Category: Economy & Recession

Impact of Healthcare Globalization on our Economy


Address as the Session Chairman for Panel Discussion on the topic “Impact of Healthcare Globalization on Economy” at the 3rd International Healthcare Quality Conclave, 31st July, 2010

Good evening friends. I have an Interesting topic for discussion amongst my esteemed & learned panel of experts.

Let me introduce you the expert panel. I have with me, Mr. Rajiv Sharma, CEO, Sterling Hospitals, Dr Anupam Sibal, Group Medical Director, Apollo Hospitals, Mr. Sudhir Bahl, COO, IVEN Medicare India Ltd, Dr. Dharmendra Nagar, Managing Director, and Paras Hospitals

Coming to the topic, I have had a chance to be involved with a few healthcare systems across the world: The largest, over-funded and under-performing healthcare system – US Healthcare system, the government supported UAE healthcare system & the one that is under-funded and under-performing healthcare system – India

What will be the impact of healthcare globalization on the Economy? Firstly, why will the healthcare globalize? And when this happens, what impact will it have on our economy?

My understanding is that the healthcare in the US / Europe has already embraced the ‘Moment of truth’ – that both these systems are not sustainable in the current form. I believe that the solutions for the healthcare problems of the developed world lie in the developing world, and so, healthcare globalization is the only way forward! With private Indian healthcare organizations setting up world class facilities in India, a good number of Indian faculties are headed back home with better environments to work in their very own home country. This will lead to reverse migration.

Also, developed world is facing the problem of high cost and a long waiting period for major interventions. Certainly, Indian healthcare system offers solutions to fill in this need gap with an assurance of world class care. Adding to this is the healthcare insurance products being launched by some insurance companies in the US that will encourage the patients to travel overseas for treatment

Today, US healthcare system is a big talk everywhere as it is 17 % of its GDP. In India, a 1.2 Trillion USD economy, healthcare is 2.91 % of the GDP. This number of 2.91 % of the GDP is too low to impact the economy unless it becomes 2-3 times of its present number.  One of the impacts of healthcare globalization will be that it will increase the healthcare’s share of GDP in India

Recently, we saw a major healthcare group in India bidding for a regional healthcare group.   I can safely bet that the Wal-mart of healthcare will be from India

With Healthcare globalization, the healthcare will improve and impact the healthcare of the common man, and ultimately the productivity of our country’s work force will go up; thereby leading to a more vibrant economy

Overall, the impact of Healthcare globalization in our economy will be felt across sectors as Healthcare is a complex industry with the highest employment potential . Healthcare globalization will positively impact employment across sectors like manufacturing , R & D,  tourism , textiles, hospitality , education , IT, Insurance , BPO , Telecom etc , and so one can easily understand the multiplier effect on the economy in India due to healthcare globalization

We have started the journey for globalization. India has the potential to set India class standards for the world rather than aping the world class standards for India.  We have some great leaders in Healthcare like Dr.Syeda Hameed, and we are sure to reap the benefits that healthcare globalization brings to our economy

So if I were to sum up the impact of the healthcare globalization on our economy, it would:

a)      Reverse brain drain in healthcare

b)      Increase the share of healthcare as a percent of GDP

c)       Create the Wal-mart of healthcare from India

d)      Enhance the productivity of the workforce and make our economy more vibrant

e)      Have a multiplier effect on many sectors of our economy

Thanks for patiently hearing me out. Now let me open the session to our expert’s panel

UID & PDS – Will wipe out each other’s value proposition


I have been seeing that there is a lot of Hype & Hoopla around the fact that UID will weed out corruption , and that the poor will get their share of monthly grain & Kerosene quota

Let’s examine some hard facts :

PDS system runs on corruption , systemic loot and  injustice to the needy card holders. Else, why will a person take a ration shop and run it for distributing sub-standard grains to the poor with so low a margin!!

The margins are barely anything to even recover the rents & other incidental costs !! It is like the fuel stations around the country, the margin of  Rs.1.22 per litre of petrol and .64 Rupee on a litre of diesel is barely anything to cover the bribes to inspection authorities , rents and salaries ( few fuel pumps could be an exemption !! ). But most of the fuel stations run on ‘Adulteration’ & ‘Lesser quantities’ dispensed per every litre of fuel.

So UID has a value proposition which will make the business of PDS ( Ration shops ) business unviable for its licensees.  So while the poor will have UID card , but no shops to dispense the ration !! I am not mentioning about electricity in rural India etc.etc…for reading the UID card and other related issues w.r.t implementation

Also , UID on paper is very good. Believe me,  that about 300 million people in India still think that Indira Gandhi is the Prime Minister of the country !! The reason i write this is, because , parts of our country still live in 1847 ( grossly neglected ), parts live in 1947 ( plans on paper ) and about 300 Million live in 2000 ( have had an impact of ‘time bound’ growth ).

For people who don’t have shelter to sleep , clothes to wear , where will they keep the UID Card ? What will they understand of UID when they cannot even read and write , & when they know that ‘Government establishment’ is meant for either the people in government service or the corrupt !! One must study the ‘High tech’ ideas before taking it to the people who barely have 5-6 meals per week !! Remember , 7000 children die every day due to malnutrition in India

We must also understand that corruption never started because of lack of technology , but because of wrong leadership at the top,  absence of a feedback mechanism & corrupt machinery at all levels, that has never taken action . So i believe that, the powerful people in the rural India will mislead the poor and keep their UID cards or the poor will spoil them due to mishandling of the cards . Also , UID does not have the techniques to turn stock hoarders and swindlers into honest PDS contractors !! Either the rot will continue after the UID or will wipe out the PDS shops by making them non-lucrative businesses .

Time to address the real issues. UID is a good idea , whose time is yet to come !!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Wrong Economic priorities ,lop sided growth & flawed statistics


This is the follow up blog on my views dated 15th June 2010 & 27th June 2010 on the topic of “High GDP but low GDP per capita”.
Focussing on statistics , in April-May 2010, IIP witnessed a decent growth of 14 % but this did not cover some vital sectors . Only one sector , machinery and equipment , alone contributed 37 % to this high growth.  Transport equipment , metal products and mining contributed another 32 % to IIP growth. This implies that around 70 % growth of IIP was a result of high growth in just 4 out of a total of 19 sectors . Also , that these growth rates have an important factor ‘Low base effect’ . Like manufacturing sector achieved one of the highest growth rates of 19.4 % in April 2010 over a low base of 0.4 % in 2009. Similarly,  Capital goods sector’s high growth of 72.8% in April 2010 was over  a negative base of 6 % in 2009.
Time to balance out. Else , we will blame Greece, Italy , Europe , China , poor rainfall etc. Etc. for all our ills, forgetting that we never looked at “REAL India” for growth
Get the priorities right and actions STRAIGHT
BJP must be focussed more on right issues than routine struggles !!
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is already controlled by US / Europe, and now it is Retail Sector’s turn – FDI round the corner


Dear Dr.Joshi,

Namaskaar,

I am sure that this finds you doing good.

Last  year i had detailed discussions with you on FDI and i sent you a note on not opening the retail sector to FDI. Till last year , you were the Chairman, Parliamentary Standing committee on commerce .

This year the issue is out again . It is shocking that UPA is even considering to open the Retail sector for FDI.  Just consider ;

Total retail market is Rs. 1.2 Lac crore. Isn’t that too tempting for recession hit economies like US/ Europe and U.K. to fight recession through markets abroad ? They cleverly call  us as an emerging / developing economy

To foreigners , this is a market but for us (Indians)  it is 40 % of our GDP.  You can expect that in the next few years , a good percentage of 40 % of our GDP will be in the hands of foreigners !!  . We have 15 million retailers , thereby directly employing at least 30 million people and indirectly 6 times more i.e. 90 million .

Only 4 % of our retailers have an area of 500 Sq. Ft.

Food constitute 70 % of our retail trade

The UPA’s discussion paper is a wrong start as it has by-passed the parliamentary standing committee’s report tabled in both houses in June 2009. Consisting of more than 40 Member of parliaments . The committee had taken into account the report submitted by ICRIER

British MP David Amess recently said that the Indian Government to tread”very carefully” if it opened up the multi-brand retail sector to FDI because the entry of companies like UK-based retailer Tesco would”literally change the fabric of life in India” by endangering small shops. Amess chairs the British All Party Parliamentary Group on Small Shops (APPGoSS).

The government is currently holding consultations on allowing companies such as US-based Wal-Mart, France’s Carrefour and Tesco to come in.  Critics have urged the government to insert safety clauses following protests from small independent retailers that potentially face closure.”Britain was a nation of small shopkeepers,” Amess.”All of that has changed and this is because of the supermarkets, led by Tesco. It is impossible for small shop keepers, who have so much to offer, to compete with the prices of the supermarkets”.

APPGoSS Secretary Bob Russell MP, added “the expansion of supermarkets in Britain has been to the serious detriment of small shops, there is no question about this”.

One in six small stores in Britain have gone out of business in the last decade, the group said.

Atul Patel, an Indian origin Briton who runs Pelican News, a small store in North West London. said his family-run business was now struggling to survive, with sales of meat, groceries and fresh fruit having dropped by at least a fifth  after Tesco opened a store hear his.

Largest Indian pharmaceutical companies like Ranbaxy and Nicholas Piramal have already changed hands and are no more with Indians . With the recent acquisition of Piramal with Abbott ,  MNC’s control more than 50 % of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry , and more acquisitions are likely to follow soon.

My personal belief is that, the when the large foreign retailers come in , the fight will not just be between large and small retailers but between  large and medium retailers . Small retailers will die for sure . Needless to mention , when the elephants fight , the grass ( small retailers ) gets trampled !!

Dr. Joshi , please take it up at the appropriate levels .

Recently , it was reported that acute poverty prevails in 8 Indian states ( 421 million people in Bihar , Chhattisgarh , Jharkhand , Madhya Pradesh, Orissa , Rajasthan , Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal which together account for more poor people than in the 26 poorest African nations combined ( 410 Million ), a new ‘multi dimensional’ measure of the global poverty said According to the MPI- Multidimensional Poverty Index , developed and applied by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative with UNDP support

Also, i hear that Economy is growing at approximately 8  %. I need to tell our Dr. Manmohan Singh, the economist that the literal meaning of Economy is “Community’s system of wealth creation” and not just growth of a few sectors, as is in the case of India and we call it Indian Economy ? So Indian “economy” is not growing , but a few sectors that are in a ‘few hands’ are growing !!

Dr.Joshi , you have profound knowledge of each and every aspect of history , culture and wealth creation and distribution , that is even acknowledged by Congress leaders in power.

Let’s work to change all this . I am hoping to meet you soon.

Thanks with best regards

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Business , Politics and reforms – Coincidence or well planned ??


A few months back the RIL had withdrawn the EOU status  ( Export Oriented Unit ) for Jamnagar and the petrol got deregulated !! So that Mukesh bhai can sell oil in domestic market

Mukesh hired the head of Tesco Lotus  and the retail FDI paper is out from DIPP !!

What a coincidence ? No guesses i suppose !

Rajendra

National Council for Human Resources in Health -NCHRH


Date : June 30th , 2010.

Mr. Debasish Panda

Joint Secretary

Ministry of Health & Family Welfare

Government of India

Nirman Bhawan , New Delhi 110108

Ref: D.O. V.11025/10/2009-ME(P-1) dated 8th June 2010

Dear Mr.Panda,

Thanks for the invite for the regional consultation on NCHRH . Unfortunately,  I could not attend the meeting at Mumbai on 18th June due to a prior commitment at Bangalore for the India Innovation Summit on the same date.

I had sent you an email on the NCHRH with two recommendations. Since then, I have dwelled on the issue at length and wish to submit some recommendations for your kind consideration

Before I start on the specific recommendations, let us consider a few important points that need to be kept in mind for the National Council for Human Resources for Health – NCHRH

  • India has 1.2 Billion population out of which about 1/3rd is illiterate population
  • In the next 10 years, India will add 120 million people in the working age category
  • Currently, India has about 2/3rd of the population below 35 years in age
  • Currently , 2/3rd of India lives in rural India and probably, in that category, healthcare does not figure in the list of priorities
  • 2/3rd of India does not have adequate access to healthcare
  • Awareness and sensitization about healthcare is missing . People will go and splurge money on dining outside , but will not spend a fraction in wellness .
  • India believes more on religion , spirituality and charity than wellness
  • Healthcare professionals  available are not willing to work in the so called rural India . At max, they are willing to work in semi urban India
  • The incidence of diseases is not vastly different in rural India from that of urban India for most of the ailments
  • Status of urban poor is deplorable when it comes to healthcare
  • PPP’s in healthcare are not going to work in rural India
  • Those who study for healthcare in urban areas, majority of them are not willing to adjust to the rural lifestyle for professional or family reasons . Gives us a reason to think to start medical colleges in rural settings !!
  • The entire healthcare system is focused on medicine , doctors, clinics and hospitals etc. This has created a fear & suspicion amongst the healthcare users that healthcare means pills, surgery and hospitalization
  • New models of care are evolving for addressing the changing disease patterns and Indian healthcare system is ill prepared to handle the same
  • Time has come to take health ( not medical ! ) education from medical school to primary school. Basic healthcare education should be made compulsory at the school level.
  • 3G has now become a reality , so  mHealth will not just re-define the healthcare delivery but also healthcare education

In short , I would say that , the world over , no healthcare system has answers for our problems, as all the systems are already failed or heading towards a collapse . This provides a unique challenge and an

opportunity to build a robust healthcare system for India that is low cost,  agile ,  protocol driven, and evidence based and not eminence based system; one that avoids errors , trails and wastage . Then only we can have an outcome driven health system that cares !

Here is what I submit for your kind consideration :

NCHRH ( National Council for Human Resources for Health ) has been set up with the goals to overcome the acute shortage and uneven distribution of human resources in public health delivery system & aims at overhauling the current regulatory framework. Toward this end, it is proposed to set up a National Council

for Human Resources for Health as an overarching regulatory body to achieve the objective of enhancing the supply of skilled personnel in the health sector

What I can understand  from the above stated purpose for NCHRH  is that NCHRH will ;

  • Regulate the current set up
  • Identify the current need gap
  • Project the future requirement for the next 10, 20 & 30 years
  • Asses the population mix and the disease patterns and address the issues in a proactive manner
  • Create a resource pool & knowledge pool ( not just impart knowledge but create it as well )
  • Human resources for disaster management in healthcare is missing from the draft that I have gone through . It needs to be incorporated

Health in India has to be looked regionally and planned at the district level: It would be wrong to just limit it to five members headed by a chairman. I would suggest that you must create an “Indian Health & Wellness Service (IHWS )” for the entire nation on the lines of IAS . Today , if I have to complain against deficiency of healthcare services or standards or care at a hospital, there is no grievance redressal mechanism !! Because the system is ambiguous and there is no demarcation for people to look at health and wellness services. For erring police , I can go to SP City , DIG –Range or IGP or the DGP; for an erring postman , I can go to the Post master general etc., and the same for most of the services ; but if there is a deficiency in a hospital service provider where does a common man go ? Another hospital, I suppose !!

So when you are planning for NCHRH , You must consider having an all India service to tackle the multi headed monster called healthcare.

Have separate members in NCHRH, each having a clear role and responsibility for capacity building for the following :

  1. Urban Health
  2. Rural Health
  3. Tribal Health
  4. Health in hilly areas
  5. Health in Armed forces
  6. Health for retired government employees
  7. Health for private sector
  8. Work Place wellness
  9. Healthcare amongst Minorities
  10. Expatriates working in India
  11. Geriatric care in urban & rural health should be handled separately by different members
  12. Split ‘Mother and Child care’ under separate heads, each under a separate member . It is glaring to note that According to International Institute of Population Sciences , Mumbai , 56 % of the Indian women in the age group of 15-49 suffer from anemia
  13. Diabetes
  14. Hypertension
  15. Arthritis
  16. Cancer
  17. Epilepsy
  18. Mental Health
  19. Telehealth should be a strong focus area for Urban & rural health. It should also be a part of the Medical curriculum and a 3 month internship should be made mandatory for telehealth
  20. Medical Education
  21. Home health & care technicians
  22. Healthcare counselors and Physiotherapists
  23. Health administrators for clinics , hospitals other wellness providers
  24. Gyms & Wellness centers
  25. Diet and Nutrition
  26. Acute care
  27. Immunization
  28. Awareness & Education about wellness
  29. Awareness & Education about diseases
  30. NGO’s capacity building
  31. Disaster management in healthcare including outbreaks & epidemics
  32. Epidemiology & research on regional requirements . One example I will quote here. In north eastern part of India , in tea gardens , people take black ( known as red tea in NE ) with salt and so there is a very high incidence of Hypertension and stroke . Same applies to other belts in India which have very specific requirements that cannot be tackled with centralized planning and execution
  33. Technical up-gradation & training of the workforce on latest developments in equipments and technology
  34. CME for each level of workforce
  35. Nurses should be renamed as Physician’s Assistant (PA’s ) or Health & Wellness Officer (HWO’s ) . There should be a plan to create enough specialized resources under this head for rural health, geriatric care , telehealth , chronic diseases etc.  We need not make our healthcare system doctor & hospital centric . The number of PA’s / HWO’s should at least be double of that of the doctors in the next 10 years
  36. For medical education ( all streams ),  behavioral psychology should be added in the curriculum . This is one of the most important change that we need in the medical curriculum . Doctors have just been reduced to diagnosis & prescription machines . Whilst we might be imparting the best of medical knowledge, but  patient care and handling is missing totally from the curriculum . Writing prescriptions does not deliver care . Patient friendly care is a must . Because of the lack of understanding of the behavioral  psychology amongst doctors , the patients fear and suspect the doctors . Even the doctors do not go beyond prescriptions !! This needs an immediate change to ensure compliance and outcome from the treatment , most importantly, regain ‘Trust’ in the system by the users
  37. Put a separate head for innovation in healthcare education
  38. Separate head for guidelines, standards , treatment protocols , assessment & accreditation for each aspect of medical & health education and research

Further , each member should be responsible for research , planning &  execution for his department. It is clear that if we do not plan for human resources , it will not just lead to deficiency in healthcare services but also increase the cost of healthcare . Limited number of healthcare professionals would be available for jobs and that will definitely lead to unrealistic inflation of salaries amongst health professionals

Since this note is about the healthcare in the country , I would also like to add that, we must look at setting up a TAB ( Technology Adoption Board ). India must not import technologies simply because GE / Siemens have

produced it and it is the latest. Technology is one of the major cost drivers for healthcare . TAB must  ensure that the technologies that have demonstrated  positive impact on the treatment compared to its cost and accuracy of diagnosis should only be allowed in practice . In 2007  , a 64 slice CT Scan  was the most advanced , now it is 914 slide CT scan . The question is what is the difference in cost and accuracy of diagnosis compared to the earlier versions ?

Also, MOHFW should set up ICE – Insitute of Clinical Excellence to formulate and work on clinical pathways & protocol based treatment for all major illnesses , so that the doctors do not resort to expensive and arbitrary line of treatment at the cost & care of patient . A protocol based treatment would let all the stake holders in the continuum of care to work in close coordination

Also, the time has come to move to a greener healthcare system. I hope that we will learn from the MEA ( Ministry of External Affairs ). When you apply for a passport , the passport office gives you two or three receipts , one for the passport application fees, second for jumbo passport ( if you opt for ) and a third one for tatkal category ( if you fall under that category) . I fail to understand that, would it not be better to have one receipt with multiple options for ticking !!  It wastes paper , ink and generates three times the heat and noise printing three receipts . MOHFW needs to ensure that we move to a Mobile Health Record system (MHR ) that does not depend on paper . Mobile phones could carry all the records, and more so , when most of the people are likely to carry mobiles. Providers could sync all the medical records with SIM cards. But the success of this depends on the will of the policy makers, honesty and efficiency of implementers ( bureaucrats ) and literacy amongst users

Lastly, it is high time to check migration of our best brains & highly skilled manpower. We can build six AIIMS like buildings, but building institutions will be an onerous task in the current scheme of things, and this could well be the first test for NCHRH.

With some good leaders at the helm of affairs in healthcare , I am quite confident of the changes in healthcare for the benefit of the common man

I do hope that the recommendations are of some help. Incase, you need some clarifications or assistance , I remain at your disposal .

With best wishes

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : President@dmai.org.in

C.C.-

Shri Ghulam Nabi Azad, Union Minister for Health  Family Welfare, Govt. of India

Dr.Syeda Hameed, Member , Planning Commission , Government of India

Shri Dinesh Trivedi, Minister of State for Health , Government of India

Sam Pitroda, Advisor , Prime Minister of India & Chairman, National Knowledge Commission .

Ms.K.Sujatha Rao, Health Secretary, MOHFW, Govt. of India

Dr.K.Srinath Reddy, President , PHFI, Government of India

Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi, MP.

Mrs.Sonia Gandhi , Chairperson ,NAC , UPA.

Rahul Gandhi

Dr.Sharat Chauhan, csharat@ias.nic.in / rshankar50@hotmail.com

Dr.Gautam Sen

Dr.Devi Shetty

Encl: note on healthcare reforms sent on 23rd November 2009.

Rich get richer and poor get poorer in India – GDP statistics


On 15th June , i wrote on my blog about the topic ‘ High GDP but low GDP per capita’ is like growth without progress and prosperity . Well, i did not know that 11 days after the blog a report would come out that would validate my analysis . Here is the report

According to the 2009 Asia Pacific wealth report , by Capegemini and Merrill Lynch wealth management , India’s high net worth Individuals ( HWNI’s ) are 120,000 ( 0.01 % ) but their combined net worth is close to one third of the India’s GDP

At the peak of recession ,in 2008, India had 84000 HNWI’s with a combined net worth of $310 billion . To put that figure in perspective , it was just under a third of India’s market capitalization , that is, the total value of all companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange – as of end March 2008. The average worth of each HNWI was Rs.16.6 crore .

According to the firm’s 2010 World Wealth Report , India now has 126,700 HNWI’s , an increase of over 50 % over the 2008 number . In 2009 alone , an estimated 13.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty than would have been the case had the 2008 growth rates continued , according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ( UNDESA ). Also, an estimated 33.6 million more people in India became poor or remained in poverty over 2008 and 2009 than would have been poor has the pre-crisis (2004-7 ) growth rates been maintained .

I keep saying that recession or growth that we keep reading in the Times of India or The Economic Times , is only affecting people who read these newspapers. Rest all live under abject poverty .

Read the presentation that i made at the 6th India Innovation Summit on 18th June 2010 at Bangalore . You will see that our demographic dividend is fast becoming demographic disaster !! ( Download the presentation from http://www.rajendra.groupsite.com )

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Dr.Bamboo – Tall & impressive but hollow – Dr.Manmohan Singh


I think , Dr. Manmohan Singh is like a Bamboo . Tall & Impressive in stature , but hollow .

See what he is doing  ? All across, the country is failing but his image continues to be a hit !

China has decided to do a nuclear deal with our Pakistan ! India has failed to check it

America is not as friendly with India , as it is with Pakistan

Inflation is going up and the government is clueless

Naxalites control 1/6th of India

This government is a failed government and BJP is not reining in the government ! I fail to understand why BJP is not addressing the important issues !!

Dr. Manmohan Singh is the Bamboo Prime Minister !! Time to raise voice and get the right issues addressed

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

3 G & BWA Auctions – Things could have been done in a better way


Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi

Chairman

Public Accounts Committee

Government of India

6 , Raisena road , New Delhi 110001

Dear Dr.Joshi,

I am sure this finds you fine .It was really nice talking to you yesterday. I wish to submit the following for your kind consideration

Recently , the government has raised Rs. 1.06 Lac Crore from the 3 G & BWA auctions. Though it is a different issue that the government was expecting a modest Rs. 32000.00 Crore from the auction ! The following should be considered

  1. What was the basis of the government’s projections ? Was it a failure on the part of the government that the proceeds of the auctions exceeded by 3 times of the projections from the government ?  This clearly gives a reason to believe that there was a systemic failure on the part of the government and it shows up in government’s failure to arrest price rise ( inflation )
  2. Was the spectrum auction and sale the best option ?
  3. If the government went for a zero price or nominal booking price,  and allotted spectrum for the entire India as one circle with say a 25 % – 30 % of the recurring revenue share from the telecom providers, would it not be better in serving the interest of the government in the long term ? It would have eventually generated much higher return per year and every year rather than one a time high auction fee ! What was the basis of deciding one time auction fee with an expected collection of Rs.32000 crore ?  This money ( Rs.1.06 lac crore ) might give temporary sound bites to Pranab Da ( and the PM ) for no efforts of his or Mr. Raja . But the fact is that , it will put a strain on the telecom companies and will also suck the liquidity from the markets . This will also cause a long term loss to the government as it could have gained immensely , had it gone for a lower or zero initial fee and a larger share in the recurrent revenue from the telecom providers. This is a myopic policy of this government and a big loss to the exchequer
  4. What was the total loss in previous auctions done in arbitrary allocation of telecom spectrum, and what is the progress in the CBI investigation ? Why has the FIR lodged by the CBI not named anyone ? When the senior most minister or the bureaucrat should be named in the FIR , what has prompted the CBI to lodge the FIR against unnamed persons ?
  5. Since Rs.10.6 Lac Crore is already raised through the auctions, i suggest that the government allocates the 10 % the money raised in India Innovation and Entrepreneurship fund to promote innovation and entrepreneurship amongst youth of the nation

I am sure you will take up these matters in appropriate forums . We look at your leadership in addressing some important issues concerning the nation .

With best regards

Rajendra

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: office@rajendragupta.in

Office.rajendra@gmail.com

High GDP but low GDP per capita – Time to give a public explanation – the Congress and the Opposition


If we see , India’s GDP is growing but the majority of the population is not prospering . Why ??

Let us consider this

The quarterly growth report card shows that Mining and Manufacturing contributed between 18-22 % of the GDP  in the Q 1 , 2010 numbers released last week.( Remember mining is concentrated in a few government PSU’s or some mining barons like Reddy’s of Karnataka etc )

Exports are roughly 13  % of the GDP

Agriculture contributes 20 % of the GDP  ( Supporting 60 + % of the population )

My view is that,  the decline in agriculture & growth in mining can be related directly to the growth of Naxalism , as one creates a naxalites and the other nurtures it !!

Rate of growth of yields per unit area in Agriculture  has fallen in:

Food grains from 3.39 % in 1992-93 to 1.39 % in 2001-02

Non-Food grains from 3.19 % to -0.57 %

According to the Economic survey between 1980-81- 2001-02 the capital formation in agriculture has fallen from 3.4 % to 1.3 %

FDI in Agriculture was never encouraged or focussed – Announcements does not matter Dr. Manmohan Singh ji ?

Between 2002-08, population growth has been 1.4 %  and the labour force has been growing at 1.9 %

According to the World Bank Development report

Between 1988 to 2008( 20 years ) as a percentage of GDP the :

Agriculture sector decreased from 30.5 % to 17.3 , whereas 65 % of the population depends on agriculture

Industry grew from 26.2 % to 28.8 % ( Population & people employable has been growing faster )

Manufacturing decreased from 16.2 % to 15.1 %

Services increased from 43.4 % to 54.6 % ( Private sector contributed to this )

Household final consumption expenditure decreased from 65.8 % to 54.1 %

Imports of goods and services increased  from 7.5 % to 28 %

Yesterday , in the Times of India , the Finance Ministry’s chief Economic Advisor said that GDP growth of 8.9 % in the Q 1 of 2010-11 was due to robust growth in capital goods and consumer good production

Does it not look like some Middle eastern countries , where the GDP is very high but GDP per capita is less,  as the high GDP is due to mineral oil wealth , and low GDP per capita is due to the fact that the oil wells are in the hands of a few royal families !! In India , Mining , Exports and trade is in a few hands and the focus , incentive and investment is maximum from the government !! For Agriculture , we all do not depend on the government but on the Rain Gods !!

BJP must act as a responsible opposition . The current state of affairs is not just a failure of the ruling front,  but of the entire opposition . Public demands an explanation from both !

What is government doing ? Bhopal Gas tragedy GOM’s is just an issue to divert the attention from real burning concerns of the public

Politicians are addressing 90 % urgent matters and 10 % important matters.

Time to act responsibly and explain or else both Congress and the opposition would be damned in the next election

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: office@rajendragupta.in