Strong fundamentals of Indian Economy


Please see the total debt , interest and principal payments by the Government of India . Still do you think that we can pull this country out of the mess under the UPA ? We need radical changes

As per data made available by the Ministry of Finance on debt vide RTI dated 13th May 2013 letter dated AAAD/COORD/ L(1)2012;  AS ON 31/12/2012

Government Loans :

Total multilateral debt is INR 2,401,829,740,367

Total bilateral debt is INR 1,046,418,091,740

Total Government loans ( multi-lateral and bilateral ) is INR 3,448,247,832,107

Non – Government loans

Multi-lateral INR 302,495,682,321

Bilateral INR 190,240,677,456

Total Non-governmental Multilateral & Bilateral loans  – INR 492,736,359, 778

Grand total ( Government & Non-Government ) 3,940,984,191,885

Total yearly payments of interests & principal

2011-12                                     2012-13 ( 01.04.12 – 31.12.2012)   Figures in 1000 INR

Interest                 2425686378                                 2028398390

Principal               34823428250                               24641868095

 

 

 

Can you guess the state of India’s economy for 2014 -16 ? Not tough


On 4th June , 2013 , I analysed the data and concluded that the Indian economy would grow below 4 % when most of our economists were speaking of returning to 6-7 % growth in the second half 2013 . http://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/

Leading global organizations like IMF / OECD have given similar predictions about Indian economy after 4-5 months of my analysis about the Indian economy

The recent reports of IMF on October 9, 2013 cut the India’s growth to 3.8 % in 2013 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-09/news/42864491_1_world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-global-growth

Also , OECD stated on 19th November, 2013 that India would grow at 3.4 % http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/oecd-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-emerging-market-slowdown.html

On one side , we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low ( Mint , 16th November, 2013) and UPA is still groping in the dark to figure out how to handle inflation , deficits and govern this nation 

To me , the fate of truck operators & tractors companies and not the sensex, is directly related to the fate of the common man & is the right indicator of the nation’s economic health. Trucks are the means for transporting goods and thereby, the correct parameter to judge the movement of economy. Truck operators are exiting truck business ( Mint, 26th November, 2013)., which is an indicator of the negative economic indicators 

Sales of trucks dropped 29% in the first seven months of 2013, and truck sales have been declining for 20 months in a row according to SIAM and the existing truck operators are operating at 40 % of their capacity. Mint dated 26th Nov.

In my view,  this mirrors with the growth slowdown of the economy that was once growing more than 8 % and is now growing around 4.5 % ….. High octane speeches of returning to double-digit growth are fine , but when our markets and rupee move with the news of US quantitative easing , it is good enough of the proof, that the intrinsic strength of this country’s economy is weak and of a lesser weightage than just the good news of foreign markets ( tens of thousands miles away )  or the US quantitative easing !  

Small truck operators which constitute 75 % of the market are worst hit ( Mint , 26th Nov), and this must be good enough to sum up where have these Oxford, World Bank, IMF famed economists taken this country to ? May be, good rains can shower some temporary good news , but in the short-term and middle term , India has more tears to worry for than merry for this years good rains

No wonder, S&P downgraded IDBI bank debt to junk status . (Nov 26, 2013). More banks are under strain, but I believe that they would not declare NPAs before the next financial year to avoid disclosures that could add to their and the country’s woes !