Category: Uncategorized

Demystifying the Congress Report card


Clueless government

The 3G auction was expected to raise about Rs.32000.00 crore and it raised about Rs.69000.00 crore !! Normally , the statistical error is expected to be + or – 5 % , and that is the standard accepted level of error. If the government’s projections were left behind by a whopping 100 % , what do you call such a government ? Pranab da can rejoice , but not because of his colleagues or his planning !!

Same happens for inflation : Since the UPA government has taken over in May 2009, the inflation has touched double digits , Government talks like an astrologer that the inflation will come down in the next 6 months ( and this has been the talk for the last one year !! ). It does not tell why and how will the inflation come down ? Also, what is the government doing to bring the inflation down ? The government is heavily depending upon the divine intervention ( rain God’s ). When government launched the Maoist offensive , it was clueless that the entire battalion would be wiped off !! It just expressed its regrets !!

All this goof up when our PM is an Economist from Oxford, Home Minister from Harvard and Montek from World Bank  + we have a lot of professors from Cornell etc. ……………….All theory and no practicality !!

Education reforms : How many people in India actually use or even remember the knowledge of what they study from 10th class till their graduation ? I for sure , did not use my B.Sc degree ( except that for some weird reasons , since graduation was the basic requirement , i have done both the B.Sc and B.A. (Hon’s, Social Sciences ) and even M.A. Prev !! ). I talked to a good number of my ‘well placed’ friends, and they had the same response . That that qualifications did not matter or help them professionally . Majority of the Indian population study for the sake of getting degrees which finally , makes them either ‘highly qualified’ or ‘not with relevant experience’ category . We must look at mapping the ‘Knowledge gaps’ and ‘Skill gaps’ and then do the reforms in education . We are just manufacturing Degree holders and not creating any knowledge pool that has monetary value . Some degrees in graduation should be scrapped totally . We are wasting our time & killing our talent !! Time to understand what India needs ? In most of the company boards i sit , i find that my CEO / M.D. is not able to find the right ( competent ) talent at the lowest level for the job ? Because of this , all major companies lose out . On one side , we talk about unemployment and over a billion population , and on the other side , we are having acute shortage of skilled manpower ? Do we need educational reforms or ‘Skill development programs’ ? Countries like Finland , Israel etc with just a population between 5 to 7 million have more productivity per capita (PPC – sorry if you did not hear this word before !! I coined it in Indian  context ) than India . Unless , India addresses PPC in education reforms , churning out more degrees holders will just add to ‘Educated Naxalites’ in the next 5 years

Demystifying BPL or the Below Poverty line : According to Suresh Tendulkar committee report , poverty line for the rural areas is Rs. 15 and Rs. 19 in Urban areas. Whereas , according to Arjun Das Gupta , any one earning less than Rs. 20 per day falls below the poverty line ( Please correct me for my lack of knowledge ) What can you get in Rs. 20 per day per person ( Tea one cup Rs. 2 , Lunch Rs 10 , Tea evening Rs. 2 Dinner Rs. 10 ) This is the cheapest meal option ( Though ,i still have to find a stall that can serve you such cheap meals ).

Also , with this , i must highlight the following daily requirements:

1. Breakfast – 5 Rs.

2. Lunch – 10 Rs.

3. Evening tea and something to eat – 5 Rs.

4. Dinner – 10 Rs.

5. Clean water to drink , and taking care of the basic hygienic – 2 Rs.

6. Clothes to wear with washing Rs. 5 Per day ( atleast 1500 per year – two sets of an upper garment and an under garment and daily washing will need a minimum earning of Rs. 5 day )

7. Healthcare & Savings for unforeseen contingencies ( Rs. 5 per day )

8. Travel for going to take meals or get to work for earning the daily subsistence is not accounted for

9. Shelter to sleep, with bed sheet and seasonal clothing for winter and rain – 5 Rs / day

So, one needs atleast Rs. 37-50 per day to stay alive on the basics necessities of life On what basis the government calculates the PBL .

I think what C.K. Prahalad mentioned as the ‘Fortune at the bottom of pyramid ‘ , i will phrase it as ‘Unfortunate at the bottom of Pyramid’. The government’s basic responsibility is to create ‘Fortunate at the bottom of the pyramid, and than think of Fortunate and the fortune at the bottom of the Pyramid ‘

Our current Prime Minister is a typical case of good brand and poor performance !!

Time to think practically, and work more Dr.Singh  !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: office@rajendragupta.in

Pakistan is a Schizophrenic Nation


Via Email with CC to Rahul Gandhi , Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi & Sonia Gandhi

Dr. Manmohan Singh

Prime Minister

Government of India

New Delhi 110001

Dear Dr.Singh,

This has reference to your initiative of the talks with Pakistan

It is a good thing that the talks will resume . The bigger question is , if this is good for something or good for nothing ?

Put three pre-conditions for the talks to start

  1. 1. Handover Dawood Ibrahim
  2. 2. Maulana Masood Azhar, Jaish-e-Mohammad leader
  3. 3. Hafiz Mohammad Saeed (LeT)

If Pakistan is sincere , it will hand over these three terrorists or else , it will continue its talk , shoot & blame the Taliban policy . And one fine day , we will be shocked to see that Pak nukes will be used against India and we might be wiped out of the map !! Pakistan will just blame the same on Taliban  and express regrets . Above mentioned three Pakistan agents cum terrorists are the key to end Taliban and its activities, and anything less than these three terrorists being handed over to India is a compromise with the security of Indians and underplaying the nuisance value of  Pakistan in future

Please do not take Pakistan on face value . You cannot expect a habitual offender to reform with just a dialogue . Pakistan is a schizophrenic nation

Diplomacy does not work with Pakistan . History has repeated and defeated itself when it comes to Pakistan

Take Pakistan seriously to avoid more troubles . I hope that you might not like to defend another 26/11 in the times ahead .

With best regards

Rajendra

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President

Countryfirst

Email:  President@countryfirst.org

view point


Talks with Pakistan resume

Recently , our economist turned Congress’s Prime Minister announced that the foreign minister level talks will resume with Pakistan . It is quite a shock knowing that Pakistan is not even sparing USA Why will it leave India ? I am worried that one day Pakistan will fire the nukes at India and express a sincere apology stating that Taliban did it and it was not a state sponsored / supported act .  It is high time that India asks Pakistan to hand over its most wanted terrorist Dawood Ibrahim and then starts any talks . This will be the best proof of Pakistan’s commitment to India

IPL :

All those who are looking forward to action on IPL scam are fooling themselves. This issue will die a natural death as lot many senior politicians of all major political parties are involved .

Loss of food grains due to poor storage

Sharad Pawar’s made a statement that India is wasting Rs.58000.00 worth food grains due to poor storage conditions . This is the second term as a Agriculture minister for congress led government . Have they not planned for the same ? Are we hinting something ? It is high time that opposition takes the government to task and arrests this wastage . The government must come clean on this loss to the exchequer and the resultant loss for the public

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Why only seek quotas for Muslims ?


According to the study done by NCAER along with the University of Maryland ,nearly one third of the muslims in the nation live below the poverty line on less than Rs.550 a month,  and those in villages survive on Rs. 338 a month .

Same study also revealed that over 50 % of the Adivasi and 32 of the Dalits are leaving below the poverty despite quotas for over 60 years  .

Mandal battle started and was won on the Gangetic plains , but the reservations have failed to raise the standards and serve its purpose .

Two questions :

Why are the quotas only asked for Muslims even in the recent debate on reservations for Women ?

Have quotas lived upto their expectations ?

Should we not do away with caste or religion based quotas and move to a financial denominator driven reservation system that does not discriminate on the basis of caste but on financial status ?

Time to evolve

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Demystifying FDI


All the major retailers be it Pantaloon , RPG ,Reliance or Bharti . All are shouting from the top of their retail roofs about their demand that India needs to become more liberal and allow Foreign Direct Investment ( FDI ) in retail

Let’s study where retail is,  and why do we need FDI ?

A lot of people jumped into retail around 2000 including Pantaloons, Subhiksha , Vishal , Adani group etc . A few years later, excited by the ‘unsubstantiated reports’ from the top consulting firms about the fantastic retail sector  , every major corporate houses like RPG, TATA , Birla’s and Reliance also joined the bandwagon. It lead to competitive retail . All Retailers were vying for the same space , same people & same vendors for a much higher price . Marketing costs increased but margins decreased .

Finally , everyone in retail burned their fingers and lost hundreds of Crores . A few merged or died a natural death !!

I have written earlier ( in 2007 ) in my column that retail in the current form and format was unviable . We see that , when we look at the closures of stores at all major retailers. I think that the way forward is clear , either you have to get into Hypermarkets or small ( Kirana ) format . There is no place for medium ( so called super market ) retail format . I see that the Indian customer’s fondness for variety and prices coupled with the entertainment options within the retail super space !! No other format except Hypermarket will succeed

Back to my main topic why do we need FDI :

What do retailers need to succeed ?

  • Technical knowhow – This can be had by hiring experienced people from abroad who are happily willing to come and work in India or through the franchising route
  • Vendor or sourcing arrangements – can be done via franchising tie ups
  • Merchandising mix– Actually , this is the least of problems as one can go around and see what all is visible and can be copied
  • Brand value – Franchising tie ups can bring brands like Wal-mart etc
  • Training the retail staff – Can be locally developed in collaboration with international tie ups
  • Money to grow – Here is where the answer lies – Retailers in India are loss making and even if a few who are reporting profits , they have uncertainty over the consistent growth  and profits . Retailers know that, they need to make the best of the opportunity with major foreign retailers entering India. Whenever FDI is allowed , it is a foregone conclusion that major foreign retailers  would either pick up a stake or buy the local retailers out at ‘Decent valuations’ and the promoters will cash out with big bucks .

I do not understand if the retailers are successful , why should they have problems with raising money locally ? Any investor would be keen to invest in a profitable venture or the money can be raised from the stock markets .Rest all can be had as mentioned above via tie up or recruitment of experienced people from abroad

PE / VC’s do not invest in retail as it is not profitable and the successful model is still to be seen. Government must be firm that it will not allow FDI in retail , as it will definitely kill smaller retailers . Government should evaluate what the retailers need and understand their reasons for asking FDI to open in retail sector ?  These ‘failed retailers’ will cash on and exit and the Indian retail scene  with the opening of the  FDI . Indian retail sector will get dominated by biggies in retail like Wal-mart or Carrefour or Tesco’s of the world . I see more deaths in retail in the times ahead.  Indian  retailers have still not figured out a successful retail format and that is the challenge,  and FDI in retail does not have an answer .  Indian government should only allow franchising in retail and nothing else. If retailers want to raise money they must either raise it privately or through the stock market

If we allow FDI in retail at this point , it will be like creating another East India company and India will lose heavily

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

emai: office@rajendragupta.in

Water tanker mafia’s at work


To : Ashok Chavan , Murli Manohar Joshi and Rahul Gandhi via Email

Mumbai under Siege by water mafia

It is quite disappointing to see that every week water pipelines are getting damaged in Mumbai. More people live in Delhi  and water is carried by pipes there as well !!

“In 2007, the ‘redefined’ Delhi urban agglomeration has (a population of) 21.5 million people against 19.3 million in Greater Mumbai. Why do the pipes burst only in Mumbai so frequently, and that too, during the peak demand time  ?

Now the BMC will spend Crores of rupees to repair the pipes . Water tankers ( read water mafia ) will use this opportunity to supply water in the affected areas. Is it not a calculated move by the water dons ?

I suggest that a CBI inquiry be instituted in this matter . It is a 1000 crore scandal with the connivance of local government , BMC &  Water mafia .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: office@rajendragupta.in

Office.rajendra@gmail.com

Growth, Recession & Realities


Dear Blog Readers,
Thanks for your continuous feedback .
I am attempting to address the issues that you have talked about .
Over the last few months, i have been reading a lot about inflation , double digit growth and so on………………..
We need to understand the real issues a little deeper and better if we wish to do something worthwhile for this nation
Consider the following :

A few decades back , government thought that nationalization was in the best interest of this nation and it nationalised the airlines , banks etc…….Now after a few decades , privatization is considered in the best interest of the nation !!!
The government was cursing the huge population in 80”s and termed it as  ‘Population Explosion’ . Now the government is talking of the demographic dividend , because everyone across the world is  talking about the same ! We are having the government that does not have original ideas but have copy cat versions or China inspired & induced growth !
What is the government doing to convert ‘No productivity jobs into low productivity jobs and finally into high productivity jobs’ Every district should focus on productivity  . People do not reason the government and never questions the actions and government even does not know if it is doing the right things .
Look at these facts

Between 2010 and 2020, India will add 120 million people in the ‘working age population’ . It will also add 43 Million senior citizens to its population . Does the  government have a concrete plan to address this ?
If we do not plan for 120 million people that we are adding to the working age population , we will be provoking between 10-30 % of them into naxalites or anti-social elements . Imagine , 12-36 million gun wielding naxalites !!
If there is no growth , it does not lead to poverty . It either leads to ill health  & evil minds . Which is more disastrous than poverty   In the next 10 years , some parts of India will become more developed than they are today. We will become a more materialistic nation in places like Mumbai , Goregaon , Bangalore , Pune etc…………….. Media would have exposed this ‘Have not’s’ to this material world .This will lead to aspirations in youth for a better life style, and with no means to make it to this elite league with legitimate means , the criminal route to making money will lead to more extortion , more drug lords and criminals in politics – GDP growth can be 8.5 % or 10 % but criminal activity will growth much faster under such conditions . There is no doubt on this . India will become a naxalite factory and will surpass Pakistan in producing anti-social elements
GDP attributable to agriculture is de-growing , GDP attributable to services and industry is growing . Agriculture not only supports 57 % of the work force & has low productivity per capita but has to feed the 1.2 Billion population else , we know the triple digit inflation that will strike India by 2050.
Agricultural productivity can go up if we bring down the cost of logistics from the current of 16 %. Worldwide , it is around 9  % …………. Government must plan in detail how to boost the agricultural productivity
We are treading a difficult path and the “demographic dividend will become a ‘demographic disaster’ or the ‘Demographic bomb’.

People with many educational degrees ( Indian experts from USA  recruited by the government as advisors ) are working for people with no degrees (poor population ) . So they do not identify the real problem leave alone addressing the issues . Recently , i have heard about the food coupons being distributed to the BPL families . What a joke ? BPL people do not know how to read and write & also this is bound to be misused ( 10 paisa of every 10 rupees will reach the BPL families )
Few fundamentals have to change .

India has not to change , Indians have to change .

Made in India has to become made in ‘rural India’

We are talking of CSR ( Corporate Social Responsibility ) but what we need is ISR –(Individual’s Social Responsibility )

We are all talking of divestment . The government is looking to raise Rs.40,000.00 crore through divestment but  why is government not looking at investing back 10 % of the divestment money to build another PSU that can yield returns disproportionate on its investments ? How about setting up the Solar Energy Corporation of India or the Hydro Power corporation of India ?  Build them now . Don’t just sell
Governments tax collection targets have been missed by around Rs. 40000 crore, i am sure that divestment target is also going to be missed !! Where will be the GDP deficit be in 2011-12 ?
Indian government has not just to create jobs ( employment ) but also create entrepreneurs . It has to think inside the box only ( forget out of box ). Imagine , if different cities with tourism potential start training tourist guides , taxi drivers and listing  them on a central website . People travelling to these towns can avail the services of the government approved guides at the pre-decided rates & can pay in advance through the website . The money can be transferred electronically directly to the service provider after a referral cut ( government can retail 20 % &  transfer 80 % money). Safety & savings for tourists and income for self employed people .
Back to my favourite recession & India :

Why did recession in the USA / Europe not affect India so much  Or you all believed that government was able to protect India from recession effectively ? Think about this report
Times of India , 17th March 2010. According to the WHO – UNICEF report ,58 % of all the people in the world who defecate in the open are in India . 638 Million people in India have no access to toilets . Will India, with such living conditions ever get effected by recession ? The same government could not control inflation . Imagine how they can control affects of recession – they faked the efforts and impacts and we all believed it like fools !
In 62 years after Independence , we have more than 60 % population having no access to ( toilets ) hygiene , 2/3rd of the population living in absolute poverty , 1/6th of the nation living in naxalites controlled areas . And we are already a “recession proof” India . Entire India has still not felt the impact of growth except a few urban towns , so recession hitting us is a joke ?
By the way , next few days will show India conquering the world as ‘ BHARTI is acquiring an African Telecom Giant’. Read all the headlines …………………………..
While you read these headlines , more than 50 % of India will go to sleep without a meal ………………………..
And also, according to the government , the austerity drive for Indian government  is over & our babu’s and politico’s can fly business class, so finally , India is out of recession & on a high growth phase
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email : Office@rajendragupta.org

Judiciary, Diplomacy and political leadership of the nation will be tested soon


The recent confessions of David Coleman Headley about his involvement in 26/11 proves his guilt . With this ,  India must seek David Coleman Headley and Tahawuur Rana’s extradition for trail in India . Both David & Tahawuur have committed an offence on Indian soil and there is no reason for India to give up the demand . If America does not extradite David Coleman Headley and Tahawuur Rana to India , it would mean the failure of Judiciary, Diplomacy and political leadership in India

India created NIA after 26/11 along with a lot of show biz and media hype to show that India is committed to fight terror. India needs David and Tahawuur more than the nuclear deal from America

I am sure that India will get to try and execute these gruesome offenders soon on Indian soil as per the law of the land .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.org

Vscan – Please do not launch in India


Mr.V Raja,

President -South Asia – GE

Dear Mr. Raja,

Trust this finds you doing good.

This mail is regarding the Vscan product that GE is planning to launch in the Indian market .

I have been always appreciative of the latest technology that GE has brought to the Indian market and helped millions across the nation . GE , under your excellent leadership has also set up the PPP models that are a good start for our healthcare system

I have some serious reservations about this product Vscan & that i must share the concerns with your good selves . In fact , i believe that Vscan is an absolutely fantastic product for the rural masses and for physicians in general, if we are able to prevent the misuse of this wonderful piece of portable technology !!

I might be wrong in my assumption, but this is what i wish to share and humbly submit to your company – GE If Vscan can be used for Sex determination in a handy manner by unscrupulous doctors etc. It will adversely impact the use of this technology and go against the interest of the society .

I might be wrong in my assumptions on the capability of this beautiful device, but this is what i fear will happen and since the device is portable , it can be disastrous for the nation and the female births .

If the Vscan can identify the sex as in the case of the sonography machines , please do not launch the product in India

I hope that you will take this email in the right perspective and do the needful in the larger interest of the society as a responsible corporation

With best regards

Rajendra

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

President & Director

Disease Management Association of India

Mobile: India + 91 9223344542

Budget , Governance & Political leadership


Budget , Governance & Political leadership

Few important points :

Paridhi : Here is the answer on how budget could have been better: Besides ,there are many other points that i have covered based on queries from other Blog subscribers

1. If the budget was not just a statement of account or an announcement . All the investments should be related to quantifiable outcomes

2. What will 37 % investment in infrastructure lead to ? How many jobs ? How much time will it take ? Were there any other opportunities that can have a better ROD ( Return on decision ?? )
3. If the PSU will get divested , what is the return on Divestment (ROD ). When you divest, you are giving away profits to the investor forever . How much profit will we give away because of divestment ? one is the ROD ( Return on divestment ) or the cost of divestment ( COD ) over the next 10 years & the last is the Return on Opportunity loss ( ROOL ) .
4. Every year 3 % of the population ( 30 million ) go below the poverty line due to healthcare costs . Last year due to recession , at least 3 % more would have gone down below the poverty line + 1.55 % annual population growth rate adds another 15.5 million people to India every year . Where does the budget put in place these numbers and the plan to address the needs of additional 75.5 Million people ? . Can we call the current budget without such considerations & provisions an all-inclusive budget ?
5. Budget should also give an account of the last year’s budget versus achievement and also state how many plans have been shelved and what is the amount that has been unused by the various departments . So that we can ensure the sanctity of the budget and the accountability of the people at the helm of affairs
6. On one side we are talking of revenue / budget deficit , on the other side , we have given a 30 year tax holiday to SEZ ? What is the logic ?
7. Over Rs.6 Lac crore worth of Black money is lying in the banks . Government should promise the people that the money will be brought back to the country in the next few years . This should actually cover the revenue deficit
8. The current budget is provoking budget for Naxalites . Naxalites strives on poverty and poverty thrives on poor governance
9. If the government wants to increase spending for employment generation , it must pass a rule that from 2015, any company bidding for government tenders should have a manufacturing base in India to cater to 50 % of the delivery of products and services
from its Indian company . This will fuel large-scale investments and generate phenomenal employment opportunities .
10. The budget must have allocated money for solar energy in Rajasthan and for villages that still do not have electricity
11. Pentakota in Orissa has one school for 40,000. We need one university and 15 -30 schools in that town. Such things should be considered if we talk about all-inclusive growth .
12. It will take 320 years to clear the judicial back log, Every Indian judge has a load of about 2147 cases. This must be addressed or else i might consider becoming a hard core criminal than writing such emails expecting a change . Simply because my case would beyond 2147 and it will never get settled in my lifetime at least !!

India has the biggest problem with the average age of the political leadership that is a big disadvantage seeing the average age of Indians . The ratio’s are out of sync . Age of political leadership should match the national age group . I am totally against reservation that divides the society and the nation. The best thing would be to provide financial and institutional support to those who need and may be get 50 % of the youth in government ( without any reservation )to lead this nation’s political agenda

. RESERVATION PROVES THAT PEOPLE AT THE HELM OF AFFIARS ARE NOT WILLFULLY WANTING TO CHANGE AND NEED LAWS TO ENSURE THAT CHANGE HAPPENS BY FORCE !

WHY RESERVATION FOR WOMEN ? GIVE THEM 50 % TICKETS TO FIGHT ELECTIONS ON YOUR WILL

See the case of 3G spectrum : few questions .

Why are we launching 3G. Can we not move directly to 4G ? Smaller countries like Sri Lanka started 3 G five years ago. Why are we so late ? It could be a better decision to move directly to 4G . Government wants to collect more than Rs.30,000.00 crore. But it has not stated what is the benefit of 3G for the investor over the next 5 years . What is the life cycle (Span )of 3G,  when the 4 G comes , what will the players do then ? This could prove to be very costly and killer for some of the telecom players. India is still a voice driven cell phone market .

2. Why India should have 16 circles . Why not one India . USA has single geography for its mobile user
3. I personally believe that 3 G will hit the telecom companies mercilessly . It might lead to losses and mergers & finally consolidation amongst telecom companies in India

In India , i believe that the basic problem is ‘powerful announcements and powerless execution’

Corruption & leakage is leading to a black money economy : Why it is that giving bribe is a crime ? No one gives bribe willingly . It is only a choice-less option when you are pushed against the wall . We need to encourage people to report bribing . But seems that the current law is to protect and patronizing bribe takers. The law must be amended with a clause that giving bribe is not a crime as long as it is reported with the vigilance authorities after the bribe has met its purpose. This will help ensure that the work will get done and the person taking bribe can be brought to the book. We must encourage people to come out and report without the fear of getting caught and that their genuine work does not stop !

China – India : Politicians in India are trying to ape china . The fact is that, a few decades from now China will be a big economy and an old nation. India is not a big economy now but is a young nation today and we will lose our Future demographic advantage (FAD ), if our politicians do not act with right policies now .

We are a victim of a good government , but poor governance .