I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..
My belief is that in 2013-14;
1. This Government will struggle to revive growth
2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down
3. Manufacturing sector will slow down
4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )
5. Tax collections will go down
6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested
7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections
8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .
Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy
Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Last week , i was in Delhi and met up with two friends who gave me shocking news .
One friend works as a vendor to Ministry of Defence ( MOD ). He informed that the MOD is not in a position to pay for the orders already placed as there is no money available .Always, MOD was flush with funds , and this is happening for the first time in history
Also, a senior official of the Ministry of Health informed that , they are planning with money ! This means that there is no money with the ministry but meetings with regards to planning are going on
Corroborating these two meetings with RBI’s news ( dated 5th Nov , 2011) that , RBI cannot pay interest on CRR. I am afraid if India has already fallen off the fiscal cliff !
By the way, Indian Government is borrowing at the rate of 1.5 lac rupees per second to run the Government this year . Nothing more to write . I believe that the Government owes an explanation