Budget 2013-14


I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..

My belief is that in 2013-14;

1. This Government will struggle to revive growth

2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down

3. Manufacturing sector will slow down

4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )

5. Tax collections will go down

6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested

7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections

8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .

Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy

Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Shoot first ( without an aim ) ……principle of the Government


Centre for Participatory Democracy

With the UID scheme involving a Rs 5,000 crore rollout in the initial stage, now, it was felt the proposal be subjected to a more detailed examination by a GoM ! Can you imagine how the public money is being spent without having clarity ?  This is not just a blatant loot of the public money , but a plunder more brutal than what Mughals did !  On one side , we have 300 million starving , one the other side , this Government is throwing away the money on its whims and fancies in the name of a common man ?

The Cabinet discussion on Thursday ( 31st January 2013) revealed that , the ministerial panel was not immune from contradictory and blurred perceptions about Aadhaar, as UID is known, with some ministers saying they had received a card along with a number.

Confusion over whether the unique identity number is a number, a card or both, and concerns over UID and the National Population Register duplicating functions prompted the Cabinet to refer UPA-2’s ambitious project to a group of ministers.

Differences persisted as concern was also expressed over duplication or overlap between the National Population Register (NPR) and the UID. Both processes involve a similar collection of biometric data including iris scans.

And this is being done after spending thousands of crores of the hard-earned money, when we have a dangerous levels of external debt and fiscal deficit ?   Why have we not converted NPR into UID ?

This Government follows the principle ‘Shoot without a target’ in the name of the common man.

Most of the Government schemes have been executed with no end in sight and this is what is faulty with the Government .

Time to question this Government

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.commonmansblog.com

Potato Politics and Commercial Airport in Rae Barielly !


Dear Rahul,

Last week you made a statement that , ‘ 50 grams of potato chip are sold for Rs. 10 , and that this is made from just half potato’ ! Correct ! But again , Rahul don’t forget that the foreign companies no lesser than Wal-Mart ( likes of Pepsico ) are selling these expensive potato chips made from half a potato . So, does it not make more sense to check the growth of MNC retail chains / companies in India, who are buying cheap potato but ‘profiteering’ by selling chips at Rs. 10 per packet and the poor farmer is losing his produce at a throw away price  ?

Also, I wish to draw your attention towards the fact that currently the farmers are paid Rs. 1 per KG. I cannot understand why will ‘Profit & balance sheet obsessed’ Retail chains pay more to these poor farmers !

Simply stating that the middlemen would be removed and so farmers will get more, is a fallacious statement and conveys a lack of your ignorance about the realities. I think your party and Maya ji are fighting in the ‘aerial warfare’ with no touch of realities on the ground

I can clearly see the trick in getting the farmer leader Ajit Singh into Congress. Clearly , he will help you pitch farmers in favor of FDI and also convert a few of them as voters . But these tactics might not work in the long run , hopefully there are millions like myself who know the reality of these old tricks of congress for vote bank politics  !

I read another news that Rae Bareilly will get a commercial airport

Let me enlighten you about the Awadh region where your dad , mom & yourself have fought & won elections for decades

The Awadh region once ruled by nawabs and taluqdars and known as granary of India because of its fertile Gangetic plain. The area has given prime ministers to the country – Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. But most districts are still backward.

Population | 3.654 Cr

Per Capita Income | Rs 13,150.81

Faizabad division | Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Sultanpur, Chhatrapati Shahuji Maharaj Nagar, Barabanki

Devipatan division | Gonda, Balrampur, Shravasti, Bahraich

Kanpur division | Kanpur, Ramabai Nagar, Auraiya, Farrukkhabad, Kannauj, Etawah

Lucknow division | Lakhimpur, Lucknow, Sitapur, Hardoi, Unnao, Rae Bareli

Now here is an interesting fact : Purulia is better off than Rae Bareli and Amethi and this was quoted in this article of Business Standard & Mid-Day. http://www.mid-day.com/poll2009/2009/apr/270409-Purulia-is-better-than-Amethi-Left-tells-Rahul.htm 

Let me walk you through a planning commission report on the per capita domestic product , and the NDP per capita in your family’s constituency.

Net domestic product (total and per capita) 2006-7 as per planning commission, Government of India

 

  At Current Prices At Constant Prices 1999-2000
  Domestic Product (Total) Rs. in CR. Per Capita Domestic Product (Rs.) Domestic Product (Total) (Rs. in Cr.) Per Capita

Domestic Product (Rs.)

Rae Barielly 3288 10361 2489 7844
Sultanpur 3955 11168 3077 8687
         

Source:http://planning.up.nic.in/Annual%20Plan%202010-11%20for%20website/Volume%20-%20I%20(%20Part-II)/Chapter-6.prn.pdf

 So clearly, getting an airport in Rae Barielly is a stupidity of the highest order, and that too, when it is clear that the region is back ward and people can barely survive a year without good rains leave alone travelling by air ! Please read the per capita income and check out if the poor people of that district can even afford the air port taxes leave along the airfare !

 I have visited Amethi and met up with dozens of self-help groups that you have formed in Amethi, and let me tell you that, you are just ‘Using’ the emotions of these poor people for becoming a member of Lok Sabha from Amethi

 While I was travelling to Amethi, none else than your own people (close associates) have informed me that the worst road in India is between Rae Bareilly and Sultanpur. Do I write more!

 Learn from Mr. Vajpayee , who started the Golden Quadrilateral project for the Aam Aaadmi and your government is more interested in airports, so that you can fly directly to Amethi rather than taking the 2 hour road drive to Amethi via Lucknow . You are wasting the hard earned money of common men like myself , who earn by hard work and pay 1/3rd of our income as taxes to the government , and people like you go and throw it for things like building an airport at Rae Barielly !

By the way i could not understand that in the same week you talked about potato being sold at Rs.1 per KG and the other side an Airport in Rae Barielly ?

 Gandhi Dynasty has taken India back ward by at least 30 years , and we need to stop it soon.

 I also don’t understand what is your intent for the so-called ‘Food Security Bill’ and ‘Job Guarantee Bill’. You will give fixed income to people so that they do not have to work and then you guarantee them food ? So it means that people will not have to work and earn the food , and will get it free ? Where will the Rs. 5 lac crore come from for these schemes ?  Will these things take India forward or your party men who will get the ration shops to distribute ( read divert ) grains and sell them to the open market, and finally , the poor Aam Aadmi will be left stranded on the road !

 Wake up Rahul ! Time will never forgive your people, and the elections will decide your fate not this ‘aerial warfare’  .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

www.commonmansblog.com

2011 – Year of Democratic Innovations


Year 2011 – Year of democratic innovations

 

It would be appropriate to call the year 2011, the “Year of Democracy & Democratic innovations”. Year 2011 witnessed the birth of an Idea, which will either take the democracies to a new high or a new low depending how the weapon is used. This year (2011) was certainly of political innovations driven by grass-roots and Internet, and has given one lasting lesson to politicians and rulers ‘ If you have a responsibility, behave responsibly’.

 

Year 2011 will pass as the most happening year in the history of politics and governance.  We saw how Julian Assange unmasked the United States of America using the power of net, and how the Arab Awakening started on the net and the decades old regimes fell, and How Anna Hazare used the power of media to force the government to accept its demands & commit to change. It is no ordinary feat using the ordinary and every day use mediums to bring about a lasting change. We saw many changes without large-scale wars and bloodshed. It is unbelievable, but it happened, and not just in India but across the World!

 

Back home, this year, we have seen how the fierce standoff between the Government and the ‘Social activists’ / ‘Civil Society Organizations’ moved the ‘Policy Paralysis’ to ‘Parliamentary paralysis’. For sure, It is clear that innovations are not just limited to science labs and companies, but even the small and big democracies are innovating and finding ways to be heard using the power of low-cost mediums and issues that affect the ‘Common Man’.  The ‘autocratic democracies’ have to learn to accept and function in accordance with the wishes of the people whom they are meant to serve

 

I have always believed that ‘Politicians’ once they acquire the ‘Power’ forget the basic philosophy of governance that ‘ Powers flows through them, and not from them’ and that, they are supposed to be ‘serving’ the people & not ‘Governing them’, using the power to transform lives rather than using their position for ‘I, ME  & MYSELF’

 

So what is in store for politicians and the civil society now?

 

It is clear that the public has a new weapon of mass destruction – Dissidence with Disobedience till things fall in place!

 

We have seen that the Indian Parliament did not function during the monsoon session due to various issues relating to scams and corruption, and now that FDI in retail has become a contentious issue and has brought the government to a halt within the parliament. The UPA government, which was earlier being haunted with ‘Policy Paralysis’, has now turned to ‘Parliamentary Paralysis’ for the nation. It is both good and bad for a democracy. As long as this ‘Tool’ is used for right reasons for the well-being of the masses, it will bring about positive change, and when it becomes a ‘Tool’ to pacify the ‘Ego’ of the opposition parties, this could be the worst weapon to bring down the democratic ethos of any nation. Since FDI, 2 G scam and Lok Pal bills have vast negative ramifications, and so the opposition and the ruling party will get ‘the benefit of doubt’ on this modus operandi, but if the opposition uses the same tool for each and every flimsy issue, then the public will directly answer during the elections. It is clearly being felt that, the public is getting enlightened, and watching the debate and taking a stand and backing it with ‘viral marketing’.  We will see the results much before 2014 and the Grand Finale in 2014.  It is time that those who have responsibility, must act responsibly to take this nation forward.  It goes without saying ‘ You can fool some people all the time, all people some time but not all people all the time’.

 

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

 

Rich get richer and poor get poorer in India – GDP statistics


On 15th June , i wrote on my blog about the topic ‘ High GDP but low GDP per capita’ is like growth without progress and prosperity . Well, i did not know that 11 days after the blog a report would come out that would validate my analysis . Here is the report

According to the 2009 Asia Pacific wealth report , by Capegemini and Merrill Lynch wealth management , India’s high net worth Individuals ( HWNI’s ) are 120,000 ( 0.01 % ) but their combined net worth is close to one third of the India’s GDP

At the peak of recession ,in 2008, India had 84000 HNWI’s with a combined net worth of $310 billion . To put that figure in perspective , it was just under a third of India’s market capitalization , that is, the total value of all companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange – as of end March 2008. The average worth of each HNWI was Rs.16.6 crore .

According to the firm’s 2010 World Wealth Report , India now has 126,700 HNWI’s , an increase of over 50 % over the 2008 number . In 2009 alone , an estimated 13.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty than would have been the case had the 2008 growth rates continued , according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ( UNDESA ). Also, an estimated 33.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty over 2008 and 2009 than would have been poor has the pre-crisis (2004-7 ) growth rates been maintained .

I keep saying that recession or growth that we keep reading in the Times of India or The Economic Times , is only affecting people who read these newspapers. Rest all live under abject poverty .

Read the presentation that i made at the 6th India Innovation Summit on 18th June 2010 at Bangalore . You will see that our demographic dividend is fast becoming demographic disaster !! ( Download the presentation from http://www.rajendra.groupsite.com )

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in