Youth and Women hold the key to success in 2009 Elections- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Youth, Women, Minorities and Regional parties hold the key to success.

In the last twenty five years, the electoral dynamics has changed. It is easier to understand and a challenge to manage. One who can manage will form the government at the center.

Let’s have a look:

According to 2009 electoral rolls, women are in majority in six states Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Poducherry.

• Andhra has 2.86 crore women compared to 2.80 crore men

• Kerala has 1.11 crore women compared to 1.03 crore men

• Manipur has 8.97 lac women compared to8.29 lac men

• Poducherry has 3.91 Lac women compared to 3.63 lac men

• Tamilnadu , Daman , Diu had more registered women than men

Also we must carefully understand the implications of these statistics :

• 49.1 % was the percentage of votes that congress got in 1984 elections, in which it won 404 seats.
• 48.7 % was the percentage of both the congress and BJP combined in 2004 elections.
• 477 is the number of seats that six national parties got in the 10th Lok Sabha elections in 1991
• 51 is the number of seats that state and regional parties got in 1991 . In 2004, they got 154 seats.
• BSP increased the number of seats from 5 to 14 in 1998-2004, increasing its percentage vote from 4.63 to 5.33%
• SP increased its seats from 20-36 from 1998-2004 & decreased its percentage vote from 4.93 to 4.32
• RJD increased its seats from 20-24 between 1998-2004 and the percentage vote decreased from 4.93 % to 2.41 %
• DMK increased its seats from 6 to 16 between 1998 till 2004. And the percentage vote increased from 1.44 o 1.81 %
• BJP had a 1.6 % vote loss costing the party as many as 44 seats in 2004
• In the last election Congress got about 26 % seats and BJP got about 22.16 % votes
• Muslim form more than 30 % of the electorate in 42 of the 543 seats
• In 1998 Lok Sabha polls only 7 % of the muslims voted the BSP and 61 % for SP. But in 2007 assembly polls , 32 percent voted for the BSP and 40 % for SP.

Youth :

• There are 34.8 crore youth in the age group of 15-34 years .
• Of these, about 10 crore are in the 15-19 years of age . Of these , 7 crore are rural and 3 crore are urban .
• Of the urban youth , more than one crore are living in large cosmopolitan towns and the more than one crore are living in small towns less than one lakh.
• Of the 3 crore urban youths , only 1.3 crore youths have completed their matriculation or higher secondary .
• Another 24.8 Crore youth are in the economically active age group of 20-34 years.
• Amongst these 7.6 crore are in urban areas , more than a third of them in small towns of less than one lakh.
• Only 3.6 crore of the 7.6 crore have studied till matriculation or above.
• And there are only 1.3 crore graduates . If we count total number of young graduates ( Urban & Rural ). It will add up to 2 crore.

If the party can understand the evolving electoral dynamics & worsening economic scenario coupled with elections just 45 days ahead & has a carefully evolved high noise level strategy. Victory is a foregone conclusion

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Mob: +91-9323109456


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