On 4th June , 2013 , I analysed the data and concluded that the Indian economy would grow below 4 % when most of our economists were speaking of returning to 6-7 % growth in the second half 2013 . https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/
Leading global organizations like IMF / OECD have given similar predictions about Indian economy after 4-5 months of my analysis about the Indian economy
The recent reports of IMF on October 9, 2013 cut the India’s growth to 3.8 % in 2013 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-09/news/42864491_1_world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-global-growth
Also , OECD stated on 19th November, 2013 that India would grow at 3.4 % http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/oecd-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-emerging-market-slowdown.html
On one side , we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low ( Mint , 16th November, 2013) and UPA is still groping in the dark to figure out how to handle inflation , deficits and govern this nation
To me , the fate of truck operators & tractors companies and not the sensex, is directly related to the fate of the common man & is the right indicator of the nation’s economic health. Trucks are the means for transporting goods and thereby, the correct parameter to judge the movement of economy. Truck operators are exiting truck business ( Mint, 26th November, 2013)., which is an indicator of the negative economic indicators
Sales of trucks dropped 29% in the first seven months of 2013, and truck sales have been declining for 20 months in a row according to SIAM and the existing truck operators are operating at 40 % of their capacity. Mint dated 26th Nov.
In my view, this mirrors with the growth slowdown of the economy that was once growing more than 8 % and is now growing around 4.5 % ….. High octane speeches of returning to double-digit growth are fine , but when our markets and rupee move with the news of US quantitative easing , it is good enough of the proof, that the intrinsic strength of this country’s economy is weak and of a lesser weightage than just the good news of foreign markets ( tens of thousands miles away ) or the US quantitative easing !
Small truck operators which constitute 75 % of the market are worst hit ( Mint , 26th Nov), and this must be good enough to sum up where have these Oxford, World Bank, IMF famed economists taken this country to ? May be, good rains can shower some temporary good news , but in the short-term and middle term , India has more tears to worry for than merry for this years good rains
No wonder, S&P downgraded IDBI bank debt to junk status . (Nov 26, 2013). More banks are under strain, but I believe that they would not declare NPAs before the next financial year to avoid disclosures that could add to their and the country’s woes !
Indian Economy Opti – ‘mystic’ about growth numbers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?
Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.
Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?
This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic
Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!
No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .
The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .