Gandhi family , Congress core group & the UPA Government


Let us reconstruct a few events

Congress core group meets twice , discusses the ordinance to overrule the supreme court judgement on tainted netas, and sends it to the H.E. President of India to sign .

Firstly , there was no hurry to do so, as this could have been debated in the Parliament . It is another thing that Congress does not like Parliamentary ways of doing debates and democratically running the government . Well, that is a defect in the Nehru -Indira gene ( the same DNA in Indira Gandhi led her to declare the emergency and suspend the constitution and all fundamental rights of Indians) .

President Mukherjee got jittery as BJP was opposing this ordinance tooth and nail , and had submitted a memorandum to the President . AAP ( Anna fame party ) also got jittery and sought a meeting with President Mukherjee and requested that he does not sign the ordinance

Suddenly , the Times of India also realised that it was not taken into ‘confidence’ for this ordinance, and this Jain family run newspaper was left out of the deal behind the doors .So suddenly , TOI started a miss call alert campaign to voice the opposition of its readers against the ordinance ,and the number swelled to five lacs.

Rahul , who reads very less ( no, he has still not been diagnosed with dyslexia .His problem is, that he understands quite late and after he understands that ‘little bit’ , he goes into a state of shock and does not speak or speaks incoherently – this disorder is under investigation by neuro – psychologists – scientists ) . Suddenly was informed by his ‘closed group’ that the public opinion is building up, and it is like 1857 …..Mulayam has been given relief as CBI has withdrawn its case , and now Congress is giving relief to Lalu through this ordinance , and this could pose a challenge to Rahul -Modi contest and Rahul has not taken any ‘stand’ in the past 9 years of Congress rule, and this could be a ‘fantabulous’ opportunity to show that he can do something.

Rahul likes such innovative ideas, he dropped his can of diet coke and could not hold himself and rushed to AICC HQ, where Makkhan was holding a press conference ( he has been called specially from the ministerial group to do this ) , and Rahul’s tongue got the better of him …….. he intended to say ‘ This bunch of idiots ( Sonia Gandhi heads the core group of congress ) and the Cabinet ( headed by a headless MMS) discussed this legislation twice and still came out with piece of bull shit  …. tear it apart …… It was clear that Rahul was not even consulted before hand , after all , he is young and can do mistakes ( which he has admitted now attributing to his harsh words).

Deciphering Rahul’s sentiments , one can conclude, that the Congress core group and the cabinet are headless chickens and cannot think like this ‘game changer’ Rahul does . ( Remember his bee school lecture at CII, he can put Michael Porter to shame with his business lingo !)

It does not end here , yesterday , he went and told every one in media during his Ahmedabad visit ‘ I am not a reluctant politician as you all think’ . Now, media guys are also idiots before this child prodigy Rahul

Then , he said yesterday ‘ i am young , and i can make mistakes , my words were strong , mama told me’ …. so , he disclosed that he discussed this with his mommy …….at the end , dynasty , DNA and an individual have more value than this 1.22 billion people , entire cabinet and the AICC core group….. After all, you and i were not born in that family , it was one and only Rahul . He is superior to everyone !

huh….. what do i write about this grown up chap 🙂

Food Security Bill – Another bill for poor and dollars for congress


Please ask the Hon’ble PM to give a statement on a scheme similar to the Food security bill launched with much fanfare in 1975 to reduce malnutrition . This scheme was called the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) . It has been around for the past 38 years and now again another bill to remove malnutrition ?  Despite this scheme being around for about four decades, the scenario is as mentioned below ;

It is a matter of serious concern that the mean per capita consumption of calories has never crossed the minimum threshold  for intake ( 2400 Kcal in rural and 2100 Kcal in urban areas), and still about 3/4th of the households do not consumer the minimum calorific intake (Dr.D.K.Taneja, 2013, p. 21)

Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) most commonly prevalent in India . 45.3 percent of children under 3 years are under weight as per NFHS -3.  Also, as per NFHS-3 , 33 percent of adult women and 28.1 percent of adult men have below normal BMI (Dr.D.K.Taneja, 2013, p. 301)

According to the information procured from the Ministry of Women and Child development via RTI through their letter dated 25 July 2013 ( F. No. 10-1/2011-CD.II(Pt.II)

Total money spend in 11th plan on ICDS was Rs.43829.53 Crore

Total money spent in 2012-13 is 15701.50 crore

During the 12th Five Year Plan, a total approved allocation of Rs. 1,23,580 crore has been made for the scheme. Any additional requirement of funds under ICDS Scheme can be met through Supplementary Demands for Grants and savings. ( Source http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=93731 )

I think food security bill means  ‘another bill for the poor and dollars for the congress’ .

This bill might be another money-making scheme in the name of aam aadmi .. Already, all the FM channels have been bombarded with advertisements for the Food security bill making the intentions of congress very clear that this is a poll gimmick

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy


India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy

On 22nd March 2012 , I wrote this on my blog and also sent the same to leading public figures .I had stated dwelling  in detail about how,  ‘ Have we oversold the India story’, and this was much before the bad news starting sinking in !

Link to the blog is  http://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/ .

This blog clearly mentioned that we must be prepared for bad news in April – May – June Quarter , and we know that,  India was downgraded as an economy by the international rating agencies ( S&P & Fitch ) and many Indian banks also faced the brunt , many retailers are gasping for breath ….

This time , I have decided to write about the story of how Indian economy would  enter a dark phase if immediate steps are not taken ,and this note is not against anyone but for everyone who wants to see India doing well !  I have tried my best to put data for every statement ( Besides Almighty , everyone should believe in data !).

So now , it is time to peep in the story of how an emerging economy can become a submerging economy .

Let us look at the following data :

Sector – Industry / company Financials ( Loans / NPAs) Source / Remarks
Telecom Sector Rs. 2.00 Lac Crore debt TOI, 26th September , 2012.
Banking Sector NPAs Rs.1.37 Lac crore as of June’12 Mint , 7th September, 2012
Banking Sector According to RBI’s assessment , a fifth of all re-structured loans go   bad . According to RBI, as on March 31, banks had Rs.2.18 Lac worth of   restructured loans on its books Mint, 7th September, 2012
Banking Sector State-run banks  NPA crosses   Rs.1.23 Lac crore Mint , 23/ August/ 2012
Credit card outstanding Rs. 22150.00 Crore As on July/ 21 Ref. ET 14/9/12
Indian Government Total planned borrowing is Rs.5.71 Lac crore for FY 13, of which   Rs.2.0 Lac crore would be in the second half of the fiscal by Dec’12 As per Mint dated September 28, 2012
Banking Sector Report by Credit Suisse group AG points that exposure to 10 large   Industrial groups constitute 13 % of the entire banking system Mint, August 21, 2012.
Banking Sector As of 27th July, Indian banks had loans outstanding of   Rs.36,600.00 Crore to the mining and quarrying sector, and Rs.93,170.00 Crore   to the Telecom sector Mint, 12th September, 2012.
Power Sector As of March, 2011, the accumulated losses of the State power distribution   companies are estimated to be alone Rs.1.90 lac crore which, by now,  would have crossed  Rs.2.0 lac crore IBN Live dated 23rd, September,  2012
Air India ( NACIL) Rs.67520.00 crores in loans & dues NDTV Profit, 8th Feb, 2012
Pantaloons ( Kishore Biyani’s ) Rs.3300.00 crore ET, 14th June 2012 . After selling a portion of its   apparel business to Aditya Birla Group. Before the sell-off , the debt of   Pantaloon was about a billion dollars
Reliance ADA Group Rs.86700.00 crore  FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
GMR Rs.33600.00 croreFY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
JSW Rs.40,200.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Jaypee Rs.45,400.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Lanco Rs.29,300.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Essar Group Rs.93,800.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Vedanta Rs.93,500.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Adani Group Rs.69500.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Videocon Rs.27,300.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
GVK Rs.21,000.00 crore F’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Fortis Healthcare Rs.6237.00 crore Business Line August 15th, 2012
King Fisher Airlines Rs.7500.00 crore The Hindu, July 2nd , 2012
Losses of top three oil marketing companies Rs.40,500.00 crore in April-May-June’2012 Forbes India , Sept 03, 2012
Airtel Rs.60,018 Till Q1, 2012 Business Line , Aug 3, 2012

The total debt level of  ten companies alone (Adani, Essar, GMR, GVK, JSW, Jaypee Group, Lanco, Reliance ADA, Vedanta and Videocon) has jumped 5 times in the past five years to Rs 5,39,500 crore  ( Indian Express , September 06, 2012 )

Business Line dated August 26, 2012: Credit Suisse said that the aggregate debt of the ten groups accounts for about 13 per cent of total bank loans and a whopping 98 per cent of the entire banking system net worth.

“Therefore, surprisingly now in terms of concentration risk, Indian banks rank higher than most of their Asian and BRIC counterparts,” it added.

The report said a strong loan growth of Indian banking system in past five years is increasingly being driven by a select few corporate groups.

“Given the high leverage, poor profitability and pressure from lenders, most of these debt heavy groups have initiated plans to divest some of their assets. However, given that most domestic infrastructure developers are already over-geared, demand for these assets may be limited,” Credit Suisse said.

Each of these groups alone account for 1-2 per cent of total banking system loans, the report said, while noting that all banks appear to have high exposure to the same few groups.

“With the economic slowdown and a downturn in these sectors, multiple assets of each group appear stressed and financials of these groups are stretched,” the report said.

Bank’s exposure to real estate sector ( ET dated 22nd August , 2012)

Bank Exposure to real estate FY 2011-12 ( Rs. Crore )
State Bank of India 144668.38
ICICI Bank 81421.73
Axis Bank 52730.39
Punjab National Bank 48474.59
IDBI Bank 36784.47
Bank of Baroda 22157.40
StanChart 26027.78
HDFC Bank 25020.26
Total exposure Rs. 437285.00 Crore

Despite an exposure / investment of about Rs.4.37 lac crore from banks  ,still five lac houses remain unsold ( ET, 22/ 08/2012 & TOI dated 18/ 09/ 2012. ) . So land became costly as the builders brought them with loans , houses became expensive due to builder cartels and now that houses are not getting sold , all are a part of the downturn ……..no solution is in sight except for NPA’s and its cascading affect later .

Clearly, Indian economic story lacks ‘depth’ but has been built on ‘debt’ and this is a painful bubble waiting to burst …. So a common man must have enough savings to last a few years if without a job  !

July 26, 2012 in TOI, it was reported that at least eight cases of FDI in some obscure real estate companies – each worth more than USD 100 Million – from Singapore have come under scanner , with Income tax Overseas unit (ITOU) having investigated them for alleged round tripping . Suspicion was raised when authorities detected huge FDI inflows into some little known real estate firms in India in the form of equity participation . A senior finance ministry official said they suspect these real estate firms to be front entities of some corporate houses and their black money has been routed through Singapore to acquire real estate in the country . All these FDIs coming from Singapore pertain to 2011. India received Rs.1.74 Lac crore worth of FDIs in 2011-12, of which Singapore contributed third highest at Rs.24,700.00 , after Mauritius ( Rs. 46,700.00 crore ) and the U.K ( Rs. 45,000.00 Crore).  So , now we can understand why an Indian’s politician’s family have a flat in Singapore and why Indian Government along with a few ‘parties with vested interests’ are pushing  for FDI ! Does it also not answer the question why Government opened the real estate sector to FDI in 2005 ? So that money stashed abroad can be brought back in real estate sector, and further money could be made by investing in and increasing the prices by buying land !  Does Lavasa ring a bell in your ear !

In absolute terms, bank’s bad assets have doubled in three years between 2009 and 2012  – from Rs. 68216 crore to Rs.1.37 Lac crore ( Mint 21st August , 2012).  Bad assets in coal, iron and steel , mining , construction , textiles and aviation sector have been on the rise . Bankers see stress in telecom and power sector, too.  The biggest beneficiaries of loan restructurings are large industrial houses in the manufacturing sector – 8.24 % of loans given to industries have been recast. In the services sector , the comparable figure is 3.99 % , and in agriculture loans , 1.45 %.  It is clear that the small borrowers don’t get relief  from loan servicing but the large industrial houses have gotton one ( Mint , 21, August ,2012. ). According to the same article , public sector banks have 90 % of the restructured assets , and this in my view clearly states one fact – a strong political – bureaucratic and business houses nexus to make loans and buy private jets and show companies in losses to the investors !  What right do the business houses have to question the Government on profligacy and spending when these business houses have huge debts but have their CEO’s / promoters taking home 10’s of crore in salaries plus stakes in companies and still flying private jets on borrowed money ! We know of the large business house where the debts are more than revenue but the flamboyant chairman / promoter flies on private jets ! Such company’s ( any company that has over Rs. 50 crore external debt ), boards must be restructured by the MCA (Ministry of Corporate Affairs)  and independent directors with fixed term and remuneration should be appointed by the Government , so that the loans and shareholders money is not misappropriated by such promoters in the name of expenses and privileges  !

Three more developments to be noted to give you a sense of state of affairs in the Indian economy :

Remarks
India S&P rating is BBB (Minus) . Outlook  – NegativeFitch rating is BBB (Minus ). Outlook – Negative  ( TOI, 26th June, 2012 ).
Bharti Airtel Downgraded by Goldman Sachs and other banks. ET .  10th , August , 2012
Retail Sector Fitch has downgraded the ratings to negative

Agriculture / Food crises : The US is facing a severe drought , and India has witnessed a bad spell of monsoon this year with erratic and unpredictably low rainfall . When India imports pulses and oilseeds , & the prices of these commodities is set to rise. Stock piles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents , raising the food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near record $ 1.24 trillion . Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soya beans and rice will drop 1.8% to a four year low before harvests in 2013, the US department of Agriculture ( USDA) estimates . Crops in the US, the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops . Wheat production in Russia , the fourth largest exporter , will fall 20 % this year , and in Australia , output will decline 19 % and, God forbid, another year of bad spell of rain in India will spell disaster for this country . This situation warrants an emergency action ! On 9th August , 2012 on page 7 of ET, I read an appeal to the GOI by All India Starch Manufacturer’s Association regarding the crises due to non-availability of maize in the domestic market.  Even if starch manufacturers were ready to buy maize at higher prices, it was not available and adding to it was the monsoon failure   !  We are all awaiting a miracle to happen with Wal-Mart et al. But the reality is that these players have not much to contribute. We must not forget that , the supply chain structures in these companies are leaner and they work on shortest inventory, so clearly , these people will not do much for supply chain management . Also, the biggest contribution is stated to be creation of 10 million jobs in India . I wish to ask that these companies have a ROI ( Return on investment ) for each employee and so , clearly , we must see what is the cost that we are going to pay to these MNC chains for them creating 10 million jobs & the Government must come out with a white paper on this ? After all , Wal-Mart is not here in India for charity !  For sure , it would mean we paid will pay them dearly for doing what we could have done 100 times cheaper ! All FDI investments to me appear to be taking the ‘economy in debt’ to ‘sell off’ ( divestment )… We are back to what East India Company did to India but this time , it is not one company, but multiple East India Companies !

Also , a time to look at the sectorial composition of GDP 1950-51 – 2011-12 from CSO data

Agriculture Industry Services
1950-51 53.1 % 16.6 % 30.3 %
2011-12 13.9 % 27 % 59 %

In 1950, India had a population of 350 million and now it is 1210 million. During independence,  the population dependent on agriculture was 72% and now it is  54 %. But except Madhya Pradesh, where agricultural growth has increased to dramatically  , not much is visible in other states .

Infrastructure – Construction firms sector ( Mint , September 11, 2012): for a set of 87 firms with a significant presence in infrastructure , sourced from Capitaline database , these numbers show an increasing difficulty to service debts

For these firms , the interest coverage ratio (ICR), for fiscal 2012, plunged  1.9 times , the lowest in at least five years. In other words , for every Rs. 100 of interest payments, the firms earnings before interest and tax ( EBIT ) stood at Rs.1.90 . The comparable number for 2007 was almost five.

In the fiscal 2012, at least 17 firms did not earn enough to pay the interest ! The list includes some of the bigger and better known firms such as Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd, Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd and GMR Infrastructure Ltd. This might give us a sense of where India is headed . First we oversold the India story, and now we are gonna pay heavily for it ….. !

Emerging Economy – really ? Let’s have a look at the following figures ;

  • According to the NSSO survey( July 2011 – June 2012 ), 10 % of India lives on less than Rs.17 a day . As per the survey , half of the population in rural India was living on a per day expenditure of Rs. 34.33 , and this is after two decades of reforms in India !
  • About 8.3 % of the population is unemployed
  • 54 % of Indian families live in houses that don’t have concrete or brick roof ( Census, 2011 )
  • 47 % of the total households live in houses with mud floors ( Census , 2011 )
  • More than 800 Mn don’t have toilets at home
  • Millions of tonnes of grains are stored in the open as we have no place to store !
  • Tata shut production of passenger vehicles for two days to avoid inventory pile up due to bad economic situation
  • 1/3rd of rural Indians and 1/5th of urban Indians forego treatment due to lack of money
  • 47 % of rural Indians and 31% of urban Indians finance treatment by loans or sale of assets
  • One child dies every 16 seconds due to malnutrition , diarrhoea or pneumonia
  • All major currencies have appreciated against dollar but rupee has weakened . Even Singapore dollar is up by about 50 % compared to rupee last year

GDP & Growth without fundamentals & eventual Collapse :  This is the India’s growth story’s fate . Let me give you two glaring examples and rest you can relate for your conclude;

I have travelled to the draught prone areas, and heartland of farmer’s suicides i.e. Vidharbha region of Maharashtra .  Lanco is setting up a power plant in Wardha and has purchased land for as high as Rs. 25 lac per hectare ( as per the farmers statement ). So  , let’s look at this example where Lanco purchased 7 acre land from a farmer for Rs.1.75 crore . A farmer who was drought and debt ridden for years becomes a millionaire overnight, and buys a SUV for himself along with a rifle , gold jewelry for his wife , builds a pucca house with the money he gets , and the money is spent soon as he did not know how to plan and how much to spend and the land is also gone to Lanco ! Also, money brought in a lot of vices ( please check the number of AIDS patients in the region ! ).   This company Lanco, runs a debt of Rs. 29300.00 crore and has gone for CDR ( Corporate debt restructuring ).  The banks that gave the loan should be ready for a NPA ( Non-performing asset )! So , the farmer , the company Lanco and the bank have become a non-performing asset ….. whereas , the farmer buying a SUV, Gold etc, would have boosted the sale of vehicles , gold, wines, apparel companies temporarily , and soared the rates & increased the GDP ! So this is growth in GDP but not a sustainable one or growth without prosperity !

Let me quote another example :  Country auctioned the airwaves (spectrum), a few years ago for which the companies paid tens of thousands of crore for airwaves. The companies took loans , passed on the cost to consumers ( Co’s were not wrong as they had to get an ROI for their investors ) and finally , like Airtel with over 200 million customers, run into a debt of about Rs. 60,018.00 crore ……….So , let me consider an alternative scenario . If companies were given spectrum for a nominal administrative fee of say Rs. 500.00 crore + 50 % revenue sharing . In that case, the companies would have invested more into infrastructure and services would have been better and much cheaper , also , the Government could have made a cool Rs.80,000.00 crore every year taking the current revenue of all telecom operators to be Rs.160,000,00 crore, with probably very little debt on telecom companies and no such scams !  Today, the telecom sector has a debt of Rs. 200,000.00 crore and government barely gets anything of the total revenue of Rs.160,000.00 crore as its revenue sharing is in lower single digits .  All have lost due to myopic policies of the Government . This is what I call GDP without prosperity ,  and this is what our entire Indian economy is passing through . It has no depth but debt ! What I call as lack of strong fundamentals, for which none of the parties have shown a concrete action plan . Companies have stock valuations and we are measuring our strength on the stock market indices which are not at all in relation to our ground realities ,  and only 2 % people in our country dabble in stock markets whereas 98 % suffer the hallucinations of this economic growth and GDP which is backed by loans , subsidies and political doll outs and have become a drain on our economy  & our economy is becoming a bottomless pit ! Here I will not fail to quote  the maiden address of our former finance minister and current President of India on 15th August , 2012  ‘It is indeed a wake-up call to Indian polity that even 65 years after independence and 74 years after Bose’s observation ( Subhash Chandra Bose in 1938 had flagged at the 51st session of Indian National Congress at Haripura that country’s primary challenges were poverty , illiteracy and hunger ) , the number of poor in the country today outstrip the population of the country in 1947’

All the sovereign wealth should be leased on 50-50 % revenue sharing between the Government & the private sector companies , and never be auctioned ! There is no other sustainable model for our meeting the financing needs and auctions only give a one-time income ! This must be made a policy so that every year , Government can make decent money and invest in the infrastructure,  growth and give good governance to all Indians

Indian population a mere statistics  ? Let us take the example of the recently concluded London Olympics . China with a larger population came 2nd with 38 gold , 27 silver and 23 bronze medals and India came on 55th position amongst 79 nations with zero gold , 2 silver and 4 bronze medals ….. this is what our leaders have led us to ! With committed leadership we must have made it the top by now …..

Let us do a rough sum of Indian economy which has a GDP of approximately Rs. 100 lac crore and we still borrow about Rs. 5.2 lac crore every year, and we already have  debts of about Rs. 45 lac crore . India’s  42 % of the net annual tax revenues of Rs.7.71 lac crore goes in servicing its debt ( Rs.3.20 lac crore ). Another 25 % goes in subsidies ( Rs.1.90 lac crore ) – an annual amount that would actually be Rs.78000.00 crore higher if off-balance sheet fuel subsidies to oil marketing companies were included.  The fiscal deficit of Rs.5.19 lac crore – 5.9 % of nominal GDP – is 67 % of the net central tax revenue . This was detailed in TOI dated 19th August 2012. I had read somewhere that , 54 % of Indian’s income goes in interest payments on debts taken for decades , 30 % is the cost of running the inefficient Government & bureaucracy and 16 % for subsidies ……so I keep wondering , does India have any money at all to invest in infrastructure or for future !!!! ( Hope I am wrong in remembering these numbers and India does better ). If not , time to take action !

According to Apparel Promotion Export Council ( APEC) , an estimated 4.5 million jobs have been lost over the past 3.5 years . Do our policy makers know how an ordinary Indian would survive without a salary for even a week and what pains his family and relatives pass through him being a jobless !

If all of you witnessed the discount sales season, it was advanced and even extended to make up for the shortfall , and this must show the desperation from the companies to meet the numbers . Unfortunately , If corrective steps are not taken immediately , we will have more companies getting into CDR or closure and millions of jobs might be lost till 2015……worst is yet to come !

Let me quote a facts about why India gained political independence and what was the average age of leadership . Maulana Azad became the President of INC at the age of 35 , Bose became the President of INC at the age of 41 and Nehru became the  President of INC at the age of 40… So now we know  why we got political freedom and why we have not been able to get economic freedom ??? For a nation with more than 65 % of the population below 35 years , it is important to take care of the representation of youth to lead this country with fresh innovative ideas for a double digit growth and that too  grounds up. Though our policy makers tell us that we cannot grow at about 8 % , but the fact is that, in 2011 calendar year , 12 countries clocked more than 8 % growth and some of them like Ghana , Iraq , China , Argentina and Turkey are not exactly small . We have been capped by the ‘old school of policy makers’ and their thinking , who believe that they know all and what they do is right ! This has to go now ! We need leaders with a nose on the ground , good governance and a strong political will and rest will fall in place . Government must earn from the rich and middle class, and help upgrade the lower income class to middle class on a ‘mission mode’ basis by empowering them by providing them training , education, healthcare  and technology  .

Our country’s finance ministers have taken to ‘Populonomics’ ( Economics of populism ) , and not ‘economics’, and this has clearly shown the results to the common man . India is heading towards an economic disaster and short cuts like FDI are short lived solutions !

I can bet you that if a party rises above caste , religion ,reservation, dynasty ,  and parochial regional politics, it is sure to win the youth and come to power without taking to populism !

It is the time for the finance minister to move from being an ‘efficient tax collector’ to ‘passionate creator of wealth through innovation & entrepreneurship ’. India is the only country in the world at this time that  has ample opportunities for each problem to be solved and is a fertile basin for innovation ! If you were born as a human- being , you must be lucky, but if you are born as a human -being and that too, in India , you must be the luckiest on earth, and this describes our India today and what it can offer to the world !

All ministries must have wealth creation strategies  ! Just imagine that for the year 2012-13, India will have gross tax receipts of 1,077612 crores and expenditure of Rs.1490925 crore…. Even if we do the sell-offs , we still cannot pay off the Rs.45 lac crores of debts that India has ! Which assets will be left to sell for our next generation ( oh boy that’s too far , I must say in the next 10 years ) ,to sustain our economy ? I think then , our Government will call upon the US President and ask his farmers & companies to come and invest in Indian land and make it more productive , and that will be the final sell off of this once a great nation i.e India

I am not an economist, though , I have studied economics during my graduation ( but I must confess that I do not remember anything I studied during graduation J , and I am glad that I don’t remember anything J) All that I have written here is a common man’s perspective from the data and facts available in the public domain.  I have researched the state of economy well over five months to help our dear policy makers to do a better job and making the life of a common man better and not bitter !

I am leaving to US for two weeks on 14th October evening , and on my return, I will launch www.indiawewant.org ,and would welcome your suggestions and participation

With best wishes

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Economy I Healthcare I Retail I Innovation         

http://commonmansblog.com

 

Lame duck PM ? Not at all, a duck cannot fly but at least ruffles its feathers to keep afloat


Dear Dr. Singh ,

I read your statement made at the press conference today, that you are not a Lame duck PM. Well, Lame Duck is too generous a word to describe you !! A lame duck will at least ruffle its feathers , you don’t even do that !!

Let me walk you through your years as a PM. What have you done to this nation ?

Share market collapsed

Oil Prices have hit through the pocket of the common man and he is struggling to make two ends meet

You defended CWG and created a massive scam of the games

There was a wheat export scam ………….

You defended A. Raja and gave him a clean chit , and finally created scam out of telecom airwaves auctions which is so far the biggest in history

Finance minister’s office was under the influence of spies and you did nothing compromising heavily with the security of the nation

Somali pirates are operating on our border

Fiscal deficit has not been addressed

Your ministers have no understanding of the collective responsibility and your party and government speaks different language

NAC is operating as a super body and the office of the PM has been denigrated to its lowest level since independence

You blamed inflation on poor rain , then recession and finally on growth !! Do you think that the opposition and public does not know economics and politics ??

You are pushing for FDI in retail , which will create mass social unrest in the country and will be the biggest mistake for this nation , as it will endanger the livelihoods of over 12 million families directly, and more indirectly .

For inflation , your government has been giving deadlines to control it every 2-3 months , and missing it every time . The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) original inflation estimate for fiscal 2011, made in April 2010, was 5.5%. After two revisions, the latest being in March, it was raised to 8%.The annual average inflation figure for fiscal 2011 now works out to 9.43%, the highest since 1995, and it could be even higher when provisional figures of February and March are revised. You are clueless about measures to control inflation , as Chidambaram once expressed .

A government in power , if it makes statements and repeatedly fail , you are misrepresenting the facts and misleading the nation . It calls for a serious action against the government & its leadership

Now let’s talk of the biggest deal of your lifetime – Nuclear deal : Here is the truth : There is no blanket waiver from NSG.

During the more than three-year-long process to finalize the terms of the nuclear deal with the US, you kept meretriciously reassuring the nation that he would operationalize the deal only after securing a broad political consensus in support. you even pledged: “Once the process is over, I will bring it before Parliament and abide by the House.” Yet, you completely bypassed Parliament. And instead of any attempt at consensus building, the country witnessed a polarizing single-mindedness to clinch the deal at any cost.

Now, with several of your key assurances to the nation falling by the wayside, the nuclear chickens have come home to roost. The Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG’s) new ban on enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) equipment transfers fulfils one of the last remaining conditions of US’ Hyde Act, highlighting the rising costs for India of a deal whose much-trumpeted benefits are likely to remain elusive. India also has ended up without a legally binding fuel supply guarantee, despite its bitter experience over the US-built Tarapur plant. And it has secured no right to take corrective measures even if the US  again  unilaterally terminates cooperation, as did in the 1970s.

That NSG granted India a clean, unrestricted waiver in 2008 is a myth the politically besieged government created to save face in public. In truth, it had signaled to the US earlier that it could live with a conditional waiver as long as the conditions were not embarrassingly conspicuous. Indian diplomacy sought to ensure that prohibitions on nuclear testing and ENR transfers remained implicit, or else you would stand exposed at home……..So Dr. Singh , what are you going to say now?

Mr. Manmohan Singh , you have cheated the nation on every issue , and you had the audacity to say today in the press meet that Sonia Gandhi is the Super president for over 15 years ? Actually , she has been the super Prime Minister ! Sonia has brought down congress to its knees, and now this selfish lady is  gambling by sending her son , a political novice with Gandhi brand as a fake youth icon to win UP & 2014 Elections !! Sonia needs to understand India a little better .

As a Congress President, she has brought this 125 year old party to its lowest ebb. PM , you have fooled the nation that you drove the reform in 1980’s, it was actually P.V.Narasimha Rao and not you. So actually , your performance speaks for itself .

Your own General Secretary have no faith in your leadership and are so frustrated with your performance and leadership that they are proposing Rahul as PM , When he has not even managed a state , leave along managing a nation !

Your government has crushed unarmed people in cold blood and talks about checking corruption ?? These common men were just making a demand in a Gandhian style seeking action against corruption. Manmohan ji , you have even dumped the Gandhian philosophy. I would have addressed you as PM – Gen. Dyer ………….hope you remember the Jallianwallah Bagh !! You did the same on 4th June .

Your government has growth without development and job creation . You just could create 400,000 jobs every year , and the NDA government created 12 million jobs every year !! Who did better ??

Do you understand the 30 times more job creation makes for a better economy !!

Lastly, had the supreme court not intervened , the public outcry would have spread like wild-fire and transformed into a civil rebellion ? You are a totally failed Prime Minister, who has brought the nation to disgrace and let down the Indians in the global arena .

India is today perceived as a grossly corrupt nation . Thanks to your ‘I don’t know attitude – Mr. Lame Duck PM’ A common man is being let down miserably , and ashamed of the fact that an educated person like you did not make great political Leader and stooped low to please the Super PM – Sonia Gandhi !!

A Common Man

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com

Give us a Prime Minister – Manmohan Singh is a good professor but certainly not a PM material


Dear Mrs.Sonia Gandhi,

Since you are the President of Congress party , please look into this email

Over the last few years , we have tried to accept Dr.Manmohan Singh as our Prime Minister , but his performance as a congressman might be good , but he has failed completely as a Prime Minister . Congress has been blinded by Gandhi dynasty to such an extent that it has become poor in chosing the right people for the right job. May be that your and Rahul’s intellect is not upto the mark where you can choose competent people .

Over the years , congress government under your Presidency has become a government of faulty planning , false promises , blaming coalition for your failures and blame free investigations in most of the scams 

  •  This government has too many highly educated people, economists & NRI experts & advisors , but still the wisdom to understand the problems and give exact solutions is missing .
  •  Every time your Congressmen give a new date about controlling inflation , and every time they miss it . When the inflation is perpetually high , you blame coalition politics for it. So why do Indian’s pay a price for your forming the government ?Dissolve the government and go for fresh elections .
  • You are not able to judge the talent and most of your ministers are highly inefficient and corrupt , and we were hoping that Sharad Pawar would be removed so that he could focus on the ICC world cup in 2011( Which he will do anyways !!), but he seems to have hypnotized you !! He is still around !
  • Your party believes that , by revealing the names of those who stole the government money and deposited them in Swiss Banks , would pose a security risk ! So you are trying to tell India that, majority of your office bearers are Swiss account holders !! And that their getting caught would mean that the government would collapse !! Anyways , Julian Assange is on the way for dropping a few names , and I do hope that they are not from India & Congress !!
  • Industrial growth has been reduced to 2.7 % , lowest in the past 18 months . Would like to answer it why ? Rather , I must ask you if your people know at all why it happened ? 
  • People are very bullish about rural India, and every major FMCG , White good & vehicle manufacturing company is over- joyed with the growth coming from rural India in terms of the purchases being made . Let me take you through a very dangerous & disturbing development in rural India – I call it Rubble ( rural bubble ). I have been visiting rural India and talking with villagers . Here is what I want to tell you. Let’s take the example of Chavane village in Raigad. The village has changed dramatically in the past 3 years. It is great to see concrete (Pucca )houses with two wheelers parked in front of the houses. As you dig deeper , the facts reveal that people sold their land to MHADA for Rs.30,000.00 per acre for SEZ, and with sudden flow of funds, the thatched roof houses got converted into Concrete (Pucca ) houses, and two wheelers were also purchased along with some jewellery . Villagers had for the first time seen so much money, so instant money that came by selling land was used to make aspirational purchases , and it is over now , lands are gone as well !! What will the farmer do ? What will the farm labourers do ? How will they earn their living ? Let’s take another village 80 Kms from Nagpur , where Lanco plant is being built . Villagers have sold land for the rates as high as Rs. 25 lac per hectare . In India , average size of the land holding would be around 5-7 acres. Selling the entire land would fetch Indian farmers between Rs. 1.25 lac to 1.75 crore depending upon the size of the holding and the rate paid by the acquirer. On these lands , manufacturing plants would come up. We would never see greenery again. And farmers and their children who do not have jobs and land to do farming will be the next anti social elements or naxalites !! With land not available for agriculture , inflation would be higher than what it is today . Today farming is seen as a disdainful activity , and people want to do a job of Rs. 4000 but do not want to work in farming . Your congress government has kicked the ass of 100’s of millions of farmers over the past 60 years , and we are on a temporaray rural growth that I call as a rural bubble – Rubble !! India is headed for a major crises , & all because of the faulty policies of successive congress governments focused just on building billionaires , industries and encouraging FDI !! Get retail FDI in India , and see how the 12 million kirana stores and their families will starve to death . I have had discussions with the Parliamentary Committee of Commerce , Chairman in 2009 , Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi , and have given him in detail the reasons why we need to avoid FDI for the next 5 years at least !!
  • For price rise , last year ,Manmohan ji said that it was due to poor rains , in 2010 we had good rains and good crop , so why the price rise ? Kindly explain 
  • I was in Nagpur on 17th / 18th , and I read in one of the news papers about the fact stated by none other than Mr.Subramanian Swamy that, your bank balance was about Rs.10 crore some twenty years back , and now it is Rs.80,000.00 crore !! I think that this shows that inflation is very high at 10, Janpath . Please clarify if you actually made 60 % money in the 2G scam or this money came from abroad ? You are answerable 
  • Ironically , in the current times , we have a strong opposition but a weak ruling party . How can this government run ? If BJP comes down on its demand for JPC in budget session, Indian public will assume that it ‘settled’ the matter with congress and will never let them win again the seats that they are looking for, and if they keep their agitation on like the winter session , your government will have to go , and India will see a sign of relief !! 
  • Madam, congress might be your personal fiefdom , but not this country . You have created multiple power centers more powerful than the PM , like Rahul , NAC etc….You are the worst Congress President in the history of this country . But usual , we have a saying ‘Andhon main Kane Raja’ So you are the right person for the congress, which does not have any talent left !!
  • We have an outdated finance minister , unfit Agriculture minister , Hyper environment minister and an ineffective Person on the seat of the PM. All along, I have heard that we need 100 good people or 1000 good bureaucrats etc. But the fact is that , we just need one right person : at the seat of Prime Minister . One right person will change the future of this nation , and Manmohan certainly is a disaster at the cost of people . At this time , we cannot afford to have a lame duck as a Prime Minister of this youthful nation . Please give us a Prime Minister , we do not need a professor !! 
  • A suggestion for controlling food inflation : Please ask the government to start a daily free ( even if you charge the farmers for this service,  it is fine ) truck service from the remote villages to cities , where only farmers can come directly to the market and sell their products, rather than selling through agents , mandis or APMC . This will ensure that the person who adds maximum value and takes maximum risk for growing the produce ( farmer ) should also get the maximum profit . The profit at every point of sale post the harvestor ( farmer) should not cross 15 % , and this will bring down the prices to reasonable levels permanently . I read Subbarao stating that the government is desperate to control inflation and will raise the base rate , I heard Chidambram that government is clueless about the tools to control inflation , Sharad said that he cannot control what the farmers want to grow and so he cannot control food inflation . All these stupid statements come because you have bookish professors and so-called highly placed intellectuals and NRI & outdated advisors , who have no connection to ground reality . I do not understand how will raising the rates decrease inflation ? You have been doing this for the last two years and the result has been same – inflation has only increased . Do we need such economists who do not have answers to the common man’s problem ?
  • Do you never apply your brains about this fact that, the prices of the grains and vegetables are sky-high , still the farmers are committing suicides ? Does this not help you understand the problem and get an answer ? You all must be high level fools then !! 
  • In addition to high prices of food stuffs, by increasing the price of petrol again you have signaled the common man that ‘do not eat , do not go to work’

 Nitin Gadkari ji , please take up these matters with utmost seriousness , as congress is forcing the poor people to take to suicides by failing to control prices . If BJP does not take the matter seriously , the people of India will feel betrayed. Congress is fast becoming a failed party under you Sonia Gandhi ! Please either give us a PM or you and PM can go now ….. do not let this great country go to dogs !! This email is marked to Sharad, your dear son , FM , HM etc. to do some soul-searching and step down

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com

Let not inefficiency , inflation and corruption get into 2011


Dear Mr. Singh ,

Last year was the worst year of the decade, and perhaps after independence due to your weak leadership as Prime Minister.

I read today in the newspapers that, the food inflation is in double digits , i feel it is not just double digits , but a double blow for the poor or medium class fixed earners, whose salary does not increase with inflation . Think about daily wage earners that earn 40-60 Rs a day and manage their family of four ( two children and parents , though we know that poor people have more than  two children !!) ? Do you not feel the guilt , that you have caused irreparable damage to the nation, and its people both economically , and its image in the eyes of the world ? Today we are called a scam friendly corrupt nation – a nation of scamsters!!

People have got carried away with your degrees, but seeing your miserable performance , i have realised the difference between being educated , being knowledgeable and being wise . You might be educated , but you are definitely not knowledgeable and not at all wise ! A Prime Minister is expected to be Wise and pro-active on important issues . You have built your good image , but ruined the nation’s image !

You and Pranab are fooling the people of this nation by showing 8-9 % GDP growth and a higher forecast . Reality is before us, it is difficult to survive for a common man in today’s time when one cannot get anything done without paying money , when one cannot live within his salary seeing the high price of daily food intake . A big Shame on you both and Sonia !!  With such revolting conditions , i am sure you are working for pushing people to take to Naxalism and crime !!

Two days back i was talking to Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi  and discussing the current developments , and i told him that, Dr.Joshi you could have proved to be a better PM ! Incidentally , there is only one Dr. in Congress and in BJP. In Congress ,It is yourself ,  and Dr.Joshi is the Dr. of BJP. I have had a chance to work with him on several issues , and have seen his grasp of real issues facing the nation,  and no wonder , even you have been high in praise for his abilities as PAC , Chairman, besides, other colleagues in congress . I am sure that he would have proved to be a much better Prime Minister . I cannot comment on others , as i do not know other leaders much .

My humble request Manmohan ji, give Indians a chance to celebrate the new year , Please resign and go ……………we do not want more corruption , more inflation and more GDP !!

We would happily settle for no corruption , low inflation or no inflation and a moderate GDP .

Go now Sir , take rest .Let’s celebrate New Year with a new Hope

Hope this does not fall on deaf ears

Wish you a great year ahead

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : Office@rajendragupta.in

www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com