Tagged: Narendra Modi

We are ignoring the signals , and this could be dangerous


On October 11, 2012, i wrote the blog ‘From Emerging to a Submerging Economy’ https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/

I read the story in the Economic Times today, titled ‘Feast of Burden’ ( Page 10, ET dated August 3-9, 2014). It is almost two years since i wrote my blog and this story on corporate debt. Things are still the same , rather have gone worse . For example ,

The cumulative debt of;

  • Tata Group is about Rs. 2.00 lac Crore
  • Reliance ADA Group is about Rs. 83,000 Crore
  • Jaypee Group is about Rs.66,000 Crore
  • Bharti Group is about Rs.60,541 Crore
  • GMR Group is about Rs.37,788 Crore
  • Lanco Group is about 34, 876 Crore
  • HCC is about Rs. 11,150 Crore

I am not mentioning the rest of the groups like ESSAR etc…. Small and mid-size companies would further make the situation scary .

It is time that the Government asked all these companies to come out with a clear statement of how they are going to service these debts, to ensure that these companies do not end up creating a ‘cloud burst’ for the Indian middle class and disturb the economic prospects of this developing country

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

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BJP : The Reform Within


BJP : The Reform Within

 

The first reform that the BJP has to undertake is reform within: the way its leaders conduct themselves within the party, in the government and with the public. Leaders would do well to remember that power flows through you and not from you. Politicians tend to forget that the public has chosen them to serve as servants and not as masters, and that the power that flows through them can start flowing through any other leader. See how many cabinet ministers lost, in the 2014 elections.

A minister’s personal assistant complained: “people come from the minister’s constituency, congratulating him for a scheme that is a total failure and no one dares to tell him the truth. He takes the praise at face value and continues to expand the scheme, unaware of the ground level talk’. Be careful of praise and encourage people around you to speak the truth, even if it is unpleasant.

Seek Out Honest Feedback

Ideally, the party should set up an internal team that critically examines the government’s functioning and gives feedback to the party high command before it is too late. Another big problem with the senior party leaders is that they seem to ‘know everything’ and are not interested to listen, but like lecturing.

If this does not change, the leaders don’t learn anything new, but only share what they know. So there is no value addition to their knowledge. Leaders must encourage others to speak and listen carefully. But the public must also realise the importance of the leader’s time and be brief and to the point and speak the truth without caring for the consequences.

Servants, not Masters

All senior leaders and ministers must make it a point to visit the field regularly and that too, unannounced, and spend at least 30 percent of their work time in the field. If the visits are pre-announced, the areas and projects are decked up for the ‘show’ and the reality remains hidden. Surprise visits will reveal the real situation on ground, so that corrective actions can be taken before the media starts the post mortem, and the public sentiment turns to anti-incumbency.

Read as much as you can. A few leaders who have reached the top are voracious readers. ‘A good reader is a good leader’. Leaders must dedicate time daily to reading newspapers and relevant literature and books, to keep themselves updated on what’s going on around them A new breed of leaders are convinced of their own genius and don’t feel the need to consult anyone. In reality, it would be great to bounce new ideas off a senior leader or colleague, to take advantage of their wisdom and experience.

Politicians must be clear on what they want to accomplish in the short, medium and long term and must state their working principles for the team (office staff and bureaucrats), and give them enough freedom to take decisions within the defined framework and evaluate them for their deliverables. It would be a great idea to take the power of saying ‘no’ from the bureaucrats. For saying ‘no’, they should have to take approvals from the immediate senior. This one change will transform the way the government works.

Intent & Will before Vision

Also, it has been seen that the personal staff of ministers tend to be more ‘powerful’ than the ministers, and most of the time, lack basic courtesy while dealing with the public. This must be tackled on priority, as wrong handling can have a cascading negative impact. All politicians know that it is not possible to meet the expectations of every citizen in their constituency, but it is certainly possible to talk to them respectfully, and explain the situation directly, or through staff, if some particular thing cannot be done.

And, don’t work only in the fifth, pre-poll year, but work for all the five years that you have been voted for. A lot of leaders show off their clout by quoting internal discussions of the government or the party in the media. This negates decades of good work and weakens the organisation, and must be avoided at all costs.

People said that Narendra Modi has a vision, but they forget that, before the vision, you need to have the ‘intent’ and the ‘will’, and the vision shapes up automatically. Once you have the vision, you need to implement it, and there is no substitute for hard work. With Modi running the government, leaders will do well to learn and unlearn quickly, so that they deliver on the sky-high expectations set after the 2014 results Well, all the above will naturally happen if you have genuine intent to work for the people.

A lot many people come into politics for power and position but forget that politics is only a platform for serving people The Indian public knows what to do and when! Results of 2009 and 2014 clear any misgivings that our leaders have about the maturity of our voters and the strength of the democratic system and so, don’t forget that ‘prepare and prevent is better than repair and repent’

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

This article appeared in The Economic Times on 26th May , 2014 in the edit page

 

One chance to change our fate and of our Nation – Vote for India , vote for BJP


Please read this before you think about whom to vote for ?  We cannot afford to experiment with new parties or give another chance to a privately owned political party… We need a party with a proven track record of delivering results , and that is BJP ….

State of the Nation: – A Decade of Decay

Decade under the UPA I & II can rightly be summed in one line, the ‘Decade of Decay’, in which India had a free fall on all fronts – be it economic failure, diplomatic humiliation, failure of foreign policy, intrusions across borders, corruption & scams or crimes against women. There has been gross misuse & total denigration of government & constitutional institutions and this has eroded the office of the Prime Minister. The Government dithered by each passing day, casting gloom and doom on the country that was once under the NDA regime called the ‘Emerging Super Power’. In 2004, NDA left the Government with 8.1 % growth. The UPA could not even maintain that growth and mismanaged the country so badly, that the growth rate declined to 4.8 %, with the nation in a deep mess. We have lost a wonderful opportunity and have pushed the nation 20 years behind and rendered millions jobless and hopeless.

Economy mismanaged

CAD now exceeds even 1990-91 Level – India is revisiting the crisis of 1991.

Between 2001-02 and 2003-04, the nation had a pleasant experience on balance of payments, turning surplus for continuously three years, which was unprecedented after the post-independence period. All the gains of the NDA period have been frittered away in saving the dynasty rule through various election-financing schemes

Debt Trap – A result of Wrong policies

Total public debt on India is Rs 4,606,350 crore, and the debt per capita stands at about Rs 38,000

Rising NPAs – things are going from bad to worse

Economy is slowing down and the banks are under strain. Defaults have led to NPAs almost doubling from the 2009 levels. Rs. 2.43 lac Crore of estimated NPAs are in 40 listed banks as on December 2013. Rs.4.0 Lac crore is the amount of restructured loan under the CDR scheme.

Rupee Downfall

The Indian rupee, which was at par with the American currency at the time of Independence in 1947, has touched its historic record low of below 68.80 against the dollar under the UPA

Jobs – Shrinking job market

The employment generation actually decreased sharply between 2004-05 and 2009-10, especially when compared to the earlier five-year period.

In the five years from 1999-2000 – 2004-05, NDA created 60.7 million new jobs against the 2.76 million new jobs between the years 2004-05 to 2009-10 under the UPA. Now, India is going to lose more jobs in the coming years due to the wrong policies of the UPA

Poverty & illiteracy is the result of Congress misrule

416 million poor, 316 million illiterate & more than 600 million population without toilets sums up the outcome of the economic policies followed by Congress

India continues to be one of the hungriest nations in the world & accounts for 42 per cent of the world’s underweight children.

India’s Human Development Index rank has a negative trend for the time period 2007-12, which indicates deterioration in the indicators determining the Human Development Index.

Inflation: Price rise during the UPA years – Contrary to the Global Phenomenon

Whenever it came to low rate of growth, UPA justified that it was due to global economic situation, but the same cannot be justified for the increasing food prices in India. In November 2013, the Food Prices Index fell by 4.4 % globally, while in India, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was estimated to be close to 20 % in November 2013.

 

On one side, we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low, and on the other side, UPA is groping in the dark for the past decade to find a solution for inflation and deficits. Country’s growth that reached near double-digit due to initiatives of the NDA government has come down to 4.5 %, that too remained because monsoons played a face saver and there was a high growth in agriculture ( 4 %). Year 2013 had an unusually good monsoon favoring a good agricultural yield, but had the monsoons been average, the growth would have been below 3 %. It was the agriculture & not the Government Policies that saved the nation from a collapse!

The State of the Education Sector in India declining

Health and education are defining sectors for equitable human development and sustainable and inclusive economic growth of India.

Despite levying a tax to fund education and enacting a law to ensure access to education for all children between the ages of 6 and 14, the government hasn’t succeeded in improving the learning outcomes in India’s schools, because the UPA thoroughly bungled the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan initiated by the NDA.The quality of learning has either shown no improvement or actually worsened in the nine years of the UPA’s rule

Recognized as a critical element for India’s growth, the UPA government had claimed way back in its first term, that 6% of the GDP would be spent on education, which is a bare minimum for an emerging economy like ours. Nonetheless, the sector still stands at around 4% of the GDP today.

 

It is unfortunate, but the UPA government and the Ministry of Human Resource Development have surely missed the focus on Education and Employment, and the Research & Development expenditure has stagnated under the UPA.

Health care – India’s ticking time bomb

Healthcare is still inaccessible and unaffordable to the masses. Out of pocket spending is still high at 78 %. Goals set forth under NRHM have not been achieved and the scheme has floundered. UPA has failed to deliver health, or healthcare, despite a huge spending.

Agriculture Sector – Farmers and Farming Neglected

Due to lack of investment (both public & private) in agriculture, the share of agriculture in GDP has dropped to less than 15%. UPA has failed to increase investment, productivity & profitability of agriculture, leading to farmer suicides, migration from agriculture and widening the urban-rural divide. The Nation is left at the mercy of rain Gods!

India’s Foreign Policy – Alien to India’s strategic interests!

The past decade has witnessed, a directionless Indian Foreign Policy under the UPA I & II; of alienation and antagonism in relations with South Asian neighbours, & of international humiliation. India has been miserably failing in accomplishing its national interest due to poor diplomacy

Global Competitiveness

India has slipped to 60th position in terms of its competitiveness globally. This is India’s lowest ever rank and also 31 place below its peer emerging market -China. With regards to GCI, India is placed at 60th position out of 148 economies

India is ranked 134th position out of 189 countries in terms of ease of doing business

Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2012 ranked India at 94, out of 176 nations

In the global happiness-ranking list, India stands at rank 111-much after Pakistan (rank: 81) and Bangladesh (108).

Downgrade to downfall !

International rating agencies have been warning that India’s Baa3 rating is in danger of a downgrade, which has vitiated the investment climate. Any further downgrade would club the economy with junk-grade countries.

The fiscal profligacy of the UPA government has put India into a tight corner when it comes to repayment of borrowings. Government bonds worth Rs 1567 billion (Rs 1,56,700 crore) is coming up for redemption in fiscal year 2014-15 & In the fiscal years 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19, government bonds worth Rs 114600 crore, Rs 231200 crore, Rs 256700 crore and Rs 242400 crore are coming up for redemption, respectively.

 

Where is India headed ?

Erosion of moral and societal values and governance

Crimes & corruption are on the rise across the nation and scams have impacted all the sectors like Panchayat, Housing, Education, Health, Agriculture, Mining, telecom etc. No one is untouched from corruption in the UPA regime

 

Corruption has become a part of the daily life. There is hardly any day when we do not come across the cases of flourishing corrupt practices getting exposed in one form or another. The policies of UPA have resulted in fast degradation of moral, societal,and cultural values

Use your right to vote to seek a change for a better India

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Health Care will be transformed when BJP comes to Power


Health Services – increase the Access, improve the quality, lower the Cost

India needs a holistic care system that is universally accessible, affordable and effective and drastically reduces the out of pocket spending on health. NRHM has failed to meet the objectives and will be radically reformed. BJP accords high priority to health sector, which is crucial for securing the economy.

The overarching goal of healthcare would be to provide, ‘Health Assurance to all Indians and to reduce the out of pocket spending on health care’, with the help of state governments.

The current situation calls for radical reforms in the healthcare system with regards to national healthcare programs and delivery, medical education and training and financing of healthcare. Our government would focus on the following reforms in healthcare:

  • the last healthcare policy dates back to 2002. India now needs a comprehensive healthcare policy to address the complex healthcare challenges, keeping in view the developments in the healthcare sector and the changing demographics. BJP will initiate the  New Health Policy.
  • initiate the ‘National Health Assurance Mission’, with a clear mandate to provide universal healthcare that is not only accessible and affordable, but also effective, and reduces the OOP spending for the common man.
  • Education and Training – Will review the role of various professional regulatory bodies in healthcare and consider setting up an overarching lean body for healthcare. High priority will be given to address the shortfall of healthcare professionals.
  • Modernize Government hospitals, upgrading infrastructure and latest technologies.
  • Reorganize Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in order to converge various departments dealing in healthcare, food and nutrition and pharmaceuticals, for effective delivery of healthcare services.
  • Increase the number of medical and para-medical colleges to make India self sufficient in human resources, and set up an AIIMS like institute in every state.
  • Yoga and Ayurveda are the gifts of ancient Indian civilization to humanity and we will increase the public investment to promote Yoga and AYUSH. We will start integrated courses for Indian System of Medicine (ISM) and modern science and Ayurgenomics. We will set up institutions and launch a vigorous program to standardize and validate the Ayurvedic medicine.
  • Move to pre-emptive care model where the focus and thrust will be on child health and prevention.
  • School health program would be a major focus area, and health and hygiene will be made a part of the school curriculum.
  • Focus on Rural Health care delivery.
  • Senior Citizens healthcare would be a special focus area.
  • Give high priority to chronic diseases, and will invest in research and development of solutions for chronic diseases like obesity, diabetes, cancer, CVD etc.
  • Occupational health programs will be pursued aggressively.
  • Utilize the ubiquitous platform of mobile phones for healthcare delivery and set up the “National eHealth Authority” to leverage telemedicine and mobile healthcare for expanding reach and coverage and to define the standards and legal framework for technology driven care.
  • Universalization of emergency medical services-108.
  • Re-orientation of herbal plants board to encourage farming of herbal plants.
  • Population stabilization would be a major thrust area and would be pursued as a mission mode program.
  • Programme for Women Healthcare with emphasis on rural, SC, ST and OBC in a mission mode.
  • Mission mode project to eradicate malnutrition.
  • Launch National Mosquito Control mission.

Poor Hygiene and Sanitation have a far reaching, cascading impact. We will ensure a “Swachh Bharat” by Gandhi ji’s 150th birth anniversary in 2019, taking it up in mission mode by converging resources and building around jan bhagidari:

  • Create an open defecation free India by awareness campaign and enabling people to build toilets in their home as well as in schools and public places.
  • Set up modern, scientific sewage and waste management systems.
  • We will introduce Sanitation Ratings measuring and ranking our cities and towns on ‘sanitation’; and rewarding the best performers.
  • Make potable drinking water available to all thus reducing water–borne diseases, which will automatically translate into Diarrhoea–free India.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Author of BJP Election Manifesto along with Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi

Can you guess the state of India’s economy for 2014 -16 ? Not tough


On 4th June , 2013 , I analysed the data and concluded that the Indian economy would grow below 4 % when most of our economists were speaking of returning to 6-7 % growth in the second half 2013 . https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/

Leading global organizations like IMF / OECD have given similar predictions about Indian economy after 4-5 months of my analysis about the Indian economy

The recent reports of IMF on October 9, 2013 cut the India’s growth to 3.8 % in 2013 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-09/news/42864491_1_world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-global-growth

Also , OECD stated on 19th November, 2013 that India would grow at 3.4 % http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/oecd-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-emerging-market-slowdown.html

On one side , we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low ( Mint , 16th November, 2013) and UPA is still groping in the dark to figure out how to handle inflation , deficits and govern this nation 

To me , the fate of truck operators & tractors companies and not the sensex, is directly related to the fate of the common man & is the right indicator of the nation’s economic health. Trucks are the means for transporting goods and thereby, the correct parameter to judge the movement of economy. Truck operators are exiting truck business ( Mint, 26th November, 2013)., which is an indicator of the negative economic indicators 

Sales of trucks dropped 29% in the first seven months of 2013, and truck sales have been declining for 20 months in a row according to SIAM and the existing truck operators are operating at 40 % of their capacity. Mint dated 26th Nov.

In my view,  this mirrors with the growth slowdown of the economy that was once growing more than 8 % and is now growing around 4.5 % ….. High octane speeches of returning to double-digit growth are fine , but when our markets and rupee move with the news of US quantitative easing , it is good enough of the proof, that the intrinsic strength of this country’s economy is weak and of a lesser weightage than just the good news of foreign markets ( tens of thousands miles away )  or the US quantitative easing !  

Small truck operators which constitute 75 % of the market are worst hit ( Mint , 26th Nov), and this must be good enough to sum up where have these Oxford, World Bank, IMF famed economists taken this country to ? May be, good rains can shower some temporary good news , but in the short-term and middle term , India has more tears to worry for than merry for this years good rains

No wonder, S&P downgraded IDBI bank debt to junk status . (Nov 26, 2013). More banks are under strain, but I believe that they would not declare NPAs before the next financial year to avoid disclosures that could add to their and the country’s woes !