Michael Jackson’s death & the Indian Economy have similarities – Rajendra Pratap Gupta


Indian Economy Opti – ‘mystic’ about growth numbers- Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Why is an economy of a billion people failing ? why are we fast becoming a junk economy ? I know it is quite good to hear 7.5 % growth estimates coming from the government, with riders that are totally justifiable for our failure to achieve 7.5 % growth or ‘cook’ the numbers to show ‘Illusionary statistic’. The future predictions of 7.5 % growth are dependent on US Economy , Oil economy & Rain Gods . Do you still believe our politicians for the growth numbers ?

Growth in 2008-09 : A large part of our 6.7 % growth in 2008-09 was nothing more than an illusion. 1.8 % out of it is accounted for by a 7 % spurt in ‘community , social and personal services’. Which is the arrears paid to 20 million government servants in 2008. If we deduct this out of the 2008-9 estimate , the actual growth was 4.8 % and not 6.7 %.

Confirming the correction of the GDP data to only the second half of 2008-09 , which is when the pay commission awards were paid out, reveals the GDP grew not by 5.8 % but only 2.2 %. This is the harsh reality. Check the fact that , agriculture grew by 1.6 % and industry, utilities & construction reported 2.4 % growth in the entire year as stated by the economic survey. Did we actually grow by 6.7 % ?

This year could be the worst for the economy. Outlook for industry is more bleak; zero growth till May 09. Agriculture is slipping due to poor show from the rain Gods . Even World Bank’s estimate for growth at 4 % looks optimistic

Now that government has to borrow about 4 lac crore to finance its largesse . If the government is borrowing 4 lac crore , what will happen to such an economy . Are we not already a bankrupt & Junk Economy ? Are we waiting for it to be rated as junk !!

No government or department talks about the ‘Job deficit ‘. Hiring Indra Nooyi or Raghuram Rajan to drive in ideas don’t work, as these people have stayed away from India for long and they themselves are in out of touch with the common man’s problems . So their solutions would all be on financial reforms, and they cannot suggest things that can salvage the common man. Till the common man does not become financially strong , Indian economy cannot take off. NAREGA is not the soultion , it is just a temporary morphine like injection to ease out pain . Indian economy will collapse like Michael Jackson, who died of drug overdose .

The status of the government is better than the citizens who cannot even borrow money to run their finances. We need a miracle to happen to save this nation .

There is more than what meets the eye- Rajendra Pratap Gupta


July 6, 2009

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Member of Parliament
Lok Sabha, New Delhi 110001.

Dear Dr.Joshi,

Thanks for the call. It was a pleasure talking with you again. I have always appreciated your approach of being connected to the common man, recognizing the talent, promoting it , and talking straight, no matter what!

As advised, I am sending my inputs not just for the Economic survey and the budget, but also on the overall situation facing the government.

I have been following the budget & the overall situation in India. Budget is a routine event. As I had expected, budget did not give any answers but only raised a few questions! As always, Congress has been known as pro-rich and propaganda-wise, pro-poor. Common man is just a slogan . Under the new tax structures, people who earn more will have to pay less tax. This is what Congress regimes have done since independence . That’s the reason , more than 60 % of the people are poor and cannot afford to spend more than Rs.20 a day . Budget was just to divert the attention from equally important issues, without addressing any concerns of the common man and this nation.

I must draw the attention of the powers that be, that, recently I read that Pakistan is a ‘failed state’. I must add that, India is a ‘failing state’. Let me put the points why I say this.

Every nation has three weapons ; Economic , political and military weapons, and every nation has three priorities i.e. domestic economic growth & employment , security of the nationals & healthcare , and peaceful relations with the neighbors & good relations with super powers . Let’s examine each

Economy: We are told that the economy is getting better, and that there are ‘green shoots’ because of the ‘Green shots’. I am rather surprised! Rising Sensex does not raise the GDP of the nation! I don’t think that the fundamentals have changed either in the domestic market or in the global scene in the last three months. Whilst, I believe that the current budget is based on ‘Hope’ & ‘Hype’, ‘Ifs’ & ‘Buts’ , but the realities can’t be ignored for long- we will make our condition irreversible .Oil prices have been cleverly increased before the budget. It is high time that people gave up the thought that, Indian population is a good shock-absorber with a short memory that believes in forgive & forget!!

The growth that we saw as 6.7 % in 2008 was due to the government spending and stimulus, and atleast, I cannot rejoice on that as a common man. Prices are still sky high for food items- retail inflation is around 12 %, loan rates are high and jobs are flying away. These three factors are adding to uncertainty and fear. The stimulus are like giving more drugs to a drug addict, so that he lives longer , avoids immediate pain , but weakens with every dose and time passing, and finally collapses’. Moreover, the stimulus that the government has given is in forms of tax cuts and subsidies & and not spending. I don’t understand one thing, why do we need ‘Bold’ steps in every budget despite 60+ years after the freedom? Is this not a failure of the planning commission & our British legacy systems that has lead to Adhocism? Why the hell do we not look at changing the way we envision and plan for our nation? I believe that we are still not independent in our thoughts. We are still bogged down with western concepts of growth and success!! We must see deeper in this statement. Our system is more wrong than corrupt! Inefficiency cannot tackle inefficiency!!

Exports are falling month on a month, companies are paring down the costs and people are losing jobs every day. Uncertainty and fear are the two harsh realities of the current Indian economy. I know that Dr. Manmohan ji is taking of 7.5 % growth, but has three riders; if US Economy bottoms out by September, Rains are adequate and Oil does not give a shock. I think this is a clever statement or trying to pull a fast one. If one of the three or all three goes wrong, then what is going to be growth of the Indian economy? Ideally an economist of his experience should table before the parliament the three best cases and worse case scenarios incase all goes wrong or two or just one factor fails us? We cannot be silent spectators in a time of such an unprecedented crisis. I see that global Economic intelligence; forecasting and contingency planning is clearly missing with our policy makers. We need proactive and pre-emptive policy makers! Thanks to India’s robust banking system and strong fundaments (as we hear often!) that India’s credit rating is currently one notch above junk status at BBB-.

My belief is that, India’s problems have been structural, and with Indian meteorological department predicting less than normal rains, cyclical problems will also add to the woes of the government and the vast suffering population. So India’s problems today are both structural and cyclical, all because of the misguided policies of chasing wrong targets and attacking non-existent problems. India has some ‘high propaganda’ and ‘high leakage’ schemes like the NREGA etc. So the final outcome is not as expected. Execution of such schemes benefits the ruling class and not the working class and remains such a statistics. We have seen in the last 15 days that farmers are mortgaging their lands due to delayed rains. I am afraid that, if the rains are below normal, we will start hearing about farmer’s suicides again. Economic or fiscal management is as important as good governance, which is decimating all the progress. If the measures are missing, we will be back to square one!

The government should act fast, or else, the public would conclude having voted in haste, and we will see the change in the assembly elections that are due shortly

Recent survey from National Sample Survey (NSS) shows that, 60.5 % of the population were capable of spending only Rs.20 a day

National commission on enterprises in the unorganized sector had suggested that 77 % of the total population in the 2004-5 could spend less than Rs.20 / day / person

More glaring to note from the National Sample Survey (NSS) of 2004-5 that, only 24.4 % of the rural Indians used the Public distribution system (PDS) for rice and only 11 % used for wheat! Increasing outlay will not just solve problems.

Imagine this with the following facts:
Today , Tomato costs Rs. 15 K.g , Potato Rs.10 per K.g., Onion Rs. 12 per K.g. Rice cost more than Rs. 20 per K.g , Pulses are above Rs. 40 per K.g. Ginger is Rs. 100 per K.g. Do request our P.M. that BPL (Below poverty line) should be changed as a terminology to FSTD (Families fast starving to death). BPL is a very charitable word today seeing that, majority population of this nation cannot even earn enough to eat one decent meal a day!

I have not seen the recent Economic Survey in detail, but have been following it through media and press. The above stated facts do make one shudder at the thoughts of how many people would have died of starvation by the time you finish reading this note!!!

I am yet to see our learned politicians talking about the global environment in the budget. So I must educate our politicians on that as well. In the month of May, I was in Europe and this is what I discussed with various people.

Germany’s economic output will shrink by 6 %

UK.’s economic output will shrink by 4 %

French Economy will decline by 3 %

Italian economy will decline by 3.5 %

Romania’s Economy will decline by 4 %

Latvia’s economy will shrink by 13.1 %

Slovakia’s Economy will decline by 2.6 %

Of the 27 nations in EU, only Cyprus will grow. European Union expects its recession to last till 2011 & 8.5 million Europeans will lose jobs over the next 2 years.

With unemployment hitting 10.9 % in EU & 11.5 % in Euro area in 2010, EU has revised its GDP estimates for 2010, predicting a 0.1 % drop rather than a small rise.

This data is stated by Jaquin Almunia , Economic & Monetary Affairs Commissioner , European Union.

Germany’s boom has been due to sales abroad. Which reached 40 % of its total output because of China & India buying heavy machinery, but when growth in China & India collapsed due to economic down turn – Germany’s exports collapsed?

Facts of the US economy need not be mentioned – in June 09, US unemployment rate moved highest in the past 25 years US has already lost 6.5 million jobs since the recent recession. We are reading how many companies are going bankrupt!!

Bank of International settlements (BIS ) States in its 79th Annual report released on 29th June 09 that, there is a significant risk that recovery in emerging market economies will be delayed . Further BIS said that, foreign reserves in the first quarter fell to 80 % in Korea and India.

Given the possibility that external shocks could persist, such depletions raise questions about the reserve adequacy. A severe economic downturn and a delayed recovery in capital inflows could produce future episodes of market instability that could lead to a much faster draining of the reserves than suggested by these indicators.

Economic growth in developing world will be 1.2 %, the world bank had said on June 22. Developing nations in eastern Europe and Central Asia will be amongst the hardest hit, the world bank has stated. The region’s economy is likely to shrink by 4.7 % this year.

The World Economy will contract 2.9 % this year, as global trade slumps 9.7 % according to the Washington based Bank.

My belief is that , though the economies may not have a free fall any further, but will deteriorate slowly for two- four quarters. Growth will start only after one year, and that too, slowly. I don’t expect miraculous growth in the next two years . Miraculous growth is nothing but the growth that was at the start of 2007. So there is enough pain for the common man for the next one to two years.

Dr.Joshi, the issue is not of growth alone, it is about uniform growth. High growth and low distribution is not the solution, neither is low growth & high distribution. We are looking at in this budget high growth and wider distribution across all segments. Budget must address this issue .The growth of 6.7 % that we see is from 20 % of the Indian population. Our policy makers are all so glued to Mumbai and Delhi that we forget smaller towns.

What to address: E.g. one of the ‘Gem’s ‘is food processing sector. Of the total agricultural produce, India just processes only 5 % annually. In contrast, countries in the South East Asia process at 60 % of their food produce. This will not only create employment, but also give more income to farmers, thereby, raising their financial status and spending capacity. Perishables would not be lost, adding to the nation’s food bank. This would also enhance India’s share in the global food trade from 1.5 % to 3 % thereby increasing the forex . India has vast natural resources, we need to use them, generate employment.

Also, that we need 92 million jobs as identified by the 11th Plan. A report from the working group on skill development and training points out that 8% growth can create employment opportunities for about just 30 million people and special employment generation programmes can add another 20 million job opportunities . We must take into account that we add around 12.8 million are added to work force every year. Need is not just of job creation but the right skill development. Over 40 % of the government expenditure on education goes towards elementary education!! Will this work to help the nation??

Dr.Joshi, you must tell Dr.Singh that he is driving his car seeing the rear view mirror of another person’s car (China). He needs to look and drive his own car, and carefully look sideways and more importantly, the road below and ahead!! Integrity & good image of the PM is not a question but competence to steer the nation is! . He might be an intelligent Professor , a honest man but not a successful Prime Minister. He has so far failed as a PM . I do not wish to comment whether he is a ‘weak PM’ or ‘Strong’ & that does not matter here. But for sure , India has become weaker under his regime in the last five years . He will not be remembered for what he did in 90’s, but how he steers 09. That is the test of his leadership. You all must realise India is a world in itself & act accordingly.

Now coming to Military: This is our weakest link ! Most of the fighter planes are ‘flying coffin’s- every fort night, we have a crash. Agni missile is a ‘paper missile’, and out of 39 squadrons, only 9 work. Our submarines are in bad shape- top defense officials know this in the heart of heart- To conceal these secrets , the parties appoint army men on diplomatic or gubernatorial assignments . No comments on the nuclear arsenals! India is not at all strong militarily . We have seen Kargil; we see deaths in Kashmir, terrorists attacking. So Military- wise, we are a failed state. It is not that we cannot attack Pakistan; we know that we cannot defeat them! That’s the reason; we only bark at Pakistan and not bite!! Had US been in place of India, Pakistan would have been sanitised years ago for its mischievous demeanor & misadventure!!

How will this government ensure the safety of Indians!!

Security of the nation- Diplomacy :

Neighbors: We are surrounded by all the neighbors who are hostile.

China is raising the issue of Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.
Sri Lanka is resolutely hostile and we have just seen the end of war against Tamil Tigers.
Pakistan , less said the better.
Burma is known to patronize ULFA etc.
Bangladesh infiltration and our issues in North east is not a hidden issue. It is believed without doubt, that the Muslims from Bangladesh have increased in Guwahati & North east to such an extent that Hindus are in minority compared to Muslims. In the next election, we will not see victory of any other than Muslims – if the issue is not tackled now!
Nepal has already expressed its discontent and accused India of meddling in its internal affairs.
America is not the same as it was before signing the nuclear deal. It is doling out aid to arm Pakistan
Russia : has also agreed to supply arms to our neighbours

Now, having cleared the air about the failure of India’s diplomacy, I have nothing more to tell. Anyone can conclude a total failure!! We have failed to build friendly relations without neighbors.

Finally, Economically, we are clueless about the solution. We are one status above junk , having a huge fiscal deficit , rupee at a new low of Rs.48 to US $, Poverty is 60.5 % of the population , We have not built any shock absorbers in our economy . Defense is doing badly, Neighbors are hostile and we are weakest , waiting only to be attacked and defeated. Our foreign policy is a total failure. Are we not a failing state? Who to blame? The government, obviously. I don’t want to shift the focus due to this budget which is nothing more than a mere ‘Eyewash’.

Dr.Joshi , please do express the common man’s dilemma & pain in these unprecedented times of ‘fear’ and ‘uncertainty’ when you speak in Lok Sabha, and do inform our leaders that , we are not at all amused by the long speeches in the budget or ‘eye wash budget’ to pacify us till the next budget. We need outcomes drawn from each investment (Which is our own money given as direct and indirect taxes ), outcomes have to be measured in a time bound manner. We don’t just need to fix the problems but also fix the accountability. We need an outcomes based budget with a plan that addresses the three issues , Youth , Economy and Security of the nation, and creates enough jobs , eliminates corruption in judiciary and creates social security and safety for all staying within the borders of the nation without any discrimination based on caste , religion or economic stature.

Hope we will not be left to believe that we wasted another five years for a promise

Waiting to hear you in parliament

As always, with best regards

A common man
Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: rajendra.india@gmail.com

FDI in Retail


Dated : February 16th, 2009

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi
Chairman
Parliamentary Committee on Commerce
New Delhi

Ref : Foreign Direct Investment in Retail Sector

Dear Dr.Joshi,

I wish to draw your attention to the following for a postive consideration and further recommendations.

There has been a lot of debate about the opening of the retail sector for foreign direct investment

My view is , that the retail sector in India is a major employer and is the key to India’s youth employment and empowerment . It today comprises of about 12 million establishments . Adding to this, there are atleast 2 helpers at a retail outlet. Further , indirect employment is provided to at least 6 people

With such a massive employment potential . We must consider the following before we talk of FDI in retail sector

1. Why should foreign brands take away India’s earnings ? Land is ours, employees are ours, spending is ours , raw material is ours. Then why do we allow foreign co’s take away our earnings by just putting their brand names ?

2. It is a known fact that, most of the reputed brands all across the wordl manufacture their products in India sub continent and sell across the World . The products are of highest international quality and well accepted . Why do we not sell locally and serve the local economy as well

3. It is well known that this big foreign MNC’s change the rules of the game by increasing rentals , salaries and lowering prices or even increasing them . Thereby , making it difficult for the localites to operate . We cannot regulate all this , but for sure , we can check the entry of these MNC gaints

4. What the retailers in India need is a different version of FDI – Finance from Domestic Institutions . If we get finance from domestic finance intitutions , we will be more competitive and we can grow profitably and grow even internationally . Indian products are already sold in differne parts of the world

5. I also suggest you to consider and recomend that retail be given an ‘industry status’ and there should be a separate ministry for retail and vocational training . That also takes care of re-skilling of the talent . We have a sever skill gap that needs to be immediately addressed

Hope that your good selves will consider my suggestions and incorporate with your recommendations

Looking forward to hear from you

Thanks again with high regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Mobile : +91 9323109456
+91 9867300045
Email: president@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org

Address to the Journalists who covered the Mumbai Terror Strike on Nov 26,2008


This is the text of the speech delivered to over 100 Journalists who were Felicitated recently at a function organized on Feb 2nd 2009 at Mumbai.
Good Evening Friends,

We all are glad to have ‘brave hearts’ with us today and we feel proud of you. In fact, on 26th November, i was awaiting to board the flight at the New Jersey airport for Mumbai when i got a call from my friend with whom i had the lunch that afternoon. He sounded worried and said, Rajendra, my God, did you see what is happening in Mumbai? I asked him? What do you mean Nailesh? He said terrorist have taken over Taj and Hilton hotels and a police Commissioner has been shot dead. It sent shudders down my spine. I had heard about Akshardham temple but now, it was my very own Mumbai .I walked to the nearest TV screen at the airport. I was shocked. I could watch all this thousands of miles away as you all staked your lives and kept sending the live footage. This held the nation captive for three days to the television sets. After the freedom movement, this was the first time that united the communities and the nation.
Press has always played an important role in nation building and society.
How many of you know how the democratic movement started? It was with the Introduction of printing press in mid 15th century in Europe, the proliferation of printed information helped fuel the rise of democracy. So my journalist friends, when you started the democratic movement, you will also have to safeguard the same.
After this November 26 terror strike, a lot many politicians have lost their jobs and so a debate has started on whether press should have shown everything live. I strongly believe that, since the press was showing it live, and that the whole nation was watching it, those who were fighting the battle with terrorists performed to their very best. Else, we could have lost many more lives. You all in fact, pushed the forces for their best performance . Freedom of press should not be compromised .I would go to the extent of requesting to the government to even make the sting operations legal and give immunity to the press for bringing such issues to the public . Most of the development and progress that you see in India today, is due to two reasons ; first, cheap telecommunications and second, proliferation of the Media. Media has opened the eyes and ears of the common man.
Now coming to the root cause of terrorism: Remember that each of the terrorist had 400 USD. Intelligence agencies took weeks to figure out why only 400 USD was in each pocket. This is exactly the amount you require to pay to enter your boat or jetty into the Indian waters. Our national security is priced at USD 400 ? If we stand at the Vashi check post , the price is down to 500 rupees. You can get your truck into Mumbai by just slipping a Rs.500 note at the check post
“Unemployment, uncertainty & frustration amongst the youth coupled with corruption in the government and administrative inefficiency is the root cause of terrorism and you just cannot fight it with sophisticated weapons alone” .
Terrorism survives and thrives on political and systemic corruption and inefficiency .
Remember,
When trust fails, people resort to justice
When justice fails, people resort to power
When power fails, people resort to violence
India has already slipped into an economic recession .Thousands are becoming jobless every week. This will increase criminalization and health problems.
How can we help fight terrorism? We must have a nationwide ‘Neighbourhood program’. Where every 50 or 100 people in a locality form groups and spend 4 hours a week for community work. This way, we will be able to watch and ward out suspicious people and help build closer ties within the community and will be more active to serve the community and the nation better
Why did Country First decide to honour our Brave hearted journalists? Today we only recognise the contribution when someone dies, but rarely during their lifetime. You all could have been hit by hundreds of bullets getting fired. But you decided to stay there , track this terrorist strike at the cost of your lives. Police had weapons, all you had is just a camera & the conviction and courage to stand there without caring for yourself in the interest of this nation – that is Country First ! Some of you had a near death experience .We must recognise your contribution. So we are here today
Hat’s off to you !
Jai Hind!
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Country First
Email : President@countryfirst.org / mail@rajendragupta.org
Mobile :+91 9323109456 / 9867300045

Satyam Saga- Many heads may tumble. Raju’s life might be in danger


Rajendra Pratap Gupta

The satyam saga is not as simple as people believe . My personal view is, that it happened due to the political comfort Raju enjoyed with all the powers that are at play. More specifically , all the A.P. Governments be it of CBN or YSR..

I am sure that, this dirty trail will pull out many political skeletons. And if this is bound to happen, Raju’s life might be in danger . No A.P. politician would like to be named when elections are just a few weeks away. I fear that Raju might be eliminated in the name of a heart attack

The center must interrogate , investigate and keep the custody of Raju out of Andhra . But as we know, that our courageous politicians , corrupt agencies working under political influence and control, inefficient judiciary and biased press will not let the truth be out for the common man. That is what is called the CMP – Common Minimum Programme !!

Government has given mobilizing advance to Maytas infra. What steps have been taken to build safeguards for the two thousand Crores given as mobilising advance ? It is well understood that government has a cut in every such deal. Rajiv Gandhi once said that, out of every rupee meant for poor , 15 paisa reaches the poor. In ( political – business ) deals , poor are our politicians and they demand much more than 15 paisa out of every rupee in the name of the party and themselves – They have no shame – Remember Bangaru Laxman ?. How come suddenly a news paper cartoonist like Bal Thackeray and his entire clan run deals worth hundreds of Crores !! A poor man when becomes a saviour of the poor ( read politician ) suddenly becomes rich ?? I recall a quote- A Politician is one, who extracts votes and money from the rich and poor on the pretext of protecting each from the other !!

A few days back, I was talking to one of my friends who has access to the powers at the center. I was shocked to learn , that planning commission does not issue money to the states till there is a guarantee for the portion of the money being returned for fighting elections. If the grapevine is to be believed , this amount per state runs into thousand crore plus !!! That’s why when you complain about corruption , no one listens, as all the powers are deeply involved into it either at the front end or at the backend . Corruption is the politician’s only religion . Corruption is a trickling down process and is like rain water . It comes from the top and not the other way round !

While a lot of people are looking at bringing about a change in the governance of the nation . But trust me , it will not happen soon. Reason is, that there are only less than 5 percent of people who read and get frustrated about the current state of affairs ; unfortunately, they don’t even vote . So frustration alone will not change this system.. Rest 95 percent are victims and partners by force to such an ‘illegal democratic System’. The corruption is “institutionalised business” to such an extent that you and i cannot imagine as honest individuals . A Member of parliament. has to pay for becoming an M.P. then he has to collect the same money ( with returns ) from business houses, IAS & IPS officers in the name of getting things done !! A low level clerk or the hawaldaar / constable has to be pay for his posting and lucrative transfer . At the end , i and you have to pay for all this as bribe. This is my definition of the current democracy – a totally manipulated system by the politicians , for the influential at the cost of the common man.

Those of us who think that we can change it by mere lighting a candle or filing an PIL. Just go and check how many election commissioners , retired judges that have given favourable judgements are in plum postings post retirement ? why did Chief Election Commissioner T.N.Sesan not become a Union minister and Mr.Gill become a union minister ? Why do IPS officers , Judges become governors of states after retirement ? Many such cases exists. Just peep into the past. You might have all answers. Why does the CBI need a permission from the government for prosecuting the officers or M.P.’s ? Simply to delay and bid time . Anyways, an average Indian is so lost in daily chores that he/she doesn’t have time to get ‘involved’ in ‘such issues’ . Votes that the ‘intellectuals’ like us give does not exceed 3 % .Mostly, we don’t even go to vote. Majority of the people who vote for these corrupt politicians decide not on the basis of good governance, but whether his wives get a saree and the family gets a sumptuous meal a few days till the voting day. These are the 600 million innocent and exploited people who for almost next five years after elections will go to bed empty stomach every day. They cannot practice our principles ! And the politicians don’t wish them to prosper . If these 600 million people prosper and come out of poverty, corrupt people like Lalu Yadav, Shibo Soren, Mulayam Singh , Amar Singh, Sharad Pawar and many more would not be rubbing shoulders with Sonia or Manmohan or dreaming to be union ministers !! We all know why Ashwariya got the Padmshri award ? Simply because Amar and his gang have bailed out the congress ? Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi talk about democracy in the nation . If Rahul was not Gandhi would he become the Gen.Secy of the congress so soon ? When the party itself is against democracy and decides the top posts based on sycophancy , favouritism and dictatorship how can it guarantee democracy to the nation ? Why are we getting fooled. I would go to an extent of writing that Manmohan would have been forced for the cardiac surgery . So that if by chance , Congress comes to power. On health grounds , Manmohan can be retired and Rahul can step in to lead the nation to disaster ! Anyways, the Gandhi dynasty has ruled the nation for 90 % of the time since Independence . Earlier , they can be credited with ‘license raj’ and now ‘quota raj’ . Both the steps led them to manipulate and come to power but weakened he nation and divided it . We have gone backward than becoming developed . Elections have never been fought for good governance . It has been fought to stay in power. The priorities are misplaced totally. Last five years into power they had all to develop an indigenous growth model for India . But they went on to build a dollar based economy and gave us recession to live with . What a colossal failure for Sonia , Manmohan and PC !!

Don’t expect the system to change soon . A new cult has to come up from the youth , specially women who will have to lead another mass movement to make it happen. And it cannot happen if you read this and still decide to sit back and go into thinking mode.

We must get up to action .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Email: mail@rajendragupta.org
rajendra.india@gmail.com

Economic forecast for 2009


If the Indian economy grew at 8 -9 % in 2007-8. I must believe that, about half of this came due to intrinsic or local market factors that is about 4 to 4.5 % . So we will continue with that growth with some downward slide in 2009, and also that the remaining half was due to foreign or extrinsic factors. Which i believe, will reduce by a good 50 % . So intrinsic or internal growth will contribute between 3.5 to 4.5 % and remaining 2- 2.5 % will come from the extrinsic factors . So in all , i guess the next year we will witness growth somewhere around 6.0 to 7.0 %. If the World economies shrink badly , which is expected. This might impact this growth a little more and bring it down under 6.0 %

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
http://www.countryfirst.org