Last week you made a statement that , ‘ 50 grams of potato chip are sold for Rs. 10 , and that this is made from just half potato’ ! Correct ! But again , Rahul don’t forget that the foreign companies no lesser than Wal-Mart ( likes of Pepsico ) are selling these expensive potato chips made from half a potato . So, does it not make more sense to check the growth of MNC retail chains / companies in India, who are buying cheap potato but ‘profiteering’ by selling chips at Rs. 10 per packet and the poor farmer is losing his produce at a throw away price  ?

Also, I wish to draw your attention towards the fact that currently the farmers are paid Rs. 1 per KG. I cannot understand why will ‘Profit & balance sheet obsessed’ Retail chains pay more to these poor farmers !

Simply stating that the middlemen would be removed and so farmers will get more, is a fallacious statement and conveys a lack of your ignorance about the realities. I think your party and Maya ji are fighting in the ‘aerial warfare’ with no touch of realities on the ground

I read another news that Rae Bareilly will get a commercial airport

Let me enlighten you about the Awadh region where your dad , mom & yourself have fought & won elections for decades

The Awadh region once ruled by nawabs and taluqdars and known as granary of India because of its fertile Gangetic plain. The area has given prime ministers to the country – Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. But most districts are still backward.

Population | 3.654 Cr

Per Capita Income | Rs 13,150.81

Faizabad division | Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, Sultanpur, Chhatrapati Shahuji Maharaj Nagar, Barabanki

Devipatan division | Gonda, Balrampur, Shravasti, Bahraich

Kanpur division | Kanpur, Ramabai Nagar, Auraiya, Farrukkhabad, Kannauj, Etawah

Lucknow division | Lakhimpur, Lucknow, Sitapur, Hardoi, Unnao, Rae Bareli

Now here is an interesting fact : Purulia is better off than Rae Bareli and Amethi and this was quoted in this article of Business Standard & Mid-Day. http://www.mid-day.com/poll2009/2009/apr/270409-Purulia-is-better-than-Amethi-Left-tells-Rahul.htm 

Let me walk you through a planning commission report on the per capita domestic product , and the NDP per capita in your family’s constituency.

Net domestic product (total and per capita) 2006-7 as per planning commission, Government of India

Source:http://planning.up.nic.in/Annual%20Plan%202010-11%20for%20website/Volume%20-%20I%20(%20Part-II)/Chapter-6.prn.pdf

 So clearly, getting an airport in Rae Barielly is a stupidity of the highest order, and that too, when it is clear that the region is back ward and people can barely survive a year without good rains leave alone travelling by air ! Please read the per capita income and check out if the poor people of that district can even afford the air port taxes leave along the airfare !

 I have visited Amethi and met up with dozens of self-help groups that you have formed in Amethi, and let me tell you that, you are just ‘Using’ the emotions of these poor people for becoming a member of Lok Sabha from Amethi

 While I was travelling to Amethi, none else than your own people (close associates) have informed me that the worst road in India is between Rae Bareilly and Sultanpur. Do I write more!

 Learn from Mr. Vajpayee , who started the Golden Quadrilateral project for the Aam Aaadmi and your government is more interested in airports, so that you can fly directly to Amethi rather than taking the 2 hour road drive to Amethi via Lucknow . You are wasting the hard earned money of common men like myself , who earn by hard work and pay 1/3^rd of our income as taxes to the government , and people like you go and throw it for things like building an airport at Rae Barielly !

 Gandhi Dynasty has taken India back ward by at least 30 years , and we need to stop it soon.

 I also don’t understand what is your intent for the so-called ‘Food Security Bill’ and ‘Job Guarantee Bill’. You will give fixed income to people so that they do not have to work and then you guarantee them food ? So it means that people will not have to work and earn the food , and will get it free ? Where will the Rs. 5 lac crore come from for these schemes ?  Will these things take India forward or your party men who will get the ration shops to distribute ( read divert ) grains and sell them to the open market, and finally , the poor Aam Aadmi will be left stranded on the road !

 Wake up Rahul ! Time will never forgive your people, and the elections will decide your fate not this ‘aerial warfare’  .

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

www.commonmansblog.com

It is time to change and bring a fresh look at the fundamentals of the economic policy & social disbursements 

I was speaking with one of my friend from abroad , and he was of the view that USA / Europe  is headed for the worst and India is no better off ! Hope it is not true !

Hoping that things will change miraculously !

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Today’s headline in The Times of India ( 6^th December 2011 ), “Centre bids to push Muslim quota ahead of polls in UP”

This news reminds me of  the 80’s , when Shri Rajiv Gandhi used to meet Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid before the elections,  for issuing a fatwa to Muslims to vote for Congress .

It is time that people realized the real communal party of India – AICC !

Rajendra Pratap Gupta 

Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

www.commonmansblog.com

It would be appropriate to call the year 2011, the “Year of Democracy & Democratic innovations”. Year 2011 witnessed the birth of an Idea, which will either take the democracies to a new high or a new low depending how the weapon is used. This year (2011) was certainly of political innovations driven by grass-roots and Internet, and has given one lasting lesson to politicians and rulers ‘ If you have a responsibility, behave responsibly’.

Year 2011 will pass as the most happening year in the history of politics and governance.  We saw how Julian Assange unmasked the United States of America using the power of net, and how the Arab Awakening started on the net and the decades old regimes fell, and How Anna Hazare used the power of media to force the government to accept its demands & commit to change. It is no ordinary feat using the ordinary and every day use mediums to bring about a lasting change. We saw many changes without large-scale wars and bloodshed. It is unbelievable, but it happened, and not just in India but across the World!

Back home, this year, we have seen how the fierce standoff between the Government and the ‘Social activists’ / ‘Civil Society Organizations’ moved the ‘Policy Paralysis’ to ‘Parliamentary paralysis’. For sure, It is clear that innovations are not just limited to science labs and companies, but even the small and big democracies are innovating and finding ways to be heard using the power of low-cost mediums and issues that affect the ‘Common Man’.  The ‘autocratic democracies’ have to learn to accept and function in accordance with the wishes of the people whom they are meant to serve

I have always believed that ‘Politicians’ once they acquire the ‘Power’ forget the basic philosophy of governance that ‘ Powers flows through them, and not from them’ and that, they are supposed to be ‘serving’ the people & not ‘Governing them’, using the power to transform lives rather than using their position for ‘I, ME  & MYSELF’

So what is in store for politicians and the civil society now?

It is clear that the public has a new weapon of mass destruction – Dissidence with Disobedience till things fall in place!

We have seen that the Indian Parliament did not function during the monsoon session due to various issues relating to scams and corruption, and now that FDI in retail has become a contentious issue and has brought the government to a halt within the parliament. The UPA government, which was earlier being haunted with ‘Policy Paralysis’, has now turned to ‘Parliamentary Paralysis’ for the nation. It is both good and bad for a democracy. As long as this ‘Tool’ is used for right reasons for the well-being of the masses, it will bring about positive change, and when it becomes a ‘Tool’ to pacify the ‘Ego’ of the opposition parties, this could be the worst weapon to bring down the democratic ethos of any nation. Since FDI, 2 G scam and Lok Pal bills have vast negative ramifications, and so the opposition and the ruling party will get ‘the benefit of doubt’ on this modus operandi, but if the opposition uses the same tool for each and every flimsy issue, then the public will directly answer during the elections. It is clearly being felt that, the public is getting enlightened, and watching the debate and taking a stand and backing it with ‘viral marketing’.  We will see the results much before 2014 and the Grand Finale in 2014.  It is time that those who have responsibility, must act responsibly to take this nation forward.  It goes without saying ‘ You can fool some people all the time, all people some time but not all people all the time’.

I was a part of the three-member team that authored the Election Manifesto for the Lok Sabha elections of BJP under the Chairmanship of Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi, and I wrote the first draft of the critical policy document for BJP, after discussions with various stakeholders for the Indian Economy from across the world. I personally made over 100’s of phone calls to people who had submitted their recommendations to BJP for the Lok Sabha elections manifesto, and people would have seen that BJP was the only party that not only incorporated the ‘Aam Aadmi’s aspirations, but have also struck to its commitment without any compromise.

I am reproducing the exact wordings for the Retail Trade as mentioned in the election manifesto of 2009 on page 23,

‘BJP understands the critical importance of retail trade in the context of employment and services provided by them, and thus favors a dominant role for the unincorporated sector in retail trade. Towards this end, it will not allow foreign direct investment in retail sector. After agriculture, the retail sector is the largest employer of nearly four crore people.

We will:

1. Adopt all necessary measures to safeguard the interest of small and tiny retail vendors
2. Ensure availability of working capital needs for such vendors through credit at not more than four percent interest
3. Study the feasibility of slab-based ‘Compound Tax’ for traders to free them from needless harassment and end corruption
4. Set up an empowered committee to recommend welfare measures, including pension scheme, for small traders

Today’s Economic Times carries an interview of Shri Yashwant Sinha ji and there is a question ‘The Government leadership, particularly the commerce minister, has said that BJP has shifted its policy on FDI in retail. And that the BJP is being opportunistic..

This is totally wrong question or statement from who-so-ever made it

I wish to highlight a few facts that were there in 2002, and in 2008, the global order had changed. Please note the following

• In 2002, the scene was different, when it came to global economies and India; USA was not taking about ‘protectionism’ but selling ‘globalization’.
• Full impact of globalization was clearly seen in the recession of 2008, and USA and Europe have clearly ‘tilted’ towards ‘Protectionist’ economic policies
• Retail trade was just starting up to organize in India in 2002, and by 2008, most of the Indian retailers even had to re-organize due to heavy losses

So, clearly, as the only national party with interest of the ‘Common Man’ at heart, BJP took a cautious call to help its small Kirana stores, than bringing 1000’s of foreign super markets to India at the cost of 12 million retailers! So the 2009 policy decision was the right decision for the nation and its ‘Common Man’, and those who say that BJP changed its stand, have forgotten the rule of ‘market dynamics’ and failed to keep their eyes open to the happenings across the world in the past seven years. A lot has changed in the first 10 years of this century, and a lot more will change in the next 10 years. It is imperative that we keep our heads low and overheads lower! BJP is the only party that can take this nation forward. Congress with all its USA / UK educated politicians can continue to sing the voice of their ‘Real Masters’ and take the economy to drain.

BJP’s stand on FDI in retail is a pragmatic approach with change in market dynamics,  and has no politics attached to it , whereas, the  Congress is pushing FDI in retail for its failure to check corruption and control inflation, and keep away the Lok Pal bill from the parliament  - That is the politics of Congress !

May the good sense prevail in the Congress and it’s so-called leadership!

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Healthcare I Retail I Rural Economy I Public Policy

www.commonmansblog.com

1. All retailers would anyways like to be present in towns where there is business – Government is simply conveying & supporting the business plans for these big retailers

2. All retailers would be willing to invest in such towns ( be it front end or back end ) and not in smaller towns where real infrastructure  investment is needed

3. This policy will lead to more migration from smaller towns to these big 53 towns . So property / real estate will go up and so will the prices of major services and goods and drive inflation higher

4.In fact , these retailers must first prove their success in the smaller towns and not the bigger towns,  and make investment in the infrastructure in smaller towns

The MNC retailers must not be allowed in bigger towns before they invest in smaller towns or let them have two- three  small towns and one big town if at all the FDI has to be allowed

Automatically , the real interest of these retailers will come in open !

Today’s Economic Times (26th November 2011) headline ‘ Govt Sells Multi-Brand FDI with best bargains’ gives a list of reasons why the government is supporting, (rather pushing FDI ) in retail. Let me put the Common Man’s view and take on each of these arguments

1.     It will create 10 million jobs in the next 3 years

A) According to the CII report in 2007, ‘India will need 10 to 12 million skilled workers every year for the next five years to meet the growing demand from the support services and there is a need for strong intervention to ensure the availability of the workforce’. So is the government trying to say that it is only the retail chains that will create 10 million jobs in the next three years?

B) Let us examine how many jobs Wal-Mart created in America & how many jobs did Wal-Mart create in India for the past 3 years of operations both as a wholesaler and as a retailer ? How many jobs our Indian retailers like Future group, Aditya Birla retail and Reliance retail created in the past 3 years?  We will clearly see that they did not even create a million jobs!

C) Also, government does not talk how many Kirana stores will shut down in the next 5 years and how many homes will be denied of a source of income ?

D) Wal-Mart or for that matter any retailer works on the least number of workers per square feet (lean management structures ) ,and so it will kill the 50 Kirana stores thereby get at least 250 people out of jobs and then create 50 jobs per super market.  Is this factored in the statement? I am willing to prove this in the current retail scenario leave alone the scenario when the foreign retailers come in?

 2.     Several billion dollars of investment in retail

A) If retail is a great business, the government banks should give loans from domestic financial institutions and let the homegrown retailers grow and build scale and size and let the profits remain in India. Why should we give 51 % of the ownership to foreign players, as these people will sell to Indians and take the profits out of our country.  USA / Europe will solve their income and earnings problems and India will get into problems of high inflation and more volatile stock market. Also, Indian retailer being less than 50 % of their share in the retail will become servants to these MNC chains under the current 51 % FDI norms.

B) Why did the government not start with 26 % FDI in multi brand retail for the first five years? Why suddenly start with 51 %. Please justify?

C) Often it has been quoted that the foreign retailers will bring technical know how to Indian retail market and boost the economies of scale and productivity? Which technical know how is the government talking, it needs to explain? I have been a COO / Board member of a major fortune 20 company’s retail operations in India, and I can tell you that these foreign retailers only bring money and no other expertise! They work on high profits, highly automated environment and lean man power structures.  So government’s reason of the technical know how is fallacious and is showing that we Indians do not understand retail. Let us look inward and see our home-grown retailers like Future group and Aditya Birla retail .They are certainly growing . Government must bring out a detailed white paper on the so-called ‘Technical Know how’ these foreign retailers bring to Indian retail market?

D) With these billions of dollars coming in India, India’s real estate will become expensive thereby, contributing to keep the inflations levels high for the medium class not just for real estate but for all the sectors

E) Also, these billions of dollars are not charities to India or Indians . These are investments by retailers which follow a ROI ( return on investment concept ) for every dollar spent. So for sure , they people will invest in retail one dollar and take out 10 dollars from India over the next couple of years . Retail is mostly done on inventory management which is on credit from vendors . These retailers follow a credit cycle which ranges from 15 days to over month . So with a double-digit profit margin , these retailers will only be investing one time into infrastructure and then make money without investing at all ,as all the inventory is on a credit cycle . ‘Sell and pay’ is the mantra for these FMCG retailers ! Even the space which is rented by these retailers is leased to product companies for hefty display charges. These retailers charge a heavy fee for listing products in its store before selling .Our policy makers , wake up and understand the real dangerous game of FDI in retail and don’t get carried away by the billions of dollars of investment . It is not true . One time investment by these retailers will be a life long profit for their parent company’s home country

3) Farmers will get more than 12-15 % of the consumer price they get for fruits and vegetables

A)    In reality, farmers will never get a higher price but will be exploited by these MNC Chains  .In fact, these MNC retailers will push in for stringent quality checks and other prohibitively expensive conditions for these farmers thereby, forcing the poor Indian farmer out of his livelihood. Most of the retailers will take to contract farming, and thus the farmers will be reduced to being laborers in the hands of these MNC chains.

B)    The History of these MNC chains has shown the these chains are out to squeeze blood out of their vendors and farmers will certainly be vendors for these MNC chains and nothing else . Wal-Mart and other retailers are facing dozens of cases of exploitation and gender bias in developed country where the legal system is strong . Imagine what will happen in our country ?

4) Consumers will get producers at Cheaper Prices, as competition will bring down the prices

A)    Even without competition the prices will come down by a few paisas or may be a few rupees, but, all these chains will increase the MRP  (Maximum retail prices) of the products, and so the consumer will end up paying more than what s/he pays today. Take an example of the MNC pharma companies. Since there is a ceiling of price increase by 10 %, so every year the pharma companies increase the prices by 9-9.5 % and thereby, circumventing the price increase regulations.

B)    It is clear that the consumer is not a winner, no one pay’s from its pocket OR profits to the consumer. If there is a price increase on the input costs, the same is passed on to the as an increased MRP or the quantity is reduced for the same price. So the consumer’s pocket is always ripped apart by these retailers

5) 30 % mandatory sourcing from small-scale sector will help small industry

A)    This has not been a convincing argument, so we are trying to tell that a small company out of Varanasi will compete with HUL and win? Come on Dr.Manmohan Singh, are you trying to fool Indians? I understand that you studied at Oxford, doesn’t mean that rest of the Indians are going to get carried away with these statements

B)    Also, these MNC chains will put conditions that are either too stringent to be complied to or prohibitively expensive to be implemented by these SME’s, and so finally, these chains will find a reason to evade buying from these SME’s. Also, that the SME’s are not just limited to India, but across the world, so probably, Chinese SME’s would benefit more than Indian SME’s

C)    These retailers charge a heavy fee for listing products in its store before selling. How will SME’s afford that ? The fee currently for Indian retailers varies from few thousand to over a lac for products for companies . SME’s will never be able to benefit from these chains even if they are able sell to them, as they will pay for listing and then cry for the payment – which will depend on the vendor payment cycle varying for weeks to months and small vendors (SME’s ) cannot survive this big box retail game

6) 70 % of retail is in food items and these are mostly sourced locally

A) If 70 % of the retail is in food items and this is sourced locally, why allow 51 % of the profits to go out of India? So FDI should not have crossed more than 30 %!

B) Local Indian retailers (existing Kirana stores ) must be trained to deal in these food items and deliver better value for the country and its economy.

C) This argument of the government goes against its own policy. So whereas, 70 % of the products would be food items, 51 % profits from these categories would go out of our country, thereby, clearing pushing the inflation higher perpetually for the next couple of decades. As there will be less money in our country chasing more goods ( as money would have found its way to parent MNC)  – Simple economics Mr. Kaushik Basu!

7) Ikea already sourcing 30 % of inputs from India

A) So if Ikea is already sourcing 30 % inputs from India, let other chains also do the same before starting their shop in India.

B) If these MNC chains buy from India and sell in India and take 51% of the profits abroad, what is India’s gain? The government must come out clean on this?

8) Approval only after investors meet all conditions, including 50 % investment in back end

A) This statement of investment in backend is a foolish statement. Already 100 % FDI is allowed in wholesale, why justify it for retail and link it up? Let these retailers first invest in back-end for the first five years and next five years invest in front end

B) Government has FCI (Food corporation of India) godowns and what is the government doing for enhancing the efficiency of this biggest warehousing corporation – Can this FCI not  become the Cash and Carry for small retailers ? A drastic improvement in supply chain of FCI godowns can bring down the wastage of food grains by hundreds of tons if not thousands of tons. Please pursue the project of Mr.Atal Behari Vajpayee of Golden Quadrilateral and link up all the FCI godowns, and start a national Agriculture produce transport corporation to start weekly transport during the harvesting season from the farms to FCI and nearest towns. The farmers co-operative and IFFCO should manage this. With this, farmers will not only get good prices but the wastage will be reduced substantially. Why are you looking at FDI to solve this simple problem of inflation . This can not only solve the inflation problem but also improve productivity at all levels , create more jobs ( may be , millions of low & middle-income but high productivity jobs ) and reduce inflation .

C) Learn from ‘operation flood’ by AMUL and how it solved the shortage of milk problem of our country and created a world-class brand. See what M.S.Swaminathan did with ‘Green Revolution’ to increase the production of grains in our country. Please do not justify that foreign retailers will help you bring down inflation. Remember that ‘Inflation is reversible but FDI is not’ and do not sell our country to foreigners for a short-term gain of a few billion dollars to our economy. This is anyway not the dollars to our economy, but the investment of dollars to take back dollars. I am sure that all these MNC chains a ROI (return of investment) method of calculating the investment returns. So I wish to ask our government that what does the ‘retail FDI dollar’ bring to India, which Indian government cannot do with its own money?

9) Government will have the first right over procurement of farm produce

A) This statement has no value. Government has shown no concern for farmers except considering them as voters and leaving them at the mercy of rain gods.

Questions that the government must answer

1. What has the government spent to train local Kirana stores in the past five years?  When yesterday only the government asked for Rs.56000 crore of the tax payers money despite a huge budget deficit, why did it not ask for even a Rs. 1000 crore for retailers training and up gradation?
2. Why did the government not start with FDI in retail at 26 %? Why suddenly at 51 %? Has the government become a lobbyist for MNC chains?
3. Has the government done its own independent studies for the impact of retail chains on Kirana stores?
4. The biggest plank of allowing the FDI is that inflation will come down. So despite allowing FDI, if the inflation does not come down, will the government revoke FDI in retail? Does that rider appear in the CP (Condition Precedents) for allowing FDI in retail?
5. Government needs to prove that FDI in retail can create million jobs every year. How and why, and which retailer will do that. All this must be put in the business case for allowing FDI? Why is government becoming the spokesperson for these MNC retail chains? What is the deal?
6. Where and how much wills the retailers invest in back-end? This has not been specified?
7. Why has the government not capped the retail margins of foreign retailers in India?
8. See point 5 B, why have women self-help groups / handicrafts been excluded from being the beneficiaries of the retail entry
9. Why are retailers not mandated to invest in retail training ?
10. More questions to follow

Rajendra Pratap Gupta

Healthcare I Retail I Public Policy

Email:  office@rajendragupta.in , office.rajendra@gmail.com