Youth, Women, Minorities and Regional parties hold the key to success.
In the last twenty five years, the electoral dynamics has changed. It is easier to understand and a challenge to manage. One who can manage will form the government at the center.
Let’s have a look:
According to 2009 electoral rolls, women are in majority in six states Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Poducherry.
• Andhra has 2.86 crore women compared to 2.80 crore men
• Kerala has 1.11 crore women compared to 1.03 crore men
• Manipur has 8.97 lac women compared to8.29 lac men
• Poducherry has 3.91 Lac women compared to 3.63 lac men
• Tamilnadu , Daman , Diu had more registered women than men
Also we must carefully understand the implications of these statistics :
• 49.1 % was the percentage of votes that congress got in 1984 elections, in which it won 404 seats.
• 48.7 % was the percentage of both the congress and BJP combined in 2004 elections.
• 477 is the number of seats that six national parties got in the 10th Lok Sabha elections in 1991
• 51 is the number of seats that state and regional parties got in 1991 . In 2004, they got 154 seats.
• BSP increased the number of seats from 5 to 14 in 1998-2004, increasing its percentage vote from 4.63 to 5.33%
• SP increased its seats from 20-36 from 1998-2004 & decreased its percentage vote from 4.93 to 4.32
• RJD increased its seats from 20-24 between 1998-2004 and the percentage vote decreased from 4.93 % to 2.41 %
• DMK increased its seats from 6 to 16 between 1998 till 2004. And the percentage vote increased from 1.44 o 1.81 %
• BJP had a 1.6 % vote loss costing the party as many as 44 seats in 2004
• In the last election Congress got about 26 % seats and BJP got about 22.16 % votes
• Muslim form more than 30 % of the electorate in 42 of the 543 seats
• In 1998 Lok Sabha polls only 7 % of the muslims voted the BSP and 61 % for SP. But in 2007 assembly polls , 32 percent voted for the BSP and 40 % for SP.
• There are 34.8 crore youth in the age group of 15-34 years .
• Of these, about 10 crore are in the 15-19 years of age . Of these , 7 crore are rural and 3 crore are urban .
• Of the urban youth , more than one crore are living in large cosmopolitan towns and the more than one crore are living in small towns less than one lakh.
• Of the 3 crore urban youths , only 1.3 crore youths have completed their matriculation or higher secondary .
• Another 24.8 Crore youth are in the economically active age group of 20-34 years.
• Amongst these 7.6 crore are in urban areas , more than a third of them in small towns of less than one lakh.
• Only 3.6 crore of the 7.6 crore have studied till matriculation or above.
• And there are only 1.3 crore graduates . If we count total number of young graduates ( Urban & Rural ). It will add up to 2 crore.
If the party can understand the evolving electoral dynamics & worsening economic scenario coupled with elections just 45 days ahead & has a carefully evolved high noise level strategy. Victory is a foregone conclusion
Rajendra Pratap Gupta