Actual GDP growth around 4 % ? – Rajendra Pratap Gupta
According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry provisional data released on 6th March 09.
Core growth shrinks to 1.4 % in Jan 09.
The growth of six infrastructure industries – crude , oil , refinery products, coal , power , cement and finished steel –slumped to 1.4 %. Reflecting India’s decline in consumption and getting deeper into recession. Sector had grown at 3.6 % last year. According to the provisional data released , the crude production & petroleum refinery output slipped into a negative growth in January, recording a fall of 8.1 % and 2.6 %.
Agriculture has already moved to negative growth at -2.2 %
Bad loans jumped by 60 % in the third quarter of 2009 for CANARA Bank . Almost similar is the case with other banks .
Had the sixth pay commission recommendations not been implemented , the growth would have been much lower than 5.3%. Growth would have been lower than 4.3 % for Q3 2008
With the rising unemployment as time passes, we are headed towards creating more NPA’s in the financial sectors. With banks becoming more risk averse , their profitability will suffer, as they wound not make money in lending , and give away interest on deposits and lose on increasing NPA’s via defaults .
Chinese economy is slowing down, and it will affect Indian economy in two ways. One , the exports to China will slow down . Second, the Chinese will dump the goods in India with the closing of Chinese factories
If you thought that the Third world war would be fought with weapons , you were fooling yourself. We are in midst of the third world war . Every part of the world is fighting . But as it would have been , the very definition has changed , we are all resorting to protectionism- Financial world war- This is nothing but the third world war in its new avatar.
We are headed towards a major crisis . Time to act fast ………..
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
E-mail : firstname.lastname@example.org