Recently , very few people noticed a four line news that , Moody’s Investor Service downgraded the so-called financial strengths ratings and the baseline credit assessments of;
1. Bank of Baroda
2. Canara Bank
3. Punjab National Bank
The outlook on Union Bank of India has also been changed to negative .
This is the first indicator of ‘Gloom & Doom’ that is set to hit the economy soon. Somehow , India has missed the recession in 2008 , but India will now enter into recessionary phase that is likely to last between 3 -6 years .
Somehow , the investments that came due to ‘overselling’ the India story like the SEZs, power plants , airports are fading off and most of the infrastructure companies are under a huge pile of debt. More NPAs and job losses will follow .
I see that not a single politician or an economist can put his head out and speak the truth that India is hitting a phase of recession ( probably , they do not know it , like the American crisis ). From a high of 9 per cent growth , we are already down by 45 % in our GDP growth . How else do we define recession ? Are we already not into a recession with companies laying off people every month and our growth slowing down by 45 % ?
Let us accept the situation and plan now. Else , India will be headed for an unprecedented crisis. I am not more worried with 2014 election as much as the rapidly falling economy . On many occasions ,i have pointed my friends across political parties that they would be better off losing 2014 elections than winning them , as there is enormous crisis to be faced, and a lot of dirty and hard work to be done to reverse the falling fortunes of this country and it is not going to be an easy 2014 for politics and politicians .
Let us consider this situation ;
India needs foreign exchange – USD . This can come due to ;
- Reduced imports
Now , exports might start shrinking or remain the same , so not much can be done on that front .
FDI comes in India for
1. Either setting up manufacturing
2. Investment in corporates / stock markets
All the money that comes in FDI needs to produce profits due to either exports or domestic consumption . Both are not going to happen the way investors look at ROI or IRR on their investments as the local consumption story is missing . India has already passed off 100s of millions of poor as ‘middle income aspirational class wanting to spend’ , and this was the biggest fraud of Sonia & MMS led congress government and 100s of corporates have lost millions of dollars every month and are now exiting India or slowing down
Only way the foreigners can make money is dabbling billions of USD in stock markets . So, now FDI’s constitute 11.2 % of GDP in India (2011-12) , and FIIs can play a spoil sport for Indian Economy and generate a balance of payment crisis in any trading hour !
Also, how i could i miss writing about another direct cash transfer scheme of Congress ! Party has got a new way to make money ‘ CSR spending’ under the new companies act .Now politicians can ask corporates for CSR spending and bang ! You know why this bill got passed so easily. And if i am a corporate and i wish to get a license or avoid something OR seeking favours like Robber Vadra, i will give money under CSR to a politician’s NGO….. Wow , another MNAREGA, NRHM and a wonderful legal cash transfer scheme , So who says that XYZ paid bribes , now you cannot prove it , it was just a CSR spending . So, corporates , what are you waiting for , come buy your Rajya Sabha seat , it just cost 100 crores in CSR spending ! Come and block your seats now , it is election year , and sweet -legal deals available through all state leaders and through various national schemes , we have legalised bribes and you have an option to chose your preferred medium . Hurry, this is the last congress government. Hurry up, come , before we run out of time as Elections are likely in November
BTW, time for any sensible politician to come out with a job creation and wealth generation model for India before thinking of FDI or going back to 9 per cent growth
Earlier we realise , the better it is . India is into a recession now !
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Indian milkman uses oxytocin injection twice a day to extract milk from his cattle.
Greedy dairymen inject cattle with veterinary Oxytocin to produce more milk. It is used to force the cow to give milk even after severe beatings and stress. However, it destroys the cow’s reproductive system and she goes dry in just 3 years. She is then abandoned.
A substantial part of the oxytocin injected into the cow seeps into the milk. It is very harmful for humans who unwittingly are made to consume an artificially created hormone. Humans face all the harmful effects of this drug. Children are most susceptible to its effects (it is known to have caused imbalanced hearing and weak eyesight). Common symptoms are exhaustion and loss of energy. Expecting mothers should avoid milk that may have been adulterated with oxytocin because:
– Oxytocin increases the risk of post-partum hemorrhage
– Individual women may be hypersensitive to oxytocin and it can inhibit breastfeeding.
– Oxytocin seriously affects the growth of hormones, especially in females, because of which minor girls attain early puberty.
Oxytocin is also found in phenomenal proportions in beef and other meat. Over 75% of all beef are known to have high and dangerous level of oxytocin content.
The Government of India has acknowledged the negative effects of oxytocin and has declared it as a scheduled substance.
But why I am trying to teach you veterinary science? You must know that FDI in retail, or selling the stakes in Public sector units ( PSU’s ), the one time sale of spectrum, reducing CRR & Chidambaram’s budget are nothing but a dose of ‘Oxytocin’ to our ‘Gau maa’ – Mother India. We will, for sure, temporarily increase the GDP & show some growth in GDP, but the long-term impact would be painful to our economy. Hope good sense will prevail and we will find ‘sustainable models for rural income and consumption’ & focus on sustainable rural economic model to avoid an overdose of Oxytocin for our economy, which will kill it forever…
Rajendra Pratap Gupta