Tagged: Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Media Will face a crisis of existence in a decade


The world is going digital, and this is not just about changing reading habits , it is also about the changing business landscape . We need to look at this ‘digitization’ more deeply.

On June 5th 2016, we saw the news that, now the Audit Bureau of Circulations (ABC) — an independent body that provides audited newspaper and magazine circulation — is foraying into the measurement of digital properties, to track audience in the online space.This is going to create the biggest shakeup in the media industry. If people are spending more time online, the money will follow there and so, print media will either have to evolve new business models or face crisis of existence. Also, it means that the advertisement spends will now be in the hands of American giants like Google , Facebook etc. This is cause of serious concern .

Let us look at some more facts about how this evolution is taking place

One of the top global magazines;Newsweek, after 80 years, ended its print edition in Dec 2012. This signaled the direction to where the print media is headed about three years ago

Also, Let us take the case of book stores; Barnes & Nobles, Borders and Amazon. Barnes & Nobles was the largest book store in the world in 1997 (19 years ago) and at one time,Barnes and Noble and Borders controlled 25 % of the book market. But now, Barnes & Nobles (which started in 1886-130 years ago), is making losses and the valuations have dropped to USD 719 million. Also, Borders went out of business last year after being in business for 45 years. Amazon which started as a book store in 1994, 22 years ago, is valued at USD 88 billion. The industry went upside down in the past two decades, and we even don’t need a publisher now…. times are changing andthe message is clear  .

Changing Role of Media – The Political dimension: Media is now not just a platform, it is a tool If you wish to fight an MLA election in Uttar Pradesh next year, you need to have 25000 followers online to seek an election ticket  .

Also, over the past few years, we have seen that the government policies were withdrawn due to the ‘hue and cry’ in social media. So, the online / digital media has a new veto power in politics

Politicians are now reaching out to the audience via twitter and providing relief.The online media is also personalized and interactive, and delivers on the target.This is flipping the power in the hands of the consumer

Social media is very important for politicians as not only,it connects them to their audience, it amplifies their reach, knowledge and impact

Old media could cover news and the new media has the power to create news. This makes it a great tool

My personal experience: How media has changed personally for me?  I stopped reading the print newspapers a few months ago,because;

1. During my travels , the news papers would pile up in my study and it was tough to catch up with the unread newspapers

2. With online newspapers ,I can forward ( email ) or save important news

3. I can read when I am traveling and news from any part of the world in any part of the world

4. Also, it is updated live … I don’t have to wait for my newspaper vendor to come late or bring a wet newspaper during rains,and wait for the magazine to come every fortnight or month, when I need and can read the news instantly

5. I can comment and put forth my views. So, the old media is passive media and the new media is active and interactive …. It makes sense to be using new media. Digital media has an edge over the traditional print media

6. Above all, It is free

The new age mediais bottoms up and not top down. You can ‘buy’ the new age media ..‘Trending’ will size you up  Also, the new media is smaller and crisper. I don’t have to read the entire news, I can read the headline and go into the content based on my interest

I believe that in the next few years, twitter will become a news-channel or newspaper, and so will your TV transition into live app on phone, or Youtube may make way for multiple TV channels.

The media world will change faster than we can think  Media has evolved from being a newsmaker to career maker and a policy maker  The flip side of the new media is same as old age media … it is getting over crowded too fast. Luckily, it is asset-light to withstand balance sheet pressures

Now, the  ‘virtual’ world Is the ‘real world’, and at this time, digital media is complementing the print media but in the near future, it has the potential to replace it, andwe cannot rule out its progression from prominence to dominance in the next few years Digital is successful because of ‘edge’ and not ‘age’ and those who do not take corrective steps, will face a crisis of relevance and existence both

(Rajendra Pratap Gupta is a leading public policy expert. Views are personal ) –

Media will face a crisis of existence in a decade

We are ignoring the signals , and this could be dangerous


On October 11, 2012, i wrote the blog ‘From Emerging to a Submerging Economy’ https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/

I read the story in the Economic Times today, titled ‘Feast of Burden’ ( Page 10, ET dated August 3-9, 2014). It is almost two years since i wrote my blog and this story on corporate debt. Things are still the same , rather have gone worse . For example ,

The cumulative debt of;

  • Tata Group is about Rs. 2.00 lac Crore
  • Reliance ADA Group is about Rs. 83,000 Crore
  • Jaypee Group is about Rs.66,000 Crore
  • Bharti Group is about Rs.60,541 Crore
  • GMR Group is about Rs.37,788 Crore
  • Lanco Group is about 34, 876 Crore
  • HCC is about Rs. 11,150 Crore

I am not mentioning the rest of the groups like ESSAR etc…. Small and mid-size companies would further make the situation scary .

It is time that the Government asked all these companies to come out with a clear statement of how they are going to service these debts, to ensure that these companies do not end up creating a ‘cloud burst’ for the Indian middle class and disturb the economic prospects of this developing country

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

BJP : The Reform Within


BJP : The Reform Within

 

The first reform that the BJP has to undertake is reform within: the way its leaders conduct themselves within the party, in the government and with the public. Leaders would do well to remember that power flows through you and not from you. Politicians tend to forget that the public has chosen them to serve as servants and not as masters, and that the power that flows through them can start flowing through any other leader. See how many cabinet ministers lost, in the 2014 elections.

A minister’s personal assistant complained: “people come from the minister’s constituency, congratulating him for a scheme that is a total failure and no one dares to tell him the truth. He takes the praise at face value and continues to expand the scheme, unaware of the ground level talk’. Be careful of praise and encourage people around you to speak the truth, even if it is unpleasant.

Seek Out Honest Feedback

Ideally, the party should set up an internal team that critically examines the government’s functioning and gives feedback to the party high command before it is too late. Another big problem with the senior party leaders is that they seem to ‘know everything’ and are not interested to listen, but like lecturing.

If this does not change, the leaders don’t learn anything new, but only share what they know. So there is no value addition to their knowledge. Leaders must encourage others to speak and listen carefully. But the public must also realise the importance of the leader’s time and be brief and to the point and speak the truth without caring for the consequences.

Servants, not Masters

All senior leaders and ministers must make it a point to visit the field regularly and that too, unannounced, and spend at least 30 percent of their work time in the field. If the visits are pre-announced, the areas and projects are decked up for the ‘show’ and the reality remains hidden. Surprise visits will reveal the real situation on ground, so that corrective actions can be taken before the media starts the post mortem, and the public sentiment turns to anti-incumbency.

Read as much as you can. A few leaders who have reached the top are voracious readers. ‘A good reader is a good leader’. Leaders must dedicate time daily to reading newspapers and relevant literature and books, to keep themselves updated on what’s going on around them A new breed of leaders are convinced of their own genius and don’t feel the need to consult anyone. In reality, it would be great to bounce new ideas off a senior leader or colleague, to take advantage of their wisdom and experience.

Politicians must be clear on what they want to accomplish in the short, medium and long term and must state their working principles for the team (office staff and bureaucrats), and give them enough freedom to take decisions within the defined framework and evaluate them for their deliverables. It would be a great idea to take the power of saying ‘no’ from the bureaucrats. For saying ‘no’, they should have to take approvals from the immediate senior. This one change will transform the way the government works.

Intent & Will before Vision

Also, it has been seen that the personal staff of ministers tend to be more ‘powerful’ than the ministers, and most of the time, lack basic courtesy while dealing with the public. This must be tackled on priority, as wrong handling can have a cascading negative impact. All politicians know that it is not possible to meet the expectations of every citizen in their constituency, but it is certainly possible to talk to them respectfully, and explain the situation directly, or through staff, if some particular thing cannot be done.

And, don’t work only in the fifth, pre-poll year, but work for all the five years that you have been voted for. A lot of leaders show off their clout by quoting internal discussions of the government or the party in the media. This negates decades of good work and weakens the organisation, and must be avoided at all costs.

People said that Narendra Modi has a vision, but they forget that, before the vision, you need to have the ‘intent’ and the ‘will’, and the vision shapes up automatically. Once you have the vision, you need to implement it, and there is no substitute for hard work. With Modi running the government, leaders will do well to learn and unlearn quickly, so that they deliver on the sky-high expectations set after the 2014 results Well, all the above will naturally happen if you have genuine intent to work for the people.

A lot many people come into politics for power and position but forget that politics is only a platform for serving people The Indian public knows what to do and when! Results of 2009 and 2014 clear any misgivings that our leaders have about the maturity of our voters and the strength of the democratic system and so, don’t forget that ‘prepare and prevent is better than repair and repent’

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

This article appeared in The Economic Times on 26th May , 2014 in the edit page

 

How India can claim being Polio-free ?


Source : http://www.livemint.com/Politics/XS6vPor5jFX3vKkaE7Ri6H/India-to-get-poliofree-status-amid-rise-in-acute-flaccid-pa.html
January 13, 2014
India will on Monday be accorded “polio-free” status by the World Health Organization (WHO), with not a single case of the crippling disease being reported in the past three years, but studies show the alarming rise of another similar paralytic condition that experts suspect may be a result of increased dosage of polio drops.
The last case of polio in the country was reported on 13 January, 2011, from West Bengal. Following the “polio-free” status, India will be certified as a polio-free nation by March, leaving Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria as the remaining polio endemic countries.
India’s dramatic turnout in polio eradication, though, has seen a consistent sidelining of the increasing incidence of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) cases. In the last 13 months, India has reported at least 53,000 cases of NPAFP.
Many health activists say the government, in its rush to get the polio-free certification for the country, ignored the increasing incidence of NPAFP.
Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) is a condition in which a patient suffers from paralysis that results in floppy limbs due to reduced muscle tone. While AFP is symptomatic of polio, it can be caused by other diseases such as the Guillain Barre Syndrome and nerve lesions as well—the primary cause fuelling the argument that India is not really free of wild polio virus.

Highest NPAFP rate

Government surveillance data show that while India is set to be tagged as polio-free, it has actually become the nation with the world’s highest rate of NPAFP incidence.
In the past 13 months, India has reported 53,563 cases of NPAFP at a national rate of 12 per 100,000 children—way above the global benchmark set by WHO of 2 per 100,000. WHO data indicate NPAFP cases have been increasing steadily since 2003, when the number was at 8,000.
In 2004, 12,000 cases of NPAFP were reported in the country, increasing dramatically to 25,000 in 2005. In 2007, the number crossed 40,000 and in 2011 the year India reported its last polio case—nearly 61,000 children were detected to be suffering from NPAFP.
“The increased number of non-polio AFP cases being investigated by the national polio surveillace programme (NPSP) has been due to an increased reporting of AFP cases following deliberate efforts made by the programme to increase the sensitivity of the surveillance system in order to reduce the risk of missing any polio cases,” said Nata Menabde, WHO representative to India. “The intensity of these actions was monitored very closely in UP (Uttar Pradesh) and Bihar—the two traditional polio reservoir states—to ensure no polio cases gets missed in these states,” she added.
Two doctors from Delhi’s St Stephens Hospital, Neetu Vashisht and Jacob Puliyel, who compiled data from the national polio surveillance project, found a link between the increase in dosage of polio vaccination and the increasing cases of NPAFP.
“Most experts will tell you the cases of NPAFP have increased because of better surveillance. This is bunkum,” said Puliyel. “As per global benchmarks, as polio incidence comes down, the rate of NPAFP should also reduce. Instead, AFP cases have been increasing steadily.”
“In 2010, the government reduced the number of pulse polio doses from 10 to 6. What we found was that between 2010-2013, the number of APF cases also came down. Our paper argues that other kinds of polio are being caused by the excessive administration of polio dosages,” Puliyel said. “Another proof is that states like Kerala and Goa, where dosages were less, AFP cases was also less. Majority of NPAFP cases are reported from Bihar and UP, where several immunization rounds are held to reach universal coverage. These are figures the government does not want to admit.”
The health ministry has denied NPAFP is rising, stating that the increasing numbers are indicative of good government surveillance. This, however, does not explain why a majority of the NPAFP cases are found in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. UP and Bihar have an annualized NPAFP rate of 21 per 100,000 children and 34 per 100,000 children, respectively.
“Our surveillance is very sophisticated and the incidence has gone because every case is being picked up. Even at the least bit of suspicion, we report the case because we want to ensure it is not a polio case,” said Anuradha Gupta, additional secretary, health ministry. “One must also keep in mind that AFP can actually result due to various reason other than polio.”

Polio’s global resurgence

“Even if the polio-free certificate was a legitimate success, it is just that—a certificate,” said Deepak Kapoor, head of Rotary International’s national pulse polio committee.
Since 2005, there has been a resurgence of polio in Syria, Egypt, Tajikistan and Israel. So, while India is celebrating the success of its polio campaign, the threat of a resurgence is ongoing and real, Kapoor said.
“This polio-free target was considered impossible a few years ago. Yes, everyone is aware polio is not gone forever, especially because India is yet to achieve 100% immunization and our routine immunization is still poor,” he added.
“Having said that, if India does not report a case until the end of March, South East Asia Region (SEARO) will be polio free and that is something to celebrate. The certificate, however, is a piece of paper. There are huge risks of importation as many countries like Syria, China, etc., have seen before us. We need to guard against that… The best defence is to reach out and immunize every child in India. Supplementary immunization has to be kept up until our routine immunization is up to the mark,” Kapoor said.
Gupta of the health ministry said: “India has become the first country to issue travel advisory concerning importation. Having said that, the WHO certification will not be affected by re-importation as it is about not having indigenous wild polio virus in the environment.”
India’s strategy to maintain its polio-free status involves phasing out the oral polio vaccine (OPV) due to adverse effects. To contain the “wild” polio virus, OPV uses viruses which are “attenuated” but still alive. This weakened version of polio virus activates an immune response in the body.
The India expert advisory group on polio has recommended that the country’s immunization programme switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine and only rely on the oral bivalent variant, reducing chances of vaccine derived polio virus infection. The switch will be accompanied with a booster shot of injectable polio vaccine. The WHO strategic advisory group of experts (SAGE) on immunization has called for a global, coordinated withdrawal of type 2-containing OPV by the end of 2016, and switch to bivalent OPV.
Courtesy: Mint

One chance to change our fate and of our Nation – Vote for India , vote for BJP


Please read this before you think about whom to vote for ?  We cannot afford to experiment with new parties or give another chance to a privately owned political party… We need a party with a proven track record of delivering results , and that is BJP ….

State of the Nation: – A Decade of Decay

Decade under the UPA I & II can rightly be summed in one line, the ‘Decade of Decay’, in which India had a free fall on all fronts – be it economic failure, diplomatic humiliation, failure of foreign policy, intrusions across borders, corruption & scams or crimes against women. There has been gross misuse & total denigration of government & constitutional institutions and this has eroded the office of the Prime Minister. The Government dithered by each passing day, casting gloom and doom on the country that was once under the NDA regime called the ‘Emerging Super Power’. In 2004, NDA left the Government with 8.1 % growth. The UPA could not even maintain that growth and mismanaged the country so badly, that the growth rate declined to 4.8 %, with the nation in a deep mess. We have lost a wonderful opportunity and have pushed the nation 20 years behind and rendered millions jobless and hopeless.

Economy mismanaged

CAD now exceeds even 1990-91 Level – India is revisiting the crisis of 1991.

Between 2001-02 and 2003-04, the nation had a pleasant experience on balance of payments, turning surplus for continuously three years, which was unprecedented after the post-independence period. All the gains of the NDA period have been frittered away in saving the dynasty rule through various election-financing schemes

Debt Trap – A result of Wrong policies

Total public debt on India is Rs 4,606,350 crore, and the debt per capita stands at about Rs 38,000

Rising NPAs – things are going from bad to worse

Economy is slowing down and the banks are under strain. Defaults have led to NPAs almost doubling from the 2009 levels. Rs. 2.43 lac Crore of estimated NPAs are in 40 listed banks as on December 2013. Rs.4.0 Lac crore is the amount of restructured loan under the CDR scheme.

Rupee Downfall

The Indian rupee, which was at par with the American currency at the time of Independence in 1947, has touched its historic record low of below 68.80 against the dollar under the UPA

Jobs – Shrinking job market

The employment generation actually decreased sharply between 2004-05 and 2009-10, especially when compared to the earlier five-year period.

In the five years from 1999-2000 – 2004-05, NDA created 60.7 million new jobs against the 2.76 million new jobs between the years 2004-05 to 2009-10 under the UPA. Now, India is going to lose more jobs in the coming years due to the wrong policies of the UPA

Poverty & illiteracy is the result of Congress misrule

416 million poor, 316 million illiterate & more than 600 million population without toilets sums up the outcome of the economic policies followed by Congress

India continues to be one of the hungriest nations in the world & accounts for 42 per cent of the world’s underweight children.

India’s Human Development Index rank has a negative trend for the time period 2007-12, which indicates deterioration in the indicators determining the Human Development Index.

Inflation: Price rise during the UPA years – Contrary to the Global Phenomenon

Whenever it came to low rate of growth, UPA justified that it was due to global economic situation, but the same cannot be justified for the increasing food prices in India. In November 2013, the Food Prices Index fell by 4.4 % globally, while in India, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was estimated to be close to 20 % in November 2013.

 

On one side, we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low, and on the other side, UPA is groping in the dark for the past decade to find a solution for inflation and deficits. Country’s growth that reached near double-digit due to initiatives of the NDA government has come down to 4.5 %, that too remained because monsoons played a face saver and there was a high growth in agriculture ( 4 %). Year 2013 had an unusually good monsoon favoring a good agricultural yield, but had the monsoons been average, the growth would have been below 3 %. It was the agriculture & not the Government Policies that saved the nation from a collapse!

The State of the Education Sector in India declining

Health and education are defining sectors for equitable human development and sustainable and inclusive economic growth of India.

Despite levying a tax to fund education and enacting a law to ensure access to education for all children between the ages of 6 and 14, the government hasn’t succeeded in improving the learning outcomes in India’s schools, because the UPA thoroughly bungled the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan initiated by the NDA.The quality of learning has either shown no improvement or actually worsened in the nine years of the UPA’s rule

Recognized as a critical element for India’s growth, the UPA government had claimed way back in its first term, that 6% of the GDP would be spent on education, which is a bare minimum for an emerging economy like ours. Nonetheless, the sector still stands at around 4% of the GDP today.

 

It is unfortunate, but the UPA government and the Ministry of Human Resource Development have surely missed the focus on Education and Employment, and the Research & Development expenditure has stagnated under the UPA.

Health care – India’s ticking time bomb

Healthcare is still inaccessible and unaffordable to the masses. Out of pocket spending is still high at 78 %. Goals set forth under NRHM have not been achieved and the scheme has floundered. UPA has failed to deliver health, or healthcare, despite a huge spending.

Agriculture Sector – Farmers and Farming Neglected

Due to lack of investment (both public & private) in agriculture, the share of agriculture in GDP has dropped to less than 15%. UPA has failed to increase investment, productivity & profitability of agriculture, leading to farmer suicides, migration from agriculture and widening the urban-rural divide. The Nation is left at the mercy of rain Gods!

India’s Foreign Policy – Alien to India’s strategic interests!

The past decade has witnessed, a directionless Indian Foreign Policy under the UPA I & II; of alienation and antagonism in relations with South Asian neighbours, & of international humiliation. India has been miserably failing in accomplishing its national interest due to poor diplomacy

Global Competitiveness

India has slipped to 60th position in terms of its competitiveness globally. This is India’s lowest ever rank and also 31 place below its peer emerging market -China. With regards to GCI, India is placed at 60th position out of 148 economies

India is ranked 134th position out of 189 countries in terms of ease of doing business

Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2012 ranked India at 94, out of 176 nations

In the global happiness-ranking list, India stands at rank 111-much after Pakistan (rank: 81) and Bangladesh (108).

Downgrade to downfall !

International rating agencies have been warning that India’s Baa3 rating is in danger of a downgrade, which has vitiated the investment climate. Any further downgrade would club the economy with junk-grade countries.

The fiscal profligacy of the UPA government has put India into a tight corner when it comes to repayment of borrowings. Government bonds worth Rs 1567 billion (Rs 1,56,700 crore) is coming up for redemption in fiscal year 2014-15 & In the fiscal years 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19, government bonds worth Rs 114600 crore, Rs 231200 crore, Rs 256700 crore and Rs 242400 crore are coming up for redemption, respectively.

 

Where is India headed ?

Erosion of moral and societal values and governance

Crimes & corruption are on the rise across the nation and scams have impacted all the sectors like Panchayat, Housing, Education, Health, Agriculture, Mining, telecom etc. No one is untouched from corruption in the UPA regime

 

Corruption has become a part of the daily life. There is hardly any day when we do not come across the cases of flourishing corrupt practices getting exposed in one form or another. The policies of UPA have resulted in fast degradation of moral, societal,and cultural values

Use your right to vote to seek a change for a better India

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Health Care will be transformed when BJP comes to Power


Health Services – increase the Access, improve the quality, lower the Cost

India needs a holistic care system that is universally accessible, affordable and effective and drastically reduces the out of pocket spending on health. NRHM has failed to meet the objectives and will be radically reformed. BJP accords high priority to health sector, which is crucial for securing the economy.

The overarching goal of healthcare would be to provide, ‘Health Assurance to all Indians and to reduce the out of pocket spending on health care’, with the help of state governments.

The current situation calls for radical reforms in the healthcare system with regards to national healthcare programs and delivery, medical education and training and financing of healthcare. Our government would focus on the following reforms in healthcare:

  • the last healthcare policy dates back to 2002. India now needs a comprehensive healthcare policy to address the complex healthcare challenges, keeping in view the developments in the healthcare sector and the changing demographics. BJP will initiate the  New Health Policy.
  • initiate the ‘National Health Assurance Mission’, with a clear mandate to provide universal healthcare that is not only accessible and affordable, but also effective, and reduces the OOP spending for the common man.
  • Education and Training – Will review the role of various professional regulatory bodies in healthcare and consider setting up an overarching lean body for healthcare. High priority will be given to address the shortfall of healthcare professionals.
  • Modernize Government hospitals, upgrading infrastructure and latest technologies.
  • Reorganize Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in order to converge various departments dealing in healthcare, food and nutrition and pharmaceuticals, for effective delivery of healthcare services.
  • Increase the number of medical and para-medical colleges to make India self sufficient in human resources, and set up an AIIMS like institute in every state.
  • Yoga and Ayurveda are the gifts of ancient Indian civilization to humanity and we will increase the public investment to promote Yoga and AYUSH. We will start integrated courses for Indian System of Medicine (ISM) and modern science and Ayurgenomics. We will set up institutions and launch a vigorous program to standardize and validate the Ayurvedic medicine.
  • Move to pre-emptive care model where the focus and thrust will be on child health and prevention.
  • School health program would be a major focus area, and health and hygiene will be made a part of the school curriculum.
  • Focus on Rural Health care delivery.
  • Senior Citizens healthcare would be a special focus area.
  • Give high priority to chronic diseases, and will invest in research and development of solutions for chronic diseases like obesity, diabetes, cancer, CVD etc.
  • Occupational health programs will be pursued aggressively.
  • Utilize the ubiquitous platform of mobile phones for healthcare delivery and set up the “National eHealth Authority” to leverage telemedicine and mobile healthcare for expanding reach and coverage and to define the standards and legal framework for technology driven care.
  • Universalization of emergency medical services-108.
  • Re-orientation of herbal plants board to encourage farming of herbal plants.
  • Population stabilization would be a major thrust area and would be pursued as a mission mode program.
  • Programme for Women Healthcare with emphasis on rural, SC, ST and OBC in a mission mode.
  • Mission mode project to eradicate malnutrition.
  • Launch National Mosquito Control mission.

Poor Hygiene and Sanitation have a far reaching, cascading impact. We will ensure a “Swachh Bharat” by Gandhi ji’s 150th birth anniversary in 2019, taking it up in mission mode by converging resources and building around jan bhagidari:

  • Create an open defecation free India by awareness campaign and enabling people to build toilets in their home as well as in schools and public places.
  • Set up modern, scientific sewage and waste management systems.
  • We will introduce Sanitation Ratings measuring and ranking our cities and towns on ‘sanitation’; and rewarding the best performers.
  • Make potable drinking water available to all thus reducing water–borne diseases, which will automatically translate into Diarrhoea–free India.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Author of BJP Election Manifesto along with Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi

Can you guess the state of India’s economy for 2014 -16 ? Not tough


On 4th June , 2013 , I analysed the data and concluded that the Indian economy would grow below 4 % when most of our economists were speaking of returning to 6-7 % growth in the second half 2013 . https://commonmansblog.com/2013/06/04/the-titanic-is-sinking-can-we-do-something/

Leading global organizations like IMF / OECD have given similar predictions about Indian economy after 4-5 months of my analysis about the Indian economy

The recent reports of IMF on October 9, 2013 cut the India’s growth to 3.8 % in 2013 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-09/news/42864491_1_world-economic-outlook-growth-forecast-global-growth

Also , OECD stated on 19th November, 2013 that India would grow at 3.4 % http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/oecd-cuts-global-growth-forecasts-on-emerging-market-slowdown.html

On one side , we have European Union’s inflation rate declining to a four-year low ( Mint , 16th November, 2013) and UPA is still groping in the dark to figure out how to handle inflation , deficits and govern this nation 

To me , the fate of truck operators & tractors companies and not the sensex, is directly related to the fate of the common man & is the right indicator of the nation’s economic health. Trucks are the means for transporting goods and thereby, the correct parameter to judge the movement of economy. Truck operators are exiting truck business ( Mint, 26th November, 2013)., which is an indicator of the negative economic indicators 

Sales of trucks dropped 29% in the first seven months of 2013, and truck sales have been declining for 20 months in a row according to SIAM and the existing truck operators are operating at 40 % of their capacity. Mint dated 26th Nov.

In my view,  this mirrors with the growth slowdown of the economy that was once growing more than 8 % and is now growing around 4.5 % ….. High octane speeches of returning to double-digit growth are fine , but when our markets and rupee move with the news of US quantitative easing , it is good enough of the proof, that the intrinsic strength of this country’s economy is weak and of a lesser weightage than just the good news of foreign markets ( tens of thousands miles away )  or the US quantitative easing !  

Small truck operators which constitute 75 % of the market are worst hit ( Mint , 26th Nov), and this must be good enough to sum up where have these Oxford, World Bank, IMF famed economists taken this country to ? May be, good rains can shower some temporary good news , but in the short-term and middle term , India has more tears to worry for than merry for this years good rains

No wonder, S&P downgraded IDBI bank debt to junk status . (Nov 26, 2013). More banks are under strain, but I believe that they would not declare NPAs before the next financial year to avoid disclosures that could add to their and the country’s woes !