Category: Recession & Solution

2011 – Year of Democratic Innovations


Year 2011 – Year of democratic innovations

 

It would be appropriate to call the year 2011, the “Year of Democracy & Democratic innovations”. Year 2011 witnessed the birth of an Idea, which will either take the democracies to a new high or a new low depending how the weapon is used. This year (2011) was certainly of political innovations driven by grass-roots and Internet, and has given one lasting lesson to politicians and rulers ‘ If you have a responsibility, behave responsibly’.

 

Year 2011 will pass as the most happening year in the history of politics and governance.  We saw how Julian Assange unmasked the United States of America using the power of net, and how the Arab Awakening started on the net and the decades old regimes fell, and How Anna Hazare used the power of media to force the government to accept its demands & commit to change. It is no ordinary feat using the ordinary and every day use mediums to bring about a lasting change. We saw many changes without large-scale wars and bloodshed. It is unbelievable, but it happened, and not just in India but across the World!

 

Back home, this year, we have seen how the fierce standoff between the Government and the ‘Social activists’ / ‘Civil Society Organizations’ moved the ‘Policy Paralysis’ to ‘Parliamentary paralysis’. For sure, It is clear that innovations are not just limited to science labs and companies, but even the small and big democracies are innovating and finding ways to be heard using the power of low-cost mediums and issues that affect the ‘Common Man’.  The ‘autocratic democracies’ have to learn to accept and function in accordance with the wishes of the people whom they are meant to serve

 

I have always believed that ‘Politicians’ once they acquire the ‘Power’ forget the basic philosophy of governance that ‘ Powers flows through them, and not from them’ and that, they are supposed to be ‘serving’ the people & not ‘Governing them’, using the power to transform lives rather than using their position for ‘I, ME  & MYSELF’

 

So what is in store for politicians and the civil society now?

 

It is clear that the public has a new weapon of mass destruction – Dissidence with Disobedience till things fall in place!

 

We have seen that the Indian Parliament did not function during the monsoon session due to various issues relating to scams and corruption, and now that FDI in retail has become a contentious issue and has brought the government to a halt within the parliament. The UPA government, which was earlier being haunted with ‘Policy Paralysis’, has now turned to ‘Parliamentary Paralysis’ for the nation. It is both good and bad for a democracy. As long as this ‘Tool’ is used for right reasons for the well-being of the masses, it will bring about positive change, and when it becomes a ‘Tool’ to pacify the ‘Ego’ of the opposition parties, this could be the worst weapon to bring down the democratic ethos of any nation. Since FDI, 2 G scam and Lok Pal bills have vast negative ramifications, and so the opposition and the ruling party will get ‘the benefit of doubt’ on this modus operandi, but if the opposition uses the same tool for each and every flimsy issue, then the public will directly answer during the elections. It is clearly being felt that, the public is getting enlightened, and watching the debate and taking a stand and backing it with ‘viral marketing’.  We will see the results much before 2014 and the Grand Finale in 2014.  It is time that those who have responsibility, must act responsibly to take this nation forward.  It goes without saying ‘ You can fool some people all the time, all people some time but not all people all the time’.

 

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

 

Post Pone FDI in retail for another five years


Prime Minister Dr. Singh,

Yesterday , I attended the meeting of CAIT ( Confederation of all India Traders ), I felt really bad seeing the plight of the traders, and the hell they would be subjected to , should FDI be allowed in India at this point .

Over the last few months, you have rallied all associated departments and ministries to build a case for FDI in retail. I feel sad that you & your government have ignored the fact , that FDI in retail at this juncture will put a big question mark on the means of livelihoods of over a Crore traders in the country .

I have seen that you / your government has been saying that inflation will come down as Wal-Mart , Carrefour , Tesco’s of the world come to India ( Wal-Mart has already come in few years ago ! ).

Prime Minister , remember, that Inflation has not come down despite Wal-Mart being in India . Your government’s logic that supply chain will get strengthened and prices will fall is fallacious . FDI in retail is a wrong justification for strengthening the supply chain , as FDI in supply chain is already allowed, and a lot of wholesalers are already around and more can come in without needing FDI – Why are you fooling around Manmohan ji ? How low will you stoop now to push to agenda of foreigners !!

Even those who are operating Cash & Carry business , are issuing cards to individuals to buy from them, thereby , stabbing the small retailers . Shut down Cash & Carry immediately after a proper investigation . I go to Sam’s Club in the US ( For your information , Sam’s Club is Wal-Mart’s Cash & Carry Venture in the US). Anyone can buy a card for USD 40 and start buying from Sam’s Club. I have gone twice with my friends to Sam’s club and brought goods from the store , my friends are not retailers , but Indian professionals working in the US . So when these retailers do the same in India , what will we do ???

Your government has failed to understand the cause of inflation , and firstly , you said that recession caused inflation ; then recession got over but inflation did not come down. Then you said that irregular and deficient rainfalls are the cause of inflation. Last year , we had good rains and inflation still did not come down. Realizing that there was no answer with your US educated ( read brain washed ) consultants ( Rajan ,Montek, Kaushik & Sam ) , your government said that inflation was due to high growth and it would continue . Study our next door neighbor – China . They have had high growth with less than 5 % inflation !! All your predictions have failed !!

Also remember dear economist, that ‘inflation is reversible but FDI is not’ . What I mean to say is that , when BJP comes to power, it will bring down inflation , but if you permit FDI ( As your government is hell bent on it ) , we will not be able to reverse FDI . So think before -hand !! Don’t jump like the nuclear deal & do another fiasco !!

Sonia Ji is shouting aloud on NAC podium for poor people on one side, and on the other side , both of you have already done a deal with major international retailers , and are hell bent on cracking the back bone of small retailers by allowing FDI

Government has a flawed policy with regards to FDI, as you are saying that you will allow FDI in top 35 towns to start with. This goes contrary to strengthening the supply chain. If you really want to strengthen the supply chain then please ask this big giants to start retail in ‘C’ class towns and then come to B & A class towns !!

Your statement that farmers will get better value because of FDI in retail : Wal-Mart’s of the world are known for extracting even the ‘blood’ of suppliers !! Their labor policy record needs to be closely examined , and how many times they have been fined !

Also, Wal-Mart is failure in Japan ( social dumping & doubts about its quality ) , Korea ( Wal– Mart failed to understand local customers) , Brazil ( Lack of understanding about local culture ) & Germany ( due to cultural insensitivity ) .

I am producing an excerpt from a report

‘Walmartization does not travel well’ Clearly, neither Wal-Mart’s business concept nor its social dumping – the so-called Walmartization – work in developed economies with a social dimension. Many consumers shun the Bentonville giant and prefer to do their shopping in stores where they know that workers are treated correctly and with dignity. There is also more and more uneasiness and suspicion about many of the products sold. Squeezing the last drop from suppliers can hardly promote safety and quality. There is also a growing aversion against buying, consuming and using products which could well have been made under inhuman conditions. That the tide is fast turning against Wal-Mart at home has not gone unnoticed abroad. Consumers start to know that the retail giant denies its American workers their fundamental rights, and many of them vote with their legs, going to other stores if they have a choice. The poor business results in Germany, Korea and Japan should be taken seriously in Bentonville

Another report : This article appears in the November 21, 2003 issue of Executive Intelligence Review. Wal-Mart Collapses U.S. Cities and Towns by Richard Freeman

During the last 20 years, Wal-Mart has moved into communities and destroyed them, wiping out stores, slashing the tax base, and turning downtown areas into ghost-towns. This is accomplished through Wal-Mart’s policy of paying workers below subsistence wages, and importing goods that have been produced under slave-labor conditions overseas. Often, communities will even give Wal-Mart tax incentives, for the right to be destroyed. Wal-Mart both reflects, and is, a major driving force for America’s deadly implementation of the Imperial Rome model. Unable to produce physical goods to sustain its own existence, the United States, like Rome, sucks in imported goods from around the world, using, in this case, a dollar that is over-valued by 50-60%. America has been transformed from a producer to a consumer society.

I believe that Wal-Mart destroyed American Economy and now it is here to kill ours !! Also, since we know that Wal-Mart is a failure in four countries , please produce a report on those four countries .

Also, let us examine that how many small mom & pop stores have shut down with the advent of Wal-Mart in the United States ? Similar study we must do in China .

Let me also tell you why Biyani’s & Ambani’s of the world are wanting FDI ?

Let me ask these retailers one question ? If the retail trade is so good and profitable , why they have the problem in raising money , investing and growing their business – why do they need foreign investment ? The talk that these MNC retailers bring latest technology is also misleading , as Indian retailers are working in a different environment and all foreign CEO’s have been an utter failure so far in India . You can see the example of Reliance Retail ; How many CEO’s have been brought from outside India in the last four years ? I understand that recently a new CEO was hired from Wal-Mart China !! These traders are actually looking at exiting the business by selling their business to these multinationals to make a quick buck !! That’s the real reason they need FDI .

Once FDI comes , farmers will cry for a good deal and Wal-Mart would never give them a fair deal . On one side , farmers are forced to sell land and other side whatever is left with land & cultivation , they would be forced to sell to these MNC chains at a wafer thin margin .

Congress is a killer party for the poor !! Prime Minister Singh , where is your plan to upgrade the current Kirana stores ? Why are you not excited with their welfare . Give them FDI ( Finance from domestic institutions ) , and provide them training .

I call upon Shri Nitin Gadkari , President BJP to stand behind these standalone Kirana store and oppose FDI . We should post pone FDI for another five years and then revisit the issue. A massive peaceful agitation is called for to stop FDI in Retail for the next five years .

Mail is marked to Montek, Raj Jain of Wal-Mart , CAIT and all leading retailers & political parties in India

A Common Man

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

http://www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com

Let not inefficiency , inflation and corruption get into 2011


Dear Mr. Singh ,

Last year was the worst year of the decade, and perhaps after independence due to your weak leadership as Prime Minister.

I read today in the newspapers that, the food inflation is in double digits , i feel it is not just double digits , but a double blow for the poor or medium class fixed earners, whose salary does not increase with inflation . Think about daily wage earners that earn 40-60 Rs a day and manage their family of four ( two children and parents , though we know that poor people have more than  two children !!) ? Do you not feel the guilt , that you have caused irreparable damage to the nation, and its people both economically , and its image in the eyes of the world ? Today we are called a scam friendly corrupt nation – a nation of scamsters!!

People have got carried away with your degrees, but seeing your miserable performance , i have realised the difference between being educated , being knowledgeable and being wise . You might be educated , but you are definitely not knowledgeable and not at all wise ! A Prime Minister is expected to be Wise and pro-active on important issues . You have built your good image , but ruined the nation’s image !

You and Pranab are fooling the people of this nation by showing 8-9 % GDP growth and a higher forecast . Reality is before us, it is difficult to survive for a common man in today’s time when one cannot get anything done without paying money , when one cannot live within his salary seeing the high price of daily food intake . A big Shame on you both and Sonia !!  With such revolting conditions , i am sure you are working for pushing people to take to Naxalism and crime !!

Two days back i was talking to Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi  and discussing the current developments , and i told him that, Dr.Joshi you could have proved to be a better PM ! Incidentally , there is only one Dr. in Congress and in BJP. In Congress ,It is yourself ,  and Dr.Joshi is the Dr. of BJP. I have had a chance to work with him on several issues , and have seen his grasp of real issues facing the nation,  and no wonder , even you have been high in praise for his abilities as PAC , Chairman, besides, other colleagues in congress . I am sure that he would have proved to be a much better Prime Minister . I cannot comment on others , as i do not know other leaders much .

My humble request Manmohan ji, give Indians a chance to celebrate the new year , Please resign and go ……………we do not want more corruption , more inflation and more GDP !!

We would happily settle for no corruption , low inflation or no inflation and a moderate GDP .

Go now Sir , take rest .Let’s celebrate New Year with a new Hope

Hope this does not fall on deaf ears

Wish you a great year ahead

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : Office@rajendragupta.in

www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com

US increases VISA fees and Bans outsourcing


It is quite natural for any country into recession to resort to protectionists measures. So for sure , that Indian IT / BPO companies will face a flack and lose business . So what to do ? How to counter the threat ?

Improve & increase the current offering , slash prices and force the US firms to come over to you…………..this is the best way for Indian companies to help US based companies to lower costs and increase profits …and ensure that Indian IT companies are more compelling value proposition for US corporations hungry for profits . Let’s see what works better – Business over politics or Politics over business ?

Rajendra

An Open letter to the Prime Minister


13th September 2010

Dr. Manmohan Singh

Prime Minister

Government of India

7, Race Course , New Delhi-110011

An Open letter from a common man

Dear Dr.Singh,

Namaskaar

I wrote you a letter on 14th February this year asking about creating wealth and employment ( available on my blog www.rajendragupta.wordpress.com ). Post that letter , i did hear Pranab da stating that we need to create wealth ……..but as always, i have not seen a concrete action plan post that “loaded statement”

For the past few months , i have been wanting to communicate to you what an ordinary Indian thinks about the current state of affairs, so that you can take appropriate action. Since so many things have happened, i will just randomly start than prioritizing any particular issue

Wastage of Food grains : In India , it has been a tradition of not wasting food on the plate . But we are wasting more than 50000 of tons of food grain and on the other side , we are having unprecedented and unchecked inflation. Conditions are revolting for the common man. If i was born in a deprived family , i would have become a ‘Civilian with a gun, out there to seek revenge’; what you can call as a naxalite !! But i have a very decent corporate job , i live with my family in Mumbai and i have a more sophisticated way to vent my anger with this note ( i presume that is the reason why we say that the Pen is mightier than the sword ! ). Else , for sure , i would be a more dreaded naxalite that Koteshwara Rao !! My social & financial standing prohibit me to think on those lines for moment  …………

Back to the point of the wastage of food grains , i am quite surprised that supreme court ( knowing well , that our courts are the most inefficient & corrupt  ). Still they felt that the government should distribute grains free than letting them rot and even passed an order . Not just the citizens but the court also believes that the government is a laggard when it comes to addressing the issues of the common-man & So it had to pass an order !)

What are the steps you are taking to ensure that this wastage does not happen again ?  Have you taken the FCI & Ministry of agriculture to task for a poor job on forecasting the production , planning storage and facilitating distribution of grains or exporting them rather than letting them rot when the country is facing a double digit inflation ? If i were in your position, i would sack the minister , the secretary of the Ministry & a bunch of senior officials responsible for the criminal waste and start the legal proceedings to penalise them & disqualify them from holding any post ever . So that no one would ever repeat this even for one KG of food grain, leave alone 50,000 tonnes. You seem to be enjoying as a silent spectator !!

Dr.Singh , how would you feel if your children or grand children slept hungry for a few days or just had one meal a day ? Do not forget that , 4 lac of children have their first birthday as their last  & 56 % of the women suffer from anaemia . All this is easily preventable . I wish your children were malnourished and then you became the Prime Minister

Honesty , inefficiency & Corruption : Dr.Singh, i sometimes wonder why people call you honest ! In my view , you are not  honest at all . Yes you might have some integrity ( though you have become morally flexible to a large extent ). Let me quote your silence on ministries handled by Mamta , Lalu, Raja,  Sharad and others……..if you were honest , you would never tolerate their incompetence and corrupt practices ! You are the patron ( rather the Head ) of this gang of inefficient ministers  . CBI has become ‘Congress Blackmail & Bachane ka institution” . When there is a show of strength in Lok Sabha or there is a need for support  , CBI goes to the Supreme court to withdraw cases against Mulayam , Maya and Lalu etc .  Whenever these people take congress to task , CBI starts knocking the door with charge sheets. Which honesty are you talking about Dr.Singh or are you selectively blind ?

Leadership abilities : You had once remarked that the history will judge you & not the opposition . Let me tell you that history would judge you as the most incapable leader who moved with the tide & sometimes it worked ( like in 1990’s ) and most of the time you failed miserably

Your party always projects you as the person who modernized India. Totally wrong !! In 1990’s , you were pushed against the wall with foreign exchange left for just a few days . Dr.Singh, you had no choice but to let the rupee devalue , and let the foreign investors bring money , and that too, was envisioned by PVNR ( who will never get his due share as he is was not from the Gandhi clan !! )

If you are such a great economist ( Look at your team: Finance minister is an economist , Home minister is a past finance minister , Montek is a finance man , In addition to this , you have Kaushik Basu, Raghuram Rajan etc….bunch of economic advisors ) . Then, why the hell are you all floundering !! You are all simply clueless about inflation and its solution!

I heard Pranab da saying yesterday that he was worried with inflation rising again !! He actually meant that he was failing ! I know that sometimes it is hard to put the right words, but public is not a fool Dr.Singh . We can make out what is underneath your statements .

Here is what historians would actually consider while rating you :

  1. Allegiance to the Gandhi clan and not to the nation
  2. Sharm-Al Shaikh & your love for Bush ( the residents of America hated the man and you loved him , i always fail to understand this one )
  3. Double digit Inflation ( You even failed as a astrologer here )
  4. Common Wealth Games fiasco
  5. Kashmir violence ( Worst thing to imagine is that house wives are on the streets pelting stones & Omar & you are on the same boat !! )
  6. Naxalites
  7. Relations with China ( Visa row clearly indicates that relations are at an all time low )
  8. US sanctions against outsourcing and increasing the VISA fees ( you just get flattered by Barack’s calling you ‘Guru’ , and you have gone overboard to get the nuclear deal through . Look at India’s past, and you will see that whenever India has faced sanctions , India has come out with its innovative research and developed the capabilities . Agni & Chandrayaan were built by Indian scientists. I don’t think that we should have surrendered our ‘Nuclear Sovereignty’ by signing the nuclear deal with a lot of riders and opening our sites for inspection to foreign powers …..You have let us down & undermined the capability of our scientists Dr.Singh ! Long term prospects of India of being the nuclear giant is gone with the deal . Without the deal , we could have taken longer but become stronger
  9. Relations with Pakistan , Nepal & Sri Lanka have gone at an all time low during your regime
  10. Farmers suicides are a blot to this nation
  11. Andhra Violence
  12. You are the only Prime Minister who has appointed & tolerated incompetent & disobedient ministers like Mamta , Sharad , Raja , Tharoor et al.

Under your Prime Ministership the political health, Social health & Economic health of the nation has touched a new low . I am not a fan of Advani , but when i see what Mani Shanker Aiyer did recently w.r.t. the Common Wealth Games or what Tharoor did a few months back or what Digvijay Singh has been saying about the Home minister or your own M.P’s criticizing the Kapil Sibal or Jagan defying congress and continuing with its Odarpu Yatra , i think Advani was right in saying that you are a weak Prime Minister . This is the worse government we have ever seen . The things have gone so bad that people curse you and your team . Even those who are well to do, are revolting in conscience and criticizing you …………you should be ashamed Dr.Singh  of still sticking in your chair . Media calls you night watch man !! I feel ashamed to mention the language common man uses for you .

Dr.Singh , you represent the ‘political culture’ of this nation . If you are silent ( or helpless  ) seeing  the corruption and inefficiency of the ministers who report into you , how can you expect the citizens of this nation to stand up against corruption and inefficiency ? You are leading by a wrong example . Please change it immediately or do not give talks that calls the people to stand up & raise voice , when you are silent and blind to acts of corruption , inefficiency and nepotism !!

Seeing what you have done , i can put here that you never could become a politician and failed , and also that the professor in you died as you could not convince your colleagues of looking after the nation as per the mandate given to your government .

Every minute you stay in office or every inch you move is financed by my taxes ( read common man’s tax money  ), and i have every right to question you about your indecision and decisions both . Please do not ignore the concerns of the common-man . Change your style of working , make changes in your cabinet , let the corrupt ministers go …….and do not do the mistake to pass off Rahul as a representative of youth for the nation ………He does not represent the youth , he represents the Gandhi’s

I expect you to act on this ……………you already have a detailed note sent out to you on Feb 14th about the steps you could consider to take in the interest of this nation . Else , resign and go. For sure , we will get a better Prime Minister ……..

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email: Office@rajendragupta.in

President@countryfirst.org

Food Inflation – the real issue is of planned production & storage


Pulses – the pulse of the nation : Pre-dominantly , Indians are vegetarians , and so the protein requirements are met through consumption of protein rich – pulses

We have always been worried about high food inflation charging the government for inefficient handling of the prices. Often we quote the high price of pulses . Let’s do a little digging on why pulses cost more when 65 % of our nation is engaged in agriculture ?

Pulses production in India is 12-15 million tonnes , and the requirement is 18-20 million tonnes .  Looks like pulses production have never been planned by the ministry of agriculture or the planning commission ; this is when we have celebrated 63 years of independence recently !!

Second issue is that despite poor production , even storage has not been attended to .

FCI- Food Corporation of India has 60.5 million tonnes of food grains ( all kinds of grains & not just pulses )  . This is good enough of quantity to give 21 KG of grain every month to people below BPL .  Sadly enough , 30 % of the 60.5 Million tonnes gets wasted every year due to storage conditions

Issue is very simple , and the policy makers need to plan production and storage to address the gaps . Once this is done , we should never have issues related to irrational prices of food grains

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Security or Surveillance ?


Since our last major terror strike at Mumbai two years back , one of the major developments have been about security .  I feel strongly that since a lot of VIP’s died at the TAJ Hotel , a lot of ‘high octane’ drama was enacted both in the parliament , media and other public places .

Let’s do a quick check of what happened post our 9/11 ?

Where do we see most of the surveillance ? Airports , stations , five star hotels etc.  I have stayed in Taj Hotels in Bangalore to CROWN plaza in Delhi and many others. I visit a five start hotel every week to meet friends and visitors who stay in such hotels . Here is what i feel about the so called “over hyped’ security

We have been working for the elite who stay in hotels and travel by air . But still , security issues have not been addressed . Let me walk you through the security processes at display in all major locations

  1. You will find a metal detector ( by default ) at all major public places , and it beeps every time you walk past though it . You are required to take out your cell phone , keep it outside and then walk through it . I has asked at a five star hotel security person in Delhi . If my cell phone was having a bomb what can you do ?? You do not even scan it in the metal detector , i have to keep it in the tray outside the metal detector . The poor guy was doing what his security company had told him. He was blank and answerless.
  2. In every airport , the process is the same .
  3. Interestingly , i was at HYATT regency at Mumbai a day before yesterday. A person came , asked my driver to open the door , bonnet etc wiped the steering with a plastic and went back to the machine to read the plastic . Imagine , i was a terrorist , would i not get enough time  ( while the security guy is reading his plastic wipe !! ) to run my vehicle into the hotel and shoot or blast anything i wanted ?  can you call it security ?
  4. In the hotels , well dressed security chaps will say Namaste to you with folded hands , ask you to open the doors or frisk you. No one  even understands what the hell bonnet of the car looks like or does it have a bomb ?  i bet you that even if i carried an explosive , it would get in well past the entry point ! Like a convict who carried a pistol in Delhi court last week despite all the security !!

So the point i am making is that due to this security scare , dogs have got employment  ( my friend who is President with a reputed five star hotel  had once told me,  that these dogs can work with accuracy only when deployed for 20-40 minutes , but they are made to work for hours ).  So the point is that, it is all show of surveillance and not security . Intelligence and pro-activeness is lacking totally in our system. People standing at the security points are ill equipped , and there is no way that these guys can be alive to resist the attack, if terrorists strike !!

Last week , i took the security officer of Mumbai airport to task for allowing the so called VIP vehicles parked at the exit gate no 2. I informed him that the gate no 2 has only pick up and drop and is not meant for parking, and that the VIP parking had been created specifically a few meters away , but our arrogant VIP’s have taken it as their birth right to flash red light beacon  or VIP numbers and park vehicles posing a big security threat to Mumbai airport. I asked Asst. Police Inspector , Mr, Mane why he did not tow the vehicles parked on the gate 2. He was speechless , he tried to explain that the VIP’s don’t listen . There were at least 6 vehicles blocking the exit , and not a single driver was in the car …………….I wrote the same to the Chief Minister and the Home Minister …..i do hope that these guys act before a strike !!

We have as a nation failed before naxalites and we will continue to fail against terrorism , till we address technology proactively and pre-empt strikes . Current vigilance in the name of security is a farce wasting money and delaying the check-in in the hotel & airports

Hope the policy makers take the note and act

I have marked this to our Home Minister

Mumbai airport – A true reflection of India


When you land at Mumbai next time , do peep below to get the aerial view of Mumbai- A true reflection of India .  On one side , you have dozens of aeroplanes , and the other side hundreds of Slums . That’s India .

The government will remove the slums shortly, but the poverty will not go ,it will be shifted from the eyes of the viewer. You will have swanky buildings coming up on the slums- may be a new runway or another terminal etc. So after a few months, if a visitor lands in Mumbai and sees that there are no slums , he or she will imagine India growing much faster , slums disappearing …. Poverty vanishing off fast , faster than China .

Think before you imagine the real India . We are doing cosmetic changes and these do not impact the health of our nation

We need change at the grass roots .

We are still far – far away ………….

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

3G & the high speed downfall of the Telco’s


3 G spectrum has been over-sold . Keeping in mind the fact that,  the average yearly penetration of 3 G users has been highest at 5 % in developed countries like Japan. It took them 7 years to increase the penetration of 3G services to 35 %. India is a country with 150- 220 million middle income people , and not everyone requires 3G !!

In India , do we need high speed internet in our daily lives ? We are pretty okay with Blackberry,  emails and voice calls- Just 70 million internet users !!

Industry has perhaps gone overboard to pay “Obnoxious” sums for 3G spectrum.

To ensure profitability , 3G players will have to invade few sectors to make it viable ( trust me , it is a big challenge for immediate future  ). The sectors that need to be invaded are HEART ( Healthcare , Education & Entertainment , Agriculture ,  Rural India & Travel & Tourism , Telemedicine )

People have wrongly understood the first wave of telecom revolution . The first wave came because of the following

  1. Before the cell phones were launched , getting a land line from the government “monopoly” ( BSNL /MTNL ) was difficult – wait times was uncertain & services pathetic even after bribing the lineman the things would not work !
  2. ‘Rich’ people could afford the luxury of a ‘Cordless’ phone, that would have a coverage of 10 or 20 Feet . Suddenly , with a cell phone , people could roam with a phone across India or the world !! I think people in the telecom sector have believed that the craze for 3G would be the same as the first wave for cell phones !! But believe me , it will never happen . I have used cell phone since 1996 , when it was launched and paid an “Airtime’ of Rs.16.40 per minute + normal call rates !!
  3. The actual number of cell phone users are still as per what i call  the 1/3rd Rule ( we just have approximately 200 million cell phone users and not 654 Million, what the Telco’s & the government talk about  )
  4. Handsets to use the features of the 3G are not evolved as yet

Overall, paying and bidding for 3G was a lot easier than to manage the profits out of the networks using 3G. This will leave only two players doing something worthwhile ( Vodafone & “may be” , Mukesh Ambani ). Rest will have to work hard to avoid “Consolidation” of the industry

May be , some players will use 3G airwaves to enhance the voice quality

MNP ( Mobile number portability ) : MNP was delayed for obvious reasons !! But once the system is operational, it will crash due to the overload of the people applying for the same . There is a lot of anger amongst users for poor service quality . People will change the provider not for better service but to vent out anger at the existing service provider.  Some Telco’s will lose millions of users in months ( who gains in the long run is going to be a billion dollar question )  Time to wake up and take corrective action,  and innovate the services !!

Two big challenges 3G & MNP – Head ache of CEO’s of all Telco’s

3G might become the high speed to downfall – Thanks to the myopic government policies and over excitement of the bidders. May be , that’s the reason why MNC’s stayed out of the bidding. Perhaps, they will wait for some companies to bleed, and then, buy them out

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Email : office@rajendragupta.in

Wrong Economic priorities ,lop sided growth & flawed statistics


This is the follow up blog on my views dated 15th June 2010 & 27th June 2010 on the topic of “High GDP but low GDP per capita”.
Focussing on statistics , in April-May 2010, IIP witnessed a decent growth of 14 % but this did not cover some vital sectors . Only one sector , machinery and equipment , alone contributed 37 % to this high growth.  Transport equipment , metal products and mining contributed another 32 % to IIP growth. This implies that around 70 % growth of IIP was a result of high growth in just 4 out of a total of 19 sectors . Also , that these growth rates have an important factor ‘Low base effect’ . Like manufacturing sector achieved one of the highest growth rates of 19.4 % in April 2010 over a low base of 0.4 % in 2009. Similarly,  Capital goods sector’s high growth of 72.8% in April 2010 was over  a negative base of 6 % in 2009.
Time to balance out. Else , we will blame Greece, Italy , Europe , China , poor rainfall etc. Etc. for all our ills, forgetting that we never looked at “REAL India” for growth
Get the priorities right and actions STRAIGHT
BJP must be focussed more on right issues than routine struggles !!
Rajendra Pratap Gupta
Email : office@rajendragupta.in