Tagged: GDP

India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy


India – from Emerging to a Submerging economy

On 22nd March 2012 , I wrote this on my blog and also sent the same to leading public figures .I had stated dwelling  in detail about how,  ‘ Have we oversold the India story’, and this was much before the bad news starting sinking in !

Link to the blog is  https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/ .

This blog clearly mentioned that we must be prepared for bad news in April – May – June Quarter , and we know that,  India was downgraded as an economy by the international rating agencies ( S&P & Fitch ) and many Indian banks also faced the brunt , many retailers are gasping for breath ….

This time , I have decided to write about the story of how Indian economy would  enter a dark phase if immediate steps are not taken ,and this note is not against anyone but for everyone who wants to see India doing well !  I have tried my best to put data for every statement ( Besides Almighty , everyone should believe in data !).

So now , it is time to peep in the story of how an emerging economy can become a submerging economy .

Let us look at the following data :

Sector – Industry / company Financials ( Loans / NPAs) Source / Remarks
Telecom Sector Rs. 2.00 Lac Crore debt TOI, 26th September , 2012.
Banking Sector NPAs Rs.1.37 Lac crore as of June’12 Mint , 7th September, 2012
Banking Sector According to RBI’s assessment , a fifth of all re-structured loans go   bad . According to RBI, as on March 31, banks had Rs.2.18 Lac worth of   restructured loans on its books Mint, 7th September, 2012
Banking Sector State-run banks  NPA crosses   Rs.1.23 Lac crore Mint , 23/ August/ 2012
Credit card outstanding Rs. 22150.00 Crore As on July/ 21 Ref. ET 14/9/12
Indian Government Total planned borrowing is Rs.5.71 Lac crore for FY 13, of which   Rs.2.0 Lac crore would be in the second half of the fiscal by Dec’12 As per Mint dated September 28, 2012
Banking Sector Report by Credit Suisse group AG points that exposure to 10 large   Industrial groups constitute 13 % of the entire banking system Mint, August 21, 2012.
Banking Sector As of 27th July, Indian banks had loans outstanding of   Rs.36,600.00 Crore to the mining and quarrying sector, and Rs.93,170.00 Crore   to the Telecom sector Mint, 12th September, 2012.
Power Sector As of March, 2011, the accumulated losses of the State power distribution   companies are estimated to be alone Rs.1.90 lac crore which, by now,  would have crossed  Rs.2.0 lac crore IBN Live dated 23rd, September,  2012
Air India ( NACIL) Rs.67520.00 crores in loans & dues NDTV Profit, 8th Feb, 2012
Pantaloons ( Kishore Biyani’s ) Rs.3300.00 crore ET, 14th June 2012 . After selling a portion of its   apparel business to Aditya Birla Group. Before the sell-off , the debt of   Pantaloon was about a billion dollars
Reliance ADA Group Rs.86700.00 crore  FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
GMR Rs.33600.00 croreFY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
JSW Rs.40,200.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Jaypee Rs.45,400.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Lanco Rs.29,300.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Essar Group Rs.93,800.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Vedanta Rs.93,500.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Adani Group Rs.69500.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Videocon Rs.27,300.00 crore FY’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
GVK Rs.21,000.00 crore F’12 Business Line August 26th, 2012.
Fortis Healthcare Rs.6237.00 crore Business Line August 15th, 2012
King Fisher Airlines Rs.7500.00 crore The Hindu, July 2nd , 2012
Losses of top three oil marketing companies Rs.40,500.00 crore in April-May-June’2012 Forbes India , Sept 03, 2012
Airtel Rs.60,018 Till Q1, 2012 Business Line , Aug 3, 2012

The total debt level of  ten companies alone (Adani, Essar, GMR, GVK, JSW, Jaypee Group, Lanco, Reliance ADA, Vedanta and Videocon) has jumped 5 times in the past five years to Rs 5,39,500 crore  ( Indian Express , September 06, 2012 )

Business Line dated August 26, 2012: Credit Suisse said that the aggregate debt of the ten groups accounts for about 13 per cent of total bank loans and a whopping 98 per cent of the entire banking system net worth.

“Therefore, surprisingly now in terms of concentration risk, Indian banks rank higher than most of their Asian and BRIC counterparts,” it added.

The report said a strong loan growth of Indian banking system in past five years is increasingly being driven by a select few corporate groups.

“Given the high leverage, poor profitability and pressure from lenders, most of these debt heavy groups have initiated plans to divest some of their assets. However, given that most domestic infrastructure developers are already over-geared, demand for these assets may be limited,” Credit Suisse said.

Each of these groups alone account for 1-2 per cent of total banking system loans, the report said, while noting that all banks appear to have high exposure to the same few groups.

“With the economic slowdown and a downturn in these sectors, multiple assets of each group appear stressed and financials of these groups are stretched,” the report said.

Bank’s exposure to real estate sector ( ET dated 22nd August , 2012)

Bank Exposure to real estate FY 2011-12 ( Rs. Crore )
State Bank of India 144668.38
ICICI Bank 81421.73
Axis Bank 52730.39
Punjab National Bank 48474.59
IDBI Bank 36784.47
Bank of Baroda 22157.40
StanChart 26027.78
HDFC Bank 25020.26
Total exposure Rs. 437285.00 Crore

Despite an exposure / investment of about Rs.4.37 lac crore from banks  ,still five lac houses remain unsold ( ET, 22/ 08/2012 & TOI dated 18/ 09/ 2012. ) . So land became costly as the builders brought them with loans , houses became expensive due to builder cartels and now that houses are not getting sold , all are a part of the downturn ……..no solution is in sight except for NPA’s and its cascading affect later .

Clearly, Indian economic story lacks ‘depth’ but has been built on ‘debt’ and this is a painful bubble waiting to burst …. So a common man must have enough savings to last a few years if without a job  !

July 26, 2012 in TOI, it was reported that at least eight cases of FDI in some obscure real estate companies – each worth more than USD 100 Million – from Singapore have come under scanner , with Income tax Overseas unit (ITOU) having investigated them for alleged round tripping . Suspicion was raised when authorities detected huge FDI inflows into some little known real estate firms in India in the form of equity participation . A senior finance ministry official said they suspect these real estate firms to be front entities of some corporate houses and their black money has been routed through Singapore to acquire real estate in the country . All these FDIs coming from Singapore pertain to 2011. India received Rs.1.74 Lac crore worth of FDIs in 2011-12, of which Singapore contributed third highest at Rs.24,700.00 , after Mauritius ( Rs. 46,700.00 crore ) and the U.K ( Rs. 45,000.00 Crore).  So , now we can understand why an Indian’s politician’s family have a flat in Singapore and why Indian Government along with a few ‘parties with vested interests’ are pushing  for FDI ! Does it also not answer the question why Government opened the real estate sector to FDI in 2005 ? So that money stashed abroad can be brought back in real estate sector, and further money could be made by investing in and increasing the prices by buying land !  Does Lavasa ring a bell in your ear !

In absolute terms, bank’s bad assets have doubled in three years between 2009 and 2012  – from Rs. 68216 crore to Rs.1.37 Lac crore ( Mint 21st August , 2012).  Bad assets in coal, iron and steel , mining , construction , textiles and aviation sector have been on the rise . Bankers see stress in telecom and power sector, too.  The biggest beneficiaries of loan restructurings are large industrial houses in the manufacturing sector – 8.24 % of loans given to industries have been recast. In the services sector , the comparable figure is 3.99 % , and in agriculture loans , 1.45 %.  It is clear that the small borrowers don’t get relief  from loan servicing but the large industrial houses have gotton one ( Mint , 21, August ,2012. ). According to the same article , public sector banks have 90 % of the restructured assets , and this in my view clearly states one fact – a strong political – bureaucratic and business houses nexus to make loans and buy private jets and show companies in losses to the investors !  What right do the business houses have to question the Government on profligacy and spending when these business houses have huge debts but have their CEO’s / promoters taking home 10’s of crore in salaries plus stakes in companies and still flying private jets on borrowed money ! We know of the large business house where the debts are more than revenue but the flamboyant chairman / promoter flies on private jets ! Such company’s ( any company that has over Rs. 50 crore external debt ), boards must be restructured by the MCA (Ministry of Corporate Affairs)  and independent directors with fixed term and remuneration should be appointed by the Government , so that the loans and shareholders money is not misappropriated by such promoters in the name of expenses and privileges  !

Three more developments to be noted to give you a sense of state of affairs in the Indian economy :

Remarks
India S&P rating is BBB (Minus) . Outlook  – NegativeFitch rating is BBB (Minus ). Outlook – Negative  ( TOI, 26th June, 2012 ).
Bharti Airtel Downgraded by Goldman Sachs and other banks. ET .  10th , August , 2012
Retail Sector Fitch has downgraded the ratings to negative

Agriculture / Food crises : The US is facing a severe drought , and India has witnessed a bad spell of monsoon this year with erratic and unpredictably low rainfall . When India imports pulses and oilseeds , & the prices of these commodities is set to rise. Stock piles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents , raising the food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near record $ 1.24 trillion . Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soya beans and rice will drop 1.8% to a four year low before harvests in 2013, the US department of Agriculture ( USDA) estimates . Crops in the US, the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops . Wheat production in Russia , the fourth largest exporter , will fall 20 % this year , and in Australia , output will decline 19 % and, God forbid, another year of bad spell of rain in India will spell disaster for this country . This situation warrants an emergency action ! On 9th August , 2012 on page 7 of ET, I read an appeal to the GOI by All India Starch Manufacturer’s Association regarding the crises due to non-availability of maize in the domestic market.  Even if starch manufacturers were ready to buy maize at higher prices, it was not available and adding to it was the monsoon failure   !  We are all awaiting a miracle to happen with Wal-Mart et al. But the reality is that these players have not much to contribute. We must not forget that , the supply chain structures in these companies are leaner and they work on shortest inventory, so clearly , these people will not do much for supply chain management . Also, the biggest contribution is stated to be creation of 10 million jobs in India . I wish to ask that these companies have a ROI ( Return on investment ) for each employee and so , clearly , we must see what is the cost that we are going to pay to these MNC chains for them creating 10 million jobs & the Government must come out with a white paper on this ? After all , Wal-Mart is not here in India for charity !  For sure , it would mean we paid will pay them dearly for doing what we could have done 100 times cheaper ! All FDI investments to me appear to be taking the ‘economy in debt’ to ‘sell off’ ( divestment )… We are back to what East India Company did to India but this time , it is not one company, but multiple East India Companies !

Also , a time to look at the sectorial composition of GDP 1950-51 – 2011-12 from CSO data

Agriculture Industry Services
1950-51 53.1 % 16.6 % 30.3 %
2011-12 13.9 % 27 % 59 %

In 1950, India had a population of 350 million and now it is 1210 million. During independence,  the population dependent on agriculture was 72% and now it is  54 %. But except Madhya Pradesh, where agricultural growth has increased to dramatically  , not much is visible in other states .

Infrastructure – Construction firms sector ( Mint , September 11, 2012): for a set of 87 firms with a significant presence in infrastructure , sourced from Capitaline database , these numbers show an increasing difficulty to service debts

For these firms , the interest coverage ratio (ICR), for fiscal 2012, plunged  1.9 times , the lowest in at least five years. In other words , for every Rs. 100 of interest payments, the firms earnings before interest and tax ( EBIT ) stood at Rs.1.90 . The comparable number for 2007 was almost five.

In the fiscal 2012, at least 17 firms did not earn enough to pay the interest ! The list includes some of the bigger and better known firms such as Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd, Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd and GMR Infrastructure Ltd. This might give us a sense of where India is headed . First we oversold the India story, and now we are gonna pay heavily for it ….. !

Emerging Economy – really ? Let’s have a look at the following figures ;

  • According to the NSSO survey( July 2011 – June 2012 ), 10 % of India lives on less than Rs.17 a day . As per the survey , half of the population in rural India was living on a per day expenditure of Rs. 34.33 , and this is after two decades of reforms in India !
  • About 8.3 % of the population is unemployed
  • 54 % of Indian families live in houses that don’t have concrete or brick roof ( Census, 2011 )
  • 47 % of the total households live in houses with mud floors ( Census , 2011 )
  • More than 800 Mn don’t have toilets at home
  • Millions of tonnes of grains are stored in the open as we have no place to store !
  • Tata shut production of passenger vehicles for two days to avoid inventory pile up due to bad economic situation
  • 1/3rd of rural Indians and 1/5th of urban Indians forego treatment due to lack of money
  • 47 % of rural Indians and 31% of urban Indians finance treatment by loans or sale of assets
  • One child dies every 16 seconds due to malnutrition , diarrhoea or pneumonia
  • All major currencies have appreciated against dollar but rupee has weakened . Even Singapore dollar is up by about 50 % compared to rupee last year

GDP & Growth without fundamentals & eventual Collapse :  This is the India’s growth story’s fate . Let me give you two glaring examples and rest you can relate for your conclude;

I have travelled to the draught prone areas, and heartland of farmer’s suicides i.e. Vidharbha region of Maharashtra .  Lanco is setting up a power plant in Wardha and has purchased land for as high as Rs. 25 lac per hectare ( as per the farmers statement ). So  , let’s look at this example where Lanco purchased 7 acre land from a farmer for Rs.1.75 crore . A farmer who was drought and debt ridden for years becomes a millionaire overnight, and buys a SUV for himself along with a rifle , gold jewelry for his wife , builds a pucca house with the money he gets , and the money is spent soon as he did not know how to plan and how much to spend and the land is also gone to Lanco ! Also, money brought in a lot of vices ( please check the number of AIDS patients in the region ! ).   This company Lanco, runs a debt of Rs. 29300.00 crore and has gone for CDR ( Corporate debt restructuring ).  The banks that gave the loan should be ready for a NPA ( Non-performing asset )! So , the farmer , the company Lanco and the bank have become a non-performing asset ….. whereas , the farmer buying a SUV, Gold etc, would have boosted the sale of vehicles , gold, wines, apparel companies temporarily , and soared the rates & increased the GDP ! So this is growth in GDP but not a sustainable one or growth without prosperity !

Let me quote another example :  Country auctioned the airwaves (spectrum), a few years ago for which the companies paid tens of thousands of crore for airwaves. The companies took loans , passed on the cost to consumers ( Co’s were not wrong as they had to get an ROI for their investors ) and finally , like Airtel with over 200 million customers, run into a debt of about Rs. 60,018.00 crore ……….So , let me consider an alternative scenario . If companies were given spectrum for a nominal administrative fee of say Rs. 500.00 crore + 50 % revenue sharing . In that case, the companies would have invested more into infrastructure and services would have been better and much cheaper , also , the Government could have made a cool Rs.80,000.00 crore every year taking the current revenue of all telecom operators to be Rs.160,000,00 crore, with probably very little debt on telecom companies and no such scams !  Today, the telecom sector has a debt of Rs. 200,000.00 crore and government barely gets anything of the total revenue of Rs.160,000.00 crore as its revenue sharing is in lower single digits .  All have lost due to myopic policies of the Government . This is what I call GDP without prosperity ,  and this is what our entire Indian economy is passing through . It has no depth but debt ! What I call as lack of strong fundamentals, for which none of the parties have shown a concrete action plan . Companies have stock valuations and we are measuring our strength on the stock market indices which are not at all in relation to our ground realities ,  and only 2 % people in our country dabble in stock markets whereas 98 % suffer the hallucinations of this economic growth and GDP which is backed by loans , subsidies and political doll outs and have become a drain on our economy  & our economy is becoming a bottomless pit ! Here I will not fail to quote  the maiden address of our former finance minister and current President of India on 15th August , 2012  ‘It is indeed a wake-up call to Indian polity that even 65 years after independence and 74 years after Bose’s observation ( Subhash Chandra Bose in 1938 had flagged at the 51st session of Indian National Congress at Haripura that country’s primary challenges were poverty , illiteracy and hunger ) , the number of poor in the country today outstrip the population of the country in 1947’

All the sovereign wealth should be leased on 50-50 % revenue sharing between the Government & the private sector companies , and never be auctioned ! There is no other sustainable model for our meeting the financing needs and auctions only give a one-time income ! This must be made a policy so that every year , Government can make decent money and invest in the infrastructure,  growth and give good governance to all Indians

Indian population a mere statistics  ? Let us take the example of the recently concluded London Olympics . China with a larger population came 2nd with 38 gold , 27 silver and 23 bronze medals and India came on 55th position amongst 79 nations with zero gold , 2 silver and 4 bronze medals ….. this is what our leaders have led us to ! With committed leadership we must have made it the top by now …..

Let us do a rough sum of Indian economy which has a GDP of approximately Rs. 100 lac crore and we still borrow about Rs. 5.2 lac crore every year, and we already have  debts of about Rs. 45 lac crore . India’s  42 % of the net annual tax revenues of Rs.7.71 lac crore goes in servicing its debt ( Rs.3.20 lac crore ). Another 25 % goes in subsidies ( Rs.1.90 lac crore ) – an annual amount that would actually be Rs.78000.00 crore higher if off-balance sheet fuel subsidies to oil marketing companies were included.  The fiscal deficit of Rs.5.19 lac crore – 5.9 % of nominal GDP – is 67 % of the net central tax revenue . This was detailed in TOI dated 19th August 2012. I had read somewhere that , 54 % of Indian’s income goes in interest payments on debts taken for decades , 30 % is the cost of running the inefficient Government & bureaucracy and 16 % for subsidies ……so I keep wondering , does India have any money at all to invest in infrastructure or for future !!!! ( Hope I am wrong in remembering these numbers and India does better ). If not , time to take action !

According to Apparel Promotion Export Council ( APEC) , an estimated 4.5 million jobs have been lost over the past 3.5 years . Do our policy makers know how an ordinary Indian would survive without a salary for even a week and what pains his family and relatives pass through him being a jobless !

If all of you witnessed the discount sales season, it was advanced and even extended to make up for the shortfall , and this must show the desperation from the companies to meet the numbers . Unfortunately , If corrective steps are not taken immediately , we will have more companies getting into CDR or closure and millions of jobs might be lost till 2015……worst is yet to come !

Let me quote a facts about why India gained political independence and what was the average age of leadership . Maulana Azad became the President of INC at the age of 35 , Bose became the President of INC at the age of 41 and Nehru became the  President of INC at the age of 40… So now we know  why we got political freedom and why we have not been able to get economic freedom ??? For a nation with more than 65 % of the population below 35 years , it is important to take care of the representation of youth to lead this country with fresh innovative ideas for a double digit growth and that too  grounds up. Though our policy makers tell us that we cannot grow at about 8 % , but the fact is that, in 2011 calendar year , 12 countries clocked more than 8 % growth and some of them like Ghana , Iraq , China , Argentina and Turkey are not exactly small . We have been capped by the ‘old school of policy makers’ and their thinking , who believe that they know all and what they do is right ! This has to go now ! We need leaders with a nose on the ground , good governance and a strong political will and rest will fall in place . Government must earn from the rich and middle class, and help upgrade the lower income class to middle class on a ‘mission mode’ basis by empowering them by providing them training , education, healthcare  and technology  .

Our country’s finance ministers have taken to ‘Populonomics’ ( Economics of populism ) , and not ‘economics’, and this has clearly shown the results to the common man . India is heading towards an economic disaster and short cuts like FDI are short lived solutions !

I can bet you that if a party rises above caste , religion ,reservation, dynasty ,  and parochial regional politics, it is sure to win the youth and come to power without taking to populism !

It is the time for the finance minister to move from being an ‘efficient tax collector’ to ‘passionate creator of wealth through innovation & entrepreneurship ’. India is the only country in the world at this time that  has ample opportunities for each problem to be solved and is a fertile basin for innovation ! If you were born as a human- being , you must be lucky, but if you are born as a human -being and that too, in India , you must be the luckiest on earth, and this describes our India today and what it can offer to the world !

All ministries must have wealth creation strategies  ! Just imagine that for the year 2012-13, India will have gross tax receipts of 1,077612 crores and expenditure of Rs.1490925 crore…. Even if we do the sell-offs , we still cannot pay off the Rs.45 lac crores of debts that India has ! Which assets will be left to sell for our next generation ( oh boy that’s too far , I must say in the next 10 years ) ,to sustain our economy ? I think then , our Government will call upon the US President and ask his farmers & companies to come and invest in Indian land and make it more productive , and that will be the final sell off of this once a great nation i.e India

I am not an economist, though , I have studied economics during my graduation ( but I must confess that I do not remember anything I studied during graduation J , and I am glad that I don’t remember anything J) All that I have written here is a common man’s perspective from the data and facts available in the public domain.  I have researched the state of economy well over five months to help our dear policy makers to do a better job and making the life of a common man better and not bitter !

I am leaving to US for two weeks on 14th October evening , and on my return, I will launch www.indiawewant.org ,and would welcome your suggestions and participation

With best wishes

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Economy I Healthcare I Retail I Innovation         

http://commonmansblog.com

 

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New Year might have plenty of bad news for the Economy


The New year ( 2012 ) will not be a good year for India . The industrial production is falling , interest rates have gone up , corruption is on the rise , inflation is going up, rupee is going down compared to the dollar, and the investment outlook for India is negative due to wrong policies pursued by the congress government over the past several years .

It is time to change and bring a fresh look at the fundamentals of the economic policy & social disbursements 

I was speaking with one of my friend from abroad , and he was of the view that USA / Europe  is headed for the worst and India is no better off ! Hope it is not true !

Hoping that things will change miraculously !

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

 

 

 

An Open letter to the Prime Minister


13th September 2010

Dr. Manmohan Singh

Prime Minister

Government of India

7, Race Course , New Delhi-110011

An Open letter from a common man

Dear Dr.Singh,

Namaskaar

I wrote you a letter on 14th February this year asking about creating wealth and employment ( available on my blog www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com ). Post that letter , i did hear Pranab da stating that we need to create wealth ……..but as always, i have not seen a concrete action plan post that “loaded statement”

For the past few months , i have been wanting to communicate to you what an ordinary Indian thinks about the current state of affairs, so that you can take appropriate action. Since so many things have happened, i will just randomly start than prioritizing any particular issue

Wastage of Food grains : In India , it has been a tradition of not wasting food on the plate . But we are wasting more than 50000 of tons of food grain and on the other side , we are having unprecedented and unchecked inflation. Conditions are revolting for the common man. If i was born in a deprived family , i would have become a ‘Civilian with a gun, out there to seek revenge’; what you can call as a naxalite !! But i have a very decent corporate job , i live with my family in Mumbai and i have a more sophisticated way to vent my anger with this note ( i presume that is the reason why we say that the Pen is mightier than the sword ! ). Else , for sure , i would be a more dreaded naxalite that Koteshwara Rao !! My social & financial standing prohibit me to think on those lines for moment  …………

Back to the point of the wastage of food grains , i am quite surprised that supreme court ( knowing well , that our courts are the most inefficient & corrupt  ). Still they felt that the government should distribute grains free than letting them rot and even passed an order . Not just the citizens but the court also believes that the government is a laggard when it comes to addressing the issues of the common-man & So it had to pass an order !)

What are the steps you are taking to ensure that this wastage does not happen again ?  Have you taken the FCI & Ministry of agriculture to task for a poor job on forecasting the production , planning storage and facilitating distribution of grains or exporting them rather than letting them rot when the country is facing a double digit inflation ? If i were in your position, i would sack the minister , the secretary of the Ministry & a bunch of senior officials responsible for the criminal waste and start the legal proceedings to penalise them & disqualify them from holding any post ever . So that no one would ever repeat this even for one KG of food grain, leave alone 50,000 tonnes. You seem to be enjoying as a silent spectator !!

Dr.Singh , how would you feel if your children or grand children slept hungry for a few days or just had one meal a day ? Do not forget that , 4 lac of children have their first birthday as their last  & 56 % of the women suffer from anaemia . All this is easily preventable . I wish your children were malnourished and then you became the Prime Minister

Honesty , inefficiency & Corruption : Dr.Singh, i sometimes wonder why people call you honest ! In my view , you are not  honest at all . Yes you might have some integrity ( though you have become morally flexible to a large extent ). Let me quote your silence on ministries handled by Mamta , Lalu, Raja,  Sharad and others……..if you were honest , you would never tolerate their incompetence and corrupt practices ! You are the patron ( rather the Head ) of this gang of inefficient ministers  . CBI has become ‘Congress Blackmail & Bachane ka institution” . When there is a show of strength in Lok Sabha or there is a need for support  , CBI goes to the Supreme court to withdraw cases against Mulayam , Maya and Lalu etc .  Whenever these people take congress to task , CBI starts knocking the door with charge sheets. Which honesty are you talking about Dr.Singh or are you selectively blind ?

Leadership abilities : You had once remarked that the history will judge you & not the opposition . Let me tell you that history would judge you as the most incapable leader who moved with the tide & sometimes it worked ( like in 1990’s ) and most of the time you failed miserably

Your party always projects you as the person who modernized India. Totally wrong !! In 1990’s , you were pushed against the wall with foreign exchange left for just a few days . Dr.Singh, you had no choice but to let the rupee devalue , and let the foreign investors bring money , and that too, was envisioned by PVNR ( who will never get his due share as he is was not from the Gandhi clan !! )

If you are such a great economist ( Look at your team: Finance minister is an economist , Home minister is a past finance minister , Montek is a finance man , In addition to this , you have Kaushik Basu, Raghuram Rajan etc….bunch of economic advisors ) . Then, why the hell are you all floundering !! You are all simply clueless about inflation and its solution!

I heard Pranab da saying yesterday that he was worried with inflation rising again !! He actually meant that he was failing ! I know that sometimes it is hard to put the right words, but public is not a fool Dr.Singh . We can make out what is underneath your statements .

Here is what historians would actually consider while rating you :

  1. Allegiance to the Gandhi clan and not to the nation
  2. Sharm-Al Shaikh & your love for Bush ( the residents of America hated the man and you loved him , i always fail to understand this one )
  3. Double digit Inflation ( You even failed as a astrologer here )
  4. Common Wealth Games fiasco
  5. Kashmir violence ( Worst thing to imagine is that house wives are on the streets pelting stones & Omar & you are on the same boat !! )
  6. Naxalites
  7. Relations with China ( Visa row clearly indicates that relations are at an all time low )
  8. US sanctions against outsourcing and increasing the VISA fees ( you just get flattered by Barack’s calling you ‘Guru’ , and you have gone overboard to get the nuclear deal through . Look at India’s past, and you will see that whenever India has faced sanctions , India has come out with its innovative research and developed the capabilities . Agni & Chandrayaan were built by Indian scientists. I don’t think that we should have surrendered our ‘Nuclear Sovereignty’ by signing the nuclear deal with a lot of riders and opening our sites for inspection to foreign powers …..You have let us down & undermined the capability of our scientists Dr.Singh ! Long term prospects of India of being the nuclear giant is gone with the deal . Without the deal , we could have taken longer but become stronger
  9. Relations with Pakistan , Nepal & Sri Lanka have gone at an all time low during your regime
  10. Farmers suicides are a blot to this nation
  11. Andhra Violence
  12. You are the only Prime Minister who has appointed & tolerated incompetent & disobedient ministers like Mamta , Sharad , Raja , Tharoor et al.

Under your Prime Ministership the political health, Social health & Economic health of the nation has touched a new low . I am not a fan of Advani , but when i see what Mani Shanker Aiyer did recently w.r.t. the Common Wealth Games or what Tharoor did a few months back or what Digvijay Singh has been saying about the Home minister or your own M.P’s criticizing the Kapil Sibal or Jagan defying congress and continuing with its Odarpu Yatra , i think Advani was right in saying that you are a weak Prime Minister . This is the worse government we have ever seen . The things have gone so bad that people curse you and your team . Even those who are well to do, are revolting in conscience and criticizing you …………you should be ashamed Dr.Singh  of still sticking in your chair . Media calls you night watch man !! I feel ashamed to mention the language common man uses for you .

Dr.Singh , you represent the ‘political culture’ of this nation . If you are silent ( or helpless  ) seeing  the corruption and inefficiency of the ministers who report into you , how can you expect the citizens of this nation to stand up against corruption and inefficiency ? You are leading by a wrong example . Please change it immediately or do not give talks that calls the people to stand up & raise voice , when you are silent and blind to acts of corruption , inefficiency and nepotism !!

Seeing what you have done , i can put here that you never could become a politician and failed , and also that the professor in you died as you could not convince your colleagues of looking after the nation as per the mandate given to your government .

Every minute you stay in office or every inch you move is financed by my taxes ( read common man’s tax money  ), and i have every right to question you about your indecision and decisions both . Please do not ignore the concerns of the common-man . Change your style of working , make changes in your cabinet , let the corrupt ministers go …….and do not do the mistake to pass off Rahul as a representative of youth for the nation ………He does not represent the youth , he represents the Gandhi’s

I expect you to act on this ……………you already have a detailed note sent out to you on Feb 14th about the steps you could consider to take in the interest of this nation . Else , resign and go. For sure , we will get a better Prime Minister ……..

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: Office@rajendragupta.in

President@countryfirst.org

Growth, Recession & Realities


Dear Blog Readers,
Thanks for your continuous feedback .
I am attempting to address the issues that you have talked about .
Over the last few months, i have been reading a lot about inflation , double digit growth and so on………………..
We need to understand the real issues a little deeper and better if we wish to do something worthwhile for this nation
Consider the following :

A few decades back , government thought that nationalization was in the best interest of this nation and it nationalised the airlines , banks etc…….Now after a few decades , privatization is considered in the best interest of the nation !!!
The government was cursing the huge population in 80”s and termed it as  ‘Population Explosion’ . Now the government is talking of the demographic dividend , because everyone across the world is  talking about the same ! We are having the government that does not have original ideas but have copy cat versions or China inspired & induced growth !
What is the government doing to convert ‘No productivity jobs into low productivity jobs and finally into high productivity jobs’ Every district should focus on productivity  . People do not reason the government and never questions the actions and government even does not know if it is doing the right things .
Look at these facts

Between 2010 and 2020, India will add 120 million people in the ‘working age population’ . It will also add 43 Million senior citizens to its population . Does the  government have a concrete plan to address this ?
If we do not plan for 120 million people that we are adding to the working age population , we will be provoking between 10-30 % of them into naxalites or anti-social elements . Imagine , 12-36 million gun wielding naxalites !!
If there is no growth , it does not lead to poverty . It either leads to ill health  & evil minds . Which is more disastrous than poverty   In the next 10 years , some parts of India will become more developed than they are today. We will become a more materialistic nation in places like Mumbai , Goregaon , Bangalore , Pune etc…………….. Media would have exposed this ‘Have not’s’ to this material world .This will lead to aspirations in youth for a better life style, and with no means to make it to this elite league with legitimate means , the criminal route to making money will lead to more extortion , more drug lords and criminals in politics – GDP growth can be 8.5 % or 10 % but criminal activity will growth much faster under such conditions . There is no doubt on this . India will become a naxalite factory and will surpass Pakistan in producing anti-social elements
GDP attributable to agriculture is de-growing , GDP attributable to services and industry is growing . Agriculture not only supports 57 % of the work force & has low productivity per capita but has to feed the 1.2 Billion population else , we know the triple digit inflation that will strike India by 2050.
Agricultural productivity can go up if we bring down the cost of logistics from the current of 16 %. Worldwide , it is around 9  % …………. Government must plan in detail how to boost the agricultural productivity
We are treading a difficult path and the “demographic dividend will become a ‘demographic disaster’ or the ‘Demographic bomb’.

People with many educational degrees ( Indian experts from USA  recruited by the government as advisors ) are working for people with no degrees (poor population ) . So they do not identify the real problem leave alone addressing the issues . Recently , i have heard about the food coupons being distributed to the BPL families . What a joke ? BPL people do not know how to read and write & also this is bound to be misused ( 10 paisa of every 10 rupees will reach the BPL families )
Few fundamentals have to change .

India has not to change , Indians have to change .

Made in India has to become made in ‘rural India’

We are talking of CSR ( Corporate Social Responsibility ) but what we need is ISR –(Individual’s Social Responsibility )

We are all talking of divestment . The government is looking to raise Rs.40,000.00 crore through divestment but  why is government not looking at investing back 10 % of the divestment money to build another PSU that can yield returns disproportionate on its investments ? How about setting up the Solar Energy Corporation of India or the Hydro Power corporation of India ?  Build them now . Don’t just sell
Governments tax collection targets have been missed by around Rs. 40000 crore, i am sure that divestment target is also going to be missed !! Where will be the GDP deficit be in 2011-12 ?
Indian government has not just to create jobs ( employment ) but also create entrepreneurs . It has to think inside the box only ( forget out of box ). Imagine , if different cities with tourism potential start training tourist guides , taxi drivers and listing  them on a central website . People travelling to these towns can avail the services of the government approved guides at the pre-decided rates & can pay in advance through the website . The money can be transferred electronically directly to the service provider after a referral cut ( government can retail 20 % &  transfer 80 % money). Safety & savings for tourists and income for self employed people .
Back to my favourite recession & India :

Why did recession in the USA / Europe not affect India so much  Or you all believed that government was able to protect India from recession effectively ? Think about this report
Times of India , 17th March 2010. According to the WHO – UNICEF report ,58 % of all the people in the world who defecate in the open are in India . 638 Million people in India have no access to toilets . Will India, with such living conditions ever get effected by recession ? The same government could not control inflation . Imagine how they can control affects of recession – they faked the efforts and impacts and we all believed it like fools !
In 62 years after Independence , we have more than 60 % population having no access to ( toilets ) hygiene , 2/3rd of the population living in absolute poverty , 1/6th of the nation living in naxalites controlled areas . And we are already a “recession proof” India . Entire India has still not felt the impact of growth except a few urban towns , so recession hitting us is a joke ?
By the way , next few days will show India conquering the world as ‘ BHARTI is acquiring an African Telecom Giant’. Read all the headlines …………………………..
While you read these headlines , more than 50 % of India will go to sleep without a meal ………………………..
And also, according to the government , the austerity drive for Indian government  is over & our babu’s and politico’s can fly business class, so finally , India is out of recession & on a high growth phase
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email : Office@rajendragupta.org

USA & the New World Order – Rajendra Pratap Gupta


Speech delivered by Rajendra Pratap Gupta at the US-ASIA Business forum at Los Angeles , USA on 12th September 2009 at the Los Angeles Convention Center , LA, USA

Global Economy – in the new world order

Good Morning ladies and Gentlemen

A very interesting session !!

Like an earth quake changes the topography , the recession changes the eco-geography ( Economic Geography ) . Every time a recession has sets in , the world is put on a reset button. We have seen in the past that the earlier recessions have changed the world order. The 20th century recession changed the world .The supremacy of the British empire ended paving the way for a bi-polar world from a uni-polar world. This recession will shift the world order again . It will now change to a multi-polar world . It is a natural progression from a uni-polar world to a bi-polar world to a multi-polar world

For more than a century since the invention of the Steam Engine, America has been a source of inspiration and awe for the world. Today , it is a source of learning and unlearning . It has shown the difference between being ‘Big’ and being ‘Great’.

Over the years , we have also seen the growing interdependence of the developed economies on the developing world.
We have seen how G-4 nations, the group of four biggest economies have, over a period of time expanded to G-5, G-8, G-14 & now G-20. After the recent crises , India, China & other developing economies have been invited to participate and play a role in revival of the Global economy. We are just seeing the economic evolution , which is similar to the Human evolution. It was earlier the survival of the biggest , then came the survival of the fittest and now will be the survival of the most agile & interdependent economies .

We have seen that the corporations that stood tall for over 150 years, collapsed in weeks last year. It had a cascading effect . Companies that were associated with such global corporations suffered huge losses. Nothing is infallible in this dynamic world. We need to have foresight , intelligence & be responsible to keep standing tall.

I see that there has been a lot of hue and cry on outsourcing, and I don’t understand how can people drive the market by such ad hoc policies ? We must not forget that outsourcing was started to create economic, internal efficiencies and customer focus , and this finally lead to Globalization. Globalization is an irreversible process . It is a fact that market conditions drive the economies today. It is more important to see the index of the stock exchange every day and not the GDP of a nation to gauge the market sentiment and the economic outlook. Today, the companies are not driven by market share but by share market . So are the economies. We must not forget that the developed economies or the world class cities & global conglomerates have been built by immigrants and locals working together . Today, this is more relevant . We have moved to an interdependent World

Out sourcing is market driven and it will always exist, where ever companies & countries want to grow .

This year, for the first time, we have seen that about 20000 of the 65000 H1B VISA’s have not been used out of the yearly quota . This signals a drastic shift . Till last year , the applications were over quota on the first few days of the opening . And there used to be a lucky draw for allocating H1B Visa to applicants in India. Suddenly , there are no takers this year. The very ‘brand America’ is hit badly.

Today, there is one world economy interlinked with three category of customers – developed , developing and under-developed countries

The developed countries have reached the peak and are saturated , and growth is going to be marginal . Investments will not be forth-coming in such a scenario and money invested might not yield good returns . The major corporations from the developed world need to support and get support from the rest of the world for future growth.

Developing countries like India & China support more than 2.4 Billion consumers . A great place !! These customers need more investment, and growth & returns would be fantastic . These countries also need to learn from the experience of the developed world , they need knowledge sharing , technology support & investment to scale up and work with the developed world

Under –developed countries; The more we invest, the more better & bigger markets we will be able to create for developed & developing countries . This is the future

Today , the mix of the world economies present a unique synergy and a tremendous opportunity to work together and progress; much more , much faster. There is no competition at all globally , we just require to understand the growth equation in the world order & invest , collaborate and scale much ahead . Horizons are expanding as we are trying to reach them. The world is not just a market where we represent either sellers or buyers , but it is a family knit more closely than ever before . Globalization is not just irreversible but is also indispensible force that drives us together , ahead . Remember , we are equity partners in the global economic progress where wars drive down our returns and growth increases our returns . We know that , today, business interests drive the political decisions . So we require a more close and a strong business relationship between the developed , developing and the under-developed economies to ensure a lasting peace and progress universally.

For more than a decade , America has been a land of opportunity for the rest of the world . Today, the rest of the world is a land of opportunity for America .

I would like to define the developed , developing and under-developed economies as the past , present and future of the new world order and without past , you cannot plan your future !

Two important points to note :

First : There is a reversal of destinations , innovation has moved out of the developed world , as innovation always follows the struggling race. Today , developing and under-developed world houses the world’s best innovative minds & the real consumers . They are the fertile economies . Let’s accept this fact and shape our vision accordingly. The destinations have reversed in the last 15 years and we need to see them as interdependent destinations

Second: You cannot give up outsourcing and still sell your products and services to the developing and under-developed countries. You need to understand that the developing economies are also the consumers. Today China might be a developing economy but also is the biggest lender to America & has 1.3 billion consumers . If China decided to en-cash all the American bonds , the American economy will come down today evening . But we understand that the valuation of dollar is what holds the value of Chinese economy’s reserves. If China decides to en-cash US securities , Dollar will fall and so both the economies will collapse simultaneously. So today , we are closely inter woven and cannot bully a nation. We are partners in progress and partners in downfall alike . Today no country can be independent in resources to meet its population’s needs without interdependence . We depend on oil from Middle East , manufacturing from China & IT & Knowledge from the eastern countries like India . Indian & Chinese economy suffered a hit due to slowing down of the US economy but do you know why Germany slowed down ? Because the Chinese and Indian companies stopped buying heavy machinery from Germany and so was the case with many such countries . It was not just the US economy driving down production , it was also the developing economies that affected the developed world. We have to understand the fact that, it is a either win –win –win or a lose-lose-lose for the interdependent world in today’s equation. The world has come close together like one family during this crisis . We need to use this as an opportunity to develop more understanding for a longer and a deeper global partnership so that we can avoid future recessions . We are all living in a fully integrated and inter-dependent world. It is like a necklace . One weak link can break the entire chain and the necklace will fall off.

Also, America needs to have a re-think on some of its strategies . It needs to invest more on development of the developing world . Just think $ 568 billion was given as aid in S. Africa for the last 42 years and more than $ 642 Billion is being spent on Iraq war . Today the world could have been a much better place & probably out of recession, had the war money gone to the development of the world’s under-developed and developing economies . These could have been the biggest customers for US companies !! We should not forget the point that the majority of the biggest corporations in the world are from America .

Globalization according to me, means a truly interdependent and an intertwined world.

So, it is clear that we live in a truly interdependent world & that we need more even distribution of opportunity and challenges all over the world , and invest more on economic opportunities than enhancing military capabilities; to share more wealth to a much larger mass of population . Thriving businesses can do that faster without much involvement from the government . The forums like US-ASIA business forums must happen more frequently to develop an understanding , partnerships and facilitate a better flow of resources , ideas , goods & services to all the three categories of customers & vice versa

I would suggest my friend Kevin Kaul to take the US- ASIA business forum to a much broader scale and help develop the understanding of interdependence of the new world order between the past , present & future i.e. developed , developing and under developed economies to bring all round progress for the whole world
Thank you and enjoy the rest of your day

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

515-450-8036 (USA)
+91-922 33 44 542 ( India )
+971-553 121829 (UAE )

Email : office@rajendragupta.org
office.rajendra@gmail.com

Third World War is on- Rajendra Pratap Gupta


Actual GDP growth around 4 % ? – Rajendra Pratap Gupta

According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.

Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.

The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.

Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %

Bad loans jumped by 60 % in the third quarter of 2009 for CANARA Bank . Almost similar is the case with other banks .

Had the sixth pay commission recommendations not been implemented , the growth would have been much lower than 5.3%. Growth would have been lower than 4.3 % for Q3 2008

With the rising unemployment as time passes, we are headed towards creating more NPA’s in the financial sectors. With banks becoming more risk averse , their profitability will suffer, as they wound not make money in lending , and give away interest on deposits and lose on increasing NPA’s via defaults .

Chinese economy is slowing down, and it will affect Indian economy in two ways. One , the exports to China will slow down . Second, the Chinese will dump the goods in India with the closing of Chinese factories

If you thought that the Third world war would be fought with weapons , you were fooling yourself. We are in midst of the third world war . Every part of the world is fighting . But as it would have been , the very definition has changed , we are all resorting to protectionism- Financial world war- This is nothing but the third world war in its new avatar.

We are headed towards a major crisis . Time to act fast ………..

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

E-mail : rajendra.india@gmail.com