over 75% of all beef are known to have high and dangerous level of oxytocin content.
The Government of India has acknowledged the negative effects of oxytocin and has declared it as a scheduled substance.
But why I am trying to teach you veterinary science? You must know that FDI in retail, or selling the stakes in Public sector units ( PSU’s ), the one time sale of spectrum, reducing CRR & Chidambaram’s budget are nothing but a dose of ‘Oxytocin’ to our ‘Gau maa’ – Mother India. We will, for sure, temporarily increase the GDP & show some growth in GDP, but the long-term impact would be painful to our economy. Hope good sense will prevail and we will find ‘sustainable models for rural income and consumption’ & focus on sustainable rural economic model to avoid an overdose of Oxytocin for our economy, which will kill it forever…
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Last month, I came across two interesting news , and I thought that I must put a comparison
29th January , 2013 in The Economic Times , it was reported that , Civil Aviation Minister , Ajit Singh has written 20 letters in 9 months for new airports in Uttar Pradesh to the Chief Minister , Akhilesh Yadav.
In the January 2013 issue of Forbes India , I had also read this interesting quote
“Atal Bihari Vajpayee use to narrate a story from the mid-1950’s when he was a young MP in a parliament led by Nehru. Parliament was debating building The Ashoka Hotel, India’s first luxury hotel t be constructed by the state. In one of the debates, Vajpayee said the job of the Government is to build hospitals, not hotels. Nehru was furious at the intrusion of the junior MP from a virtually non-existent party. He told Vajpayee that he didn’t understand anything and added that the state would build hospitals from the hotel’s profits. Decades later, Vajpayee would joke that the hotel was still making losses ( Shourie’s ministry nearly sold it ) and the state had failed to build enough hospitals .
We know that our current ‘Heavy industries minister’ Praful brought wide bodied dreamliners a few years ago when Air India was already grasping for breath, and last week , the ministry put out tenders for sale and re-lease of these dream liners. Should Praful be a minister or in one of the Tihar cells ?
You are the best judge as to what India needs ? A few politicians are just shooting from the mouth without applying their brains and causing billions of dollars of direct loss and much more opportunity loss indirectly