Way forward for India- Declare Pakistan a rogue state


For the last few decades, India has been losing lives, money and economic opportunities due to the terrorist activity emanating from the land of Pakistan. Since , terrorism is not limited by geographies , it is high time, that India initiates a “Global partnership to fight terrorism” . Forms an international coalition of military forces that fights terrorism across borders . Let all countries sign the partnership, contribute to this military force , and let these forces enter any member country, and take all steps to ensure that none of the countries allow its land to be used for terrorist activities. This is the only way to fight terrorism. Am sure that Pakistan will always avoid to join this . This could be done under the auspices of UNO. The burden on individual nations would not be much , but the outcomes would be phenomenal.

Else, there is a more harsh way to deal with it- which we should avoid. Attack Pakistan and countries that indulge in terrorism. If i were the PM , probably , i would have given a 24 hour ultimatum to Pakistan to handover the most wanted terrorists. In case, it failed to do that , i would have bombed Pakistan and taken the India’s political map back to pre 1947 days. Why let our billion population live under constant fear of dying any moment with bullets , when we have already given what Jinnah wanted and shared our culture , people and natural wealth more than 60 years ago. We lost millions then , and we continue to lose now . We have already divided the nation in 1947 based on religion. Why not decide either ways now. If India wants to be secular , it has to be safe or else , let it be a Hindu nation . if that let’s poor Indians to live in peace – We have tried all peace processes , our options are running out ! Why lose lives after lives every day because we have chosen to be a secular nation. Are we paying the price of being a secular nation !! Our politicians should not forget that we are not dying with terrorism but living with terrorism , and that’s more dangerous . We are dying every moment , psychologically. Why ? What is our fault.

In any case, after terrorist attacks in Mumbai, we must snap all ties with Pakistan and declare it a ‘Rogue and Terrorist state’. If we want to have a milder approach . Let it be declared a ‘Terror watch list nation’ and take this issue internationally.

Peace is the first pre-condition to progress and development . How long we will continue to live under the fear of dying with bullets ? Any nation that has the potential to develop and grow exponentially is a victim of terrorism today. I am not too sure who is behind the ‘Terrorism’. But the first suggestion is the most practical .

I want all Indians to not waste any more time . But get organised locally and form chapters to take the nations issues in our hands. It is high time we do it. If we fail to act in the next general elections , we will lose another five years and push India behind by another 30-50 years . Do we have that luxury ? We have a billion + population and majority of them are frustrated with the current system. Let’s change it . It is only in our hands. We have a big responsibility and people have expectations from educated people like us who can use the internet , write and read and connect. Let’s not betray them. More than 99 % of India wants us to bring about the change , do we ditch them ???

You all must be expecting that these politicians will act. No , they will not . Till date, the person who was sentenced to death for attacks on parliament is not hanged. We have politicians who make tall media statements and fail to act where they need to. They want their stupid and ugly face and words to come every now and then on the media …………We cannot be silent spectators anymore . Act now.

Each one of us has the potential to change this moment and this nation. We need to take the first step. The first step is to act immediately and connect with all our friends and start a wave, a moment to redefine the role of each one in building a nation. India has always shown the world the way to learn and lead . We can do it now and you will have to start.

Note this ,

One mind can awaken another, the second can awaken their next-door brother, three awake can awaken the town, by turning the place upside down, and many awake can make such a fuss, that they finally awaken the rest of us. – Helen Kromer

Best ,

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
http://www.countryfirst.org

Indian Economy headed for a severe historic recession


Indian Economy – Getting into worst ever recession ??

It is high time , we acted fast by reducing fuel prices, drastically reducing loan rates and take all possible measures to ease out of a severe recession. Every where, there is a job loss, loss of contract, shrinking consumer spends , production cuts, halting growth plans, adding to this , the recent terror strikes have crippled our already bad travel and aviation sector. We need to convince the consumer that all these steps would be long term. Trust me, we are headed towards a severe recession that will blow out the India story. We don’t need a nuclear deal or a moon mission as a priority today, what We need is ,to keep our feet on our ground. India needs to be pragmatic. This road to recession can be a good turning point for the Indian Economy if used as an opportunity

Why is Indian economy in recession? Indian economy was known as the most intriguing economy for the last three years. There was a lot of hype and hoopla created around the same, everyone wanted to ride the booming India. Some called it the ‘rise of the east’ or ‘a billion under-served customers’. It was the country no one wanted to miss. What happened? What went wrong and why at all?

Firstly, a few things led to a sudden hype. Rise of Infosys and Wipro’s, TATA Tetley acquisition, Arcelor Mittal takeover, Indra Nooyi taking over PepsiCo as CEO, Arun Sarin took over Vodafone etc… This was backed by a lot of media coverage.

Secondly, the triumvirate of Manmohan Singh , P. Chidambaram & Montek Singh talking of a double digit growth excited a lot enthusiasm of politically connected ( and not so politically connected ) business groups to enter into ‘businesses of future’ like infrastructure , power, retail etc… This was based on ‘Big Talk’ of the triumvirate. We all know how many people pumped in money at unrealistic valuations and market was heated up beyond logic, banks were also enjoying the party, share market was expanding like a balloon, manpower was charging anything and still jumping for tempting offers, retail was spotting everywhere. Result: competition became suicidal. Money got pumped into real estate and supply increased and the prices soared. Brands started fighting for space and not profits. Finally, reality was surfacing; growth was not double digits; which the triumvirate shouted for three years. We saw profits were not as projected, corporates were missing numbers, shutting the outlets and man power layoffs. Just forcing Jet airways to take back air hostesses will not cover the reality…………how unfortunate!!!

Thirdly, the ‘Big consulting majors’ were talking in 2007 -8 about the multi-billion dollar markets suddenly growing three fold or four fold by 2012-15. How stupid of CEO’s who believed these news releases of these so called ‘big consulting majors’ and spent millions to buy their reports & finally presented their boards with these rosy projections and raised funds. Now they are shying about the current share prices and valuations (let’s not even talk about growth achievements versus plan or the crazy profits numbers!!!)

All the three factors basically did no good but just created a ‘sexy story’ about a nation like India, where more than 70 % people don’t have access to basic healthcare, only 3 % dabble in stock markets, only 10 towns can boast of a retail revolution, has 36 billionaires and more than 800 million living on about a dollar a day.

Let’s evaluate a little more ……..When people talked of India in 2007 they talked about big IT giants , call centre’s high paying jobs to teen agers, overseas acquisitions of TATA’s & Mittal’s, Mumbai becoming like Shanghai, Big malls coming , dollars flowing as FDI, Big brands coming to India , MNC’s coming to India, ballooning stock markets, BPO’s multi million outsourcing contracts & the great retail revolution. Now with US / Europe in recession and may be, with Barack taking over as the next US President. India will have to take a big hit. We just saw the first wave of negative effects of the US Financial market collapse. India’s stock market crashed almost to a third of its high. With India’s IT / BPO shying and taking to lay off’s, we know the real estate sector would be hit as the entire 2 BHK ( Two bed room , hall & Kitchen ) flat story was built on these young ‘Ripe aged’ employees buying flats at the age of 25-30. Splurging on mobiles and white goods by credit cards …………all this is over (believe me!!)

The hype was more of a story of 36 billionaires , Infosys, TATA, Arcelor, stock market manipulations , FDI and not the story of economic development & and the 800 million population. What we see happening was a foregone conclusion. It was not a ‘bubbling economy’ but an ‘economic bubble’. And it got burst

When the banks started hiring recovery agents, it was the start of the default / delinquency crises (credit card delinquency has gone up to as high as 14 %). Loan defaults would follow shortly and this will be a big blow to the banking / loan system. When the government has to get in to pump in money or the so called confidence, It’s a sure shot sign of crisis or recession or both.

I wish that congress leaders should have thought well before announcing a Rs.60000 crore write off for farmers. This has put a pressure on banks and it will manifest in banking / loan crises. Now imagine, I am a farmer with an Rs.10000 loan for my sister’s marriage or due to a crop failure (trust me, farmers crisis has come due to rise in social costs as much as crop failure). If my loan was waived off what it did to me? Firstly, it gave me nothing to raise a healthy crop and earn for the season so my problem would be standing as such on my head. Has it given me seeds or irrigation which i needed? I could have earned and paid for the loans in the next few years (a moratorium on payments & Interest was more than enough). Moreover, it has set a precedent for me not to pay my loans and hope for future waivers. When politics drives finance, chaos is the only outcome.

Take a cue from USA . They have pumped 700 billion dollars ( India cannot think of even a tenth of this amount in the case of a crises !!! ). This pumping of funds actually helped the banking system in the US and not the economy as people have been made to believe in !

We can knock off any crises if India develops an indigenous model for growth in which technology only becomes the enabler and not the key driver or determinant. What i am pointing is that, we need not depend on FDI totally. When FDI came in, we were roaming the whole world and shouting about it. Now that these economies are under crises, they will take care of their home first, and may even exit from our country as we have seen in the case of FII’s exiting the stock market and leading to a sudden crash. We must have started our economy with 75 % dependence on domestic and 25 % on foreign fund generation besides a host of infrastructure & ground level measures. We need a ‘self reliant India growth model’ and not a USA – Europe dependent-driven growth model. Hope the policy makers will learn from the crises & take steps to correct it.

Now a day’s the most talked about line from the ruling politicians is, that India is fundamentally strong economy. Which ‘Fundamentals’ are they referring to ? Our consumer sentiment is low, stock markets have crashed, industrial production is low , inflation is high, uncertainty is looming over every corporate , retrenchment is happening , rupee is weak against the dollar, farmers that constitute 65-70 % of the population are committing suicides , IT & BPO industry is hit hard due to US –Europe recession, terrorism and lawlessness is rampant. I am still trying to get which fundaments appear to be strong !!! Is it the large suffering population that is being referred to ?

Coming to the most happening sector – The great Indian retail story : I see some retailers having burnt their fingers in metros , now are planning of moving to class II & III towns for the next cycle of growth. Let me express boldly, that this will be a big loss making proposition. In towns like Mumbai and Gurgaon, retailers are having a tough time, how come they will survive in smaller towns with more ‘service class’ & ‘Small time traders’ people. At least , bigger towns have industries and other corporates to support higher spending opportunities. Some learned Advisors have informed these retailers that 70 % of India lives in rural areas so rural India is a bigger market than urban India (calculating that rural India with USD 530 income per capita is three times the population of urban India with the per capita income of USD 1200). What an ‘unintelligent logic’. The 530 USD that the rural India earns is not even enough to spend on basics, unlike urbanites who have the basics already and can afford to spend on the new class of products which supports the modern retail formats. It is analogous to three boys of seven years marrying a girl of eighteen years (3 boys x 7 years = 21 Years, marriageable age!!!). Intelligent logic isn’t!!! That’s what our great retailers are trying to do . Only smart ones are Pantaloon and Wal-mart. Rest all are smart looking idiots !!!

Retailers must realise that they are making investments for 2012-15 market projections. The figures of these projections are not even validated. But the cash burnout is happening now. Imagine this , rentals going up by 5 % every year , salaries by 20-30 % , cash burnout for new openings , increasing offering –SKU’s, reducing margins to attract customers or wash off old inventory. However can a retailer survive ? Adding to this , move to class II towns!!!

Just to make a note that if in towns like Panvel in Navi Mumbai, the two supermarkets owned by Foodland have closed within a year due to opening of ‘MORE’ supermarkets, D’mart & Reliance Fresh stores, how can small kirana stores survive? If i don’t go wrong, even ‘More’ & Reliance will have to shut down in the times to come in the area or make perpetual losses . So the retail story in its current form is not a lasting one. But the lessons are to be learnt . One thing that has happened in India which is totally wrong is that, we have tried to CCP (cut, copy and paste) foreign retailers. But we have missed to note the most important point , that foreign retailers were pretty slow in the first ten years in their country. Even Mukesh Ambani made a strategic mistake; he announced 5 billion dollar investment in retail only to face the back lash from local traders. No one expected seasoned businesses houses to make such tall claims ….This gives us a clear feeling that Indians are unaware and unprepared for the hype that has been created by the media and neither are they guided by the realities . I would call Wal-Mart the smartest retailer in India. They have just done a retail tie up in India without using its brand name . So that the Indian partner has the expense & experience and Wal-mart has the learning’s. Moreover, their growth plans are practical. Just 15 stores now compared to 600 + stores of Reliance and Birla’s. What if the Ambani’s & Birla’s want to change the strategy or make changes backwards because of their learning’s?? It is easier to correct and make changes in 15 stores of Wal-Mart then 600+ stores of Reliance or Birla’s.

We must note:

85 % of the rural India does not have the power to consume very much at the prices that currently prevail in the market.
30 % of urban India constitutes 75 % of the GDP.
70 % of the rural India constitutes 23 % of GDP
According to the Central Statistical organization, in 2001, 48 % of the rural GDP was agricultural.

In 2001, the NDP contributors were: agriculture 46 % , industry 21 % and services 33 %.

If India needs to grow sustainably, we need to make a prudent choice between education, vocational training and SSI. Needless to mention that, India’s growth will be driven by creating more jobs in lowest rungs of the society. They will build the real consumption led growth for a ‘Shining India’. The earlier, the better.

India today is in a recession and we must accept the fact. By closing our eyes the problems will still remain. We must build growth models not based on dollars , stock markets , urban India but go in for holistic models of growth that suit the local conditions and requirements , are broad based for all sections of society and industry , and just don’t reflect isolated figures .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
http://www.countryfirst.org

US economy, Recession , terrorism, Economic fundamentals, Barack Obama, Recession in Indian economy, Terrorism , Curruption.

Mumbai Terror Strike – Root Cause of Terrorism


Misplaced priorities , corruption & lack of public awareness is the root cause of Terrorism

Let’s examine in detail. Our governments and disgraced politicians see vote in every individual and not an individual in every vote. They treat their families as the most important lives and the public as mere statistics. Just try to reason out why politicians are rarely killed ? Because they are heavily guarded and they have the intelligence reports that we know only after the terrorists strike !! Politician’s main goal is to ‘Report progress’, waste public money in press releases for image makeover or getting votes, making money by taking cut in deals or passing orders that benefit the big business houses and moneyed people to further their goals . Clearly the public welfare is not the goal of the politicians . Don’t hope much. If so many ministers have been sacked , it is only because the public anger will cost them votes in the coming elections or these ‘political bastards’ would be standing behind these corrupt or / and inefficient politicians and not dismissing them !!

The Politician- Bureaucrats-Businessmen- religious heads- Criminal nexus is eating the state and good governance in India. Today , all major business houses pay ‘fees’ to solicit political support . Trust me, not a single business house can survive and prosper without political support . All these are nothing but “an all cash deals”. This cash not only fills the political parties coffers but also that of the individual politicians . This money is used to get into power and not the intellectual class votes as many would impress upon us. If a few lakh people light candles and write slogans or shout at Gateway of India . Don’t think it will change the election outcome. As still ,a good 65 % of the rural folks who will be ‘Brought’ by these political parties and directed to stamp the ‘Lotus’ or the ‘Slapping and fearful hand- read congress’. If you want changes , you will have to do a lot more …..That’s why you will find that the public aspirations are never political goals !! There is a clear disconnect. India cannot have an Obama as it is not a ‘Personality’ based political system , it’s a party based political system. Except the ‘Gandhi’ dynasty no one has been able to sustain. There are roads , hospitals and even a Sanjay Gandhi Park in his name . Except being the son of the Prime Minister and a MP for five months ???? Still so many memories in his name ??? What did he do for this nation ?? This is what the World Famous Wikipedia search has in his name .

“Sanjay Gandhi (December 14, 1946 –- June 23, 1980) was an Indian politician, the younger son of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and politician Feroze Gandhi. A controversial figure, he was accused of abuses during the Emergency and died in an aero plane crash shortly after his mother’s return to power. He had been elected to the Parliament of India five months before his death. Sanjay, along with his elder brother Rajiv Gandhi, studied Grades 1 to 6 at the Welham Boys’ School and Grades 7 to 12 at The Doon School in Dehra Dun, as well as in England. Sanjay never attended college, but took up an apprenticeship with Rolls-Royce. He was very interested in sports cars, and he also obtained a pilot’s license. While his elder brother Rajiv was building a career as an airline pilot independent of politics, Sanjay chose to remain close to his mother.”

Not let’s examine the corruption : I had raised an issue against the Mumbai Police Commissioner , A.N.Roy ( Currently , Director General Police , Maharashtra ). He had no option but to suspend the two corrupt police men. Though, there was a lot pressure on myself from him to withdraw the case & i did not . I wrote an open letter to him which was published by the media and he had to bow down. Today, one of the policemen who had taken bribe and has returned it later, and was suspended on those charges, is in the personal security of the Deputy CM , R.R. Patil. Whom public thinks is a damn honesty guy – What a joke !! If he is honest , why the hell did he keep Inspector Raju Mane in his staff ??? A.N.Roy is an inefficient officer and there are ample proofs of his incompetence . When the two police inspectors were suspended on my complaint, a few officers appreciated my courage to fight against their ‘Big Boss ( A.N.Roy was the Mumbai Police commissioner at that time) and they became my friends, and revealed to me in confidence , that there were gangs within the police force affiliated to the likes of Dawood Ibrahim , Chota Rajan and Chota Shakeel etc. And that for killing the rival gang members , the police force is ‘decently paid’ by these gangs. Having a police uniform is just a mere a public eyewash. Now you can understand , why despite the fisherman society’s President telling the Maharashtra police about the imminent terror attacks via Colaba fisherman’s village, the police did not act ? Who wishes to lose the ‘Hefty payments’ from these gangs. If policeman own the best of cars, gadgets and houses- Some of the policemen are owning bars and buildings !! Where does the money come from ??? A few days back , a Police inspector had called me on Diwali to wish me and informed that he was trying to get into Narcotics department . We all know ‘Rave parties’ and the use of drugs !! Now we can understand why all this will not stop.? Police is corrupt from ‘Top’ to ‘Bottom’ and most of the posts are ‘Sold’ rather ‘auctioned’. Get a CBI inquiry and all this will come to light .

Now let’s examine the awareness part. After every terror strike, politicians – officers make a announcement that they had warned months in advance, and they were even aware of the ‘target’. Here is the most important issue. First let’s take the case of the recent Mumbai terrorist strike. A lot of government agencies like RAW etc have given similar statements . When RAW came to know that the sea based attack was to happen at Taj Hotel and Oberoi hotel. For sure, that they did not dream this piece of intelligence . It would have come through some people , credible sources , intercepts. Why the hell these people not get into depth or the details. Suppose , you intercept a call. You can trace the caller and track him down till his location- technology today enables you to do it. The call certainly was between two countries and one of them was probably , India . It was easy to catch the guy in India and interrogate him , the terror strike could not only be averted but also have prevented future strikes . Or when the Colaba fisherman’s association President gave a written complaint to the DGP /CM about the probable terror strike. He must have seen a suspicious ‘Jetties or people coming on boats or talking about the same’. So the terrorists were known to us and no one tried to stop them. Allowing them kill 200+ people. If the police would have acted the very day this complaint was filed by the fisherman. The person who aroused definite suspicions must have been arrested , questioned and the Mumbai terror strike would not have happened.

I must ask you , why do we as public not know about such information in advance ? Why it is limited to the so called National Security Advisor or the Intelligence agencies. After all, we all as ordinary citizens die. Government wants public support ? But they do not want to disclose us about the strikes from terrorists ? We can do a better job than these inefficient police and politicians . Hand over the intelligence reports and we will handle terrorist Mr. Manmohan Singh !!

Role of money and where it comes from ? All builders in Mumbai take a portion of the cost of the flat or House as ‘Cash’. This is shared with BMC – CIDCO – Other approval authorities – underworld . Finally, the money paid to Bureaucrats get’s routed to the concerned politicians and the underworld money may be used in the blasts like the intelligence pointed at the involvement of Dawood’s role in the blasts. No need for a CBI inquiry. Just walk into any builders office . You will have all answers

Irony from the government is, that we still do not have a clearly defined policy against terrorism. We must formalize a policy that, INDIA WILL NOT TOLERATE TERRORISM. WE WILL DO ALL TO KILL ANY TERRORIST ENTERING , LIVING OR LEAVING OUR COUNRY. INDIA WILL NEVER NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISM. A short ,clear and vocal policy against terrorism is an immediate need.

We cannot afford to wait , the media must play an active role and we will fight to win.

The result of writing this : I may die ( Read killed ) in a suspicious manner !! You might act and try and bring about the change that will have a lasting impact on our and the coming generation. ACT , ACT & ACT NOW or you might lie paralysed or dead in the next terrorist strike.

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
http://www.countryfirst.org

Religion or Honesty


No God supports a Religion

Did Jesus build a single church in his lifetime ? Did Ram build a temple ? Did Prophet build a mosque ?

Not a single incarnation of the almighty build a place of worship. We build them after their deaths for meeting our selfish ends and we are reaping the outcomes. All religions and beliefs are meant for guiding our conscience and strengthening it. Not for flaunting it to grab importance , power , positions or property . Today , that’s all we are trying to do by using religion

There are only two religions; man and women and nothing else. There is only one faith , the universal faith of peace , love and forgiveness. No belief tells us to kill or take someone’s life. Infact, all our politicians are totally ignorant of the laws of nature . The day they understand the same , this world will be a much better place to live in and die for.

I hope that we have a divide a digital divide and literacy divide an urban and a rural divide . So that these divides can lead us to equality and progress. Let’s work for it. We don’t need religion, we need honesty with courage and conviction

It’s a call to action

Rajendra Pratap Gupta
President
Countryfirst
Cell : + 91- 9323109456
+ 91- 9867300045
(USA) +1515-450-6165
Skype: rajendra.india
E-Mail: mail@rajendragupta.org / rajendragupta@aol.in
http://www.countryfirst.org