Exactly a year ago ( March, 2012), i wrote about the ‘tough times’ India is likely to pass through . Read this link https://commonmansblog.com/2012/03/22/have-we-oversold-the-india-story/
I am not an economist , so in case, my predictions go wrong ( so far, i have not been wrong on a single occasion ), i do have an option to take refuge in my lack of educational qualifications in the Economic theory unlike the proficient doctors of economics do at PM’s office , Planning Commission & the Finance ministry …..
My belief is that in 2013-14;
1. This Government will struggle to revive growth
2. Inflation ‘might’ ( 50 % chances ) come down a bit , as consumption story of India will go down
3. Manufacturing sector will slow down
4. Fiscal deficit will increase, and might create a balance of payments problem , or the Government will open more avenues for FDI ( or bend to the demands of the industrialists )
5. Tax collections will go down
6. Divestment target will not be met under the current situation unless some more ‘targets’ are divested
7. India might face a ‘security threat’ before the next elections
8. Investor confidence cannot be revived due to ‘Governance deficit’ and ‘Scamful’ Government at the centre .
Also, you can expect this Government to come out with injecting ‘Oxytocin’ in the economy as mentioned in my earlier blog ….. but this will be a short-term story, and will further dent the strength of the economy
Overall, not a good omen for job seekers and this nation . Hopefully, this will be the last budget for Congress
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
India presses the ‘Panic Button’
India needs USD 80 Billion of foreign capital to fund its current account gap. Imagine, finance minister Chidambaram doing a road show in Hong Kong to woo investors! Anand Sharma twisting the rules to get IKEA money & pushing for getting dollar funds via FDI in retail, Pranab shunted to Rashtrapati Bhawan & the Vodafone tax amendment being redone..Do all these not appear as desperate measures? I wrote a few weeks ago, on how the ministries are making plans without money, and this is happening for the first time in history…
If the country has strong fundamentals, why should the finance minster be doing a road show in the first place! The panic does not end here, the budget cuts in important sectors like defense and other social sectors does signal that all is not well within India, and the panic button has already been pressed! We are nearing a ‘Fiscal slide’ & the consequent ‘hard landing’ will be steeper than the ‘fiscal cliff’ of the US. We are back to the 90’s. That time also, on the pressure of IMF, we had to ‘open’ the economy. Now the countries that ‘forced’ India to open the economy are also in the same boat ….So now the veiled threat of down grades.
This Government has not addressed the problems of India, as they have not diagnosed the problem rightly …….Our finance ‘doctors’ are just ‘suppressing the symptoms’ and not trying to ‘address the cause’, & So, the disease will never get cured. More pain in store for the Indian Economy
I hope we do not go the Kingfisher way………….
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
A lot is being talked about India being the biggest Democracy . If the elected representatives are not feeling secure enough to discharge their duties , It is time to change the Government that has made India a soft state , when it comes to handling terrorists and terrorism !
Srinagar, Jan 13 : As many as 28 sarpanches (village council chiefs) and panches (council members) from Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla district Sunday said they had resigned from their posts due to threats to their lives.
A total of 22 sarpanches and panches, from Sopore area of Baramulla, told media persons they were resigning their positions because of threats from separatist militants, while six others from the same area sent their resignation letters to the widely-circulated ‘Greater Kashmir’ daily to be published as paid advertisements in Monday’s issue.
A sarpanch at Bomai village near Sopore town was killed by separatist militants on Friday while another panch, a woman belonging to Harda Shiva village of the same area, was critically injured in another militant attack Saturday.
Doctors in Sopore had referred the injured panch to the super specialty Sher-e-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences Soura (SKIMS) here. Attending doctors say she is still in critical condition.
Panchayat elections were held after 30 years across Jammu and Kashmir in 2011. Despite threats from the separatists, an overwhelming majority of voters turned out in the rural areas to elect their representatives.
Since their elections, thousands of elected village representatives have been seeking security cover. The state government maintains that individual security to every sarpanch and panch is not possible, but individual security to some of them based on threat perceptions was being considered besides domination of areas where guerrillas are still believed to be operating.
Last week , i was in Delhi and met up with two friends who gave me shocking news .
One friend works as a vendor to Ministry of Defence ( MOD ). He informed that the MOD is not in a position to pay for the orders already placed as there is no money available .Always, MOD was flush with funds , and this is happening for the first time in history
Also, a senior official of the Ministry of Health informed that , they are planning with money ! This means that there is no money with the ministry but meetings with regards to planning are going on
Corroborating these two meetings with RBI’s news ( dated 5th Nov , 2011) that , RBI cannot pay interest on CRR. I am afraid if India has already fallen off the fiscal cliff !
By the way, Indian Government is borrowing at the rate of 1.5 lac rupees per second to run the Government this year . Nothing more to write . I believe that the Government owes an explanation