Tagged: budget 2013

Economy Downgrade and Downfall – Both are a foregone conclusion


Exactly a year ago ( March, 2012), i wrote about the ‘tough times’ India is likely to pass through . Read this link https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/22/have-we-oversold-the-india-story/

Again , six months back ( 11 October , 2012 )  , i wrote that India is heading towards an economic disaster . https://commonmansblog.com/2012/10/11/india-from-emerging-to-a-submerging-economy/
After the recent budget  ,i have expressed my views clearly on the year 2013-14. So far, all predictions have stood the test of time and proved right …..
My last blog was written on 01 March 2013, https://commonmansblog.com/2013/03/01/budget-2013-14/

I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..

My belief is that in 2013-14;

1. This Government will struggle to revive growth

2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down

3. Manufacturing sector will slow down

4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )

5. Tax collections will go down

6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested

7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections

8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .

Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy

Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

www.commonmansblog.com 

 
Today, my friend from the US send me this link http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-headed-for-economic-doom-prominent-US-thinktank-says/articleshow/18772325.cms?. Which talks about ‘India headed for economic doom’ according to a prominent US Think Tank ….. Well, i have said that a year ago with all the supporting data…. and dwelled much more in detail
 
 
This  Government wants to spend more , earn more only on the basis of ‘Hope’, accepting a fiscal deficit of USD 75 Billion ! Which to me, appears to be a foolish and insane ! I have still not got a convincing answer about where this USD 75 Billion dollar will come from ? FDI or FII ? This country ( Economy ) is waiting not just for a downgrade , but for a downfall !
 
UPA – I was a classic case of the Government being ‘Exposed’ to time driven growth , and UPA – II is a unmistaken case of ‘Exposure’ of this failed , clueless & corrupt dynastic Government
We need serious action . Opposition is also on the verge of letting down this nation
Rajendra Pratap Gupta 
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Indian democracy under threat !


A lot is being talked about India being the biggest Democracy . If the elected representatives are not feeling secure enough to discharge their duties , It is time to change the Government that has made India a  soft state , when it comes to handling terrorists and terrorism !

Srinagar, Jan 13 : As many as 28 sarpanches (village council chiefs) and panches (council members) from Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla district Sunday said they had resigned from their posts due to threats to their lives.

A total of 22 sarpanches and panches, from Sopore area of Baramulla, told media persons they were resigning their positions because of threats from separatist militants, while six others from the same area sent their resignation letters to the widely-circulated ‘Greater Kashmir’ daily to be published as paid advertisements in Monday’s issue.

A sarpanch at Bomai village near Sopore town was killed by separatist militants on Friday while another panch, a woman belonging to Harda Shiva village of the same area, was critically injured in another militant attack Saturday.

Doctors in Sopore had referred the injured panch to the super specialty Sher-e-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences Soura (SKIMS) here. Attending doctors say she is still in critical condition.

Panchayat elections were held after 30 years across Jammu and Kashmir in 2011. Despite threats from the separatists, an overwhelming majority of voters turned out in the rural areas to elect their representatives.

Since their elections, thousands of elected village representatives have been seeking security cover. The state government maintains that individual security to every sarpanch and panch is not possible, but individual security to some of them based on threat perceptions was being considered besides domination of areas where guerrillas are still believed to be operating.

 http://www.newsreporter.in/28-village-council-chiefs-members-resign-in-kashmir-48102

Is Indian Government lying to the world about its fiscal condition ?


Last week , i was in Delhi and met up with two friends who gave me shocking news .

One friend works as a vendor to Ministry of Defence ( MOD ). He informed that the MOD is not in a position to pay for the orders already placed as there is no money available .Always, MOD was flush with funds , and this is happening for the first time in history

Also, a senior official of the Ministry of Health informed that , they are planning with money ! This means that there is no money with the ministry but meetings with regards to planning are going on

Corroborating these two meetings with RBI’s news ( dated 5th Nov , 2011)  that , RBI  cannot pay interest on CRR. I am afraid if India has already fallen off the fiscal cliff !

News web link is http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-11-05/news/34925243_1_reserve-ratio-percentage-of-deposits-banks-finance-ministry

By the way, Indian Government is borrowing at the rate of 1.5 lac rupees per second to run the Government this year . Nothing more to write . I believe that the Government owes an explanation